Ironman Austria 2015 (June 28th) – Predictions

IMAustriaLogo Update (June 21st): Corinne Abraham has mentioned on Twitter that she won’t be racing Austria and is looking into other options.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:14:37 Katherine Allen (AUT) 09:07:04
2006 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:07:59 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:12:09
2007 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:39 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:08:45
2008 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:11 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:47:26
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:01:38 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 08:50:13
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:52:05 Eva Dollinger (AUT) 09:18:50
2011 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:45:58 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:43:34
2012 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:11:31 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:09:58
2013 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:59:51 Erika Csomor (HUN) 08:59:31
2014 Ivan Rana (ESP) 07:48:43 Linsey Corbin (USA) 08:42:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ivan Rana ESP 00:44:36 04:15:57 02:43:43 07:48:43
2 Christian Kramer GER 00:44:30 04:18:26 02:46:46 07:54:31
3 David Plese SLO 00:49:57 04:23:52 02:44:06 08:02:54

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Linsey Corbin USA 00:53:02 04:47:02 02:56:52 08:42:42
2 Simone Braendli SUI 00:45:51 04:57:15 03:01:14 08:49:16
3 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:52:05 04:48:55 03:07:26 08:53:20

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:45:58 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Swim overall 00:42:54 Bart Colpaert 2013-06-30
Bike overall 04:15:37 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Run overall 02:39:24 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Total female 08:42:42 Linsey Corbin 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:45:51 Simone Braendli 2014-06-29
Bike female 04:43:50 Diana Riesler 2011-07-03
Run female 02:54:45 Sandra Wallenhorst 2008-07-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Austria is 18:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Austria

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 15:28 02:26 05:09 03:16 26 15:28 02:26 05:09 03:16
2007 13:37 02:22 13:36 03:11 24 14:32 02:24 09:23 03:13
2008 22:48 02:16 14:02 06:31 33 17:17 02:21 10:56 04:19
2009 21:45 01:14 14:45 04:17 28 18:24 02:05 11:53 04:19
2010 16:23 00:52 11:01 02:17 30 18:00 01:50 11:43 03:54
2011 25:48 01:58 15:01 09:56 25 19:18 01:51 12:16 04:55
2012 08:43 -03:26 11:51 -00:02 21 17:47 01:06 12:12 04:12
2013 23:14 05:43 12:28 06:03 42 18:28 01:41 12:14 04:26
2014 19:44 03:05 10:41 07:57 36 18:37 01:50 12:04 04:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Austria is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Ivan Rana ESP 07:59:49 08:25:11 00:45:52 04:23:10 02:45:47 10
2 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 07:59:55 08:22:11 00:47:12 04:17:48 02:49:55 5
3 10 Michael Weiss AUT 08:06:35 08:31:05 00:51:31 04:16:55 02:53:09 17
4 4 Andreas Giglmayr AUT 08:11:57 08:42:20 00:45:39 04:18:54 03:02:23 (56)
5 3 David Plese SLO 08:14:59 08:39:44 00:50:55 04:26:20 02:52:45 47
6 5 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:24:35 09:04:29 00:46:08 04:34:44 02:58:43 (146)
7 22 Miguel Fidalgo ESP 08:27:54 08:56:36 00:46:18 04:48:26 02:48:10 (114)
8 8 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:31:13 08:55:26 00:50:44 04:44:36 02:50:52 110
9 12 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:35:01 09:03:28 00:54:16 04:28:02 03:07:43 141
10 6 Massimo Cigana ITA 08:38:36 08:51:08 00:53:30 04:30:05 03:10:01 (89)
11 7 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:40:49 09:06:29 00:51:40 04:38:43 03:05:27 (152)
12 39 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 08:41:30 09:02:57 00:50:02 04:42:25 03:04:02 138
13 11 Christian Birngruber AUT 08:42:18 09:14:34 00:51:09 04:40:53 03:05:16 (193)
14 37 Matic Modic SLO 09:01:04 09:35:37 00:54:37 04:51:13 03:10:14 (280)
15 30 James Brown GBR 09:04:55 09:32:22 00:59:03 04:49:39 03:11:13 265
16 28 Lukas Polan CZE 09:10:53 09:49:53 01:01:56 04:49:17 03:14:40 328
17 13 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:13:04 09:44:19 00:54:05 04:53:26 03:20:33 (309)
18 36 David Jilek CZE 09:19:17 09:52:19 00:56:50 04:48:57 03:28:30 (340)
19 15 Armin Atzlinger AUT 09:31:39 10:03:58 00:52:57 05:05:57 03:27:45 (377)
20 34 Mario Radevic GER 09:36:43 10:09:18 01:00:17 04:59:33 03:31:53 (394)
21 24 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:42:22 10:04:49 01:07:58 05:04:45 03:24:39 380
22 29 Matthew Smith CZE 09:48:30 10:24:51 01:00:02 05:20:10 03:23:17 (437)
23 26 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:01:52 10:28:09 00:59:58 05:12:29 03:44:25 (442)
24 33 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:07:53 10:42:14 01:06:04 05:22:43 03:34:07 (457)
25 19 Rodrigo Acevedo COL 10:15:16 10:50:02 00:51:06 05:26:25 03:52:45 (460)
26 18 Robert Pingitzer AUT 10:17:57 10:56:07 00:59:15 04:44:40 04:29:01 (462)
27 21 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:15:55 12:10:03 01:08:41 05:35:08 04:27:06 470
28 35 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:20:33 12:01:50 01:10:29 05:48:12 04:16:53 469
9 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Roman Thuerauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Werner Steiner AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Thomas Angerer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Michal Jalovecky CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Marco Marini ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Luca Cozza ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Daniel Beynon GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Lluis Vila aguilar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

