Author Archive | Thorsten

IM Coeur d’Alene 2011 Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Coeur d’Alene, with a course rating of 4:12, is just a few minutes quicker than IM Hawaii (-0:24) and about as fast as IM Australia (4:24).

Last year’s race was won by Andy Potts (8:24) and Linsey Corbin (9:17).

Male Participants

For this year, the “German Cycling Machine” Mail Twelsiek seems to be ready for his next IM win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:31:03 08:40:42 28
2 Oliver Piggin NZL 08:59:36 09:09:48 152
3 Joe McDaniel USA 09:03:04 09:13:20 176
4 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:36 09:19:59 232
5 Billy Edwards USA 09:20:30 09:31:05 299
6 Tim Snow USA 09:21:25 09:32:01 305
7 Cesar Valera VEN 09:31:05 09:41:52 379
8 Lewis Elliot USA 09:32:35 09:43:24 384
9 Brendan Halpin USA 09:33:45 09:44:35 392
10 Blake Becker USA 09:37:04 09:47:58 416
11 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:39:01 09:49:57 428
12 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:50:53 10:02:03 510
13 Heath Thurston USA 09:55:04 10:06:18 530
14 Adam Jensen USA 09:58:09 10:09:27 553
15 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:02:43 10:14:06 576
16 Scott Tremblay CAN n/a unrated n/a
17 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated n/a
18 Brian Hadley USA n/a unrated n/a

He has to be called the clear favorite and the only “almost rock star” in the race, but I’m sure that one of the other athletes will try to give him a good run for the money.

Update (6/22): Literally within minutes of me posting my predictions, Crowie announced on his blog that he will also race CdA. If he is properly recovered from his injury, that makes him the favorite for the race. One other question is if he’s racing just to finish and secure his Kona spot, or i he is going to go all out for another IM win. If he’s on form, I’m predicting an 8:12 for him (more in the updated details post).

Female Participants

On the female side, there is another clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Julie Dibens USA 09:02:46 09:13:01 2
2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:28:04 09:38:48 23
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:30:41 09:41:28 33
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:31:08 09:41:55 35
5 Caitlin Snow USA 09:34:52 09:45:44 42
6 Alison Fitch AUS 09:41:34 09:52:33 55
7 Desiree Ficker USA 10:10:49 10:22:21 141
8 Haley Cooper USA 10:10:56 10:22:28 142
9 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:15:59 10:27:37 162
10 Lianne Evans USA 10:16:07 10:27:45 162
11 Elly Franks AUS 10:20:08 10:31:51 170
12 Teri Albertazzi USA 10:28:03 10:39:55 188
13 Caroline Gregory USA n/a unrated n/a

“Dibs” just has one Ironman race so far (last year’s third place in IM Hawaii), and if she can even remotely repeat her Kona performance, she should win just as convincingly as Maik on the male side. Behind her we have 4 to 6 contenders for a podium spot – depending if you want to count Ali Fitch (with her comeback race after a prolonged injury) and Desiree Ficker (apparently trying to get back into Triathlon, but sometimes a hit and miss athlete).

IM France 2011 Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM France is a medium-fast course (course rating of 8:24), comparable to IM Arizona (7:55). Last year’s race was won by Marcel Zamora in 8:25 and Tine Deckers in 9:21.

Male Participants

Surprisingly, last year’s winner does not top my prediction, but rather Paul Amey:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Paul Amey USA 08:26:55 08:40:24 27
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:30:15 08:43:49 35
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:30:49 08:44:24 37
4 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:36:48 08:50:32 68
5 Alexandro Santamaria ESP 08:46:04 09:00:03 107
6 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:21 09:02:24 122
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:53:17 09:07:28 136
8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:01:24 09:15:48 195
9 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:02:44 09:17:10 205
10 Chris Brands NLD 09:03:56 09:18:24 219
11 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:05:10 09:19:40 230
12 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 09:07:26 09:21:59 246
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:09:59 09:24:36 268
14 Leandro Gonzalez Bonet ARG 09:20:41 09:35:35 328
15 Leonardo Simoncini ITA 09:23:54 09:38:54 348
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:24:14 09:39:14 352
17 Alfred Rahm GER 09:28:49 09:43:56 388
18 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:42:01 09:57:30 477
19 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a
20 Domenico Passuello ITA n/a unrated n/a
21 Nicolas Fernandez FRA n/a unrated n/a
22 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
23 Bill Scanlon AUS n/a unrated n/a

All of the top 3 prediction wouldn’t be a surprise winner, it’ll be interesting to see how the race between Amey, Marcel Zamora and Frederik van Lierde is going to turn out.

