Ironman Arizona 2015 (Nov 15th) – Predictions

IMAZLogoUpdate November 11th: The following athletes have been deleted the latest start list from Ironman:

  • Peter Kotland
  • Heather Jackson, Dede Griesgrauer, Danielle Mack

Pedro Gomes has announced on Twitter and his blog that he won’t start.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:25 04:21:24 02:43:29 07:55:48
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:05 04:20:44 02:47:30 08:00:42
3 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:13 04:14:03 02:54:08 08:03:14

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:22 04:48:06 03:07:56 08:50:41
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:59:05 04:50:17 03:05:48 08:58:46
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:57 04:47:07 03:18:51 09:08:57

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:48 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:14:03 Jordan Rapp 2014-11-16
Run overall 02:43:29 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:57 Michelle Vesterby 2013-11-17
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 11:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24 29 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24
2007 02:55 -00:35 01:13 01:35 26 04:24 -00:36 02:53 00:36
2008 04:58 00:04 04:21 -00:50 38 04:35 -00:22 03:22 00:07
2008 10:53 01:10 09:07 01:59 51 06:10 00:01 04:49 00:35
2009 17:44 -01:00 12:12 02:35 37 08:28 -00:12 06:17 00:59
2010 13:23 -00:23 09:06 01:47 46 09:18 -00:13 06:45 01:07
2011 15:03 -00:56 15:27 02:14 55 10:07 -00:20 08:00 01:17
2012 14:16 -01:58 16:28 02:33 50 10:38 -00:32 09:04 01:26
2013 22:15 -00:21 19:57 03:47 58 11:56 -00:31 10:16 01:42
2014 08:52 -01:09 08:37 02:33 40 11:37 -00:35 10:06 01:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:10 08:13:51 00:47:17 04:20:50 02:48:03 2
2 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:10:21 08:27:40 00:51:34 04:18:20 02:55:27 15
3 3 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:19:33 08:38:30 00:50:41 04:18:44 03:05:07 42
4 31 Marc Duelsen GER 08:20:44 08:45:39 00:53:13 04:25:56 02:56:35 71
5 4 TJ Tollakson USA 08:21:18 08:37:50 00:49:15 04:24:57 03:02:07 39
6 9 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:25:10 08:39:54 00:48:13 04:17:42 03:14:15 47
7 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:26:28 08:41:25 00:51:02 04:34:28 02:55:58 56
8 11 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:26:36 08:35:29 00:56:42 04:28:08 02:56:46 32
9 7 Marko Albert EST 08:27:48 08:35:42 00:47:32 04:34:52 03:00:24 33
10 54 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:27:53 09:00:42 00:53:01 04:28:33 03:01:20 134
11 8 David Plese SLO 08:30:29 08:39:16 00:53:10 04:35:31 02:56:48 46
12 5 Matthew Russell USA 08:33:28 08:50:06 00:58:29 04:32:40 02:57:19 86
13 35 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 08:35:39 08:57:30 00:49:04 04:47:12 02:54:23 (118)
14 36 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:36:44 08:55:43 00:53:57 04:30:58 03:06:50 114
15 14 Sergio Marques POR 08:37:51 08:54:42 00:55:05 04:44:37 02:53:09 112
16 22 Christian Brader GER 08:39:48 08:54:12 00:57:05 04:40:41 02:57:02 107
17 6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:49 08:53:17 00:57:32 04:30:53 03:06:25 101
18 60 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:41:50 09:01:28 00:57:46 04:42:11 02:56:53 137
19 41 Matic Modic SLO 08:42:02 09:04:49 00:55:00 04:39:54 03:02:08 155
20 56 Joe Umphenour USA 08:42:29 08:58:11 00:47:43 04:39:23 03:10:24 120
21 15 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:44:14 09:01:06 01:00:15 04:37:12 03:01:47 135
22 43 David Naesvik SWE 08:47:27 09:03:12 00:55:56 04:36:07 03:10:24 146
23 39 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:48:41 09:11:57 00:54:01 04:40:57 03:08:43 (186)
24 16 Christopher Bagg USA 08:49:12 09:20:27 00:54:06 04:40:47 03:09:18 222
25 18 Marcel Bischof GER 08:55:06 09:17:08 00:57:05 04:45:08 03:07:53 208
26 26 James Chesson USA 08:58:19 09:17:25 00:58:09 04:47:57 03:07:13 210
