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Kona Qualifying – One Week before the August Cutoff

The race for the Professional Kona slots is almost over: The second and final qualifying period ends on August 20th. The first qualifying period had the majority of slots, but there are another ten slots for the male and seven for female Pros. The final order will be decided in two more Ironman races: The Scandinavian duo of IM Sweden (MPRO) and IM Copenhagen (WPRO), and IM Mont Tremblant. There are also two more 70.3s (70.3 Dublin and 70.3 Indonesia), but as they have fewer points their impact will be smaller, but there are some athletes for whom Dublin can make the difference of qualifying or not. This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August Slot Assignments”.

Update Aug 15th: Justin Daerr has announced he won’t be racing in Sweden, instead focusing on IM Wisconsin and 2018 qualifying.

Update Aug 16th: A few other athletes have indicated that they won’t be racing IM Sweden.

Update Aug 19th: Situation after the completion of IM Sweden.

Update Aug 20th: Slight update on the men’s side after 70.3 Dublin.

Women

There are seven female slots available this weekend. Meredith Kessler is currently placed in the middle of the qualifying spots, but as she is pregnant she is extremely unlikely to accept her slot. (I assume she will still be asked, so the rolldown procedure might take some time.) Here’s a table of the athletes currently in the qualifying ranks and those that still have a chance to pass Jeanne Collonge who would currently get the last slot:

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed
1 Moeller, Kristin 5.120 3+1 (515/435)
2 McCauley, Jocelyn 4.415 3+1 (385/30)
3 Holst, Tine 4.295 3+1 (960/400)
Kessler, Meredith 4.265 3+1 (235/750)  pregnant
4 Chura, Haley 4.180 1+2 (2890/540)
5 Joyce, Rachel 4.100 2+2 (960/220) IM Mont Tremblant 8th
6 Bartlett, Nikki 4.055 3+1 (855/640)
7 Collonge, Jeanne 3.910 3+1 (960/280) IM Copenhagen 3rd
Brown, Brooke 3.445 3+1 (540/345) IM Mont Tremblant 3rd
Tastets, Pamela 3.425 3+1 (855/540) IM Copenhagen 2nd
Roberts, Darbi 2.755 3+0 (215/-) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd
Tisseyre, Magali 2.390 1+2 (685/540) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive the August slots:

  • Kristin Moeller and Jocelyn McCauley are safe for a slot – there are just not enough athletes racing that can still overtake them. (Slots #1 and #2)
  • Tine Holst and Haley Chura should also remain in the top qualifying spots, but there is still a chance for others to overtake them. (Slots #3 and #4)
  • Rachel Joyce has indicated that she is going to race IM Mont Tremblant. She only needs an 8th place to improve her position, and she should be able to finally secure a slot. (Slot #5)
  • Slot #6 comes down to Nikki Bartlett or one of the contenders from IM Copenhagen. Given the strong competition in Copenhagen (e.g. Michelle Vesterby and Corinne Abraham) and the requirements to place well, Nikki seems to have the best chances.
  • The last slot (slot #7) should be decided in Mont Tremblant between Brooke Brown, Darbi Roberts and Magali Tisseyre.
The athletes just missing slots will have to hope for a rolldown.

Men

There are ten more male slots available at the end of August. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed
1 Weiss, Michael 4.430 3+1 (720/750)
2 Wiltshire, Harry 3.765 3+1 (305/500)
3 Wurf, Cameron 3.485 3+1 (515/35)
4 Fachbach, Markus 3.400 2+2 (1280/240)
5 Molinari, Giulio 3.395 3+1 (720/750)
6 Chevrot, Denis 3.390 2+2 (720/640)
7 Fox, Michael 3.355 3+1 (405/320)
8 Tohara, Kaito 3.330 3+1 (230/220)
9 López Diaz, Carlos 3.175 3+0 (215/-) 70.3 Dublin (DNS)
10 Llanos, Eneko 2.975 3+1 (340/75) 70.3 Dublin (finished 8th)
11 Croneborg, Fredrik 2.820 1+2 (2000/320) 70.3 Indonesia (DNS?)
Vanhoenacker, Marino 2.555 1+2 (2000/55) IM Mont Tremblant 7th
McDonald, Chris 1.448 2+1 IM Mont Tremblant 2nd

