Author Archive | Thorsten

IM New Zealand 2011 – Analyzing the Results

This Saturday, Cameron Brown won IM New Zealand for an amazing 10th time. The women’s race was an unexpected win by Sam Warriner.

image (Photos from news article at Ironman website.)

Here is a closer look at the results.

Conditions

The conditions on race day sounded really bad – there was a lot of rain, probably also pretty cold weather. While these horrible sounding conditions are sometimes actually quite good for fast racing, this was not the case for New Zealand:

  • Course Rating prior to race: 18:39
  • Adjustment for 2011 race: 7:06

This means that New Zealand is usually about a quarter hour faster than IM Hawaii (which has a course rating of 2:50), but this year was about 11:30 minutes slower than usual. This is pretty much in line with the horrible race conditions.

Men’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:07 08:29:55
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:41:54 08:34:29
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:45:36 08:39:17
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:49:34 08:47:01
5 Scott Curry CAN 08:50:44 09:32:03
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:30 09:00:44
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:12:16 09:20:32
8 Gavin Scott NZL 09:15:10 n/a
9 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:25:39 09:15:47
10 James Bowstead NZL 09:39:38 09:42:59
11 Brent Foster NZL 09:46:45 09:33:27
12 Scott McGregor NZL 09:52:32 n/a
13 Kerry Weeks NZL 10:04:24 n/a
14 Rich Munro AUS 10:53:20 09:33:45

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Among the top athletes, Cameron was the one that was least affected by the conditions and landed a really convincing win. Petr Vabrousek was also even better than his expected time, but was passed by Scott Curry who really improved on his prior results.

Women’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:28:24 n/a
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:31:33 09:00:22
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:53 09:28:29
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:40:01 10:06:56
5 Belinda Harper NZL 09:40:33 n/a
6 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:49:02 n/a
7 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:50:04 n/a
8 Renee Lane AUS 10:01:59 n/a
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:16:48 10:19:06
10 Jo Carrel NZL 10:54:31 10:50:28

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Previously unrated Sam Warriner pulled off a surprise win. Her first rated race would put her into a Top10 spot in the rankings (but I require a minimum of two rated races). (I think I read somewhere that she has done a previous IM-distance race. Does anyone know where? Please let me know in the comments.)

Top rated Mirinda Carfrae had two flats on the bike, and she just edged out Jo Lawn. Kate Bevilaqua and the the other previously unrated women also performed well, posting solid times and provided some close racing.

Looking ahead to IM New Zealand

Since my last post, I’ve worked a bit more on the results and ratings I have on file for IM New Zealand. Here is the full data!

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:37:51 10
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:42:44 15
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:46:24 25
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:55:41 39
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:30 67
6 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:17 126
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:27:59 139
8 Scott Curry CAN 09:40:52 191
9 Brent Foster NZL 09:43:01 196
10 Rich Munro AUS 09:43:11 197
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:46:31 213
12 James Bowstead NZL 09:52:15 238
13 John Carey AUS 09:59:37 269
14 Kerry Weeks NZL unrated n/a
15 Scott McGregor NZL unrated n/a
16 Gavin Scott NZL unrated n/a
17 Matt Burgess NZL unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:08:06 2
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:38:39 11
3 Sarah Pollett AUS 10:03:11 45
4 Britta Martin NZL 10:13:15 58
5 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:16:25 66
6 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:26:58 85
7 Donna Phelan USA 10:30:50 92
8 Desiree Ficker USA 10:51:22 121
9 Amanda Balding USA 11:22:07 142
10 Jo Carrel NZL unrated n/a
11 Laura-Clare Whelan NZL unrated n/a
12 Michelle Mitchell AUS unrated n/a
13 Samantha Warriner NZL unrated n/a
14 Hannah Lawrence NZL unrated n/a
15 Kirsten Molloy AUS unrated n/a
16 Michelle Bremer NZL unrated n/a
17 Renee Lane AUS unrated n/a
18 Belinda Harper NZL unrated n/a

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:42:00 08:37:51 17
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:36:49 08:37:08 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:49:28 08:37:11 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:40:39 08:34:38 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:28:44 08:33:14 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:47:00 08:34:30 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:43:20 08:30:16 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:29:12 08:25:01 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:24:31 08:22:28 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:38:23 08:46:17 08:42:44 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:30:00 08:45:12 08:41:20 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:34:45 08:30:41 08:39:10 11
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:25:37 08:48:31 08:48:31 2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:33:24 08:46:24 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:36:32 08:52:05 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 09:03:31 09:01:17 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:58:19 08:58:19 34

