Ironman Arizona 2016 (Nov 20th) – Predictions

IMAZLogoUpdate Nov 5th: Sebastian Kienle announced on Twitter that he won’t be racing Arizona: 

SebiTweet

Eneko Llanos announced on his Facebook page that he also won’t start in Arizona.

Update Nov 6th: According to the latest startlist Ben Hoffman has also withdrawn.

Update Nov 15th: Michelle Vesterby is still on the official startlist, but she has posted she’ll be racing in Cozumel a week after Arizona. 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41
2015 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 07:58:22 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:44:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:54:04 04:13:38 02:47:07 07:58:22
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:08 04:23:32 02:46:25 08:00:57
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:14 04:16:23 02:54:45 08:04:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:48:25 04:42:13 03:08:58 08:44:00
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:07 04:50:10 03:06:39 08:52:31
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:05 04:52:06 03:15:06 09:03:15

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:48 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:03:35 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-11-15
Run overall 02:43:29 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:13 Meredith Kessler 2015-11-15
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 13:13.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:01 -00:32 05:24 -01:03 44 08:01 -00:32 05:24 -01:03
2007 02:39 -00:31 01:11 01:17 30 05:20 -00:31 03:17 00:07
2008 07:05 00:08 04:47 -01:18 40 05:55 -00:18 03:47 -00:21
2008 10:42 01:13 09:24 01:47 66 07:07 00:05 05:11 00:11
2009 18:00 -00:56 13:35 02:16 45 09:18 -00:07 06:52 00:36
2010 14:02 -00:22 10:51 02:06 54 10:05 -00:10 07:32 00:51
2011 15:31 -00:54 16:07 02:30 67 10:51 -00:16 08:46 01:05
2012 14:37 -01:56 16:28 02:28 60 11:20 -00:29 09:43 01:15
2013 21:57 -00:19 21:55 03:57 75 of 86 12:30 -00:28 11:05 01:33
2014 10:00 -01:07 10:40 02:34 49 of 67 12:15 -00:32 11:02 01:39
2015 22:54 00:15 20:30 03:29 56 of 75 13:13 -00:27 11:54 01:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 4 Sebastian Kienle GER 07:59:03 08:10:48 00:50:48 04:13:06 02:50:09 91% +7% -2% (13) 2
2 2 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:45 08:18:35 00:47:11 04:21:37 02:47:58 75% +0% -25% (6) 3
3 7 Ben Hoffman USA 08:08:36 08:29:38 00:48:52 04:22:10 02:52:34 35% +49% -16% (18) 25
4 6 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:13:50 08:24:29 00:48:14 04:19:55 03:00:41 90% +0% -10% (28) 13
5 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:15:00 08:33:02 00:55:16 04:20:59 02:53:46 81% +19% -0% (5) 34
6 3 TJ Tollakson USA 08:15:22 08:36:19 00:49:27 04:22:45 02:58:10 73% +7% -20% (22) (43)
7 8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:22:40 08:45:28 00:48:57 04:29:54 02:58:49 26% +4% -70% (9) (82)
8 9 Pedro Gomes POR 08:23:19 08:44:53 00:51:25 04:32:10 02:54:44 60% +4% -36% (24) 78
9 5 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:23:34 08:48:31 00:47:09 04:28:39 03:02:46 4% +37% -60% (27) 90
10 11 Matt Chrabot USA 08:23:35 08:40:56 00:48:38 04:30:11 02:59:46 13% +54% -33% (4) (63)
11 14 David Plese SLO 08:26:26 08:39:43 00:52:58 04:31:43 02:56:45 82% +3% -15% (19) 56
12 12 Per Bittner GER 08:29:44 08:47:16 00:50:03 04:32:51 03:01:49 51% +13% -36% (19) 88
13 17 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:35:20 09:01:16 00:53:51 04:29:37 03:06:52 39% +11% -51% (21) (134)
14 16 Matic Modic SLO 08:38:17 09:03:26 00:55:44 04:38:23 02:59:10 40% +35% -24% (9) 142
15 13 Philip Graves GBR 08:40:50 08:50:18 00:49:52 04:32:43 03:13:14 100% +0% -0% (6) 95
16 15 Swen Sundberg GER 08:41:58 08:59:02 00:53:14 04:36:21 03:07:23 54% +1% -45% (19) (126)
17 35 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:52:14 09:11:39 00:54:08 04:40:29 03:12:37 60% +6% -34% (12) 166
18 10 Leon Griffin AUS 08:52:45 09:22:10 00:51:14 04:32:37 03:23:55 19% +0% -81% (7) (198)
19 28 Jens Frommhold GER 08:55:23 09:44:33 00:58:02 04:42:26 03:09:55 31% +0% -69% (3) (252)
20 51 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:57:03 09:25:47 00:55:12 04:47:16 03:09:35 74% +18% -8% (17) 209
21 23 Jordan Bryden CAN 08:57:57 09:34:15 00:49:46 04:47:44 03:15:27 38% +52% -10% (8) 226
22 21 Raymond Botelho USA 08:58:28 09:41:16 00:54:06 04:34:40 03:24:42 25% +28% -47% (15) (243)
23 46 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:00:59 09:37:12 00:53:32 04:52:48 03:09:39 45% +26% -29% (14) (232)
24 25 Lewis Elliot USA 09:02:13 09:43:34 00:54:03 04:39:37 03:23:32 19% +5% -77% (17) (251)
25 41 James Lubinski USA 09:02:48 09:28:26 01:03:19 04:47:22 03:07:07 46% +31% -23% (18) 216
26 29 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:03:39 09:23:55 00:55:07 04:46:57 03:16:35 70% +30% -0% (3) 201
27 42 Douglas MacLean USA 09:03:53 09:24:38 00:57:59 04:52:47 03:08:08 86% +4% -10% (14) 207
28 39 Colin Laughery USA 09:06:08 09:23:55 00:59:24 04:48:26 03:13:17 100% +0% -0% (4) 201
