Archive | IM Brasil

Ironman Brasil 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, the winning times in Brasil have been very fast. But while the top three women have gone sub-9 (and and the next three were less than two minutes above 9 hours), only the male winner Tim Don went sub-8. But what a sub-8 time it was! Tim Don’s 7:40:23 is the second fastest time ever on the full Ironman distance.

Looking at the averages, this year’s race in Florianopolis (adjustment of 25:40) was a bit faster than typical (course rating of 22:03). This year both the swim and the run were quicker than normal. The bike was pretty normal – with the exception of Tim Don’s bike split of 4:06:56 (new bike course record, improving on Marino Vanhoenacker’s 4:11:23 from 2015). Of course Tim also posted a new overall course record, as did female winner Susie Cheetham. Susie’s 8:52:00 improved on Liz Lyles’ 8:54 from last year.

Male Race Results

The swim resulted in a pretty big group leaving T1, but as soon as Tim Don was on the bike, he took control of the race. He was putting four minutes into the rest of the field within 30k, the gap was 10 minutes after 90k and grew to more than 20 minutes in T2. It seems that being in the lead provides some extra power in Brazil (possibly from the lead moto?), we’ve seen a race similar development last year when Brent gapped the rest of the field on the bike. I don’t want to take away from Tim’s race (his run split proved he was the strongest on race day), but the way the race unfolded raises serious questions. Ironman needs to look into them and improve the fairness of the race for next year in order to provide an environment that is in line with Brasil’s Regional Championship status. After Tim’s massive bike split there was some doubt whether he might have overpriced, but he also posted the fast run of the day, winning the race with a gap of 25 minutes.

Second place went to Kyle Buckingham who was only in the second bigger bike group. He had the second best run and was able to overtake everyone but Tim, securing second place by just one minute. The next four spots went to Brazilians: Igor Amorelli had a very balanced race taking third place, Reinaldo Colucci was in the Top 3 for most of the day but ended up in fourth, while Thiago Vinhal and Luis Ohde had solid days to finish fifth and sixth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Tim Don GBR 00:44:16 04:06:56 02:44:46 07:40:23 -25:22 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:47:12 04:28:48 02:45:18 08:05:43 -04:55 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:23 04:27:20 02:51:00 08:06:58 -07:04 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:44:22 04:26:58 02:53:58 08:10:04 -19:33 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:45:44 04:30:08 02:50:35 08:11:46 -19:39 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 00:46:18 04:30:15 02:51:29 08:12:45 -06:38 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:07 04:26:30 02:54:04 08:16:26 -15:59 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:51 04:37:40 02:48:05 08:19:17 -05:58 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Fellipe Santos BRA 00:44:27 04:38:05 02:55:49 08:23:40 -18:14 US$ 1,500 855
10 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:50:58 04:35:21 02:56:00 08:27:27 01:17 US$ 1,000 685
11 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:16 04:39:24 03:01:38 08:32:56 05:56 515
12 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:51:05 04:44:47 03:06:36 08:48:53 -11:49 385
13 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:44:12 04:39:49 03:27:28 08:56:45 -18:03 290
14 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 00:47:36 04:44:32 03:19:05 08:56:45 n/a 215
15 Andreas Raelert GER 00:44:30 04:27:16 03:45:59 09:02:20 1:03:24 160
16 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:44:14 05:13:51 03:01:50 09:05:05 39:34 120
17 Rodrigo Sanchez ARG 00:55:55 05:18:38 03:02:55 09:25:31 n/a 90
18 Christian Carletto ARG 00:53:18 04:56:24 03:40:06 09:36:43 18:35 70
19 Eduardo Diaz ARG 00:56:08 05:19:17 03:39:37 10:03:06 n/a 50
20 Diego Vasquez ECU 00:57:20 04:48:10 05:27:30 11:21:40 n/a 40
Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:04 04:29:24 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:44:21 04:32:27 DNF
Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:54 04:37:40 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:44:27 DNF
Matt Chrabot USA 00:46:35 DNF
Eneko Llanos ESP 00:47:40 DNF
Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:48:49 DNF
Bruno Matheus BRA 00:48:59 DNF
Josef Svoboda CZE 01:07:21 DNF

Female Race Results

While Tim was leading the race pretty much from start to finish and building his lead all day, there were a lot more position changes in the female race. As expected Haley Chura was the T1 leader, after the swim there weren’t many athletes close to each other. Susie Cheetham was just two and a half minutes back, and it took even Susie 90k to make up the gap to Haley. Behind them there formed a larger group which was lead for a long time by Mareen Hufe, taking  a large number of females along to sub-5-hour bike splits. Mareen was able to break away from the others only in the last 30k of the bike, so in T2 she was three minutes behind Haley and Susie, having posted the fastest bike split of the day.