Female Participants

Another surprise tops the women’s field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Silvia Felt GER 09:21:28 09:36:24 20
2 Christel Robin FRA 09:25:53 09:40:56 31
3 Heather Gollnick USA 09:32:03 09:47:16 45
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:32:24 09:47:37 46
5 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:35 09:51:55 54
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:23 09:55:49 63
7 Britta Martin NZL 09:44:06 09:59:38 69
8 Alexandra Louison FRA 09:49:55 10:05:36 85
9 Johanna Daumas FRA 09:56:10 10:12:01 110
10 Katya Meyers USA 10:05:06 10:21:11 137
11 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:14:28 10:30:48 167
12 Stephanie Jones USA 10:29:54 10:46:39 205
13 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:45:30 11:02:40 230
14 Christine Hemphill AUS n/a unrated n/a

As you can see in the details, I have just one result Silvia Felt in my database (a 9:24 and 4th place from this year’s IM South Africa) – I wonder if she’ll be able to put in another performance at this level. She is followed by a number of established athletes, and I would think that everyone up to #8 has a realistic chance of winning the race or at least being in the mix.

IM France 2011 Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Paul Amey USA 08:26:55 08:40:24 27
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:30:15 08:43:49 35
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:30:49 08:44:24 37
4 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:36:48 08:50:32 68
5 Alexandro Santamaria ESP 08:46:04 09:00:03 107
6 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:21 09:02:24 122
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:53:17 09:07:28 136
8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:01:24 09:15:48 195
9 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:02:44 09:17:10 205
10 Chris Brands NLD 09:03:56 09:18:24 219
11 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:05:10 09:19:40 230
12 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 09:07:26 09:21:59 246
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:09:59 09:24:36 268
14 Leandro Gonzalez Bonet ARG 09:20:41 09:35:35 328
15 Leonardo Simoncini ITA 09:23:54 09:38:54 348
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:24:14 09:39:14 352
17 Alfred Rahm GER 09:28:49 09:43:56 388
18 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:42:01 09:57:30 477
19 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a
20 Domenico Passuello ITA n/a unrated n/a
21 Nicolas Fernandez FRA n/a unrated n/a
22 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
23 Bill Scanlon AUS n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Silvia Felt GER 09:21:28 09:36:24 20
2 Christel Robin FRA 09:25:53 09:40:56 31
3 Heather Gollnick USA 09:32:03 09:47:16 45
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:32:24 09:47:37 46
5 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:35 09:51:55 54
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:23 09:55:49 63
7 Britta Martin NZL 09:44:06 09:59:38 69
8 Alexandra Louison FRA 09:49:55 10:05:36 85
9 Johanna Daumas FRA 09:56:10 10:12:01 110
10 Katya Meyers USA 10:05:06 10:21:11 137
11 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:14:28 10:30:48 167
12 Stephanie Jones USA 10:29:54 10:46:39 205
13 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:45:30 11:02:40 230
14 Christine Hemphill AUS n/a unrated n/a

Results for Paul Amey (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:27:20 08:32:39 08:40:24 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:58 08:48:25 08:48:25 16

Results for Marcel Zamora (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 08:25:28 08:38:33 08:43:49 1
IM France 2009-06-28 08:30:06 08:35:58 08:45:11 1
IM France 2008-06-22 08:34:03 08:38:33 08:47:23 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:53:39 09:02:13 08:49:19 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:46:36 08:47:19 08:45:58 20
IM France 2007-06-24 08:38:45 08:47:29 08:45:34 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:44:46 08:42:28 08:44:52 24
IM France 2006-06-24 08:33:56 08:41:29 08:45:54 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:47:16 08:46:47 08:48:43 25
IM France 2005-06-19 08:50:50 08:50:50 08:50:50 2

Results for Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:31:43 08:34:28 08:44:24 14
IM France 2010-06-27 08:30:39 08:43:53 08:47:18 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:09:38 09:06:56 08:48:34 35
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:26:58 08:42:33 08:40:41 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:34:34 08:39:58 08:39:27 9
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:31:35 08:38:49 08:38:49 2

