Ironman Austria (June 26th) – Predictions

IMAustriaLogoUpdate June 16th: Shortly after the startlist was published, Natascha Badmann told the organizers she won’t be racing as she is still recovering from a crash at 70.3 Pescara.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:14:37 Katherine Allen (AUT) 09:07:04
2006 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:07:59 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:12:09
2007 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:39 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:08:45
2008 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:11 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:47:26
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:01:38 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 08:50:13
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:52:05 Eva Dollinger (AUT) 09:18:50
2011 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:45:58 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:43:34
2012 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:11:31 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:09:58
2013 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:59:51 Erika Csomor (HUN) 08:59:31
2014 Ivan Rana (ESP) 07:48:43 Linsey Corbin (USA) 08:42:42
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:48:45 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:45:37

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:46:40 04:11:47 02:45:53 07:48:45
2 Michael Weiss AUT 00:51:52 04:20:57 02:48:18 08:06:59
3 Ivan Rana ESP 00:46:36 04:32:55 02:44:27 08:08:25

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:39 04:53:57 02:54:42 08:45:37
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:52:45 04:53:41 03:11:43 09:02:46
3 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:56:59 05:00:09 03:00:12 09:03:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:45:58 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Swim overall 00:42:54 Bart Colpaert 2013-06-30
Bike overall 04:11:47 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-06-28
Run overall 02:39:24 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Total female 08:42:42 Linsey Corbin 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:45:51 Simone Braendli 2014-06-29
Bike female 04:43:50 Diana Riesler 2011-07-03
Run female 02:54:42 Eva Wutti 2015-06-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Austria is 18:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Austria

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10 39 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10
2007 14:39 02:24 15:21 02:20 32 15:31 02:22 10:30 02:45
2008 22:57 02:15 14:00 05:55 39 18:00 02:20 11:40 03:48
2009 22:11 01:16 14:53 03:56 37 19:02 02:04 12:28 03:50
2010 17:33 00:53 10:38 02:04 36 18:44 01:50 12:06 03:29
2011 26:23 02:07 14:54 09:46 31 20:01 01:53 12:34 04:32
2012 06:40 -03:09 12:13 -00:11 30 18:07 01:10 12:31 03:51
2013 23:40 05:41 12:33 05:39 60 18:48 01:43 12:31 04:05
2014 20:04 03:01 10:57 07:44 56 of 65 18:57 01:52 12:21 04:29
2015 16:59 02:15 10:10 06:10 32 of 46 18:45 01:54 12:08 04:39

