Challenge Almere 2016 (Sep 10th) – Predictions

ChAlmereUpdate Aug 4th: I’ve updated the participants and odds based on the current startlist.

Previous Winners

Almere is one of the oldest triathlons in Europe, their first long distance race was in 1983. My data goes back to 2013 when the race joined the Challenge family.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40
2014 Markus Fachbach (GER) 08:28:25 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:16:26
2015 Markus Fachbach (GER) 08:12:24 Kathrin Walther (GER) 09:26:11

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Markus Fachbach GER 00:48:56 04:25:18 02:54:01 08:12:24
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:48:47 04:25:32 02:59:29 08:18:14
3 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:51:37 04:26:45 02:59:14 08:22:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kathrin Walther GER 00:59:12 04:56:48 03:23:23 09:26:11
2 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:04:48 05:04:35 03:11:02 09:27:27
3 Camille Deligny FRA 01:01:54 04:55:03 03:27:31 09:29:52

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:24 Markus Fachbach 2015-09-12
Swim overall 00:44:25 Bart Colpaert 2014-09-13
Bike overall 04:25:18 Markus Fachbach 2015-09-12
Run overall 02:47:54 Dirk Wijnalda 2014-09-13
Total female 09:16:26 Heleen Bij De Vaate 2014-09-13
Swim female 00:51:37 Hillary Biscay 2013-09-14
Bike female 04:55:03 Camille Deligny 2015-09-12
Run female 03:10:59 Heleen Bij De Vaate 2014-09-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 10:01.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 05:32 00:21 02:01 03:40 30 05:32 00:21 02:01 03:40
2014 07:02 02:46 04:35 01:29 30 of 38 06:17 01:34 03:18 02:35
2015 17:27 00:31 16:05 04:15 36 of 43 10:01 01:13 07:34 03:08

Prize Money

Challenge Almere has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Jan Raphael GER 08:31:57 08:38:06 00:48:26 04:37:38 03:00:53 94% +0% -6% (24) 52
2 6 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:34:37 08:53:46 00:51:21 04:37:38 03:00:38 96% +4% -0% (7) 101
3 1 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:34:49 08:59:46 00:55:10 04:41:15 02:53:23 43% +56% -1% (19) 128
4 8 Marek Jaskolka POL 08:40:25 08:45:28 00:47:58 04:49:28 02:57:59 100% +0% -0% (7) 78
5 7 Matthias Knossalla GER 08:40:56 09:03:09 01:02:56 04:32:37 03:00:22 29% +71% -0% (2) (138)
6 2 Sergio Marques POR 08:41:12 08:54:28 00:53:27 04:47:45 02:55:00 77% +5% -18% (36) 102
7 16 Diederik Scheltinga NED 08:42:55 09:18:04 00:50:54 04:42:18 03:04:43 10% +28% -62% (4) (189)
8 4 David Naesvik SWE 08:46:30 09:01:40 00:53:43 04:38:41 03:09:05 70% +0% -30% (15) 132
9 24 Malte Bruns GER 08:50:14 09:07:26 00:52:28 04:49:09 03:03:37 100% +0% -0% (2) (157)
10 25 Pascal Ramali GER 08:51:30 09:13:59 00:57:57 04:38:17 03:10:16 27% +0% -73% (3) (180)
11 11 Youri Severin NED 08:53:24 09:14:24 00:45:59 04:46:40 03:15:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (181)
12 5 Bryan Rhodes NZL 08:57:49 09:17:39 00:47:09 04:44:08 03:21:32 22% +0% -78% (27) (186)
13 10 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:59:55 09:17:51 00:53:17 04:52:14 03:09:24 41% +7% -52% (13) 188
14 19 Peter Seidel GER 09:04:09 09:32:46 00:52:20 04:36:40 03:30:10 30% +0% -70% (3) 228
15 20 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:08:37 09:27:23 00:57:23 04:54:17 03:11:58 39% +61% -0% (4) 215
16 9 Allan Hovda NOR 09:09:31 09:27:43 01:03:42 04:55:09 03:05:39 100% +0% -0% (2) (216)
17 14 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP 09:19:22 09:41:23 00:51:02 05:08:05 03:15:15 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (248)
18 18 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:23:04 09:49:33 00:56:29 04:59:37 03:21:58 63% +37% -0% (6) (262)
19 21 Tjerk Tjallema NED 09:44:15 10:10:16 00:51:00 05:25:04 03:23:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (280)
  15 Christian Otto GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  17 Jarmo Rissanen FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  22 Stefan Overmars NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  26 Patrick Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 52 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:29:48 09:39:58 00:52:41 05:07:59 03:24:09 85% +5% -10% (12) 50
2 54 Erika Csomor HUN 09:31:34 09:36:12 00:58:44 05:10:29 03:17:21 85% +0% -14% (35) 39
3 56 Camille Deligny FRA 09:40:16 10:06:07 01:01:20 05:04:25 03:29:31 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (98)
4 51 Kathrin Walther GER 09:42:40 10:20:35 00:58:22 05:08:22 03:30:56 29% +26% -45% (9) 127
5 60 Carla Van Rooijen NED 09:58:04 10:17:53 01:12:17 05:17:32 03:23:16 84% +16% -0% (7) 120
6 57 Simona Krivankova CZE 10:11:05 10:35:09 01:09:05 05:32:26 03:24:34 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (151)
  59 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:17:18 unrated 01:01:49 05:33:12 03:37:18 59% +0% -41% (10) n/a
  53 Ewa Bugdol POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  62 Julia Mai GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  63 Ilona Eversdijk NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  64 Lucie Van Genugten NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jan Raphael: 31% (2-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 30% (2-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 13% (6-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
  • Marek Jaskolka: 7% (13-1)
  • Matthias Knossalla: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirjam Weerd: 60% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 25% (3-1)
  • Kathrin Walther: 8% (12-1)
  • Camille Deligny: 3% (31-1)
  • Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (31-1)

One Response to Challenge Almere 2016 (Sep 10th) – Predictions

  1. deligny September 6, 2016 at 7:26 pm #

    1 ere Camille Deligny
    2 ème Katrin Walther
    3 ème Mirjam Weerd

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