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total points, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Rank Athlete Points Races Race Plan Needed/Actual
 14 Sapunov, Daniil 2.745 3+1 (720/345) IM Sweden 4th – / 5th
 17 Hovgaard, Esben 2.600 3+1 (540/240) IM Sweden 2nd / 3rd
Baldwin, Nick 2.235 3+1 (230/320) IM Sweden 4th / DNS
Daerr, Justin 2.105 2+2 (720/30) IM Sweden 4th / DNS
Lassonde, Cedric 1.305 2+2 (305/100) IM Sweden Win / DNS

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the August slots:

  • Michael Weiss, Harry Wiltshire and Markus Fachbach will remain in the Top 10 (slots #1, #2 and #3).
  • Giulio Molinari, Denis Chevrot and Michael Fox should remain in the qualifying ranks as well, though if they don’t score there is still a relatively small chance for them to fall back too far (slots #4, #5 and #6).
  • The list for Sweden is still “crowded” by athletes unlikely to race there, but I would guess that we will see two athletes placing well there grabbing a slot (slots #7 and #8). Only Cameron Wurf was able to secure a slot at IM Sweden, practically making Kaito Tohara safe.
  • Considering Marino Vanhoenacker is unlikely to accept a slot even if he is well placed, I can only see one slot being assigned in Mont Tremblant – but for that Chris McDonald has to finish second or better so it’s not assured by any means (slot #9).
  • The last slot would then be decided between the two Spanish athletes that might race in Dublin, Carlos Lopez Diaz (just having raced IM Hamburg, probably not racing) and Eneko Llanos – or maybe Kaito Tohara (slot #10).

There are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot – it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday! As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August slot assignments”.

Unofficial KPR & 2017 Kona Pro Slot Allocation for July Cutoff

2017 TitlePage Kona Report ThumbHere is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell will show the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown.

There is going to be another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

July 29th: For now, the tables below contain the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot. The remaining races will decide the final spots, check out the geeky details about who’s currently in and who can still make in this post (“Kona Qualifying Before the Last July Races“). I will update this post as soon as each of the races are over with the implications.

July 30th: The Male Rankings are finalized, including the results from both IM Switzerland and 70. Ecuador. Athletes with rankings shown in brackets (such as “(41)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. For the women, Ironman Canada is likely still changing the rankings, therefore the table for now only shows the athletes that are safe for a July slot.

July 31st: With the big points at IM Canada decided, the female ranking is now also finalized in the points slots. As for the men, the athletes shown in brackets (such as “(30)”) are out of the slot positions and have to hope for a rolldown slot. With an expected rolldown from Lucy Gossage, Corinne Abraham would receive a slot even though she’s in #29 and technically just outside the required ranking.

August 6th: The anticipated rolldown on the female side has happened: Lucy Gossage has declined her slot which Corinne Abraham accepted. Not all athletes have accepted their slot yet, but there is no other known rolldown.

August 7th: On the Ironman website Camilla Pedersen and David Plese are still not shown with a Q, but both have indicated on Instagram that they have accepted their slots. This means that for now there will be no additional rolldown slots.

