Challenge Roth 2015 (July 12th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timo Bracht GER 00:48:58 04:19:59 02:44:32 07:56:00
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:39 04:15:16 02:54:03 08:00:39
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:02 04:19:54 02:57:35 08:09:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:55:24 04:46:48 02:53:27 08:38:53
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:52:43 04:43:11 03:03:21 08:42:25
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:08 04:48:14 03:05:05 08:48:42

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:11:43 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:43.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 9 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:37 01:17 06:34 03:26 37 15:19 01:13 10:03 04:28
2007 22:56 00:52 10:30 06:52 28 17:52 01:06 10:12 05:16
2008 20:40 01:58 06:45 08:00 38 18:34 01:19 09:20 05:57
2009 25:59 02:04 15:06 05:07 41 20:03 01:28 10:29 05:47
2010 18:59 00:27 07:25 05:17 42 19:52 01:18 09:59 05:42
2011 20:43 01:49 15:24 05:19 34 19:59 01:22 10:45 05:39
2012 14:53 02:22 05:43 04:52 50 19:21 01:30 10:08 05:33
2013 21:13 00:27 13:24 04:46 37 19:34 01:23 10:29 05:28
2014 11:04 -00:10 13:08 -01:10 33 18:43 01:13 10:45 04:48

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Timo Bracht GER 07:59:01 08:23:54 00:47:33 04:23:14 02:43:15 8
2 2 Nils Frommhold GER 07:59:48 08:17:04 00:46:17 04:18:22 02:50:08 3
3 27 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:08:08 08:25:34 00:46:15 04:28:51 02:48:02 12
4 4 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:16:13 08:36:07 00:46:50 04:16:44 03:07:39 (37)
5 6 Markus Fachbach GER 08:17:27 08:46:38 00:48:01 04:29:43 02:54:44 66
6 8 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:22:12 08:46:44 00:51:05 04:31:54 02:54:13 67
7 5 Horst Reichel GER 08:22:52 08:55:19 00:47:40 04:32:57 02:57:15 111
8 20 Per Bittner GER 08:24:21 08:49:48 00:48:10 04:32:26 02:58:45 86
9 14 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:26:37 08:47:53 00:50:43 04:40:19 02:50:34 77
10 9 Roeland Smits NED 08:28:11 08:56:46 00:51:21 04:38:06 02:53:44 115
11 80 Johann Ackermann GER 08:30:08 09:09:54 00:47:16 04:36:52 03:01:00 (173)
12 7 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:31:22 09:08:52 00:49:55 04:23:53 03:12:34 (166)
13 24 Stefan Schmid GER 08:31:35 08:46:59 00:52:07 04:36:46 02:57:42 71
14 79 Casey Munro AUS 08:33:22 08:56:56 00:45:49 04:30:56 03:11:38 (116)
15 16 Sergio Marques POR 08:33:26 08:56:09 00:53:09 04:43:23 02:51:54 114
16 10 Christian Brader GER 08:34:37 08:55:48 00:55:18 04:40:54 02:53:24 113
17 18 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:37:03 08:48:25 00:52:00 04:54:41 02:45:22 79
18 47 Gyula Kis HUN 08:37:51 09:07:13 00:50:15 04:47:05 02:55:31 (154)
19 29 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:38:26 08:57:09 00:46:39 04:41:16 03:05:31 117
20 19 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:38:27 09:00:00 00:53:59 04:40:36 02:58:53 126
21 12 Scott Defilippis USA 08:39:12 09:14:42 00:54:15 04:46:54 02:53:03 196
22 11 Michael Wetzel GER 08:41:42 09:13:38 00:55:00 04:42:37 02:59:05 188
23 44 Dave Rost NED 08:42:51 09:17:27 00:48:45 04:40:53 03:08:13 (204)
24 36 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:44:08 09:04:15 00:48:39 04:43:20 03:07:09 143
25 15 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 08:45:03 09:14:30 00:51:00 04:45:19 03:03:44 (196)
26 17 Jens Kaiser GER 08:46:23 09:17:45 00:56:06 04:37:54 03:07:23 (204)
27 69 Marcel Bischof GER 08:49:08 09:19:43 00:55:03 04:43:56 03:05:09 216
28 25 Christopher Bagg USA 08:49:28 09:28:28 00:53:13 04:42:08 03:09:06 251
29 42 Niels Brandt-Joergensen DEN 08:50:37 09:20:42 00:55:59 04:50:43 02:58:55 (223)
30 22 Blake Becker USA 08:52:12 09:31:47 00:51:32 04:47:24 03:08:16 268
31 26 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:53:48 09:15:38 00:46:14 04:34:34 03:28:01 198
32 23 Raul Furtado BRA 08:55:40 09:21:59 00:51:49 04:40:12 03:18:39 230
33 33 Thomas Naasz NED 09:05:20 09:27:03 00:54:45 04:52:32 03:13:03 248