On the run Haley wasn’t quite ready to accept that Susie was the stronger runner, but in the end Susie’s 3:02 marathon proved to be too strong for Haley and the rest of the field. Susie worked hard in the last part  to be sure she’d go sub-9, she posted a new course record and won the race with a gap of more than five minutes. Behind her there were a few last minute changes: Second place went to Sonja Tajsich (running exactly the same split as Susie) who had the best run of women in the bike chase group. She was able to beat Haley (who finished third) by just one minute, Sonja and and Haley also went sub-9. Fourth place went to Gurutze Frades by 13 seconds over Linsey Corbin who had to sit out a bike penalty in T2. Linsey passed Mareen late on the run, Mareen ended up just 31 seconds behind Linsey in sixth place. The best marathon of the day – a 2:58 – was run by Kristin Moeller, but she had lost too much time on the bike to finish better than 11th.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:50:42 04:53:02 03:02:41 08:52:00 03:01 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:55:42 04:53:48 03:02:41 08:57:36 -09:53 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Haley Chura USA 00:48:09 04:55:18 03:09:30 08:58:45 -09:30 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:55:38 04:53:20 03:06:42 09:01:00 -18:22 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Linsey Corbin USA 00:54:41 04:54:12 03:01:45 09:01:13 07:59 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Mareen Hufe GER 00:55:31 04:51:16 03:09:15 09:01:44 -02:34 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:55:35 04:53:44 03:10:04 09:04:59 -07:54 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Pamela Tastets CHI 00:53:08 04:55:51 03:12:57 09:07:56 -04:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 00:55:33 05:04:39 03:00:38 09:08:16 02:53 US$ 1,500 855
10 Magali Tisseyre CAN 00:50:15 04:58:40 03:14:12 09:09:49 n/a US$ 1,000 685
11 Kristin Moeller GER 00:55:33 05:12:47 02:58:42 09:12:43 -03:40 515
12 Bruna Mahn BRA 00:54:42 05:14:51 03:12:16 09:27:26 -18:09 385
13 Nicole Valentine USA 00:55:32 05:09:51 03:19:40 09:30:37 -12:25 290
14 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:55:13 05:00:16 04:02:48 10:03:52 12:16 215
15 Erika Simon ARG 00:59:14 05:30:17 03:33:44 10:10:53 n/a 160
Brooke Brown CAN 00:58:17 05:12:10 DNF
Celine Schaerer SUI 00:49:11 DNF
Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:53:04 DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here’s the notable changes in Kona Qualifying on the male side (projected July cutoff 3.500 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Tim Don
  • Safe for a July slot: Kyle Buckingham (6.450), Igor Amorelli (3.933)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Thiago Vinhal (3.725), Reinaldo Colucci (3.390)
  • Close (but more points needed): Patrick Evoe (3.163)

On the female side (projected cutoff 4.300 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Susie Cheetham
  • Safe for a July slot: Mareen Hufe (5.020), Gurutze Frades (4.915), Linsey Corbin (4,725)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Haley Chura (4.180)
  • Close (but more points needed): Sonja Tajsich (3.400), Lisi Gruber (3.175)

TriTrivia for IM Brasil

Here are a few “fun questions” about the top female and male contenders for IM Brasil. Can you guess which athletes I’m referring to? (If you need some help, the full Pro startlist can be found here. The solutions are posted at the bottom.)

  1. He/she finished second at IM South Africa with a wire in the arm as a pin for a broken elbow.
  2. He/she dropped the Kona GPS tracker in a porta-loo.
  3. He/she strained a muscle on the bike portion of IM Austria, but still ran a marathon PR.
  4. He/she had a Kona meltdown of PNF proportions .. running in 8th place at 37k, eventually finishing 21st.
  5. He/she started Kona with what turned out to be a broken fibula – a DNF probably prevented more severe damage.
  6. He/she tore a ligament in the hand, requiring a three week break from swimming and missing some early 2017 races.
  7. After Kona last year, he/she added a new member to the family .. a cute puppy.

If you need some hints, check out my previews for the male and female races, the athletes that “match” the facts above are (in alphabetical order):

  1. Susie Cheetham
  2. Haley Chura
  3. Linsey Corbin
  4. Tim Don
  5. Mareen Hufe
  6. Brent McMahon
  7. Andreas Raelert

Here are the matches: 1A 2D 3G 4E 5B 6F 7C

Ironman Brasil (May 27th) – Seedings

IMBra_LogoThe third of the Regional Championships is coming up – lots of Kona points, decent prize money and automatic qualifying spots for the two winners have attracted strong fields.

Update May 12th: Based on the latest startlist I added bib for Mareen Hufe, added Felipe Manente, and removed Alicia Kaye.

Update May 23rd: I’ve added a detailed preview for the Men’s Race.

Update May 25th: There’s also a detailed preview for the Female Race.

