Ironman Australia 2016 (May 1st) – Predictions

IMAUSLogo Update (Apr 27th): Brad Kahlefeldt announced on Instagram that he suffered a labral tear during his last long training run after avoiding a dog attack. He hopes to be back to running after a short break and then race IM Cairns.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43
2015 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:35:53 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:38:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:24 Luke Bell 2014-05-04
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:32.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:23 02:10 -07:18 00:32 30 01:23 02:10 -07:18 00:32
2007 03:43 01:45 -05:11 00:32 36 02:33 01:58 -06:15 00:32
2008 01:05 00:00 -02:59 00:48 24 02:03 01:18 -05:09 00:37
2009 02:39 -00:16 -04:18 02:26 28 02:12 00:55 -04:57 01:04
2010 08:03 04:55 02:30 00:04 18 03:22 01:43 -03:27 00:52
2011 02:12 02:16 -02:28 01:46 14 03:11 01:48 -03:17 01:01
2012 05:11 02:22 01:24 03:52 9 03:28 01:53 -02:37 01:26
2013 12:01 01:37 -03:18 07:56 9 04:32 01:51 -02:42 02:14
2014 11:02 03:35 -02:25 08:23 15 of 17 05:15 02:03 -02:40 02:55
2015 -01:55 02:36 -00:10 -00:37 18 of 24 04:32 02:06 -02:25 02:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:22:52 08:42:29 00:44:05 04:46:31 02:47:16 43% +0% -57% (2) (59)
2 4 David Dellow AUS 08:24:37 08:26:12 00:46:02 04:41:35 02:52:00 58% +3% -39% (12) 14
3 7 Dougal Allan NZL 08:28:47 08:36:07 00:56:30 04:30:56 02:56:20 70% +13% -17% (6) 39
4 1 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:34:11 08:54:58 00:47:17 04:40:06 03:01:48 47% +4% -48% (19) 103
5 2 Luke Bell AUS 08:34:31 08:59:15 00:45:08 04:44:53 02:59:29 23% +5% -72% (26) 119
6 14 Mitch Dean AUS 08:45:02 09:00:07 00:46:37 04:50:15 03:03:09 100% +0% -0% (1) (124)
7 6 Tim Reed AUS 08:47:15 08:59:59 00:45:44 04:44:43 03:11:48 23% +28% -50% (3) (122)
8 8 Casey Munro AUS 08:47:29 09:02:28 00:45:05 04:43:37 03:13:47 47% +0% -53% (4) (133)
9 5 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:48:54 08:46:08 00:45:12 04:46:42 03:11:59 20% +0% -80% (6) 72
10 17 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:49:42 08:53:41 00:48:41 04:55:29 03:00:32 48% +6% -46% (13) 97
11 15 Michael Fox AUS 08:51:33 09:06:50 00:46:53 04:57:32 03:02:08 100% +0% -0% (1) (155)
12 13 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:53:25 09:05:31 00:49:07 04:54:56 03:04:22 78% +16% -5% (15) 153
13 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:55:05 08:55:59 00:52:15 04:46:05 03:11:45 52% +0% -48% (16) 109
14 16 Adam Gordon AUS 09:03:16 09:19:33 00:52:35 05:06:16 02:59:26 13% +61% -26% (3) 199
15 18 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:11:58 09:19:21 01:02:04 05:05:08 02:59:46 80% +0% -20% (7) 198
16 19 James Lubinski USA 09:16:06 09:37:00 00:59:50 05:03:26 03:07:49 34% +29% -37% (15) 242
17 12 Allister Caird AUS 09:17:18 09:33:19 00:54:17 05:04:36 03:13:25 53% +0% -47% (2) (233)
18 22 Matt Randall NZL 09:50:49 10:00:14 00:56:16 05:02:31 03:47:02 55% +0% -45% (5) 275
9 Josh Amberger AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Levi Maxwell AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Samuel Murphy AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Caleb Noble AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Leigh Stabryla AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Lindsey Wall AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

This is the first time I’m including a “Consistency” in my pre-race post. It shows the fraction of races where an athlete has been about as expected (the first number), significantly faster (the number with the “+”) or significantly slower (including DNFs, the number with the “-“) and also the total number of IM starts. For more information have a look at my post on “Consistency of Athletes“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 32 Gina Crawford NZL 09:23:30 09:25:14 00:50:11 05:17:22 03:10:56 78% +2% -20% (37) 20
2 33 Beth Gerdes USA 09:25:35 09:35:51 00:58:02 05:19:53 03:02:40 47% +40% -14% (12) 40
3 31 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:33:00 09:44:22 00:54:33 05:15:27 03:18:00 91% +0% -9% (10) 53
4 37 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:36:50 10:08:41 00:51:09 05:11:48 03:28:54 16% +13% -71% (13) (107)
5 35 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:41:50 09:46:00 00:58:20 05:22:03 03:16:27 71% +29% -0% (8) 56
6 34 Melanie Burke NZL 09:44:52 09:51:11 01:01:46 05:19:03 03:19:02 74% +15% -11% (10) 69
7 41 Alison Fitch AUS 09:46:04 09:50:08 00:51:39 05:20:13 03:29:12 100% +0% -0% (7) (65)
8 40 Wendy Mcalpine AUS 09:54:24 10:11:29 00:55:54 05:22:35 03:30:55 100% +0% -0% (1) (112)
9 38 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:04:12 10:23:50 00:55:49 05:21:26 03:41:56 35% +15% -50% (9) (145)
10 36 Amy Javens USA 10:16:37 10:22:56 01:04:39 05:28:37 03:38:21 100% +0% -0% (4) 141
11 39 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:30 10:29:26 01:00:08 05:31:15 03:41:07 58% +28% -15% (6) 160
42 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Jessica Richards AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Even if almost all the athletes are from Australia or New Zealand, it’ll be an interesting, wide open race: Most of the top-rated athletes have been struggling a bit lately. Brad Kahlefeldt has only finished one IM, followed by a DNF in Kona. David Dellow had a fantastic sub-8 in Roth but also a string of DNFs. Dougal Allan has already been racing a lot this year, posting bike records in Wanaka and at IM New Zealand, but it’s unclear if he’s recovered well for another fast race. Defending champion Paul Ambrose is seeded fourth in my data, if he has a good day he’ll be the one to watch. Luke Bell is another great athlete, but he’s been quite inconsistent lately. Tim Reed is returning to the IM distance after a DNF in Western Australia – as a strong swimmer he’ll be in the mix for a long time, but he’ll need a solid run for a solid Ironman finish.

In addition, with Josh Amberger and Levi Maxwell there are two Ironman-rookies that make predicting the race even harder.

  • Dougal Allan: 29% (2-1)
  • David Dellow: 27% (3-1)
  • Brad Kahlefeldt: 20% (4-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 11% (8-1)
  • Luke Bell: 11% (8-1)

Female Race Participants

Gina Crawford is clearly the best rated athlete in the women’s field, but she hasn’t had many good results lately and seems to be dialing back her racing career this year. This would put US athlete (but currently Australian-based) Beth Gerdes into the favorite’s role. Beth will be eying Lisa Bentley’s run record (3:01:06) – and so far we haven’t had a sub-3 women’s run this year. Defending champion Michelle Bremer should be in front of Beth for the swim and bike, but Michelle will need another new run PR (she just ran 3:14 at IM New Zealand) to defend her title.

  • Gina Crawford: 35% (2-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 33% (2-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 19% (4-1)
  • Lisa Marangon: 6% (15-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 3% (29-1)
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