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:55:41 08:55:41 4

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:03 09:04:30 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:04:37 09:05:16 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:55:00 09:05:19 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:56:37 09:06:17 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:04:34 09:07:15 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:36 09:07:31 50
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:07:45 09:06:19 6
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:46:39 09:06:09 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:51:26 09:08:26 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:07:20 09:10:39 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 09:02:17 09:11:09 2
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:18:46 09:12:37 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:49:54 09:11:33 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 09:00:01 09:03:30 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:14:56 09:04:20 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:42 09:01:19 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 09:00:48 09:03:03 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:17:43 09:04:20 54
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:20:08 09:24:17 48
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:46 09:25:39 51
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:35:20 09:28:20 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:25:50 09:24:58 48
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:22:46 09:24:20 62
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:02:49 09:27:59 09:27:59 5

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:19:39 09:28:11 09:40:52 52
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:57 09:04:59 09:42:53 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:20:09 09:31:30 09:49:55 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:04:45 09:30:00 09:53:21 7
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:52:36 09:13:10 09:58:31 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:18:50 09:36:59 10:09:23 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 10:30:03 11:00:24 10:19:15 51
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:32:04 11:47:59 10:03:41 30
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:45:12 09:03:14 09:03:19 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:55:57 09:03:24 09:03:24 5

Results for Brent Foster (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:15:13 10:43:05 09:43:01 22
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:02:10 09:18:35 09:08:39 15
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:54:41 08:59:56 09:03:09 34
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:52:35 09:06:31 09:06:31 5

Results for Rich Munro (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:26:18 09:43:11 09:43:11 8

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:27:12 09:46:31 16
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:53:11 09:53:28 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:38:24 09:53:34 21
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:17:04 10:01:19 34
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:44:23 09:51:37 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 25

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:02:46 09:18:56 09:52:15 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:06:43 10:33:22 10:17:13 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:39:03 09:58:14 09:58:14 14

Results for John Carey (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:42:16 09:59:37 09:59:37 10

Results for Kerry Weeks (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Scott McGregor (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gavin Scott (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:58:36 09:06:49 09:08:06 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:13:59 09:09:37 09:09:37 2

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:52:01 09:38:39 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:31:07 09:36:35 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:30:13 09:37:28 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:48:38 09:38:47 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:48:23 09:36:51 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:40:26 09:34:15 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:34:03 09:32:40 4
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:38:35 09:32:14 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:37:09 09:29:40 7
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:20:20 09:25:06 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:30:14 1

Results for Sarah Pollett (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:45:44 10:03:11 10:03:11 4

Results for Britta Martin (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:47:11 10:04:41 10:13:15 5
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:18 10:23:19 10:23:19 8

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:28:58 10:16:25 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 10:04:59 10:13:18 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:36:37 10:15:56 7
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:44:43 10:07:09 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:08:38 10:17:03 25
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:07:42 10:13:41 10:23:00 31
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:32:48 10:32:48 2

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:58 10:26:58 35

Results for Donna Phelan (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:20 10:28:46 10:30:50 33
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:30:38 10:33:41 10:33:41 35

Results for Desiree Ficker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:07:48 11:11:02 10:51:22 42
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:56:09 10:19:11 10:47:42 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 11:09:30 11:18:12 10:54:05 7
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:40:43 10:48:55 10:47:15 47
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:24:02 09:28:19 10:46:42 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:56 10:02:39 11:17:53 4
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 14:01:55 14:07:39 12:01:06 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:48:26 09:48:26 09:48:26 2

Results for Amanda Balding (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:44:06 11:22:07 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:39:05 11:32:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:21:47 11:30:32 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:49:33 11:58:38 11:35:14 56
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 11:11:20 11:11:20 18

Results for Jo Carrel (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Laura-Clare Whelan (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Samantha Warriner (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Hannah Lawrence (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kirsten Molloy (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Bremer (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Renee Lane (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Ironman New Zealand – Quick Preview

I’m preparing a longer post looking at the upcoming IM New Zealand race. For now, I have two short teasers.

A Look at the Course

Taupo has a course rating of 20:32 – compared to Kona’s 3:49. It is one of the quicker courses – about as fast as IM Arizona, but still slower than IM Florida by about 5 minutes. While the toad conditions on the bike are probably not too good, the course is still reasonably flat and there are no extreme weather conditions – in fact the climate sounds almost perfect for a good race. (Of course you have the exception with the 2006 race, where strong winds even led to a canceled swim and a shortened race.)

The course rating of 20:32 means that on an average day Cameron Brown (rated 8:37:41) is expected to finish around 8:17:19.