Male KPR Rankings

Rank  Name Nation Points Races
AQ Kienle, Sebastian GER 14985 2+2 (4000/1085)
AQ Frodeno, Jan GER 10750 2+1
AQ Hoffman, Ben USA 10655 2+2 (4000/280)
1 Boecherer, Andi GER 10565 2+2 (3400/640)
2 Lange, Patrick GER 8150 2+0
3 O’Donnell, Timothy USA 7665 2+2 (2000/400)
AQ Van Lierde, Frederik BEL 7535 3+1 (2000/435)
AQ Don, Tim GBR 6515 1+2 (4000/920)
4 Buckingham, Kyle ZAF 6450 2+2 (2455/55)
5 Potts, Andy USA 6335 3+1 (1600/500)
6 Bozzone, Terenzo NZL 6225 2+2 (540/1500)
AQ Hanson, Matt USA 6210 2+2 (960/500)
7 Russell, Matthew USA 6010 3+1 (1600/500)
8 Stein, Boris GER 5920 2+0
9 Aernouts, Bart BEL 5825 2+0
10 Kastelein, Nick AUS 5690 2+2 (1280/640)
AQ Amberger, Josh AUS 5660 2+2 (70/750)
11 Currie, Braden NZL 5640 2+1
12 McNamee, David GBR 5540 2+1
13 Schildknecht, Ronnie SUI 5450 2+2 (1375/135)
14 Reed, Tim AUS 5240 1+2 (1600/640)
15 Frommhold, Nils GER 5235 1+2 (3400/750)
16 Nilsson, Patrik SWE 5070 2+1
17 Gambles, Joe AUS 4985 2+2 (405/540)
18 Butterfield, Tyler BMU 4915 1+2 (2890/750)
19 Wild, Ruedi SUI 4910 2+2 (340/540)
20 Sanders, Lionel CAN 4905 2+2 (340/1275)
21 McMahon, Brent CAN 4830 2+2 (1600/605)
22 Tutukin, Ivan RUS 4730 2+2 (1600/500)
23 Clarke, Will GBR 4645 3+1 (155/435)
24 Dellow, David AUS 4610 3+1 (340/180)
25 Viennot, Cyril FRA 4485 3+1 (705/500)
26 Albert, Marko EST 4415 3+1 (960/500)
27 Degasperi, Alessandro ITA 4290 3+1 (450/640)
28 Cunnama, James ZAF 4180 2+2 (685/400)
29 Van Berkel, Tim AUS 3955 2+2 (565/435)
30 Amorelli, Igor BRA 3933 2+2 (3/500)
31 Vinhal, Thiago BRA 3920 2+2 (1600/50)
32 Plese, David SLO 3775 3+1 (960/785)
33 Duelsen, Marc GER 3765 3+1 (540/540)
34 Van Berkel, Jan SUI 3755 2+2 (1280/145)
35 Rana, Ivan ESP 3740 2+2 (30/45)
36 Kotshegarov, Kirill EST 3710 3+0 (340/0)
37 Colucci, Reinaldo BRA 3705 1+2 (2455/500)
38 Evoe, Patrick USA 3500 2+2 (1280/345)
39 Fontana, Daniel ITA 3445 3+1 (515/210)
40 Thomas, Jesse USA 3420 2+2 (1100/400)
(41) Molinari, Giulio ITA 3395 3+1 (720/750)
(42) Chevrot, Denis FRA 3390 2+2 (720/640)
(43) Fox, Michael AUS 3355 3+1 (405/320)
(44) Tohara, Kaito JPN 3330 3+1 (230/220)
(45) Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3085 2+2 (305/280)
AQ Jacobs, Pete AUS 10 1