Update May 27th: Laurel Wassner won’t be racing Brasil, she’s now targeting one of the European Ironman races.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:53:44 Ariane Monticeli (BRA) 08:59:08
2016 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:46:10 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:54:10

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:47 04:11:54 02:42:52 07:46:10
2 Tim Don GBR 00:47:49 04:22:01 02:50:27 08:04:15
3 Kevin Collington USA 00:47:58 04:23:48 02:48:48 08:04:58

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:56:52 04:48:37 03:03:48 08:54:10
2 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:22 04:51:32 03:11:02 09:09:36
3 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:01:26 05:00:36 03:08:54 09:15:52

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:46:10 Brent McMahon 2016-05-29
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:11:23 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Run overall 02:42:52 Brent McMahon 2016-05-29
Total female 08:54:10 Elizabeth Lyles 2016-05-29
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 02:56:28 Ariane Monticeli 2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 21:43.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 26:07 02:15 07:01 04:41 37 26:07 02:15 07:01 04:41
2007 19:38 00:14 07:38 03:25 40 22:52 01:15 07:19 04:03
2008 13:11 -06:09 14:07 -00:36 45 19:38 -01:13 09:35 02:30
2009 22:14 00:15 11:28 04:42 39 20:17 -00:51 10:03 03:03
2010 26:28 04:18 09:25 00:26 42 21:32 00:11 09:56 02:32
2011 25:42 n/a n/a n/a 29 22:13 00:11 09:56 02:32
2012 20:18 02:37 22:28 -05:16 32 21:57 00:35 12:01 01:14
2013 18:33 02:57 17:03 03:13 41 of 45 21:31 00:55 12:44 01:31
2014 26:59 00:48 22:40 04:39 34 of 40 22:08 00:54 13:59 01:54
2015 21:31 00:23 19:50 05:47 33 of 47 22:04 00:51 14:38 02:20
2016 18:17 -00:21 18:20 03:49 27 of 39 21:43 00:44 15:00 02:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:45
Female Pro Start 06:50
Age Group Wave Start 07:05 – 07:35
First Male in T1  0:46  7:31
First Female in T1  0:48  7:38
First Male in T2  5:05  11:50
First Female in T2  5:51  12:41 pm
Male Winner  7:50  2:35pm
Female Winner  8:55  3:45 pm

Florianopolis is on Brasilia Time, 3 hours behind UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • + 13 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 7:45pm
  • + 5: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 11:45am
  • +4  hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 10:45am
  • – 1 hour: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 5:45am
  • – 4 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 2:45am

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 29% of a typical Kona field.

Ty Butterfield is safe for Kona after his third place in Texas and unlikely to race. I have put his name in brackets as he is still on the official list.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Brent McMahon CAN 07:49:28 08:16:06 00:46:13 04:14:06 02:44:08 80% +0% -20% (7) 4
2 36 Andreas Raelert GER 08:01:19 08:29:46 00:47:53 04:17:39 02:50:47 22% +10% -68% (21) 28
3 2 Tim Don GBR 08:03:14 08:32:43 00:46:27 04:22:01 02:49:46 64% +0% -36% (4) 40
4 6 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:03:39 08:41:47 00:47:01 04:32:21 02:39:17 43% +0% -57% (2) (75)
(5) 11 (Tyler Butterfield) BMU 08:04:10 08:31:23 00:47:39 04:18:37 02:52:54 37% +32% -30% (14) 34
6 3 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:08:08 08:40:48 00:46:34 04:20:53 02:55:41 28% +17% -54% (14) 70
7 42 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:08:48 08:28:55 00:47:26 04:16:21 03:00:01 92% +0% -8% (29) 26
8 53 Paul Matthews AUS 08:09:04 08:40:04 00:46:09 04:23:22 02:54:32 37% +0% -63% (13) 68
9 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:09:10 08:33:44 00:48:09 04:23:01 02:53:00 51% +17% -32% (12) 42
10 51 Matt Chrabot USA 08:09:35 08:44:38 00:47:23 04:23:55 02:53:17 8% +34% -58% (5) (82)
11 44 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:10:16 09:12:33 00:46:45 04:26:57 02:51:33 1% +35% -64% (12) 172
12 54 Pedro Gomes POR 08:14:42 08:35:16 00:51:38 04:27:46 02:50:18 67% +1% -31% (25) 54
13 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:16:36 08:39:00 00:49:24 04:25:35 02:56:37 66% +18% -16% (13) 63
14 47 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:21:01 08:56:42 00:48:46 04:32:45 02:54:30 31% +62% -7% (7) 122
15 43 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:22:10 08:52:12 00:51:20 04:27:07 02:58:43 41% +38% -21% (11) 103
16 50 Mario De Elias ARG 08:22:58 08:54:17 00:50:26 04:33:23 02:54:09 32% +38% -30% (8) 110
17 48 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 08:23:59 08:53:20 00:46:59 04:34:39 02:57:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (109)
18 37 Barrett Brandon USA 08:25:09 08:49:18 00:46:22 04:33:37 03:00:10 63% +0% -37% (8) 95
19 5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:27:06 09:02:07 00:46:39 04:34:50 03:00:37 31% +20% -49% (20) 145
20 56 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 08:27:17 08:52:55 00:47:47 04:27:28 03:07:02 89% +11% -0% (6) (106)
21 55 Philipp Koutny * SUI 08:28:23 09:00:58 00:50:06 04:28:54 03:04:23 26% +0% -74% (4) (142)
22 10 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:29:37 09:00:08 00:47:54 04:40:47 02:55:57 72% +18% -10% (12) 136
23 58 Sylvain Sudrie FRA 08:29:53 09:04:38 00:49:06 04:33:24 03:02:23 53% +0% -47% (2) (153)
24 52 Patrick Evoe USA 08:35:20 09:00:50 00:54:36 04:29:39 03:06:05 77% +4% -20% (25) 140
25 46 Fellipe Santos BRA 08:45:12 09:22:23 00:47:36 04:45:47 03:06:49 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (201)
(25) 61 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:54:11 09:37:13 00:52:17 04:44:33 03:12:21 18% +7% -75% (8) (237)
26 49 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 09:19:45 09:57:54 00:45:25 04:41:39 03:47:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (273)
27 39 Christian Carletto ARG 09:19:57 09:51:24 00:56:19 04:57:47 03:20:51 92% +8% -0% (9) 261
28 38 Bruno Matheus BRA 09:31:37 10:10:34 00:49:22 05:06:43 03:30:32 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (280)
29 7 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:00:33 11:51:37 01:14:31 05:36:55 04:04:06 54% +18% -28% (16) 299
40 Diego Vasquez ECU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Eduardo Diaz ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Felipe Van de Wyngard CHI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Rodrigo Sanchez ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
59 Vinicius Canhedo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note:Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 24% of a typical Kona field.

