Challenge Wanaka 2016 (Feb 20th) – Predictions

WanakaLogoThis will be the tenth time that Challenge Wanaka is held. It has established itself as the traditional first Ironman distance race in the calendar year. It usually has a small Pro field, but there are always some good athletes competing on the beautiful course.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2007 Luke Dragstra (CAN) 08:54:17 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:38:26
2008 Marc Pschebizin (GER) 08:47:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:33:46
2009 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:37:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:27
2010 Richard Ussher (NZL) 08:34:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:57
2011 Jamie Whyte (NZL) 09:03:53 Belinda Granger (AUS) 10:26:17
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:41:53 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:44:06
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:51:18 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:24:31
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:38:48 Candice Hammond (NZL) 09:33:54
2015 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:37:14 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:31:51

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:33 04:47:13 03:00:29 08:37:14
2 Dougal Allan NZL 01:02:41 04:30:51 03:03:08 08:40:06
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:50:56 04:50:51 03:02:59 08:49:46

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:55 05:12:39 03:22:25 09:31:51
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:57:13 05:12:44 03:28:43 09:43:46
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:56:49 05:16:44 03:34:28 09:52:16

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:41 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Swim overall 00:45:33 Dylan McNeice 2015-02-22
Bike overall 04:30:51 Dougal Allan 2015-02-22
Run overall 02:48:04 Marc Pschebizin 2008-01-19
Total female 09:24:31 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Swim female 00:50:01 Gina Crawford 2008-01-19
Bike female 05:08:30 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Run female 03:08:59 Rebekah Keat 2010-01-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 05:30.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 03:50 00:42 -06:30 04:29 7 03:50 00:42 -06:30 04:29
2008 00:37 01:11 -09:42 01:33 16 of 17 02:13 00:56 -08:06 03:01
2009 04:38 -03:36 -01:31 03:57 12 of 13 03:02 -00:35 -05:55 03:20
2010 00:17 -01:47 -01:12 02:41 15 02:20 -00:53 -04:44 03:10
2011 -26:34 -02:44 -22:30 -03:42 15 -03:26 -01:15 -08:17 01:48
2012 -08:53 -01:11 -07:26 -03:22 19 -04:21 -01:14 -08:09 00:56
2013 -07:00 -05:40 -09:02 02:57 15 -04:44 -01:52 -08:16 01:13
2014 -04:15 -01:03 -02:54 00:27 10 of 18 -04:40 -01:46 -07:36 01:08
2015 -12:09 00:20 -04:28 -07:28 23 of 27 -05:30 -01:32 -07:15 00:10

Prize Money

Challenge Wanaka has a total prize purse of 80.000 NZD.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Dougal Allan NZL 08:37:41 08:40:11 01:03:05 04:34:17 02:55:18 52
2 1 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:42:03 08:51:47 00:46:21 04:52:35 02:58:07 89
3 3 Joe Skipper GBR 08:42:57 08:36:23 00:55:09 04:44:24 02:58:25 36
4 4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:11 08:38:23 00:51:36 04:38:40 03:08:56 44
5 5 Per Bittner GER 08:45:10 08:40:12 00:50:30 04:48:28 03:01:12 53
6 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:50:02 08:48:20 00:58:32 04:49:11 02:57:19 76
7 10 Chris Sanson NZL 09:03:33 09:14:16 00:58:26 04:58:31 03:01:35 186
8 13 Sean Donnelly GER 09:21:40 09:45:26 00:49:03 04:58:23 03:29:13 (310)
9 7 Brad Williams USA 09:29:52 09:54:40 00:58:17 05:06:07 03:20:28 (341)
10 11 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:41:09 09:59:51 01:03:41 05:01:45 03:30:44 362
11 12 Graham O’Grady NZL 09:42:52 09:43:22 00:47:23 05:00:19 03:50:10 (305)
12 8 Matt Randall NZL 09:59:10 10:01:54 01:00:34 05:04:35 03:49:01 (366)
9 Allister Caird AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 50 Gina Crawford NZL 09:27:10 09:29:29 00:53:04 05:17:38 03:11:28 23
2 53 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:27:54 09:17:31 01:00:09 05:09:57 03:12:48 9
3 51 Laura Siddall GBR 09:47:32 10:01:37 00:59:22 05:18:30 03:24:40 90
4 52 Simone Maier GER 09:54:30 09:57:44 01:06:20 05:25:24 03:17:46 82
5 55 Anna Cleaver NZL 10:02:34 10:13:47 00:54:08 05:31:23 03:32:03 (117)
6 59 Julia Grant NZL 10:08:26 10:21:29 00:59:21 05:35:07 03:28:58 (136)
7 58 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:10:22 10:17:39 00:59:51 05:25:04 03:40:27 (126)
8 57 April Gellatly USA 10:12:20 10:21:48 00:57:44 05:35:46 03:33:50 (136)
9 54 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:24:38 10:23:36 01:03:21 05:43:15 03:33:02 143
60 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The male race promises to be very exciting – there are six athletes that are relatively close together, each with different strengths. Three-time winner and defending champion Dylan McNeice will almost certainly lead after the swim, but then a group of strong riders (notably Dougal Allen, Maik Twelsiek and Joe Skipper) will try to make things interesting and put pressure on Dylan. The outcome of the race will probably depend on who ends up with the best run. Last year, that was where Dylan ended up winning the race.

  • Dougal Allan: 28% (3-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 18% (5-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 15% (6-1)
  • Per Bittner: 13% (7-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 13% (7-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 13% (7-1)

Female Race Participants

There are two clear favorites on the female side: Gina Crawford has won the race six times and holds the course record. She’ll be challenged by Yvonne Van Vlerken who could be the first female winner that’s not from Australia or New Zealand.

  • Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 41% (1-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 4% (22-1)
  • Simone Maier: 3% (37-1)
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