29 18 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:07:54 09:32:57 00:56:37 04:54:37 03:11:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (223)
30 49 Anthony Toth CAN 09:11:58 09:35:27 00:57:57 04:51:05 03:17:56 14% +8% -78% (18) (229)
31 20 Patrick Bless GER 09:13:20 09:30:44 00:57:23 05:02:12 03:08:45 100% +0% -0% (7) (221)
32 50 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:16:04 09:38:50 00:57:51 04:52:22 03:20:51 29% +0% -71% (6) (236)
33 53 Cameron Wurf AUS 09:16:14 09:41:39 00:51:17 04:15:17 04:04:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (245)
34 55 Nathan Champness CAN 09:16:47 09:41:50 00:57:20 04:43:51 03:30:36 38% +0% -62% (3) 246
35 31 Nicholas Granet FRA 09:17:49 09:43:18 00:51:03 04:59:58 03:21:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (250)
36 24 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:21:48 09:37:36 00:53:17 04:48:42 03:34:49 43% +17% -40% (5) 233
37 54 Dantley Young USA 09:33:22 10:18:03 01:06:16 05:04:17 03:17:49 0% +12% -88% (9) (282)
38 33 Elmar Heger GER 09:35:21 10:03:02 00:55:41 04:52:23 03:42:17 44% +23% -33% (6) (272)
39 47 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:44 09:51:24 00:59:05 05:04:07 03:28:33 100% +0% -0% (3) 261
40 52 Robbie Wade IRL 09:47:07 10:23:11 00:58:44 04:58:11 03:45:12 39% +0% -61% (2) (286)
41 19 Max Biessmann USA 10:03:20 10:30:54 00:52:41 04:50:10 04:15:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (289)
42 27 Andrew Fast USA 10:06:21 10:38:34 00:58:32 05:02:52 03:59:57 19% +28% -52% (4) (289)
43 38 Tyler Jordan USA 11:49:03 12:21:27 00:58:24 05:13:36 05:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
22 Patrick Brady USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Jose Estrangeiro POR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
32 Benson Hall USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Tripp Hipple USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Yu Hsiao USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Vinicio Ibarra MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Sam Long USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Giulio Molinari ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Timothy Nichols USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Adam O’Connor USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Josh Terwoord USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 61 Meredith Kessler USA 08:55:56 09:24:26 00:49:30 04:50:02 03:11:24 53% +12% -35% (25) 16
2 64 Angela Naeth CAN 09:04:15 09:32:29 00:58:49 04:48:27 03:11:59 25% +44% -31% (5) (29)
3 67 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:39 09:22:00 00:58:33 04:50:35 03:12:30 74% +0% -26% (27) 14
4 65 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:06:59 09:21:53 00:52:24 04:55:01 03:14:34 79% +3% -18% (19) 12
5 63 Leanda Cave GBR 09:08:36 09:30:14 00:51:23 04:57:32 03:14:41 45% +7% -48% (21) 25
6 62 Amanda Stevens USA 09:10:03 09:34:44 00:51:21 04:58:58 03:14:44 44% +15% -41% (19) 33
7 66 Kelly Williamson USA 09:14:49 09:30:50 00:53:29 05:15:54 03:00:26 77% +12% -11% (12) (27)
8 73 Haley Chura USA 09:18:24 09:43:32 00:49:14 05:04:33 03:19:38 64% +14% -22% (9) (48)
9 81 Danielle Mack USA 09:21:00 09:44:25 01:02:36 05:03:22 03:10:02 59% +10% -31% (7) 50
10 87 Darbi Roberts USA 09:22:35 09:53:49 00:53:09 05:07:30 03:16:56 54% +0% -46% (6) 67
11 82 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:23:20 09:49:32 00:58:07 05:02:22 03:17:51 69% +0% -31% (11) (57)
12 68 Uli Bromme USA 09:24:55 09:51:41 01:03:01 04:59:02 03:17:53 35% +38% -27% (14) (63)
13 72 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:25:26 09:43:32 01:06:30 05:06:30 03:07:27 59% +0% -41% (3) (48)
14 69 Jen Annett CAN 09:39:53 10:07:40 01:04:10 05:08:30 03:22:13 34% +34% -32% (4) (92)
15 79 Kristin Lie NOR 09:54:25 10:17:07 01:13:50 05:06:14 03:29:21 88% +0% -12% (14) 107
16 89 Jessica Smith USA 09:56:06 10:23:31 00:54:42 05:16:08 03:40:17 62% +0% -38% (7) 117
17 83 Caroline Martineau CAN 09:57:41 10:49:26 01:02:52 05:21:04 03:28:46 33% +28% -39% (6) 143
18 88 Maggie Rusch USA 10:00:41 10:31:04 01:02:16 05:17:13 03:36:12 31% +20% -49% (5) (132)
19 86 Ashley Paulson USA 10:03:36 10:24:57 01:14:59 05:24:39 03:18:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (120)
20 77 Amy Javens USA 10:07:45 10:23:31 01:07:47 05:14:14 03:40:44 100% +0% -0% (5) 117
21 78 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:08:18 10:28:59 01:07:42 05:13:46 03:41:51 50% +0% -50% (6) 127
22 76 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:11:59 10:35:18 01:02:11 05:24:32 03:40:15 61% +0% -39% (6) (137)
23 80 Nicole Luse USA 10:38:09 11:07:20 01:10:43 05:44:43 03:37:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)
70 Liz Baugher USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
71 Sarah Bay USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
74 Emily Cocks USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Malindi Elmore CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
84 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
85 Skye Moench USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