Results for Francois Chabaud (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:23:44 08:46:38 08:50:32 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:33:53 08:42:08 08:52:05 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:56 08:57:34 08:57:52 42
IM France 2006-06-24 08:53:10 09:00:59 08:58:04 3
IM UK 2005-08-21 09:07:26 08:54:20 08:54:20 2

Results for Alexandro Santamaria (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:04:38 09:06:05 09:00:03 7
IM UK 2006-08-16 08:54:42 08:57:57 08:46:26 4
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:30:33 08:30:33 08:30:33 6

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:02:27 09:02:24 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:11:24 09:02:22 40
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:52:34 08:52:34 3

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:58:30 09:07:28 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:04 09:09:17 15
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:06:54 09:06:24 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:38:11 09:06:17 63
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:18 08:58:33 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:46:40 08:56:41 66
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:39:33 08:41:32 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:48:24 08:42:07 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:38:15 08:39:45 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:33:09 08:40:25 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:16 08:44:54 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Trevor Delsaut (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:41:57 08:52:56 09:15:48 9
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:33:27 08:51:49 09:29:13 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:27:44 09:43:23 10:02:29 19
IM France 2008-06-22 10:16:31 10:21:55 10:21:55 20

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:37:12 09:38:44 09:17:10 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:33 09:27:35 09:11:38 23
IM France 2010-06-27 08:53:15 09:07:04 09:06:59 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:11 08:52:34 09:06:57 24
IM France 2009-06-28 08:58:02 09:04:14 09:12:41 6
IM France 2008-06-22 09:22:52 09:27:48 09:17:35 11
IM France 2007-06-24 08:46:30 08:55:22 09:09:48 4
IM France 2006-06-24 09:20:48 09:29:02 09:29:02 9

Results for Chris Brands (NLD)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:05:03 09:15:13 09:18:24 15
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:52:52 09:11:56 09:19:07 18
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:18:04 09:16:29 09:21:03 12
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:35:15 09:32:26 09:22:40 61
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:16:01 09:12:38 09:18:33 10
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:14:10 09:29:27 09:22:08 18
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:05:42 09:04:45 09:15:36 8
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 09:31:40 09:27:19 09:27:19 12

Results for Jose Jeuland (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:05:46 09:19:54 09:19:40 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:39:51 09:40:08 09:19:38 13
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:26:51 08:47:52 09:15:40 15
IM France 2009-06-28 09:18:38 09:25:04 09:22:13 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:51:29 08:57:04 09:21:22 14
IM France 2008-06-22 08:53:34 08:58:15 09:29:43 4
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:59:52 10:00:15 09:43:32 19
IM France 2007-06-24 09:09:14 09:18:29 09:34:32 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:53:16 09:51:02 09:51:02 17

Results for Dirk Wijnalda (NLD)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:30:25 09:26:00 09:21:59 11
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:01:07 09:04:23 09:20:18 9
IM France 2009-06-28 09:41:11 09:47:53 09:28:39 13
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:25 09:10:05 09:17:21 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:04:38 09:18:19 09:21:32 11
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:25:14 09:25:00 09:25:00 8

Results for Xavier Diepart (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:06:54 09:21:04 09:24:36 7
IM France 2007-06-24 09:23:37 09:33:07 09:29:18 12
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:21:01 09:24:26 09:24:26 13

Results for Leandro Gonzalez Bonet (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:26:34 09:47:23 09:35:35 17
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:56:56 09:16:17 09:16:17 18

Results for Leonardo Simoncini (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:24:17 09:38:54 09:38:54 11

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:59:40 09:39:14 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 08:58:41 09:30:13 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:48:32 09:49:46 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:51:11 09:51:11 17

Results for Alfred Rahm (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:25:20 09:45:42 09:43:56 32
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:02:12 09:26:51 09:43:39 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:20:00 10:17:04 09:46:38 32
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:28:12 09:45:57 09:40:21 39
IM France 2007-06-24 09:36:45 09:46:28 09:39:10 16
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:38:13 09:46:59 09:37:25 30
IM France 2006-06-24 09:19:46 09:27:59 09:35:04 8
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:30:36 10:25:48 09:37:05 29
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:37:33 09:36:00 09:18:17 12
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:07:55 09:10:45 09:07:59 13
IM Germany 2005-07-11 09:08:00 09:04:58 09:04:58 10