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Austria is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 07:52:13 08:24:35 00:46:54 04:12:30 02:47:50 46% +18% -37% (21) 10
2 8 Michael Weiss AUT 08:07:27 08:32:17 00:51:52 04:17:59 02:52:36 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
3 3 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:12:17 08:30:40 00:50:07 04:28:40 02:48:30 75% +0% -25% (8) (23)
4 6 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:17:17 08:35:24 00:50:11 04:34:42 02:47:25 81% +0% -19% (6) 41
5 4 David Plese SLO 08:17:56 08:41:23 00:50:33 04:30:16 02:52:07 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
6 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:19:42 08:40:52 00:49:25 04:35:19 02:49:58 74% +0% -26% (18) 57
7 53 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:19:49 08:49:07 00:47:06 04:31:54 02:55:50 42% +0% -58% (11) (84)
8 56 Michael Raelert GER 08:20:46 08:47:46 00:46:08 04:33:07 02:56:31 11% +20% -69% (4) (77)
9 10 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:23:56 08:48:52 00:45:34 04:37:36 02:55:46 38% +16% -46% (7) 83
10 54 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:25:25 08:50:54 00:46:38 04:33:56 02:59:50 51% +3% -46% (21) 90
11 21 Matthias Knossalla GER 08:32:21 09:03:09 01:01:53 04:27:15 02:58:13 29% +71% -0% (2) (137)
12 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:33:15 08:58:46 00:51:43 04:38:41 02:57:51 45% +32% -23% (9) 117
13 47 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:34:20 08:53:05 00:46:14 04:39:14 03:03:52 26% +32% -42% (14) 95
14 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:35:24 09:04:24 00:52:32 04:37:37 03:00:15 47% +39% -13% (6) 144
15 13 Vincent Riess AUT 08:35:32 09:19:38 00:52:32 04:47:33 02:50:27 11% +0% -89% (5) (196)
16 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:37:26 09:02:59 00:46:50 04:50:27 02:55:09 85% +0% -15% (10) 134
17 29 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:38:17 09:08:36 00:47:24 04:42:16 03:03:36 58% +0% -42% (6) 160
18 57 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:39:51 09:19:49 00:51:27 04:38:18 03:05:06 41% +0% -59% (4) (197)
19 27 Xavier Torrades ESP 08:41:18 09:05:35 00:47:36 04:45:17 03:03:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (152)
20 30 Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 08:42:11 09:08:28 00:56:38 04:45:41 02:54:51 38% +8% -54% (13) (159)
21 11 Christian Birngruber AUT 08:43:59 09:13:35 00:50:06 04:36:43 03:12:10 74% +0% -26% (3) (180)
22 14 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:44:34 09:17:11 00:53:45 04:31:12 03:14:37 76% +0% -24% (9) (192)
23 32 Freddy Lampret ZAF 08:47:46 09:36:27 00:50:36 04:39:29 03:12:41 1% +46% -52% (8) 239
24 43 Antony Costes FRA 08:50:06 09:25:10 00:47:16 04:32:21 03:25:29 47% +0% -53% (2) (207)
25 48 Denis Sketako SLO 08:51:14 09:17:42 00:56:49 04:40:04 03:09:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
26 45 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:52:57 09:14:25 00:53:46 04:43:44 03:10:27 42% +0% -58% (6) 183
27 35 Oliver Simon GBR 09:03:20 09:33:09 00:47:20 04:44:33 03:26:27 67% +0% -33% (11) 229
28 38 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:04:23 09:37:20 00:51:36 04:52:03 03:15:45 18% +7% -75% (8) 241
29 31 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:06:23 09:43:49 00:57:33 04:50:48 03:13:02 39% +33% -28% (9) 254
30 20 Michael Louys BEL 09:09:35 09:35:44 01:00:14 04:47:30 03:16:51 55% +15% -30% (7) 238
31 40 Harri Sokk EST 09:10:08 09:29:51 00:56:42 04:38:11 03:30:15 100% +0% -0% (3) 220
32 17 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:12:27 09:58:31 00:53:47 04:52:07 03:21:33 24% +0% -76% (3) (274)
33 58 Martin Kleinl AUT 09:13:15 09:47:35 00:59:11 04:41:42 03:27:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (259)
34 50 David Jilek CZE 09:14:48 09:53:28 00:56:21 04:50:02 03:23:25 74% +0% -26% (5) 266
35 16 Armin Atzlinger AUT 09:17:12 09:46:48 00:55:08 05:06:47 03:10:17 100% +0% -0% (2) (258)
36 55 Lukas Polan CZE 09:19:15 09:56:55 01:00:12 04:56:16 03:17:47 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
37 28 Gili Oriol ESP 09:21:37 10:10:17 00:53:28 04:48:56 03:34:14 49% +51% -0% (2) (284)
38 49 Juha Laitinen FIN 09:31:15 10:16:40 01:02:47 05:02:47 03:20:42 9% +30% -61% (6) 287
39 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:21 10:13:14 00:58:49 05:09:22 03:21:09 56% +5% -39% (18) 285
40 26 Stephan Trettin GER 09:55:14 10:29:02 00:59:08 05:04:46 03:46:20 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
41 37 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 09:58:56 10:41:03 00:59:38 05:10:54 03:43:24 10% +0% -90% (6) (294)
42 42 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:12:28 10:46:02 00:59:35 05:41:35 03:26:19 67% +0% -33% (3) 296
43 22 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:15:14 10:50:10 01:01:16 05:13:57 03:55:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (298)
44 15 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 10:20:27 10:55:41 00:57:21 04:50:40 04:27:26 58% +0% -42% (2) (299)
45 34 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:01:30 12:09:58 01:09:18 05:38:35 04:08:37 39% +12% -49% (13) 304
46 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:16:19 12:04:43 01:08:28 05:34:07 04:28:43 39% +20% -41% (33) 303
7 Paul Reitmayr AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Paul Ruttmann AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Lluis Vila aguilar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Maximilian Gruber AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Bart Borghs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Joan Capdevila ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Albert Garces ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Pavel Simko SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
46 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 David Krupicka CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