Female KPR Rankings

Rank  Name Nation Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela SUI 14935 2+2 (4000/750)
AQ Crowley, Sarah AUS 10875 3+1 (1375/1500)
1 Sali, Kaisa FIN 10275 2+2 (3400/540)
2 Piampiano, Sarah USA 9570 3+1 (1280/640)
3 Jackson, Heather USA 9080 2+2 (1600/500)
4 Vesterby, Michelle DEN 8005 3+0 (1280/0)
AQ Cheetham, Susie GBR 7930 2+2 (2890/400)
5 DECL Gossage, Lucy GBR 7475 3+1 (1280/750)
NV Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 7200 1+0
6 Beranek, Anja GER 6905 2+0
7 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 6595 3+1 (705/400)
8 Corbin, Linsey USA 6405 3+1 (1900/415)
9 Lyles, Elizabeth USA 6270 2+2 (2000/540)
10 Luxford, Annabel AUS 5830 2+2 (960/1500)
11 Siddall, Laura GBR 5720 3+1 (1280/840)
12 Lester, Carrie AUS 5535 2+1
13 Charles, Lucy GBR 5515 2+1
14 Stienen, Astrid GER 5495 2+2 (2000/435)
NV Wurtele, Heather CAN 5420 1+2 (2240/750)
15 Tondeur, Alexandra BEL 5290 3+1 (565/500)
16 Pedersen, Camilla DEN 5235 2+2 (1280/400)
17 Lundstroem, Asa SWE 5205 2+2 (960/180)
AQ Robertson, Jodie USA 5110 2+2 (450/20)
18 Tajsich, Sonja GER 5070 2+0
19 Duke, Dimity-Lee AUS 5070 3+1 (880/400)
20 Hufe, Mareen GER 5050 3+1 (1600/180)
21 Stage Nielsen, Maja DEN 4925 2+2 (1600/180)
22 Frades Larralde, Gurutze ESP 4915 3+1 (235/135)
23 Kaye, Alicia USA 4870 2+2 (340/640)
24 Riesler, Diana GER 4785 2+2 (1600/400)
25 Hauschildt, Melissa AUS 4700 1+1
NV Lawrence, Holly GBR 4500 0+2 (0/1500)
26 Schaerer, Celine SUI 4485 3+1 (540/345)
27 Grohmann, Katharina GER 4470 3+1 (960/140)
28 Brandon, Lauren USA 4425 2+2 (1600/515)
29 Abraham, Corinne GBR 4400 3+1 (960/240)
(30) McCauley, Jocelyn USA 4385 3+0 (385/0)
(31) Holst, Tine DEN 4295 3+1 (960/400)
(32*) Kessler, Meredith USA 4265 3+1 (235/750)
(33) Moeller, Kristin GER 4180 3+1 (340/435)
(34) Chura, Haley USA 4180 1+2 (2890/540)
(35) Joyce, Rachel GBR 4100 2+2 (960/220)
AQ Cave, Leanda GBR 2100 2+2 (340/500)

Lucy Gossage has said multiple times that she is going to decline her slot, so it’s very likely that Corinne Abraham will receive a rolldown slot in the next few days. (Therefore, I have not put Corinne’s 29 into brackets.)

Kona Qualifying – One Week Before The July Cutoff

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over: The July qualifying period ends on July 30th. There are only “one and a half” more Ironman races (IM Switzerland, and IM Canada in Whistler as WPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Ecuador). This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.

This is an excerpt from the latest update of the KPR Observer where I follow Pro qualifying through the season. If you like these kind of analysis, please subscribe now – until the end of 2017 qualifying, it’s available for a reduced price of 19$.

Women

There are 28 female slots available at the end of July. (There will be seven more in August.) Assuming that Lucy Gossage declines her slot (as she has indicated multiple times), here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Jocelyn McCauley who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank Name Country  Points  Races Race Plan Needed
25 Grohmann, Katharina GER

4.470

3+1 (960/140)
26 Brandon, Lauren USA

4.425

2+2 (1600/515)
27 Abraham, Corinne GBR

4.400

3+1 (960/240)
28 McCauley, Jocelyn USA

 4.385

3+0 (385/0)
Mack, Danielle USA

3.450

3+0 (170/0) IM Canada 3rd
Li, Shiao-YU TWN

3.145

3+1 (540/320) IM Zürich Win
Joyce, Rachel GBR

3.140

1+2 (2000/220) IM Canada 3rd
Elmore, Malindi CAN

3.130

2+2 (1070/140) IM Canada 2nd
Holst, Tine DEN

3.035

3+1 (340/400) IM Zürich Win
Schaerer, Celine SUI

3.000

3+1 (515/345) IM Zürich Win
DiMichele Miller, Leslie USA

2.905

3+1 (230/220) IM Canada Win

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

(Update July 27th: Malindi was on an early IM Canada start list but won’t be racing.)