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:22:52 09:57:30 34
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:35:30 09:53:08 15
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:49:24 09:56:33 29
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:15:10 09:58:10 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:21:45 09:53:26 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:40 10:02:42 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:02 10:01:54 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:08:49 10:13:59 30
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:45:44 09:43:10 10:18:18 75
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:57:58 10:57:58 34

Results for Luca De Paolis (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Domenico Passuello (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Nicolas Fernandez (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Cedric Lassonde (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Bill Scanlon (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Silvia Felt (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:24:31 09:36:24 09:36:24 4

Results for Christel Robin (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2009-06-28 09:34:19 09:40:56 09:40:56 2

Results for Heather Gollnick (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:22:13 09:41:12 09:47:16 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:58 10:02:00 09:48:10 24
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:31:42 09:47:36 09:45:48 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:50:34 09:55:41 09:45:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:32:07 09:39:31 09:43:48 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:40:48 09:41:36 09:44:35 11
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:36:40 09:40:41 09:45:08 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:28:16 09:33:45 09:46:00 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:43:42 09:41:09 09:48:48 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:36:39 09:36:35 09:50:47 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:33:25 09:35:20 09:55:10 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:59:55 09:59:22 10:03:18 24
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:01:47 09:56:48 10:05:30 3
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:14:57 10:14:57 10:14:57 6

Results for Kim Loeffler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:20:04 09:30:11 09:47:37 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:21:26 09:37:38 09:51:21 3
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:30:57 09:41:21 09:54:26 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:32:00 10:28:54 09:57:24 36
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:33:54 09:39:55 09:49:25 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:54:55 09:55:11 09:51:44 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:15 10:01:05 09:50:45 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:33:43 09:39:15 09:47:42 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:48:40 09:46:06 09:50:29 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:16:39 10:16:35 09:52:21 11
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:30:18 09:29:47 09:37:04 8
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 09:49:44 09:44:51 09:44:51 2

Results for Jeanne Collonge (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:35:19 09:51:55 09:51:55 6

Results for Martina Dogana (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:47:47 10:00:09 09:55:49 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:48:13 09:57:44 09:54:27 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:45 10:01:47 09:53:26 23
IM France 2009-06-28 09:37:35 09:44:14 09:50:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:50:47 09:50:11 09:53:31 15
IM France 2008-06-22 09:35:29 09:40:32 09:55:50 1
IM France 2006-06-24 10:13:59 10:23:00 10:23:00 3

Results for Britta Martin (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:40:53 09:55:56 09:59:38 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:47:11 09:57:52 10:01:57 5
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:18 10:07:23 10:07:23 8

Results for Alexandra Louison (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:38:25 09:53:24 10:05:36 3
IM France 2009-06-28 09:52:28 09:59:17 10:10:11 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:20:58 10:20:20 10:14:28 28
IM France 2008-06-22 10:03:46 10:09:03 10:11:42 3
IM France 2007-06-24 09:49:11 09:59:07 10:13:42 1
IM France 2006-06-24 10:24:00 10:33:09 10:33:09 5

Results for Johanna Daumas (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 09:56:34 10:12:01 10:12:01 5

Results for Katya Meyers (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 10:02:12 10:17:48 10:21:11 6
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:35:53 09:55:20 10:21:51 8
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:12:59 10:18:55 10:27:01 10
IM France 2009-06-28 09:58:30 10:05:24 10:28:51 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:23:01 10:22:23 10:35:19 29
IM France 2008-06-22 10:28:06 10:33:36 10:39:03 5
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:24:36 10:27:14 10:41:01 13
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 11:33:39 11:17:16 10:45:43 12
IM France 2006-06-24 10:18:41 10:27:46 10:32:52 4
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:48:46 10:48:11 10:36:02 48
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:24:49 10:23:25 10:23:25 10

Results for Fiona Whitby (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:10:58 10:22:22 10:30:48 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:34:44 10:46:30 10:36:26 10
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:18:34 10:18:51 10:18:51 4

Results for Stephanie Jones (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 11:59:14 12:08:32 10:46:39 21
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:34:31 09:52:28 10:18:35 9
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:29:55 10:30:19 10:29:52 10
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:43:35 10:28:23 10:29:33 8
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 10:28:46 10:30:52 10:30:52 10