After winning Brasil, Marino Vanhoenacker has an automatic qualifier slot, but it is unclear if he is going to accept it. Ivan Rana (4.560 points) is also safe for Kona if he wants to. Then there is Michael Weiss (3.427 points) who needs a few more points for a slot.

Behind these, there are Miguel Fidalgo (1.998 points) and David Plese (1.325 points) are the athletes with the most KPR points, but they are probably too far back to be able to secure a slot in Austria.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 54 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 08:56:25 09:23:15 00:54:04 04:47:45 03:09:36 15
2 50 Eva Wutti AUT 08:59:03 09:19:28 00:55:37 04:51:00 03:07:26 11
3 63 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:04:40 09:23:37 00:57:38 04:56:22 03:05:40 16
4 53 Erika Csomor HUN 09:07:18 09:42:26 00:55:54 04:56:09 03:10:15 47
5 51 Michi Herlbauer AUT 09:07:23 09:41:24 00:52:44 05:00:44 03:08:55 (46)
6 52 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:14:36 09:40:12 00:59:32 04:59:17 03:10:48 44
7 64 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:16:23 09:43:55 00:57:51 05:02:51 03:10:41 48
8 57 Kamila Polak AUT 09:32:59 10:05:22 00:56:47 05:11:14 03:19:58 (99)
9 56 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:33:19 10:01:03 01:02:15 04:59:03 03:27:01 88
10 59 Christina Jackson USA 09:36:42 10:09:01 00:51:15 05:05:12 03:35:15 (107)
11 55 Martina Dogana ITA 09:36:58 09:52:17 00:57:10 05:23:01 03:11:47 (67)
12 58 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:43:01 10:15:58 00:58:25 05:22:38 03:16:58 (116)
13 62 Gabriella Zelinka HUN 09:46:19 10:19:27 00:57:27 05:18:56 03:24:56 (127)
14 61 Cindy Lewis CAN 09:51:49 10:22:09 00:59:40 05:20:38 03:26:31 134
15 65 Nicole Woysch GER 09:53:44 10:28:48 00:55:54 05:13:03 03:39:47 147
60 Cori Burnett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

There are a lot of female athletes looking for their remaining KPR points in order to qualify in July (estimated cutoff at 5.100 points): Corinne Abraham (4.725), Eva Wutti (4.170), Lisa Huetthaler (3.595) and Sarah Piampiano (3.435 but already 5 races) already have a decent number of points.

Behind these four, the athlete with the most points is Michi Herlbauer, but with 1.600 points she is still far back from the estimated cutoff.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The main contenders in the male race are Marino and Ivan who posted the two fastest times on this course:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 38% (2-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 32% (2-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 20% (4-1)
  • David Plese: 4% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

The Austrians are hoping for a home winner in the female race: With Lisa Huetthaler, Eva Wutti and Michi Herlbauer there are three strong contenders. They face Corinne Abraham (racing again after Brasil), Erika Csomor (winner in 2013 and always fast in the summer IMs), and Sarah Piampiano (getting faster and faster after her injury break last year):

  • Lisa Huetthaler: 35% (2-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 27% (3-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 14% (6-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 10% (9-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 7% (13-1)
  • Michi Herlbauer: 5% (19-1)
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