34 40 Urs Mueller SWI 09:09:15 09:40:24 00:55:32 04:53:03 03:15:40 (305)
35 74 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:12:40 09:55:00 01:00:22 04:42:07 03:25:11 (362)
36 48 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:16:59 09:58:52 01:01:30 04:50:31 03:19:58 (372)
37 35 Michael Louys BEL 09:19:55 09:46:04 00:59:54 04:52:20 03:22:41 (322)
38 45 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:33:59 09:59:15 00:57:24 05:00:15 03:31:19 (374)
39 75 Kaon Cho KOR 12:29:03 13:11:32 01:00:07 05:02:32 06:21:25 (486)
30 Olivier Godart LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Marton Flander n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Robert Karas n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
70 Christopher Haas n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Julian Mutterer GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
73 Henry Beck n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
78 Toumy Degham FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
616 Christian Jais GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
1164 Carlos Silva n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:52:15 09:13:35 00:56:35 04:44:53 03:05:47 5
2 52 Gina Crawford NZL 09:00:47 09:23:47 00:50:36 04:59:54 03:05:18 16
3 53 Anja Beranek GER 09:03:26 09:32:43 00:51:27 04:51:40 03:15:19 (32)
4 56 Diana Riesler GER 09:03:59 09:32:41 00:56:10 04:48:33 03:14:16 31
5 59 Carrie Lester AUS 09:23:00 09:37:59 00:53:46 05:06:06 03:18:08 45
6 54 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:24:01 09:49:19 00:53:36 05:02:11 03:23:14 61
7 58 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:25:17 10:16:41 00:52:27 05:18:15 03:09:34 (125)
8 Laura Bennett USA 09:27:43 10:05:55 00:51:23 05:02:17 03:29:03 (105)
9 68 Stefanie Adam BEL 09:35:41 10:20:33 00:54:41 04:57:05 03:38:55 (136)
10 60 Ana Casares ESP 09:35:45 10:09:56 01:09:09 05:06:45 03:14:52 (112)
11 61 Verena Walter GER 09:37:21 10:07:36 00:57:47 05:08:39 03:25:55 (110)
12 64 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:14:41 10:44:57 01:01:19 05:30:05 03:38:17 168
13 65 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:20:59 10:49:42 01:05:18 05:33:24 03:37:17 (169)
63 Simona Krivankova n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Katja Kern n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This year we’ll see a re-match from last year: Timo Bracht ran down Nils Frommhold to finally win in Roth. As long as Andy Starykowicz is fit again after last year’s injury, he will make the race very interesting: He will be trying to build a big lead on the swim and bike (anyone betting on him going sub-4 for the bike?) and then hold on to his lead on the run. There are a few others that can contend for a podium spot.

  • Timo Bracht: 36% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 32% (2-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 19% (4-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 5% (19-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 3% (31-1)
  • Markus Fachbach: 2% (43-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne is the clear favorite, she has won here in 2007 and 2008. Gina Crawford another top athlete that is always good for a solid race. Anja Beranek will look for a good long distance race after deciding not to chase a Kona slot this year.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 54% (1-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 18% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 18% (5-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 8% (11-1)

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Vorschau auf das Sommerhighlight: Roth, die 2. | Michael Wetzel - July 6, 2015

    […] zusammen. Trotz der an meine Vorjahresleistung angepassten Zeitprognose ergibt sich damit laut Statistik-Vorhersage von Rechenkünstler Thorsten für mich nur Rang 22. Zwar ist mir 2014 das Kunststück gelungen, sowohl die errechnete Zeit- als […]

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