As it’s getting closer to the July cutoff, there are a number of athletes looking to secure KPR points to qualify in the July cutoff (projected cutoff at 3.500 points):

  • Bart Aernouts has enough points (4.325) but needs an Ironman finish.
  • Mauro Bartsch should already be safe for Kona (4.025 points).
  • With David Plese (3415), Alessandro Degasperi (3320), Michael Weiss (3415) and Antony Costes (3120) there are four athletes “on the bubble”, if they can add a few more points they should be able to secure a July slot. A result somewhere between 7th = 405 points and 19th = 120 should be enough for them.
  • Harry Wiltshire (2875) and Mike Aigroz (2480) need to finish in the Top3 to secure enough points.
  • Michael Raelert (3220) had to cancel his start at IM France because of an injury, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to race. He needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a Kona slot, and a Top7 result should be enough for him to qualify.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 61 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:47:25 09:08:15 00:53:18 04:56:19 02:52:48 32% +20% -49% (13) (3)
2 63 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:08:32 09:40:32 00:52:33 05:02:54 03:08:05 48% +0% -52% (4) 50
3 65 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:11:12 09:39:12 00:59:11 05:01:14 03:05:47 100% +0% -0% (5) 45
4 62 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:17:50 09:39:17 00:59:40 04:55:43 03:17:27 42% +0% -58% (17) 46
5 70 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:22:22 09:51:50 00:59:30 05:11:08 03:06:43 47% +53% -0% (6) 72
6 68 Amber Ferreira USA 09:28:08 09:55:55 00:54:26 05:08:44 03:19:58 40% +31% -30% (13) 82
7 64 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:29:26 09:53:23 00:55:25 05:12:12 03:16:49 74% +26% -0% (4) 77
8 73 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:35:41 09:58:48 00:52:10 05:17:57 03:20:34 59% +0% -41% (10) 87
9 66 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:36:50 10:03:31 01:01:57 05:04:34 03:25:19 100% +0% -0% (6) 95
10 67 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:03:25 10:29:50 01:00:17 05:27:47 03:30:21 34% +27% -39% (5) 158
11 69 Jana Candrova CZE 10:06:00 10:38:19 01:02:22 05:24:16 03:34:21 54% +4% -42% (13) 169
12 71 Frankie Sanjana GBR 10:28:14 11:03:55 01:03:48 05:29:25 03:50:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)

Because the women have fewer slots, they will have to score about 4.500 points for a July slot. There are not too many athletes in the female field concerned about qualifying:

  • Mirinda Carfrae just needs a “competitive finish” to validate her Automatic Qualifier slot.
  • Bianca Steuer has 3235 points, she needs a Top3 result to get to the cutoff.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Seven-time winner and course record holder Marino Vanhoenacker is back to defend his title, he has made it clear that his focus for this year is on a good Austria result. If he is on form, he’ll be hard to beat. If Marino runs into problems, watch out for Bart Aernouts. Bart is a fantastic runner who has been struggling a bit to put together a good Ironman result for some time. He has posted one of the fastest runs with a 2:37 marathon at IM France 2013 when he had an epic battle with Fredrik Van Lierde.

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 64% (1-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bart Aernouts: 7% (13-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 4% (22-1)

Female Race Participants

There can’t be any doubt that Miranda Carfrae is the clear favorite on the women’s side. Outside of Kona she hasn’t always had the best results, but after her DNF in Kona last year I would guess that she wants to show to Daniela Ryf that she is still someone to be concerned about. The big question is how big of a statement Rinny can make – a few potential goals for her:

  • Austria Course Record: 8:42:42 by Linsey Corbin 2014
  • Rinny’s PR (also Australian Record): 8:38:53 at Roth 2014
  • Fastest “WTC IM”: Chrissie Wellington 8:33:56 South Africa 2011
  • Fastest Ironman-distance: Chrissie Wellington 8:18:13 Roth 2011

Here are the odds for the female race:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 61% (1-1)
  • Elisabeth Gruber: 14% (6-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 4% (21-1)
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