27 17 Blake Becker USA 08:58:37 09:40:02 00:53:09 04:45:56 03:14:32 300
28 21 Raymond Botelho USA 09:00:09 09:29:29 00:54:11 04:35:58 03:24:59 253
29 58 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:00:41 09:30:04 00:54:39 04:53:42 03:07:21 256
30 33 Lewis Elliot USA 09:03:49 09:37:27 00:54:13 04:40:44 03:23:52 (289)
31 49 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:03:50 09:21:06 00:53:43 04:54:57 03:10:10 225
32 45 Colin Laughery USA 09:05:16 09:28:27 00:59:04 04:50:35 03:10:37 (249)
33 51 Bryan McCrystal IRL 09:06:56 09:23:20 01:04:13 04:34:30 03:23:14 (234)
34 46 James Lubinski USA 09:07:13 09:31:08 01:02:37 04:50:22 03:09:15 262
35 48 Douglas MacLean USA 09:07:48 09:25:21 00:58:18 04:55:34 03:08:56 240
36 55 Michael Starkey USA 09:08:55 09:27:10 00:59:52 04:51:26 03:12:38 244
37 19 Patrick Bless GER 09:15:59 09:29:44 00:58:00 04:59:19 03:13:40 254
38 24 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:16:26 09:50:12 00:49:55 05:01:46 03:19:46 334
39 27 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:21:09 09:41:55 00:52:46 04:57:37 03:25:46 (305)
40 37 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:28:55 09:53:07 00:56:26 04:41:07 03:46:21 (347)
41 61 Dantley Young USA 09:33:54 10:04:30 01:06:25 05:04:25 03:18:04 379
42 42 Peter Kotland CZE 09:37:19 09:57:03 00:59:27 04:58:01 03:34:51 357
43 38 Elmar Heger GER 09:41:16 10:14:31 00:57:42 04:55:01 03:43:33 409
44 53 Mario Radevic GER 09:53:35 10:27:54 01:03:08 05:02:24 03:43:03 (452)
45 52 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:54:42 10:32:28 00:59:51 04:55:42 03:54:10 (457)
46 47 Arland Macasieb PHI 09:58:23 10:33:30 01:05:08 05:11:39 03:36:36 (461)
47 20 Karl Bordine USA 10:07:41 10:33:32 00:59:22 04:39:51 04:23:28 (461)
48 28 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 10:09:56 10:34:26 01:02:38 05:14:24 03:47:55 (461)
49 34 Andrew Fast USA 10:10:42 10:31:43 00:58:41 05:05:45 04:01:16 (456)
50 23 Patrice Brisindi CAN 10:12:15 10:38:17 00:57:34 05:16:06 03:53:36 (464)
51 50 Brent Mcburney USA 10:27:32 10:54:13 01:00:32 05:03:52 04:18:08 (474)
52 59 Jason Watson USA 10:43:28 11:15:41 00:59:27 05:21:58 04:17:03 479
53 85 Terry Casey USA 10:44:20 11:11:44 00:59:03 05:23:42 04:16:36 (478)
54 10 Drew Scott USA 11:04:19 11:32:34 00:49:49 04:34:33 05:34:57 (481)
12 Kevin Collington USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Nathan Dressel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Derek Lantz CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 70 Meredith Kessler USA 08:58:15 09:25:43 00:49:56 04:51:30 03:11:50 19
2 71 Julia Gajer GER 09:03:33 09:20:48 00:53:41 04:59:47 03:05:05 14
3 72 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:04:49 09:21:08 00:52:03 04:53:59 03:13:47 15
4 73 Heather Jackson USA 09:07:38 09:23:29 00:58:51 04:52:27 03:11:20 16
5 75 Amanda Stevens USA 09:15:13 09:39:10 00:50:56 05:00:18 03:18:58 44
6 77 Lisa Roberts USA 09:16:09 09:31:47 01:04:22 05:03:20 03:03:27 27
7 100 Danielle Mack USA 09:19:01 09:45:08 01:02:51 04:59:53 03:11:17 53
8 99 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:24:27 09:49:46 01:07:44 04:59:09 03:12:34 66
9 74 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:24:31 09:48:32 00:58:53 04:59:36 03:21:02 (62)
10 101 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:25:48 09:56:47 00:59:16 05:03:22 03:18:10 82
11 87 Amber Ferreira USA 09:30:38 09:49:34 00:56:13 05:08:08 03:21:17 64
12 76 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:33:19 09:50:28 00:53:26 05:04:16 03:30:37 70
13 108 Laurel Wassner USA 09:36:00 09:50:24 00:54:41 05:19:20 03:16:59 69
14 105 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:19 10:06:51 00:53:30 05:04:33 03:33:17 (107)
15 93 Christina Jackson USA 09:41:28 10:03:20 00:52:26 05:05:50 03:38:11 95
16 86 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:43:26 10:13:31 00:53:01 05:13:55 03:31:30 (119)
17 95 Jessica Meyers USA 09:46:50 10:04:22 01:00:14 05:15:17 03:26:19 98
18 88 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:54:27 10:12:22 00:58:56 05:15:49 03:34:42 116
