Author Archive | Thorsten

Race Posts – Explaining the Types and Data

TriRating’s main feature is data about Ironman-distance races and my analysis of these results. This post describes the different types of race posts and the data in them.

Entry List

This is usually my first post about a specific race. A couple of weeks out there is information about which Professionals have registered for a race. At this point, the list is not final yet – there are still some more athletes that can register, and some athletes that registered may withdraw before race day.

Here’s a sample screenshot:


The list shows the Pros that have entered a race, ordered by their bib number (when already available), their KPR points (if it’s an Ironman® race) or their last name.

The following details are shown:

  • Name: The full name of the athletes (first name and last name )
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete (sometimes different from the official lists that often show where the athletes is currently residing)
  • KPR points: The total Kona Qualifying points the athlete has accumulated at the time I publish the entry list
  • KPR races: The number of Ironman and 70.3 races that the athlete’s KPR points are coming from. For example, “3+1” for Harry Wiltshire means that he already has three Ironman races and one 70.3 race in his total. (Remember that only up to four races – up to three IMs and up to two 70.3s – can contribute to an athlete’s total.) The points in brackets show the lowest scoring race from each category, so “(235/500)” for Harry mean that his worst IM score is 235 points, and his worst 70.3 score is 500 points – these are scores that could get bumped from the total when he tries to add another race to his total.
Depending on the information available, the Entry List may also show
  • Bib number
  • Age of the athlete on race day
I won’t be publishing entry lists for all races, as not all races make this information available in a timely fashion. Ironman is usually posting Entry Lists roughly four weeks out from a race.


After a race has been closed for entry by Professionals, a start list is posted by the race organizer, typically two weeks before a race. Late entries are possible but pretty rare, late withdrawals are much more common. Also, athletes often register for a number of races within a short time, giving them a back-up race in case something happens in the first race they target.

Here’s a sample seeding (from the female race at IM New Zealand 2017):


This list shows many more details than an entry list:

  • Rank: The expected place of this athlete based on everyone’s previous results (and every athlete on the start list starting and finishing the race) and their corresponding expected time (see below).
  • Bib: The bib number as assigned by the race (if the information in available)
  • Name: The full name of the athlete (first name and last name)
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete (sometimes different from the official lists that often show where the athletes is currently residing)
  • Expected Time: The time I expect an athlete to finish on the course of the race, based on the athlete’s previous results and how fast or how slow the course is, also favoring results from the course.
    The background color shows who are the fastest athletes (dark red – expected time within 12 minutes of the projected winner) and who are close (lighter red – expected time within 25 minutes).
  • Rating: The weighted average of an athlete’s previous performances. This is more stable than the expected time (i.e. older results are not discounted quite as much) and course-neutral. For example, Yvonne Van Vlerken has a better rating than Meredith Kessler, but as Meredith has performed extremely well in Taupo, her expected time is the fastest.
  • Expected Swim, Bike and Run: Similar to the Expected Time, but broken down for each of the legs and the athlete’s strengths and weaknesses. Again, the background color is used to show the expected fastest athletes in each of the legs.
  • Consistency: The consistency shows how often an athlete has performed to the expected times. The first number (e.g. “60%” for Meredith) indicates how often the athlete was close to the expected time (roughly within 20 minutes), the second number (“+10%”) how often she was faster and the third number (“-30%”) how often she had a sub-par race (including DNFs). The last number, shown in brackets (“(26)”) shows the total number of IM-distance races an athlete has started. You can find a longer discussion of the consistency in this post.
  • Overall: The place the athlete has in the overall rankings. Numbers shown in brackets (e.g. “(52)” for Emma Bilham) indicate where an athlete would be ranked, but that he/she does not currently have a valid rating (requiring one finish within the last year and at least three finishes).

Result Analysis

Once the race has been completed, I publish the results with my analysis of how the athlete performed, usually within a day or two after the race has been held.

Here’s an example from the female race at Challenge Wanaka 2017:


The following details are listed:

  • Rank: The position the athlete finished in the professional race.
  • Name: The full name of the athlete, depending on how the athlete has performed relative to the expected time and the conditions on race, the name is shown in red (more than 3 minutes slower), in green (more than three minutes faster) or black (within three minutes of the expected time).
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete
  • Swim, Bike and Run: The times for the swim, bike and run legs, again colored according to how well the athlete performed on race day. The background color is used to indicate who had the fastest time in each leg (dark green) and who was close (lighter green).
  • Time: The “clock time” of an athlete’s finish at this race. A “DNF” indicates that the athlete didn’t finish the race, the splits are given as far as the athlete has completed the race.
  • Diff to expected: The difference of the total time of an athlete compared to the expected time (based on the conditions on race day).
  • Prize Money: The prize money the athlete has earned for his finish in the race.

Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Entry List

Male Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Matthew Russell USA 5120 3+0 (1280/0)
Harry Wiltshire GBR 3040 3+1 (235/500)
Marc Duelsen GER 2540 2+0
Matt Hanson USA 2110 1+2 (960/400)
Michael Weiss AUT 1945 2+1
Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 1375 1+0
Adam Gordon AUS 1165 1+2 (960/90)
Todd Skipworth AUS 1165 0+2 (0/540)
Trevor Delsaut FRA 990 1+1
Alexander Schilling GER 405 1+1
Barrett Brandon USA 340 1+1
Paul Ambrose AUS 320 0+2 (0/140)
Stephen Kilshaw CAN 105 0+2 (0/20)
Colin Laughery USA 88 2+0
Patrick Schuster USA 40 1+0
Matt Shanks USA 32 2+0
Jarrod Shoemaker USA 5 1+0
Christopher Baird USA
Blake Becker USA
James Capparell USA
Bas Diederen NED
Nils Frommhold GER

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Lauren Brandon USA 2755 1+2 (1600/515)
Darbi Roberts USA 2540 2+0
Celine Schaerer SUI 2485 2+1
Alicia Kaye USA 2415 1+2 (340/640)
Malindi Elmore CAN 2100 1+2 (1280/180)
Jocelyn McCauley USA 2000 1+0
Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 1830 2+0
Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 1600 1+0
Tine Deckers BEL 920 0+1
Annett Finger GER 855 1+2 (230/280)
Kelly Williamson USA 545 1+1
Jodie Robertson USA 450 1+0
Caroline Livesey GBR 345 0+2 (0/125)
Francesca Sanjana GBR 115 0+1
Jessica Smith USA 40 1+0
Amber Ferreira USA

Ironman South Africa 2017 (April 2nd) – Entry List

Male Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Ben Hoffman USA 6375 1+1
Frederik Van Lierde BEL 5100 2+0
Boris Stein GER 4250 1+0
Harry Wiltshire GBR 3040 3+1 (235/500)
Josh Amberger AUS 2115 0+2 (0/840)
David McNamee GBR 1900 1+0
Johann Ackermann GER 1360 1+1
Ivan Risti ITA 1280 1+0
James Cunnama ZAF 980 1+1
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 960 1+0
Michael Ruenz GER 900 1+1
Mario De Elias ARG 880 0+2 (0/240)
Giulio Molinari ITA 720 1+0
Drew Scott USA 625 0+2 (0/280)
Kyle Buckingham ZAF 540 0+1
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 450 1+0
Eneko Llanos ESP 340 1+0
Christian Kramer GER 320 1+1
Roman Deisenhofer GER 305 1+0
Andrej Vistica CRO 285 1+1
Balazs Csoke HUN 260 1+1
Jonathan Shearon USA 175 1+1
Joe Skipper GBR 155 1+0
Jan Van Berkel SUI 145 0+1
Urs Mueller SUI 135 1+1
Freddy Lampret ZAF 40 0+2 (0/5)
Toumy Degham FRA 35 0+1
Diego Van Looy BEL 20 0+1
Emanuele Ciotti ITA 2 1+0
Fredrik Backson SWE 0 0+0
Erik-Simon Strijk NED 0 0+0
Carlos Aznar gallego ESP
Vinicius Canhedo BRA
Bekim Christensen DEN
Greg Close USA
Victor Del Corral ESP
Nils Frommhold GER
Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA
Valentin Zasypkin RUS

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Daniela Ryf SUI 10935 1+2 (8000/750)
Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 6095 1+2 (5250/345)
Mareen Hufe GER 3250 2+1
Astrid Stienen GER 3040 1+2 (2000/435)
Laura Siddall GBR 2760 1+2 (1280/640)
Katharina Grohmann GER 2240 2+0
Danielle Mack USA 2170 2+0
Jeanne Collonge FRA 1880 1+1
Tine Holst DEN 1700 2+1
Annah Watkinson ZAF 1625 1+1
Nikki Bartlett GBR 1405 1+1
Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 1405 1+2 (880/125)
Kirsty Jahn CAN 1125 0+2 (0/500)
Natascha Schmitt GER 1125 1+2 (540/255)
Jodie Cunnama GBR 1090 1+1
Kate Comber GBR 855 1+1
Alexandra Tondeur BEL 805 1+1
Kristin Moeller GER 775 1+1
Diane Luethi SUI 720 1+0
Rachel McBride CAN 720 1+0
Susie Cheetham GBR 640 0+1
Lina-Kristin Schink GER 635 2+0
Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 305 1+0
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 235 1+0
Rahel Bellinga NED 125 1+1
Camille Deligny FRA 0 0+0
Julia Gajer GER 0 0+0
Manon Genet FRA 0 0+0
Steph Corker CAN