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:19:12 10:30:23 11:02:40 14
IM St. George 2011-05-07 11:51:45 11:53:38 11:06:51 8
IM Canada 2010-08-29 12:47:12 13:01:31 10:59:58 18
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:40:59 10:36:01 10:43:15 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:53:01 10:10:09 10:44:18 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 13:39:19 13:47:51 10:49:13 14
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:18:02 10:29:32 10:49:13 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:06:24 10:12:46 10:51:50 12
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:54:52 10:55:36 10:57:18 12
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:21:23 11:27:27 10:57:33 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:18:14 10:23:35 10:52:17 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:21:42 10:29:44 10:58:04 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:43:58 10:44:51 11:04:45 48
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:16:31 10:20:49 11:09:51 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:15:34 11:14:24 11:23:52 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 11:22:19 11:22:15 11:26:50 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:27:13 11:26:36 11:28:46 55
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:19:15 11:17:43 11:29:55 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 11:42:45 11:42:45 11:42:45 5

Results for Christine Hemphill (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Coeur d’Alene 2011 Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:11:59 08:21:17 3
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:31:03 08:40:42 28
3 Oliver Piggin NZL 08:59:36 09:09:48 152
4 Joe McDaniel USA 09:03:04 09:13:20 176
5 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:36 09:19:59 232
6 Billy Edwards USA 09:20:30 09:31:05 299
7 Tim Snow USA 09:21:25 09:32:01 305
8 Cesar Valera VEN 09:31:05 09:41:52 379
9 Lewis Elliot USA 09:32:35 09:43:24 384
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:33:45 09:44:35 392
11 Blake Becker USA 09:37:04 09:47:58 416
12 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:39:01 09:49:57 428
13 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:50:53 10:02:03 510
14 Heath Thurston USA 09:55:04 10:06:18 530
15 Adam Jensen USA 09:58:09 10:09:27 553
16 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:02:43 10:14:06 576
17 Scott Tremblay CAN n/a unrated n/a
18 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated n/a
19 Brian Hadley USA n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Julie Dibens USA 09:02:46 09:13:01 2
2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:28:04 09:38:48 23
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:30:41 09:41:28 33
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:31:08 09:41:55 35
5 Caitlin Snow USA 09:34:52 09:45:44 42
6 Alison Fitch AUS 09:41:34 09:52:33 55
7 Desiree Ficker USA 10:10:49 10:22:21 141
8 Haley Cooper USA 10:10:56 10:22:28 142
9 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:15:59 10:27:37 162
10 Lianne Evans USA 10:16:07 10:27:45 162
11 Elly Franks AUS 10:20:08 10:31:51 170
12 Teri Albertazzi USA 10:28:03 10:39:55 188
13 Caroline Gregory USA n/a unrated n/a

Results for Craig Alexander (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:16:53 08:19:33 08:21:17 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:20:21 08:17:54 08:22:06 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:17:45 08:17:14 08:24:26 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:19:04 08:19:45 08:29:35 2
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:38:48 08:40:59 08:40:59 3

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:33:46 08:35:08 08:40:42 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:27:02 08:29:45 08:41:35 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:48:33 08:52:44 08:43:26 3
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:42:53 08:41:24 08:41:50 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:35:10 08:32:39 08:41:55 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:36:37 08:36:52 08:43:45 1
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:34:10 08:38:37 08:45:20 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:37 08:48:04 08:47:06 14
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:24:03 08:42:18 08:46:49 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 08:52:49 08:53:10 08:48:33 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:17:03 08:38:28 08:46:32 6
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:31:53 08:44:02 08:52:08 9
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:02:19 09:00:52 09:00:52 9

Results for Oliver Piggin (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:09:48 09:09:48 09:09:48 16

Results for Joe McDaniel (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:26:27 09:27:57 09:13:20 12
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:43:23 08:56:39 08:56:39 9

Results for Raul Furtado (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:09:39 09:19:34 09:19:59 16
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:53:20 09:08:10 09:20:18 5
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:04 09:05:07 09:29:35 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:49:00 10:02:10 10:02:10 26

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:45:55 09:50:34 09:31:05 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:14:42 09:24:59 09:27:18 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:59:30 09:56:34 09:27:51 72
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:12:09 09:12:25 09:21:03 7
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:17:02 09:22:53 09:23:31 27
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:24:34 09:25:21 09:23:43 55
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:16:09 09:16:57 09:23:14 10
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:22:27 09:19:59 09:25:31 68
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:21:48 09:20:50 09:27:53 12
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:36:45 09:36:14 09:32:44 72
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:28:40 09:28:40 09:28:40 18