19 90 Sarah Graves USA 09:57:30 10:15:05 01:13:00 05:17:34 03:21:57 124
20 104 Tami Ritchie USA 10:01:36 10:31:44 00:53:28 05:33:35 03:29:32 166
21 94 Sarah Jarvis USA 10:06:48 10:30:22 01:00:30 05:14:48 03:46:30 (165)
22 82 Neilia Bliss USA 10:15:38 10:41:50 01:02:44 05:28:54 03:39:00 (172)
23 102 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:18:27 11:01:25 01:05:38 05:17:47 03:50:01 (178)
24 79 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:24:35 10:40:26 01:03:34 05:09:05 04:06:56 (170)
25 97 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:31:40 10:57:18 01:08:39 05:30:55 03:47:06 (177)
26 89 Richele Frank CAN 10:32:53 10:59:48 01:12:18 05:21:07 03:54:29 (177)
27 81 Ali Black USA 10:36:19 10:57:27 01:03:43 05:25:49 04:01:47 (177)
28 78 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:38:20 11:02:34 01:13:54 05:32:32 03:46:53 (178)
29 84 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:46:20 11:13:49 01:00:38 06:01:46 03:38:56 (180)
30 96 Kathryn King GBR 10:47:49 11:15:22 01:10:52 05:47:19 03:44:38 (180)
31 83 Cori Burnett USA 11:03:54 11:32:08 00:57:40 05:54:28 04:06:46 (180)
80 Hayley Benson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Sarah Haskins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
98 Kara Lapoint USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
103 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
106 Frankie Sanjana GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
107 Lauren Thompson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
109 Kelsey Withrow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending Champion Brent McMahon is the favorite for this year as well. His strongest competition comes from last year’s third place Jordan Rapp. Brent and Jordan have both raced Kona five weeks before Arizona. There are a number of strong swim/bike athletes (Maik Twelsiek who had the fastest bike split in Kona, TJ Tollakson or Andrew Starykowicz who has the fastest Ironman and 70.3 bike times) and it will be interesting to see who will still be able to have a decent run after what I expect to be a very fast and hard bike leg.

  • Brent McMahon: 37% (2-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 27% (3-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 12% (7-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 6% (16-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 6% (17-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (26-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 2% (56-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (59-1)

Drew Scott is seeded last in my predictions, but that is a result of his 5:28 marathon from IM France. His swim and bike should be good enough to see him close to the front for a good part of the race – hopefully he’ll be able to have a better run this time!

Female Race Participants

The female race has a very interesting mix of athletes who had a good race in Kona and want to do one more decent race with the fitness they have built up (e.g. 4th Michelle Vesterby or 5th Heather Jackson), athletes that didn’t have a good race in Hawaii (e.g. defending Arizona Champion Meredith Kessler who walked most of the Kona marathon and Julia Gajer or Amanda Stevens who DNF’d), and athletes that want to get started on 2016 qualifying (such as Lisa Roberts, Danielle Mack, Camilla Lindholm or Melanie McQuaid). There is an outside chance for Heather Jackson, but I expect the race to be decided between the 2013 podium when Julia won in front of Meredith and Michelle.

  • Meredith Kessler: 37% (2-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 29% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 21% (4-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 8% (11-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 2% (61-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Sarah Haskins who is coming into her first Ironman race with three 70.3 wins.

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