Male Pro Participants

Based on the list from the IM New Zealand website, here are the male professional participants and their current ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:37:51
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:42:44
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:46:24
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:55:41
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:30
6 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:17
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:27:59
8 Scott Curry CAN 09:40:52
9 Brent Foster NZL 09:43:01
10 Rich Munro AUS 09:43:11
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:46:31
12 James Bowstead NZL 09:52:15
13 John Carey AUS 09:59:37
14 Matt Burgess NZL unrated
15 Gavin Scott NZL unrated
16 Scott McGregor NZL unrated
17 Kerry Weeks NZL unrated

Based on the ratings, Cameron Brown still has to be considered the favorite. However, Terenzo Bozzone and Mathias Hecht are not so far off that Cam can be certain to win for the 10th time. After these three athletes, Keegan Williams and Petr Vabrousek may be good enough for a podium finish if one of the top 3 ranked athletes run into issues. After the top 5, the field is not very deep and the ratings are quite a bit slower than the top athletes.

There will be more ….

As noted above, I’m working on some more information:

  • predictions for the women’s race
  • details on the results I have on file for the participants

Please let me know in the comments if there is something else that you’d like to know and that I may be able to answer by analyzing the athlete’s previous results.

TTR – Adding female Pros and IM Florida

I’ve put some more work into TTR – Thorsten’s Triathlon Rating. With IM Florida I added a third course (and six more races from 2005 to 2010) and I also managed to include female pros.

The amount of data is getting quite impressive by now:

  • 3 courses (IM Hawaii, IM Arizona and IM Florida)
  • 19 races (6 times each for Hawaii and Florida, 7 races for Arizona)
  • 632 athletes (412 male and 220 female)
  • 1,513 individual results

One thing that I have to think of now is to make sure that I’m working on high quality data – I was able to catch a few obvious problems, but I have to do some more systematic work on that.

An interesting little tidbit: The athlete with the most results in my database is Petr Vabrousek with 14 results! He’s also way ahead of the next athletes, who “only” have 9 races (Christophe Bastie, Michael Lovato, Heather Gollnick and Tamara Kozulina).

Adding IM Florida and new male TOP10

Adding IM Florida did not require any changes in the methodology. So the changes in the TOP10 are a reflection of the Florida results:

  • As was to be expected, IM Florida is another fast course, in fact it is even faster than Arizona (course rating: 25:53, compared to 20:38 for Arizona and 3:57 for Hawaii)
  • Dirk Bockel moved a few spots down with his 8:21 in Florida 2010 (which was adjusted to an 8:44).
  • Raynard Tissink fell out of the top 10 – his two great Kona results were joined by a not-too-stellar 8:40 in Florida 2009. He was replaced by Rasmus Henning.

Here is the new (male) TOP10 list:

Rank Name Rating # Races
1 McCormack, Chris 08:20:57 5
2 Alexander, Craig 08:20:58 4
3 Raelert, Andreas 08:24:05 3
4 Llanos, Eneko 08:29:15 5
5 Al-Sultan, Faris 08:29:40 6
6 Bockel, Dirk 08:34:04 3
7 Bracht, Timo 08:34:58 6
8 Vanhoenacker, Marino 08:35:47 5
9 Henning, Rasmus 08:35:58 3
10 Potts, Andy 08:36:37 3

Macca is still in the #1 spot, but it’s getting very close between him and Crowie.

Adding female Pros: Women’s TOP10

The main challenge this time was adding the females into the mix. I wanted the male results to be pretty stable and not change much when the women were added into the mix. It was clear that there would be some small changes in the course ratings and adjustments for the race, but I wanted these to be pretty small. In order to achieve this, I had to play a bit around with the calculations until I settled on a slightly changed algorithm. (The change is a bit technical: The adjustments are calculated as a percentage of race time instead of absolute change in seconds. In order to show a course rating as a time, that percentage has to be changed back to a time by applying it to a 9 hour race.)

With this new results and updated algorithm, here are the women’s TOP10:

Rank Name Rating Last Race # Races Total Rank
1 Wellington, Chrissie 09:01:40 IM Arizona on 2010-11-21 4 54
2 Carfrae, Mirinda 09:07:51 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 67
3 Van Vlerken, Yvonne 09:28:09 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 114
4 Jones, Michellie 09:29:42 IM Arizona on 2008-04-13 4 119
5 Steffen, Caroline 09:32:19 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 133
6 Berasategui, Virginia 09:33:21 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 4 136
7 McGlone, Samantha 09:34:09 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 4 141
8 Thuerig, Karin 09:35:33 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 146
9 Preston, Rebecca 09:35:55 IM Hawaii on 2007-10-13 2 148
10 Lawn, Joanna 09:38:58 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 6 153

The first two spots are not a surprise – Chrissie and Rinnie are currently the top athletes. What is interesting is the large gap to the next spots – more than 20 minutes! For me, Michellie in #4 was a bit of a surprise – her last race was in 2008 and to me I did not really think of her as an active athlete that might show up in the ratings.