At this point of the year, a lot of races have very deep fields with a mixture of Kona contenders that mainly want to validate their slots, athletes that didn’t have a good Kona race and look for redemption and athletes that want to have a jump start at qualifying for Kona 2017.

Male Race Participants

It’s interesting to see Sebi on the start list – validating his slot with an Arizona finish will give him some interesting options for his 2017 season, either a completely different season plan or for his summer racing. (Update: Sebi has withdrawn.) Ben will also mainly look for a validation result after his fourth place in Kona. (Update: Ben has also withdrawn. My top pick is Brent who will be looking for his next sub-8 result. He (30th in Kona) and Lionel (29th) and Eneko (27th) didn’t score too many points in Kona and want to leverage their fitness. TJ and Matt haven’t raced Kona this year and look for a good base for their 2017 season.

  • Sebastian Kienle: 56% (1-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 13% (6-1) 39% (2-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 21% (4-1) 43% (1-1)
  • Lionel Sanders: 4% (26-1) 23% (3-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 2% (40-1) 8% (11-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 16% (5-1)
  • Matt Chrabot: 8% (12-1)

But there are a lot of other athletes (such as David Please, Pedro Gomes, Joe Gambles or Pete Jacobs) in the race who could be strong podium contenders.

Female Race Participants

After last year’s 8:44 Meredith is the clear favorite even after her Kona race didn’t go too well. Angela and Haley return to IM racing after a long injury break. Michelle, Yvonne and Leanda are racing again after Kona (mixed results – Michelle was 6th, Leanda 29th and Yvonne DNF). Amanda and Kelly didn’t qualify for Kona 2016.

  • Meredith Kessler: 45% (1-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
  • Haley Chura: 8% (11-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 7% (13-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 5% (18-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 4% (23-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 4% (25-1)
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