Results for Tim Snow (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:10:48 09:15:10 09:32:01 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:34:35 09:30:08 09:35:08 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:26:26 09:26:43 09:36:11 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:02:51 10:02:14 09:38:06 73
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:18:38 09:18:53 09:33:28 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:49:50 09:06:23 09:36:40 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:21:12 09:22:00 09:43:16 11
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:29:49 09:33:47 09:48:28 14
IM Canada 2006-08-27 13:38:30 13:37:05 09:52:53 32
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:59:10 09:51:06 09:52:53 24
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:02:12 10:05:19 09:53:28 30
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:04:53 10:04:20 09:49:13 86
IM Germany 2005-07-11 09:47:00 09:43:45 09:41:01 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 09:38:16 09:38:16 09:38:16 15

Results for Cesar Valera (VEN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:43:31 09:41:52 09:41:52 16

Results for Lewis Elliot (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:10:54 09:24:52 09:43:24 22
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:46:20 10:58:24 09:48:10 27
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:00:14 09:15:50 09:25:52 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:22:43 09:27:35 09:29:18 10
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:29:08 09:36:29 09:29:48 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:41:31 09:42:19 09:27:14 68
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:53:51 08:57:34 09:19:41 8
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:10 09:46:07 09:36:37 25
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:23:58 09:23:58 09:23:58 14

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:36:40 09:42:15 09:44:35 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:48:09 09:48:59 09:48:59 20

Results for Blake Becker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:05:04 09:18:53 09:47:58 18
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:55:44 08:58:58 09:53:29 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:39:16 09:58:49 10:05:26 18
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:01:56 10:01:39 10:06:49 17
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:12 10:34:33 10:08:05 79
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:16:55 10:17:36 10:01:53 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:26:30 09:31:24 09:57:13 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:38:15 09:38:37 10:07:12 15
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:53:12 09:57:20 10:19:59 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:35:27 10:45:06 10:34:57 39
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 10:37:51 10:20:49 10:20:49 19

Results for Kyle Pawlaczyk (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:40:43 09:57:28 09:49:57 29
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:37:13 09:41:48 09:41:48 15

Results for Juan Carlos Ramirez (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:03:03 10:14:18 10:02:03 26
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:41:34 09:47:11 09:55:48 24
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:46:00 09:51:13 10:01:09 30
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:11:53 10:13:57 10:09:46 29
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:01:58 10:01:58 10:01:58 19

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:09:18 10:10:55 10:06:18 16
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:08:42 10:14:35 10:03:11 30
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:57:00 10:03:16 09:55:00 41
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:26:07 09:43:48 09:43:48 37

Results for Adam Jensen (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:06:32 09:16:40 10:09:27 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 11:27:01 11:33:40 10:35:22 36
IM Canada 2008-08-24 10:36:21 10:42:01 09:58:29 36
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:56:53 08:57:39 09:19:29 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 09:58:11 09:58:11 09:58:11 18

Results for Arland Macasieb (PHL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:48:00 10:04:58 10:14:06 30
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:13:33 10:18:25 10:19:23 23
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:15:35 10:15:52 10:20:30 23
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 10:37:18 10:28:43 10:28:43 26

Results for Scott Tremblay (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Brian Hadley (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Julie Dibens (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:10:04 09:13:01 09:13:01 3

Results for Kelly Williamson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:07:54 09:17:47 09:38:48 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:36:11 09:39:16 09:49:20 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:39:23 09:50:08 09:56:38 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:21:14 10:20:40 10:09:44 36
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 09:57:48 09:57:48 09:57:48 1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:29:05 09:41:28 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:07:16 09:44:17 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:24:06 09:37:49 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:34:19 09:42:57 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:25 09:47:45 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:53:49 09:53:49 7

Results for Mackenzie Madison (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:11 09:38:29 09:41:55 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:34:51 09:45:35 09:45:35 3

Results for Caitlin Snow (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:26:42 09:29:44 09:45:44 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:44:18 09:48:56 09:49:53 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:07:26 10:02:44 09:50:12 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:51:59 09:49:05 09:44:44 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:41:21 09:41:38 09:42:10 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:43:27 09:42:51 09:42:51 12