There are some questions about the start list as published by Ironman. Therefore I have included Mareen Hufe in my calculations as I’m aware that she fully intends to race and was included in earlier versions of the entry list. Alicia Kaye is safe for Kona after her fourth place in Texas and unlikely to race another full IM before Kona. I have put Alicia’s name in brackets as she is still on the official list.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Susie Cheetham GBR 08:54:32 09:14:17 00:53:30 04:53:31 03:02:32 78% +0% -22% (6) 6
2 29 Linsey Corbin USA 08:56:41 09:18:58 00:56:53 04:52:16 03:02:32 89% +11% -0% (21) 10
3 60 Mareen Hufe GER 09:05:07 09:30:03 00:59:20 04:47:17 03:13:30 76% +15% -8% (23) 28
4 34 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:06:36 09:33:03 01:00:46 04:51:26 03:09:24 71% +6% -23% (22) (32)
5 23 Haley Chura USA 09:08:54 09:39:36 00:48:10 04:58:17 03:17:27 64% +14% -22% (9) (43)
6 18 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:09:35 09:37:10 01:01:00 04:58:48 03:04:47 94% +6% -0% (8) 37
(7) 12 (Alicia Kaye) USA 09:12:13 09:37:25 00:50:59 04:58:33 03:17:42 59% +41% -0% (3) 38
8 22 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:15:17 09:45:05 00:59:51 05:02:27 03:07:59 51% +29% -20% (8) 52
9 28 Laurel Wassner USA 09:16:07 09:44:50 00:53:15 05:07:31 03:10:22 63% +16% -21% (10) 51
10 13 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:16:24 09:50:26 00:56:54 04:57:00 03:17:30 68% +0% -32% (4) 61
11 17 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:17:45 09:44:26 00:50:12 05:04:19 03:18:13 89% +0% -11% (8) 50
12 27 Kristin Moeller GER 09:18:10 09:48:30 01:01:48 05:11:16 03:00:06 69% +7% -24% (22) 56
13 26 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:18:13 10:02:13 00:58:01 05:08:33 03:06:40 32% +0% -68% (2) (78)
14 33 Pamela Tastets CHI 09:18:17 09:56:19 00:55:57 05:00:57 03:16:22 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
15 15 Brooke Brown CAN 09:28:25 10:09:10 01:00:56 05:04:09 03:18:20 35% +0% -65% (10) 94
16 31 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:31:52 10:26:31 00:58:26 05:01:42 03:26:44 11% +38% -51% (12) 125
17 32 Nicole Valentine USA 09:40:35 10:22:26 01:03:28 05:18:08 03:14:00 46% +54% -0% (2) (116)
18 24 Jenny Fletcher CAN 09:41:29 10:15:27 00:56:37 05:09:39 03:30:13 100% +0% -0% (2) (107)
19 14 Ashley Paulson USA 09:45:33 10:20:16 01:11:18 05:17:21 03:11:54 69% +0% -31% (4) 113
20 20 Bruna Mahn BRA 09:52:15 10:24:53 00:55:23 05:25:59 03:25:53 46% +54% -0% (2) (122)
21 25 Kate Bruck USA 09:58:20 10:33:25 01:02:10 05:24:14 03:26:57 60% +0% -40% (4) 138
16 Carolina Furriela BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Erika Simon ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Magali Tisseyre CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner (and course record holder) Brent McMahon is back to defend his title. His prep was not without issues as he needed a procedure on his hand after crashing in SuperLeague and missed some swimming. Still he’s the clear favorite. Still he faces strong competition, most notably by Tim Don, Kyle Buckingham and German veteran Andreas Raelert who is hopefully fully recovered from the injuries that led to his Kona DNF.