Meredith Kessler and Haley Chura were still in the running for a slot last week, they are now out of the Top 28 and have to hope for a rolldown. (Meredith is pregnant so is certainly going to decline.)

Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open four July slots:

  • Katharina Grohmann remains in the Top 28 (slot #1). There is however a chance for three ladies racing in Whistler to pass Katharina (Rachel – Malindi – Danielle), so Katharina is not safe yet.
  • The winner at IM Zürich is going to get a slot – either Shiao-Yu, Tine or Celine (slot #2).
  • Two more slots will probably come from the top finishers in Canada, best chances for Danielle and Rachel (slots #3 and #4).

This would mean that Lauren Brandon, Corinne Abraham and Jocelyn McCauley would drop out of the July slots and that they have to hope for a rolldown slot or hope for an August slot.

Men

There are 40 male slots available at the end of July. (There will be ten more in August.). Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank Name Country  Points  Races Race Plan Needed
33 Kotshegarov, Kirill EST

3.710

3+0 (340/0)
34 Kastelein, Nick AUS

3.690

1+2 (1280/640) IM Zürich
35 Thomas, Jesse USA

3.420

2+2 (1100/400) 70.3 Ecuador
36 Molinari, Giulio ITA

3.395

3+1 (720/750)
37 Colucci, Reinaldo BRA

3.390

1+2 (2455/435) 70.3 Ecuador
38 Chevrot, Denis FRA

3.390

2+2 (720/640)
39 Fox, Michael AUS

3.355

3+1 (405/320)
40 Tohara, Kaito JPN

3.330

3+1 (230/220)
  Wild, Ruedi SUI

3.310

1+2 (340/540) IM Zürich Finish
  Evoe, Patrick USA

3.163

3+1 (8/540) 70.3 Ecuador 8th
  Wiltshire, Harry GBR

3.085

2+2 (305/280) IM Zürich 6th
  Fontana, Daniel ITA

2.860

2+2 (515/135) IM Zürich 5th
  Sapunov, Daniil UKR

2.710

3+1 (685/345) IM Zürich 2nd
  Van Berkel, Jan SUI

2.475

1+2 (2090/145) IM Zürich 4th
  Wurf, Cameron AUS

1.925

3+1 (40/35) IM Zürich 2nd
  Graves, Philip GBR

1.850

3+1 (5/220) IM Zürich 2nd
  Koutny, Philipp SUI

1.680

3+1 (170/140) IM Zürich Win
  Santos, Fellipe BRA

1.435

1+2 (855/180) IM Zürich Win

(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Last week Patrick Evoe and Harry Wiltshire were still in the Top 40, now they will have to race unless they want to count on a rolldown slot.

With Ronnie Schildknecht going for his 10th title in Zürich and based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open eight July slots:

  • The athletes currently in #33 to #34 (Kirill and Nick) will remain in the Top 40 (slot #1 and #2) even without racing.
  • Two of the three athletes on the Ecuador start list (Jesse, Reinaldo and Patrick) will get a slot (slots #3 and #4).
  • Ruedi Wild will finish in Zürich and secure slot #5.
  • At least two more of the Zürich athletes will race well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Harry and Jan (slots #6 and #7).
  • This leaves one slot open (slot #8): Possibly Jesse (even if he’s not racing in Ecuador), another athlete from Zürich or maybe even Giulio Molinari if less than five athletes are able to overtake him.

This would mean that Denis Chevrot, Michael Fox and Kaito Tohara have to hope for a rolldown or an August slot. But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!