Another interesting thing is the Total Rank that shows how the females would rank in all athletes (i.e. male and female). Chrissie, for example would be ranked #54 – which means that there are 53 males that have a better rating than she has. Even if some of her great results from Roth are not in the database yet, it’s hard to see her crack the Top10 in Hawaii or the male ratings.

Adding a second course: IM Arizona

In the last week, I’ve worked to include a second course into my triathlon ratings. As I want to include races as the year progresses, I wanted to work with races that have been between IM Hawaii in October and today. As far as I know, these races were IM Arizona, IM Florida, IM Cozumel and IM Western Australia. Again, Craig Harris helped by providing race results for Arizona and Florida. For no particular reason, I chose to start with IM Arizona.

Course Ratings – Comparing Courses

The methodology I outlined previously worked well for including the second course. It was very interesting to see the adjustments for IM Arizona:

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2005 n/a 0 n/a
2006 567 15 567
2007 1052 15 810
2008 1149 14 923
2008 1289 24 1014
2009 1575 21 1126
2010 1335 23 1161

(Note: There were two races of IM Arizona in 2008 as they switched from April to November.)

The adjustment for IM Hawaii hovered around 0, the final course rating is 5. Comparing this to the course rating for
IM Arizona of 1161, it means that IM Arizona is 1156 seconds faster than IM Hawaii (almost 20 minutes – or 19m:16s to be exact).

To put this in another way: Chrissie Wellington’s blazingly fast 8:36:13 in Arizona 2010 is the statistical equivalent of an 8:54 in Kona – a bit faster than Mirinda Carfrae’s winning time of 8:58:36, but still short of her own course record in Kona. Of course, there are a lot of ifs and buts with these comparisons, but I really like to play around with the numbers without taking them too serious.

New Top10 Rated Athletes

Here are the new Top10 Athletes (based on IM Hawaii and IM Arizona):

Rank Name Rating
1 McCormack, Chris 08:17:07
2 Alexander, Craig 08:17:58
3 Raelert, Andreas 08:21:26
4 Bockel, Dirk 08:23:59
5 Tissink, Raynard 08:25:32
6 Llanos, Eneko 08:25:55
7 Al-Sultan, Faris 08:26:08
8 Vanhoenacker, Marino 08:30:22
9 Bracht, Timo 08:31:56
10 Potts, Andy 08:33:01

There are two main changes compared to the last rankings. Timo Bracht has entered the Top10 – this will be analyzed in the next section. The most obvious change, however, is that we have a new number one: Chris McCormack. Andreas Raelert has moved down from 1st to 3rd. This is a “result” of his performance in IM Arizona in 2008. Even though he won his first IM in 8:14, as this was on a fast course the adjusted result is “only” an 8:35. This “bad” result brings down his rating quite a bit. It’ll be interesting to see how his rating will change when I include IM Germany where he had two faster results.

Adjusting the  “Aging Factor”

In order to favor newer results over older results, I include an aging factor. After playing a bit more with different values, I’ve adjusted the factor to 0.85. This results in a few little shifts in the Top10, but also to a new number 9 with Timo Bracht, instead of Cameron Brown (who is now ranked #12).

Here’s a closer look at the results of these two athletes:

Name 2005 (49) 2006 (66) 2007 (261) 2008
(-7)
2009
(-627)
2010 (290) AZ 2010 (1335)
Timo 9:02:33 8:30:24 8:37:52   8:28:52 8:21:00 8:07:16
Cam 8:19:36 8:25:22   8:26:17 8:34:10 8:53:41  

(The number under the races is the adjustment for this race, a number >0 meaning the race was faster.)

When I look at these results, then Timo was the faster athlete in 2006, 09 and 10. Cam’s result in 2008 is much better than Timo’s in 2007, and Cam had the better result in 2005. All in all, it seems that the “old” result of 2005 shouldn’t carry so much weight any more and Timo should be ranked in front of Cameron. This was achieved by a relatively small adjustment in the age factor.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens when both athletes home races (IM New Zealand and IM Germany) are added to the ratings – both have had their most impressive results on their home turf.

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