  • Brent McMahon: 49% (1-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 17% (5-1)
  • Tim Don: 9% (10-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 7% (14-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 6% (17-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 3% (28-1)
  • Fabio Carvalho: 3% (37-1)

In the paragraph above I have not mentioned Tyler Butterfield as he is already safe for Kona (after finishing third in Texas) and therefore unlikely to race. Removing him from the participants would increase Brent McMahon’s winning chances to 54% and slightly increase everybody else’s chances.

Female Race Participants

The female race does not have a clear favorite as with Linsey Corbin and Susie Cheetham there are two athletes from my overall Top 10. The odds slightly favor Linsey, the expected time sees Susie slightly ahead – hard to pick a frontrunner at this point. But there are a few more athletes that will make this race interesting to follow: Mareen Hufe has been slowly improving and seems to be ready to finally win an Ironman race after six second places so far (including her three last IMs and IM Brasil 2016). Sonja Tajsich is back to racing after giving birth to her second daughter Julia. And Haley Chura has recovered from injuries, raced well in her 70.3 races this year and just loves racing in Brasil!

  • Linsey Corbin: 33% (2-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 28% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 19% (4-1)
  • Haley Chura: 9% (10-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 4% (23-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 4% (27-1)
  • Elisabeth Gruber: 2% (65-1)

Kona Qualifying Situation

As IM Brasil is a Regional Championship and there is Automatic Qualifier spots for the winners, every participant has a chance to qualify for Kona. Also the P-4000 race has a lot of KPR points so there are a lot of athletes that should be able to qualify even without winning the race. Here are the minimum finishes for most of the participants.

Male Race Participants

The male cutoff for July is projected to be around 3.500 points.

  • 10th or better (at least 685 points): Kyle Buckingham
  • 9th (855 points) or better: Brent McMahon, Harry Wiltshire
  • 8th (1070 points) or better: Tim Don
  • 6th (1670 points) or better: Patrick Evoe
  • 5th (2090 points) or better: Ivan Tutukin, Thiago Vinhal
  • 4th (2455 points) or better: Esben Hovgaard, Igor Amorelli, Mario de Elias
  • 3rd (2890 points) or better: Guilherme Manocchio, Renaldo Colucci, Felipe Van de Wyngard, Matt Chrabot

Female Race Participants

The female cutoff is likely to be around 4.300 points.

  • 9th (855 points) or better: Susie Cheetham
  • 8th (1070 points) or better: Mareen Hufe
  • 6th (1670 points) or better: Celine Schärer, Linsey Corbin
  • 5th (2090 points) or better: Gurutze Frades, Lisi Gruber
  • 3rd (2890 points) or better: Annah Watkinson, Pamela Tastets

Detailed Men’s Preview

In the past few years there have often been discussion how much drafting has influenced the Brasil results and finishing times. The course is very fast, but there have been years when large groups formed that the referees were not able to break up. Last year’s winner Brent McMahon avoided any drafting discussion by winning the race from the front. He built a solid lead on the bike and ended up posting a very fast new course record of 7:46:10.

McMahon

Photo: Brent leading a group of cyclists in the bike leg in Kona. (Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Brent returns this year to defend his title and is the clear favorite for the South American Regional Championships. His preparation did not go completely according to plan: He hurt his hand in mid-March when racing SuperLeague and needed surgery. He had to take three weeks off from swim training, but was able to return to racing ahead of schedule with a 6th place at St. George in early May. He seems to be ready for a solid race in Florianopolis. He still needs some points for Kona, but a 9th place gives him quite a lot of “buffer” and it’s unlikely that he’ll “just play it safe”.

Don

Last year’s second place finisher was Tim Don. Tim is mostly racing 70.3s and is always placing very well: His 2017 results include two wins at 70.3 Campeche and 70.3 Liuzhou and 4th place at 70.3 St. George. An eighth place finish should be sufficient for him to qualify for Kona, and even if placing really well in Brasil is probably not his main goal I’m sure he wouldn’t mind winning the race. In order to do that when Brent is racing well, Tim will need to step up his bike performance and try to stick with Brent on the bike and also on the run. I don’t think he’ll risk completely blowing, it’s more likely that he’ll be racing his own race and finish on the podium but probably not on the top spot.

Photo: Tim running towards a 15th place finish at Kona 2015. (Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

While I’m reasonably sure that Tim is going to have a solid race, there is more doubt about Andreas Raelert. Andy’s last longer race was in Kona after an injury-plagued 2016 season that saw him qualify in the last possible race –  probably at a time when wasn’t completely healthy, resulting in a disappointing DNF.

