Ironman Australia 2015 (May 3rd) – Predictions

Previous WinnersIMAUS

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:49:26 04:49:09 02:53:28 08:35:18
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:29 04:46:28 03:01:37 08:37:47
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:10 04:50:54 02:56:22 08:41:19

Last year’s winner Elliot Hotham is not back to defend his title. He said that he „got so burnt out chasing points and racing Kona“ – even after winning in Australia he had to race until the end of August to collect the required points for a slot. He took a lot off time off after Kona but is now already trying to figure out how to return to Kona in 2016.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:50:46 05:19:57 03:13:57 09:28:43
2 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:49:49 05:12:19 03:23:53 09:30:50
3 Melanie Burke NZL 00:58:08 05:21:39 03:09:19 09:32:53

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:24 Luke Bell 2014-05-04
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 05:01.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:43 02:10 -07:45 00:29 16 01:43 02:10 -07:45 00:29
2007 04:09 01:53 -05:32 01:03 24 02:56 02:01 -06:38 00:46
2008 -00:09 -00:01 -03:18 00:46 20 01:54 01:21 -05:31 00:46
2009 02:03 -00:18 -04:25 02:34 24 01:57 00:56 -05:15 01:13
2010 07:37 04:52 03:16 00:04 14 03:05 01:43 -03:33 00:59
2011 01:59 02:13 -02:32 01:44 13 02:54 01:48 -03:23 01:07
2012 05:09 02:20 01:15 04:04 9 03:13 01:53 -02:43 01:32
2013 11:54 01:34 -03:27 07:58 8 04:18 01:50 -02:48 02:20
2014 10:40 03:32 -02:43 08:29 13 05:01 02:02 -02:48 03:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:24:07 08:53:49 00:45:14 04:39:42 02:54:10 102
2 4 Peter Robertson AUS 08:33:11 08:48:32 00:45:11 04:43:47 02:59:13 (81)
3 2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:36:11 08:46:15 00:46:54 04:41:04 03:03:12 64
4 3 Luke Bell AUS 08:36:40 08:53:31 00:45:45 04:41:43 03:04:12 100
5 7 Matt Burton AUS 08:46:19 09:01:52 00:51:12 04:43:04 03:07:03 137
6 5 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:48:29 08:56:20 00:51:28 04:50:59 03:01:02 118
7 9 Carl Read NZL 08:51:53 09:00:23 00:50:08 04:58:59 02:57:47 133
8 12 Simon Billeau FRA 08:53:08 08:55:43 00:52:20 04:45:14 03:10:34 116
9 16 Luke Martin AUS 08:53:34 09:03:56 00:49:45 04:57:28 03:01:21 (149)
10 6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:54:46 08:59:27 00:53:24 04:55:05 03:01:16 129
11 13 Brian Fuller AUS 08:58:56 09:12:37 00:50:32 04:51:14 03:12:10 186
12 14 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:36 09:18:23 01:01:59 05:02:02 03:01:36 209
13 8 Graham O’Grady NZL 09:27:47 09:44:38 00:43:49 04:51:04 03:47:55 (319)
14 15 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:41:06 09:58:20 00:48:22 05:04:31 03:43:13 (369)
15 18 Matt Randall NZL 09:49:39 10:13:12 01:01:15 05:03:03 03:40:22 (411)
16 17 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:57:32 10:15:15 00:59:59 05:01:14 03:51:19 (417)
17 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:45:15 11:04:23 01:01:54 05:38:51 03:59:31 (476)
18 10 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:52:39 12:12:15 01:10:21 06:12:10 04:25:09 484

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:36:01 09:56:22 00:51:09 05:11:42 03:28:09 81
2 22 Melanie Burke NZL 09:41:52 09:49:29 01:02:22 05:17:43 03:16:47 62
3 24 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:41:55 09:53:53 00:51:25 05:33:12 03:12:18 75
4 23 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:42:05 09:48:56 00:56:04 05:17:56 03:23:04 59
5 25 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:50:22 10:07:57 00:58:41 05:20:15 03:26:27 (104)
6 28 Christie Sym AUS 09:55:26 10:08:54 00:56:30 05:23:04 03:30:52 (108)
7 27 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:01:23 10:08:09 00:58:47 05:30:52 03:26:43 105
8 26 Michelle Wu AUS 10:02:43 10:20:35 00:57:15 05:48:45 03:11:43 (137)
9 29 Caroline Gregory USA 10:08:31 10:29:36 00:53:25 05:45:55 03:24:12 154
10 31 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:10:02 10:28:07 01:01:59 05:16:13 03:46:50 (152)
30 Marie Sorrell NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes in this field. Pete Jacobs is the biggest name on paper, but he hasn’t had a good race since he won in Kona 2012. Hopefully, he was able to have a decent preparation for this race – then he would have to be considered the favorite. Peter Robertson and Luke Bell have both started in Melbourne but didn’t have the results they were looking for (Peter DNF’d probably hoping for a better day in Port Macquarie, Luke had 4h marathon and finished 15th). Paul Ambrose (winner in 2012 and second finisher last year) is hard to predict. Nick Baldwin has just finished 6th at IM Taiwan and is probably still be a bit tired.

  • Peter Robertson: 34% (2-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 19% (4-1)
  • Luke Bell: 17% (5-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 13% (7-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 6% (17-1)
  • Matt Burton: 4% (22-1)
  • Carl Read: 4% (27-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

Lisa Marangon is always close to the front – last year she finished second to Mel Hauschildt and has to be considered the front runner for this year. But she faces strong competition in Melanie Burke (recently third at IM New Zealand), Michelle Gailey (coming back after injuries and a 2014 scare with skin cancer) and Michelle Bremer (athlete with the best rating).

  • Lisa Marangon: 53% (1-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 16% (5-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 12% (7-1)
  • Jessica Fleming: 3% (32-1)
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