Challenge Wanaka 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Last year’s race in Wanaka saw some strong winds, even leading to a few crashes on the bike. This year’s conditions were very calm, with the adjustment of 3:35 being the quickest in the last years, roughly 14 minutes faster than last year. (The new course rating is -5:01.)

Both race winners, Dougal Allan and Yvonne Van Vlerken, posted new course records, beating times from 2010 (Richard Ussher on the male side) and 2013 (Gina Crawford for the females). Dougal also posted a new bike record (4:27, improving his own time from two years ago by three minutes), and while Yvonne was under the old bike record, Laura Siddall was even a few seconds quicker – her 4:58 was almost ten minutes faster than Gina Crawford’s time from 2013.

Male Race Results

Mike Phillips was not a name frequently mentioned as a contender, but he was leading the race after the swim and in the front bike group with the two Lukes (Bell and McKenzie) and Dougal Allan. At 135k Dougal put down the hammer and by T2 built a lead of three minutes. He also proved to be the fastest runner, steadily increasing his lead and winning in course record time. Mike finished in second, keeping the distance at just under six minutes. Luke Bell was more than fifteen minutes back in third, but as he said on Twitter “at least I beat the NZ boys to popping the cork!”


Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Dougal Allan NZL 00:54:32 04:27:37 03:00:18 08:26:38 -01:37 NZD 14,500
2 Mike Phillips NZL 00:50:21 04:34:32 03:03:18 08:32:00 n/a NZD 9,000
3 Luke Bell AUS 00:50:27 04:36:48 03:10:27 08:42:50 -04:21 NZD 5,000
4 Allister Caird AUS 01:01:17 04:38:36 03:02:37 08:46:43 -46:15 NZD 3,000
5 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:50:24 04:49:18 03:04:39 08:48:45 -08:36 NZD 2,500
6 Simon Billeau FRA 00:55:35 04:45:26 03:13:16 08:59:50 03:43 NZD 1,500
7 Nathan Miller AUS 00:53:27 05:29:56 03:49:43 10:23:34 n/a
Luke McKenzie AUS 00:51:03 04:38:10 DNF
Per Bittner GER 00:50:32 04:50:41 DNF
Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:50:22 DNF

Female Race Results


This year’s race was very similar to last year – Yvonne and Laura were within a few seconds for the whole day, frequently trading the lead. It was very late in the run until Yvonne built a two-minute lead, and she stared her 2017 season with a win. Laura almost closed the gap towards the end – it’s the third time she fought a hard battle with Yvonne in the last two seasons (Wanaka 2016 – 3:29, Roth 2016 – 2:24, and now Wanaka 2017 0:27).

It just seems to  be a question of time until she’s able to get her first big win on the IM distance – maybe in their rematch in two weeks at New Zealand? At 70.3 Taupo in December she showed that she’s not afraid to mix it up with five-time IM New Zealand champion Meredith Kessler as well.

Third place went to Emma Bilham who was leading after the swim and had the fastest run of the day, but lost too much time on the bike to contend for more than the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:02 04:59:29 03:14:11 09:15:44 03:05 NZD 14,500
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:58:00 04:58:58 03:14:57 09:16:11 -12:00 NZD 9,000
3 Emma Bilham SUI 00:54:22 05:19:34 03:12:07 09:30:39 06:51 NZD 5,000
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:00:21 05:27:37 03:25:18 09:58:58 -06:05 NZD 3,000
5 Simone Maier GER 01:07:37 05:13:18 03:34:45 10:03:06 17:25 NZD 2,500
6 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:00:28 05:29:07 03:33:18 10:08:36 -04:37 NZD 1,500
7 Julia Grant NZL 01:00:26 05:35:02 03:37:29 10:17:22 08:29
8 Bonnie Van Wilgenburg GBR 01:17:32 05:35:03 03:40:42 10:38:55 n/a
9 Yvette Grice GBR 00:58:03 05:51:45 03:49:15 10:45:01 41:10
Julia Viellehner GER 01:07:03 DNF

Photos by Phil Walter/Getty Images, Copyright Getty Images, 2017


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