Raelert

Photo: Andy on the bike at Kona 2015 where he was able to finish in second place. (Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Andy has taken extra time during the winter to get healthy again, his fifth place at the shorter Cannes triathlon seems to indicate he’s back to running well. But Brasil is his first IM after the injury and he won’t know at what level he is until very late in the race. Even as a 40-year old he still targets a top finish in Kona, but he starts this season with zero Kona points. In order to have a shot at qualifying he needs a podium result, so he’ll have to be racing aggressively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him try to bridge up to Brent and challenge him for the win – but his race could also end on the bike when his injury flares up again.

Another 40-year old athlete is Spaniard Eneko Llanos. He is always in a decent position in T2, but in his last long distance races he struggled to have a solid run and that’s required to place well in big Ironman races these days. A 3:11 run in South Africa saw him finish in 14th place, he’ll be looking for some Kona points in Florianopolis. Kyle Buckingham finished fourth at IM South Africa and is in a much better position for Kona Qualifying, just a Top 10 result should be enough for him to secure a July slot which is certainly an attainable goal for him. Matt Chrabot and Pedro Gomes will have to be on the podium for a reasonable chance to qualify – while unlikely it’s not impossible for them.

The Brazilian hopes will be riding on Igor Amorelli. Igor has won IM Brasil in 2014 and is an athlete with a good swim-bike combo. He won’t be too far back in T2, but he’ll have to run close to his marathon PR of 2:49 if he wants to finish on the podium. If he wants to qualify for Kona, he’ll need to finish fourth or better. Fabio Carvalho is a strong swimmer, if he can limit the time he looses on the bike his good run could see him finish in a similar position to last year when he was sixth and top Brazilian. But he’s also has had some explosions on the run, so it’s hard to predict where he’ll finish. Another Brazilian athlete to watch is Thiago Vinhal. A fifth place should be enough for him to qualify for Kona – and as far as I know he’d be the first African American athlete to do so.

There are a couple of great swimmers in the field: Luiz Franciso Paiva could be leading the field early on in his second Pro Ironman. The more established Barrett Brandon could also be the fastest swimmer, or Kona swim leader Harry Wiltshire. But “winning the swim” is probably the highlight of their race day – most of the overall contenders won’t be too far behind and will quickly take control of the race once on the bike..

Likely Race Development: Brent will enter T1 with the front group and will quickly take the lead on the bike, eventually entering T2 with a gap of at least three but even more likely five minutes to his chasers. He’ll likely extend the lead on the run, winning the race and posting another sub-8 finish. Last year there was a big chase group behind Brent, and that a likely scenario for this year as well. With Tim in that group, he’s the most likely candidate for second place even if Andy has a good swim and manages to be part of the chase group. I’m not sure if he thinks his run will be good enough to secure second place from within the group, so he could try to break up the chase group and make things interesting. But there are about eight podium candidates, so the race will be very close until the end, even if the main question is probably who will join Brent for the champagne ceremony.

Detailed Women’s Preview

A couple of years ago, the Female Pro race in Brazil was pretty difficult for the participants: The Pros started at the same time as the agegroupers which often resulted in the leading women racing in the middle of the fastest agegroupers. When bigger groups formed, it was tough not to be sucked into drafting – there is a limit to how often you sit up to let a group of drafting males pass. Things have improved since the Pros have their own start and the agegroupers start at least 15 minutes behind the Pro women. Extra diligence by the referees ensures that most of the females Pros can ride without any “cross-pollination” from faster agegroup racers. And while the male Pros often have similar strengths and therefore ride in closer proximity, there is a bit more variation among the female Pros. In short, the WPRO race has become a lot fairer than around 2010. Hopefully, this will be the case this year as well!

Susie

My top pick for IM Brasil is Susie Cheetham. Susie entered the Pro scene in 2015 with a third place at IM South Africa and a sixth place in Kona. 2016 was an up-and-down year for her: At the start of the season she crashed in 70.3 South Africa, breaking her elbow (but still finished). She need surgery to insert a wire and she had a lot of bike sessions on the trainer to get in shape for IM South Africa where she was probably racing “above her fitness” and took second place. Afterwards she needed some extra time for recovery and only raced a couple of 70.3s over the summer. She felt she was in great shape for Kona but early on the bike she sustained a muscle injury and couldn’t put out any power. A DNF was the unfortunate consequence.

Her first 2017 races show that she has left the injury behind her: A second place at 70.3 South Africa was followed by an Ironman PR at IM South Africa – still “only” good for a third place. This put her on a good track for Kona qualifying, but she still needs another good race. She decided to not wait too long to secure Kona qualifying – IM Brasil is just eight weeks later. “Not too short a gap so that you’re too tired from the last Ironman but also not too long so that you can’t hold onto and build on the fitness from the previous block of training and the race itself. I’ve put in some really good sessions and tested myself against targets that show I’m in good shape. I go into the race knowing I’ve prepared well and I’m in a good place.”  Winning the race, running sub-3 or going sub-9 “would be incredible. I was close in South Africa so it’s certainly a possibility but it’s not my focus. First goal is to qualify, after that it’s to improve on my performance in South Africa.”