Results for Alison Fitch (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:09:29 10:09:12 09:52:33 5
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:26:15 09:31:18 09:45:26 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:15 10:01:05 09:51:57 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:31:45 09:46:07 09:46:50 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:45:07 09:47:35 09:47:35 5

Results for Desiree Ficker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:24:09 09:34:20 10:22:21 7
IM Australia 2010-03-28 11:14:54 11:26:04 10:36:18 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:07:48 11:07:07 10:23:09 42
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:56:09 10:01:28 10:13:55 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 11:09:30 11:09:49 10:17:04 7
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:40:43 10:41:36 09:59:49 47
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:46:54 10:00:54 09:44:59 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:24:02 09:21:34 09:37:10 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:56 09:46:54 09:47:33 4
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 14:01:55 13:54:57 09:48:26 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:48:26 09:48:26 09:48:26 2

Results for Haley Cooper (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:42:02 09:52:49 10:22:28 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:23:19 10:20:16 10:28:00 34
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:53:35 09:59:19 10:29:24 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:51:11 09:57:20 10:35:44 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:45:59 09:52:08 10:45:17 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:23:33 11:22:51 10:59:29 45
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:08:04 10:13:20 10:51:21 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:38:15 10:39:08 11:09:11 45
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 10:42:57 10:43:52 11:27:55 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:26:37 12:26:32 12:26:32 23

Results for Kelzie Beebe (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:01:52 10:27:37 10:27:37 8

Results for Lianne Evans (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:53:51 10:12:24 10:27:45 16
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:25:47 10:35:17 10:38:12 17
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:56:45 10:41:14 10:41:14 11

Results for Elly Franks (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:34:10 10:39:39 10:31:51 11
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:10:37 10:19:14 10:25:49 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:31:41 10:34:20 10:34:20 15

Results for Teri Albertazzi (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 10:20:02 10:37:57 10:39:55 16
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:07:38 10:15:29 10:41:13 10
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:53:53 10:54:18 10:59:33 12
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 11:05:12 11:07:26 11:07:26 16

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Challenge Cairns 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Challenge Cairns is a new Ironman-distance race which is part of the Challenge family. They had a pretty impressive lineup, and almost all the names from the Pro start list actually made it. (The notable exception was Cam Brown – I’m not aware of any injuries he has, so I’m not sure what the story is.)

We’ve had a reasonable number of rated athletes, so the adjustment (and course rating) of 12:30 is pretty solid. This means that Cairns is a pretty fast course (similar to Arizona or Texas) but not crazy fast such as Challenge Roth.

Male Results

Chris McCormack was the big favorite, and he didn’t disappoint with a 13 minute winning margin:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:15:56 08:09:02
2 Matt White AUS 08:28:36 08:54:46
3 Tim Berkel AUS 08:29:20 08:34:47
4 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:35:07 08:48:26
5 Clayton Fettell   08:36:14 n/a
6 David Dellow   08:41:39 n/a
7 Jonathan Hotchkiss   08:42:49 n/a
8 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:17:03 09:09:42
9 Graham O’Grady   13:25:55 n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

He did go a bit slower than expected based on his rating, but with his recent focus on Olympic distance racing, that was probably not realistic. (This also means that Andreas Raelert is now the #1 rated athlete by a solid margin.) His 2:51 marathon was still quite impressive. Matty White had another great race and took the second spot, Tim Berkel and Jamie Whyte also improved their ratings. Clayton Fettell had a good first IM distance race – it’ll be interesting to see him improve on his 3:11 marathon. 

Female Results

On the women’s side, the pre-race favorite also won the race:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:26:31 09:17:07
2 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:30:41 09:42:14
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:34:56 09:34:06
4 Candice Hammond   09:43:03 n/a
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:44:41 09:32:31
6 Christie Sym AUS 09:49:09 09:55:52
7 Lisa Ribes   09:52:41 n/a
8 Simone Maier   10:05:37 n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

However, Rebekah Keat was a bit slower than expected – but still managed to win, but only with a four minute margin to Michelle Mitchell who continues to improve her rating and has now climbed to #35 in the women’s rankings. Carrie Lester almost hit exactly her predicted time. Belinda Granger continues her rating slip, since winning IM Canada in 2008 she has not managed to hit her predicted times. However, with 22 races in my database she is one of the most prolific racers (only surpassed by Petr Vabrousek and Hillary Biscay).

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