Challenge Almere 2016 (Sep 10th) – Predictions

Update Aug 4th: I’ve updated the participants and odds based on the current startlist.

Previous Winners

Almere is one of the oldest triathlons in Europe, their first long distance race was in 1983. My data goes back to 2013 when the race joined the Challenge family.

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Bart Colpaert (BEL)	08:34:50	Susan Blatt (GER)	09:24:40
2014	Markus Fachbach (GER)	08:28:25	Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED)	09:16:26
2015	Markus Fachbach (GER)	08:12:24	Kathrin Walther (GER)	09:26:11

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Markus Fachbach	GER	00:48:56	04:25:18	02:54:01	08:12:24
2	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	00:48:47	04:25:32	02:59:29	08:18:14
3	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	00:51:37	04:26:45	02:59:14	08:22:29

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kathrin Walther	GER	00:59:12	04:56:48	03:23:23	09:26:11
2	Irene Kinnegim	NED	01:04:48	05:04:35	03:11:02	09:27:27
3	Camille Deligny	FRA	01:01:54	04:55:03	03:27:31	09:29:52

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:24	Markus Fachbach	2015-09-12
Swim	overall	00:44:25	Bart Colpaert	2014-09-13
Bike	overall	04:25:18	Markus Fachbach	2015-09-12
Run	overall	02:47:54	Dirk Wijnalda	2014-09-13
Total	female	09:16:26	Heleen Bij De Vaate	2014-09-13
Swim	female	00:51:37	Hillary Biscay	2013-09-14
Bike	female	04:55:03	Camille Deligny	2015-09-12
Run	female	03:10:59	Heleen Bij De Vaate	2014-09-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 10:01.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	05:32	00:21	02:01	03:40	30	05:32	00:21	02:01	03:40
2014	07:02	02:46	04:35	01:29	30 of 38	06:17	01:34	03:18	02:35
2015	17:27	00:31	16:05	04:15	36 of 43	10:01	01:13	07:34	03:08

Prize Money

Challenge Almere has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Jan Raphael	GER	08:31:57	08:38:06	00:48:26	04:37:38	03:00:53	94% +0% -6% (24)	52
2	6	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:34:37	08:53:46	00:51:21	04:37:38	03:00:38	96% +4% -0% (7)	101
3	1	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:34:49	08:59:46	00:55:10	04:41:15	02:53:23	43% +56% -1% (19)	128
4	8	Marek Jaskolka	POL	08:40:25	08:45:28	00:47:58	04:49:28	02:57:59	100% +0% -0% (7)	78
5	7	Matthias Knossalla	GER	08:40:56	09:03:09	01:02:56	04:32:37	03:00:22	29% +71% -0% (2)	(138)
6	2	Sergio Marques	POR	08:41:12	08:54:28	00:53:27	04:47:45	02:55:00	77% +5% -18% (36)	102
7	16	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	08:42:55	09:18:04	00:50:54	04:42:18	03:04:43	10% +28% -62% (4)	(189)
8	4	David Naesvik	SWE	08:46:30	09:01:40	00:53:43	04:38:41	03:09:05	70% +0% -30% (15)	132
9	24	Malte Bruns	GER	08:50:14	09:07:26	00:52:28	04:49:09	03:03:37	100% +0% -0% (2)	(157)
10	25	Pascal Ramali	GER	08:51:30	09:13:59	00:57:57	04:38:17	03:10:16	27% +0% -73% (3)	(180)
11	11	Youri Severin	NED	08:53:24	09:14:24	00:45:59	04:46:40	03:15:46	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(181)
12	5	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	08:57:49	09:17:39	00:47:09	04:44:08	03:21:32	22% +0% -78% (27)	(186)
13	10	Graeme Stewart	GBR	08:59:55	09:17:51	00:53:17	04:52:14	03:09:24	41% +7% -52% (13)	188
14	19	Peter Seidel	GER	09:04:09	09:32:46	00:52:20	04:36:40	03:30:10	30% +0% -70% (3)	228
15	20	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:08:37	09:27:23	00:57:23	04:54:17	03:11:58	39% +61% -0% (4)	215
16	9	Allan Hovda	NOR	09:09:31	09:27:43	01:03:42	04:55:09	03:05:39	100% +0% -0% (2)	(216)
17	14	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	09:19:22	09:41:23	00:51:02	05:08:05	03:15:15	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(248)
18	18	Josef Krivanek	CZE	09:23:04	09:49:33	00:56:29	04:59:37	03:21:58	63% +37% -0% (6)	(262)
19	21	Tjerk Tjallema	NED	09:44:15	10:10:16	00:51:00	05:25:04	03:23:11	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(280)
	15	Christian Otto	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Jarmo Rissanen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	Stefan Overmars	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	26	Patrick Hansen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	52	Mirjam Weerd	NED	09:29:48	09:39:58	00:52:41	05:07:59	03:24:09	85% +5% -10% (12)	50
2	54	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:31:34	09:36:12	00:58:44	05:10:29	03:17:21	85% +0% -14% (35)	39
3	56	Camille Deligny	FRA	09:40:16	10:06:07	01:01:20	05:04:25	03:29:31	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(98)
4	51	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:42:40	10:20:35	00:58:22	05:08:22	03:30:56	29% +26% -45% (9)	127
5	60	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	09:58:04	10:17:53	01:12:17	05:17:32	03:23:16	84% +16% -0% (7)	120
6	57	Simona Krivankova	CZE	10:11:05	10:35:09	01:09:05	05:32:26	03:24:34	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(151)
	59	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:17:18	unrated	01:01:49	05:33:12	03:37:18	59% +0% -41% (10)	n/a
	53	Ewa Bugdol	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	62	Julia Mai	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	63	Ilona Eversdijk	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	64	Lucie Van Genugten	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Jan Raphael: 31% (2-1)
• Dirk Wijnalda: 30% (2-1)
• Erik-Simon Strijk: 13% (6-1)
• Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
• Marek Jaskolka: 7% (13-1)
• Matthias Knossalla: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

• Mirjam Weerd: 60% (1-1)
• Erika Csomor: 25% (3-1)
• Kathrin Walther: 8% (12-1)
• Camille Deligny: 3% (31-1)
• Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (31-1)