Photo: Susie winning 70.3 Dublin. (Credit: Getty for Ironman)

On paper Susie’s biggest challenge for the win can be expected from Linsey Corbin. Linsey, one of the most consistent Kona racers, struggled with a series of injuries in 2015.

Linsey

She has raced a number of 70.3s in 2016, and her two Ironman races (second at IM Cairns and 13th in Kona) were superb performances, even if “just short” of a win or Kona Top 10 that sponsors will be looking for. This year, she’d like to add a sixth Ironman title to her resume and has chosen to race IM Brasil “as my fitness is coming along nicely”. Her secondary goal is qualifying for Kona. While a win would take care of both of these goals, her “B goal” is likely a Top 5 finish which should give her enough points for a slot.

Photo: Linsey on the bike in Kona 2014. (Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Mareen

Third in my seedings is Mareen Hufe. She has had so many “almost” results that it’s hard to keep track: She was second in six Ironman races (including last year at IM Brasil) and also had a great 2015 Kona race .. except for that last few k on the run when she fell back from 8th place to an eventual 21st place finish. Mareen had to skip Kona 2016 when a niggle kept from doing decent run training, but she ended her 2016 season with two great second places (what else?) at IM Malaysia and IM Western Australia where she also went sub-9 for the first time. Mareen is one of the strongest female bike riders, but she has also improved on the run and seems to be “due” for a breakthrough performance.

Photo: Mareen on the run at IM Brasil 2015. (Credit: Private photo from Mareen)

HaleyHaley Chura is another athlete that has had her share of injury woes. After winning the Brazilian Ironman in Fortaleza in 2014 (the only time it was a Pro race), she qualified early for Kona 2015. In one of her final bike sessions before flying to the Big Island she was hit by a car and suffered injuries that nearly kept her from starting in Kona. She was able to finish the swim but then DNF’d on the bike. After she was waiting for some time for the injuries to heal, things did not get any better – until it was finally discovered that she had a broken fibula. Since returning to racing in the summer of 2016, she has been consistently getting stronger on the 70.3 distance. A third place at the 2017 season opener in Pucon was the first run in a long time where she felt strong , and she followed that up with a win at 70.3 Buenos Aires by making up six minutes on the run. IM Brasil is her first IM in two years, but her recent results indicate that she’s in a better shape than she’s been in the past.

Photo: Haley on the run at IM Fortaleza. (Credit: MundoTri)

These four athletes – Susie, Linsey, Mareen and Haley, are solid, experienced athletes that can be predicted with reasonable confidence. Two more athletes could also be in the mix but are much harder to predict: Sonja Tajsich‘s last international race was two years ago when she qualified for Kona with a third place at IM Copenhagen. However she suffered a stress fracture late in the run and was forced to decline her slot. A few weeks later she announced that she was pregnant. Since giving birth to her second daughter Julia she has done a few smaller races in Germany, but IM Brasil is a big step up and it’s unclear what she’ll be able to do after going hard for seven or eight hours. Another “unknown on the full distance” is Canadian Magali Tisseire who is stepping up to the long distance in Florianopolis. Coming from the excellent results in 70.3 races the main question for her will be if she’s patient enough to save enough energy for the last hour on the run when the final order will be decided.

As is typical for a field in a Regional Championship there is also a large group of good athletes that can finish on the podium on the right day. Examples include Gurutze Frades, a strong runner who was third at last year’s IM Brasil and fifth in South Africa 2017. Lisi Gruber is a member of Siri Lindley’s training group, she was second in Barcelona at the end of last year. Annah Watkinson was third in Barcelona, she had a frustrating DNF in her “home IM” in South Africa and will be very motivated to have a better result in Brasil. Kristin Moeller is another strong runner, she often looses a lot of time on the swim and bike but is able to consistently run under three hours. Laurel Wassner has managed to qualify for Kona a couple of times in the past years.

The Brazilian hopes were riding on 2015 champion Ariane Monticelli, but she has had a serious training accident and is unable to race. All the best wishes to her for a full recovery! Mariana Andrade, Bruna Mahn and Carolina Furriela (doing her first IM after some success on the half distance) will probably be happy if they manage to finish “in the money” by claiming a spot in the Top 10.

Likely Race Development: There can’t be many doubts that Haley Chura, consistently one of the best Ironman swimmers, is going to lead the race in T1. It’ll be interesting to see how large the time gaps to the other main contenders are going to be – the expected gaps are five minutes to Susie, about eight minutes to Linsey and eleven minutes to Mareen. The capabilities on the bike are exactly reversed: Mareen should be the fastest on the bike, nominally overtaking Linsey and Susie and almost closing the gap to Haley. It’ll be interesting to see how Mareen paces the bike (in Western Australia she had a very strong second half of the bike) and if Linsey and Susie will try to go with her. We may very well have all four top contenders enter T2 in just a minute or two. Susie and Linsey have the exact same expected time for the run, it would be an awesome run duel if they start the run within sight of each other. Mareen would need a gap to these two great runners to have a shot at winning the race, but she’s worked hard to improve her run so I don’t think that Susie and Linsey should feel confident to catch her unless she is within five minutes of them. Nominally, Haley is the weakest runner of the four, but she has also made improvements on the run and if things go right for her she should set a new marathon PR (currently 3:15 from her win at Fortaleza). Adding in the “wild cards” of Sonja and Magali into the mix of these four, the female race promises to be a constant back and forth among the athletes – and very hard to predict who will end up on top and on the podium.