July 2017 Updates to the Top 10 Ratings

After the completion of all Regional Championships in mid-July, I have updated the Top 10 Rankings.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Jan and Sebi are still the clear #1 and #2, both have slightly improved their ratings. With DNFs in their most recent races, the old #3 (Nils) and #4 (Brent) have dropped back to the end of the Top 10. Andi Böcherer has taken over #3, ensuring that the Germans still occupy the first three positions. Patrik Nilsson has climbed from #7 to #4, and Bart Aernouts (now #6), Tim Don (#7) and Tim O’Donnell (#8) have entered the Top 10 by winning their most recent races with fast times.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 07:58:16 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:04:24 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 14
3 Andi Boecherer GER 08:12:34 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:15:57 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 8
5 Andy Potts USA 08:17:26 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 16
6 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:18:32 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 11
7 Tim Don GBR 08:18:42 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 4
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:19:34 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 14
9 Nils Frommhold GER 08:21:03 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 9
10 Brent McMahon CAN 08:21:04 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 7

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

On the female side, Daniela and Rinny are on top of the rankings. (Rinny hasn’t raced for a while but won’t drop out before October.) Rachel Joyce is back to racing, re-claiming #3. The rest of the order is unchanged, with only Yvonne Van Vlerken re-entering the Top 10 after her fast race in Roth.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:42:55 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:01:36 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:05:49 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 18
4 Kaisa Sali FIN 09:09:12 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4
5 Heather Jackson USA 09:12:04 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 7
6 Meredith Kessler USA 09:14:01 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 25
7 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:15:04 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 6
8 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:15:51 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 4
9 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:17:34 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 26
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:17:45 IM UK on 2017-07-16 16

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

The old #1 Dylan McNeice hasn’t been able to race an Ironman for some time, he’s therefore dropped out of the rankings for now with Clayton Fettell moving into the #1 spot. Among some other small changes Brad Kahlefeldt has now completed three races and is eligible for a ranking, he’s now the #7 ranked swimmer.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:23 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 8
2 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:45 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
3 Andy Potts USA 00:47:00 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 16
4 Marko Albert EST 00:47:03 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 18
5 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:20 IM Western Australia on 2016-12-04 9
6 Michael Fox AUS 00:47:34 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 5
7 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:47:35 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 3
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:38 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 14
9 Andi Boecherer GER 00:47:39 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
10 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:47:45 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 5

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Lucy Charles takes over the #1 spot for the female swimmers, she is way ahead of everyone else except Lauren Brandon who isn’t quite eligible for a valid ranking just yet. Haley Chura is also back in #3, having finished her first Ironman race in more than two years.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:55 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 3
2 Jodie Cunnama GBR 00:49:34 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 9
3 Haley Chura USA 00:50:08 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 9
4 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:34 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 25
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:17 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 18
6 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:51:31 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 19
7 Leanda Cave GBR 00:51:46 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 20
8 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:51:50 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 7
9 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:52:00 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 4
10 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:02 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

Andy Starykowicz is still the best rated bike rider among the Ironman athletes with just a few minor shifts in the Top 10.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 04:22:41 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 7
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:25:02 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 14
3 Cameron Wurf AUS 04:27:01 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 4
4 Andi Boecherer GER 04:29:29 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 15
5 Jan Frodeno GER 04:30:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
6 Dougal Allan NZL 04:31:05 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 9
7 Michael Weiss AUT 04:31:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 17
8 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:32:01 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 6
9 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:33:39 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 21
10 Boris Stein GER 04:34:08 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 8

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Not too many changes among the top ranked female bike riders either. Daniela continues to be the clear #1, Heather Jackson has now moved into #2.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:54:50 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
2 Heather Jackson USA 05:03:14 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 7
3 Anja Beranek GER 05:03:17 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 9
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 05:03:29 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 26
5 Jodie Cunnama GBR 05:04:50 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 9
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 05:05:46 IM New Zealand on 2017-03-04 4
7 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:06:21 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 17
8 Tine Deckers BEL 05:06:29 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 17
9 Mary Beth Ellis USA 05:06:41 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 19
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 05:06:47 IM UK on 2017-07-16 16