Ironman Brasil 2017 (May 27th) – Entry List

IM Brasil is the third of the Regional Championships for 2017. For now, there are a couple of names on the list that probably only had Brasil as a back-up race for IM Texas. For example, Texas has gone well for Tyler Butterfield (3rd) and Alicia Kaye (5th) – both are safe for a Kona slot and unlikely to race in Florianopolis. Harry Wiltshire had a DNF in Texas, so he may need his “backup”. Some more athletes are chasing hard for their Kona slots: Susie Cheetham, Annah Watkinson and Jenny Fletcher have raced IM South Africa and Kristin Möller DNF’d – they still need more points to make it to Kona.

Update April 29th: Liz Lyles announced on Instagram that she won’t race Brasil but will focus on IM Frankfurt instead.

Update May 11th: Added Mariana Andrade, Kate Bruck, Bruna Mahn, Laurel Wassner, Eneko Llanos, Brent McMahon, Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira and Ivan Tutukin. Also Updated the KPR points and added preliminary bibs. Based on the latest list Michael McKernan, Maren Hufe, Caroline Livesey, and Jessica Jones are not racing, but I’m pretty sure that Mareen still plans to race.

Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
11 Tyler Butterfield BMU 4040 1+2 (2890/435)
1 Brent McMahon CAN 3170 2+2 (340/605)
8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 3050 1+2 (2455/55)
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 3040 3+1 (235/500)
2 Tim Don GBR 2515 0+2 (0/920)
9 Leon Griffin AUS 2025 1+2 (1335/345)
52 Patrick Evoe USA 1828 2+1
6 Ivan Tutukin RUS 1700 1+1
10 Thiago Vinhal BRA 1600 1+0
43 Esben Hovgaard DEN 1135 2+1
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 1043 1+2 (3/500)
50 Mario De Elias ARG 1040 1+2 (160/240)
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 1025 2+2 (230/75)
56 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 935 0+2 (0/435)
45 Felipe Van de Wyngard CHI 755 0+2 (0/320)
51 Matt Chrabot USA 665 0+2 (0/25)
54 Pedro Gomes POR 585 1+2 (540/10)
46 Fellipe Santos BRA 580 0+2 (0/180)
42 Eneko Llanos ESP 565 2+1
48 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 540 1+2 (120/100)
55 Philipp Koutny SUI 430 2+1
37 Barrett Brandon USA 340 1+1
49 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 320 0+1
38 Bruno Matheus BRA 288 1+2 (3/45)
44 Fabio Carvalho BRA 155 1+0
39 Christian Carletto ARG 115 0+1
57 Rodrigo Sanchez ARG 110 0+2 (0/10)
47 Frank Silvestrin BRA 45 0+1
59 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 35 0+1
7 Josef Svoboda CZE 15 1+0
41 Eduardo Diaz ARG 7 0+1
40 Diego Vasquez ECU 5 0+1
Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP
53 Paul Matthews AUS
36 Andreas Raelert GER
58 Sylvain Sudrie FRA

Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
12 Alicia Kaye USA 4870 2+2 (340/640)
35 Susie Cheetham GBR 3530 1+1
Mareen Hufe GER 3250 2+1
17 Celine Schaerer SUI 3000 3+1 (515/345)
Elizabeth Lyles USA 2685 2+1
29 Linsey Corbin USA 2635 1+2 (1900/320)
22 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 2325 2+0
18 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 2320 2+0
13 Annah Watkinson ZAF 1625 1+1
33 Pamela Tastets CHI 1485 1+2 (960/180)
23 Haley Chura USA 1290 0+2 (0/540)
30 Magali Tisseyre CAN 1165 0+1
26 Kirsty Jahn CAN 1125 0+2 (0/500)
Caroline Livesey GBR 1030 1+2 (685/125)
28 Laurel Wassner USA 960 1+2 (340/220)
27 Kristin Moeller GER 775 1+1
16 Carolina Furriela BRA 755 0+2 (0/320)
32 Nicole Valentine USA 620 1+2 (305/135)
14 Ashley Paulson USA 555 2+2 (85/20)
20 Bruna Mahn BRA 545 1+1
15 Brooke Brown CAN 540 1+0
19 Erika Simon ARG 240 0+2 (0/115)
31 Mariana Andrade BRA 100 0+1
24 Jenny Fletcher CAN 90 1+0
25 Kate Bruck USA
Jessica Jones USA
21 Carolin Lehrieder GER
34 Sonja Tajsich GER

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