TOP 10 Run-Rated Ironman Distance Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

While Jan Frodeno continues to be the top ranked runner, Patrik Nelson (new #2, up from #7) and Bart Aernouts (new #3, up from #6) have climbed the ranks.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 02:46:22 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 8
2 Patrik Nilsson SWE 02:48:11 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 8
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 02:48:56 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 11
4 David McNamee GBR 02:48:59 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 6
5 Matt Hanson USA 02:49:11 IM Texas on 2017-04-22 10
6 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 02:49:48 IM Lanzarote on 2017-05-20 8
7 Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 02:51:13 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 19
8 Jeff Symonds CAN 02:51:16 IM Germany on 2017-07-09 7
9 Ivan Rana ESP 02:51:25 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 12
10 Diego Van Looy BEL 02:51:33 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

No changes for Rinny in the #1 spot, but Kaisa is now ranked #2 after Daniela was struggling a bit towards the end of the marathon in Roth. Lisa Roberts has improved her rating running 2:56 in Roth, while Rachel Joyce is back among the best runners after her win in Boulder.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # IM Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 02:57:04 IM Hawaii on 2016-10-08 14
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 03:03:27 IM South Africa on 2017-04-02 4
3 Daniela Ryf SUI 03:03:35 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 10
4 Kristin Moeller GER 03:04:06 IM Cairns on 2017-06-11 22
5 Lisa Roberts USA 03:04:59 Challenge Roth on 2017-07-09 16
6 Eva Wutti AUT 03:05:01 IM Austria on 2017-07-02 7
7 Kelly Williamson USA 03:05:11 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 15
8 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 03:06:42 IM Arizona on 2016-11-20 4
9 Susie Cheetham GBR 03:07:14 IM Brasil on 2017-05-28 6
10 Rachel Joyce GBR 03:07:22 IM Boulder on 2017-06-11 17

Kona Qualifying Before the Last July Races

This post looks at Kona Qualifying before the remaining July races:

Date Type Race Points
23-Jul IM Ironman Lake Placid – MPRO ONLY P-2000
23-Jul IM Ironman France P-2000
23-Jul 70.3 70.3 Calgary P-500
30-Jul IM Ironman Switzerland P-2000
30-Jul 70.3 70.3 Ecuador P-750
30-Jul IM Ironman Canada – WPRO ONLY P-2000

The following assessments are built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assume that there are not going to be any late entries. For both male and the female qualifying, no one racing in Calgary is able to affect qualifying.

If you want to stay up-to-date on Kona Pro qualifying, please subscribe to the KPR Observer – I send out regular email updates analyzing the latest developments, and for the remainder of the qualifying season it’s available at a reduced price of 19$.

Women’s Qualifying

There are 28 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the female Pros in July. (There will be another 7 in August.) The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the last qualifying slots:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
21 Corbin, Linsey 4725 2+2 (1900/320) also registered for IM Canada
22 Hauschildt, Melissa 4700 1+1
23 Grohmann, Katharina 4470 3+1 (960/140) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
24 Brandon, Lauren 4425 2+2 (1600/515)
25 Abraham, Corinne 4400 3+1 (960/240)
26 McCauley, Jocelyn 4385 3+0 (385/0)
Kessler, Meredith 4265 3+1 (235/750) Going to decline (pregnant)
27 Luxford, Annabel 4230 1+2 (960/1500) also registered for IM France
28 Chura, Haley 4180 1+2 (2890/540)

As you can see, I’m not counting Meredith Kessler as she is pregnant and will decline her slot. This also assumes that Lucy Gossage is going to decline her slot as she has said numerous times. (The “formal declines” can only happen after the end of July qualifying when Ironman asks athletes to accept their slots.)

With these reasonable assumptions, Haley Chura currently occupies the last qualifying slot with 4.180 points. (She has the same number of points as Kristin Möller but has the better tie-breaker top score.) The following table lists what each of the athletes that can still catch her will need, even if that is not necessarily enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Haley, there can still be others that further leap ahead).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Bartlett, Nikki 4055 3+1 (855/640) IM France, but unlikely to race 3rd
Lester, Carrie 3535 1+1 IM France 5th
Mack, Danielle 3450 3+0 (170/0) IM Canada 4th
Li, Shiao-yu 3145 3+1 (540/320) IM Switzerland 2nd
Joyce, Rachel 3140 1+2 (2000/220) IM Canada 3rd
Elmore, Malindi 3130 2+2 (1070/140) IM Canada 3rd
Holst, Tine 3035 3+1 (340/400) IM Switzerland 2nd
Schaerer, Celine 3000 3+1 (515/345) IM Switzerland 1st
DiMichele Miller, Leslie 2905 3+1 (230/220) IM Canada 2nd

Men’s Qualifying

There are 40 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the male Pros in July. (There will be another 10 in August.) Here are the male Pros in the last qualifying ranks:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
27 Plese, David 3775 3+1 (960/785) also registered for IM Switzerland
28 Duelsen, Marc 3765 3+1 (540/540)
29 Vinhal, Thiago 3740 2+1 also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
30 Rana, Ivan 3740 2+2 (30/45)
31 Kotshegarov, Kirill 3710 3+0 (340/0)
32 Kastelein, Nick 3690 1+2 (1280/640) also registered for IM Switzerland
33 Thomas, Jesse 3420 2+2 (1100/400) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
34 Molinari, Giulio 3395 3+1 (720/750)
35 Colucci, Reinaldo 3390 1+2 (2455/435) also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
36 Fox, Michael 3355 3+1 (405/320)
37 Tohara, Kaito 3330 3+1 (230/220) also registered for IM France
38 McMahon, Brent 3170 2+2 (340/605) also registered for IM Lake Placid
39 Evoe, Patrick 3163 3+1 (8/540)  also registered for 70.3 Ecuador
40 Wiltshire, Harry 3085 2+2 (305/280) also registered for IM Switzerland

Currently Harry Wiltshire occupies the last qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that some are going to score and more than 3.085 points will be needed. The following table lists athletes that can get to at least 3.300 points and the results needed for that:

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Wild, Ruedi (Not Validated) 3310 1+2 (340/540) IM Switzerland Finish
Fontana, Daniel 2860 2+2 (515/135) IM France, IM Switzerland 5th
Croneborg, Fredrik 2820 1+2 (2000/320) IM France 6th
Sapunov, Daniil 2710 3+1 (685/345) IM Switzerland 3rd
Degasperi, Alessandro 2690 2+1 IM France, IM Switzerland 5th
Weiss, Michael 2665 3+1 (235/750) IM Lake Placid 4th
Van Berkel, Jan 2475 1+2 (2090/145) IM Switzerland 4th
Chrabot, Matt 2460 1+2 (1600/220) IM Lake Placid 4th
Chevrot, Denis 2450 2+2 (340/640) IM France 3rd
Leiferman, Chris 2420 1+2 (1280/500) IM Lake Placid 4th
Llanos, Eneko 2165 3+1 (215/10) IM France 2nd
Wurf, Cameron 1925 3+1 (40/35) IM France, IM Switzerland 2nd
Tollakson, TJ 1860 1+2 (1280/180) IM Lake Placid 2nd
Graves, Philip 1850 3+1 (5/220) IM Switzerland 2nd
Koutny, Philipp 1680 3+1 (170/140) IM Switzerland 1st
Zyemtsev, Viktor 1675 1+2 (1280/115) IM France 1st
Hovgaard, Esben 1565 3+1 (290/195) IM Switzerland 1st
Santos, Fellipe 1435 1+2 (855/180) IM Switzerland 1st

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