Ironman Brasil 2015 (May 31st) – Predictions

IMBrasilYou can submit your own predictions for IM Brasil at IM-Predictions.

Updates (May 30th): After checkin, Guto Antunes, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler and Eimear Mullan are no longer on the start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:47:38 04:26:06 02:52:07 08:07:54
2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 00:51:08 04:20:44 02:55:43 08:11:46
3 Marcel Zamora ESP 00:50:49 04:26:41 02:53:22 08:16:16

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sara Gross CAN 00:55:41 04:49:42 03:06:12 08:56:35
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:41 04:49:24 03:09:41 09:00:21
3 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:59:28 04:55:21 03:02:53 09:02:44

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:01:32 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:20:44 Santiago Ascenco 2014-05-25
Run overall 02:49:31 Ezequiel Morales 2010-05-30
Total female 08:56:35 Sara Gross 2014-05-25
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 03:02:53 Ariane Monticeli 2014-05-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 17:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 17:51 01:58 04:01 00:49 21 17:51 01:58 04:01 00:49
2007 14:50 -00:15 06:43 03:00 24 16:20 00:51 05:22 01:55
2008 09:19 -06:37 11:23 01:14 25 14:00 -01:38 07:22 01:41
2009 17:23 -00:30 09:10 03:46 26 14:51 -01:21 07:49 02:12
2010 21:29 04:10 09:36 00:25 36 16:10 -00:15 08:11 01:51
2011 20:26 n/a n/a n/a 26 16:53 -00:15 08:11 01:51
2012 15:35 02:31 21:24 -04:24 23 16:42 00:13 10:23 00:48
2013 15:44 02:40 16:05 04:16 33 16:34 00:34 11:12 01:18
2014 23:14 00:24 21:43 05:46 29 17:19 00:33 12:31 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. The winners will receive automatic Kona slots.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Brent McMahon CAN 07:52:47 08:18:15 00:45:58 04:17:42 02:44:06 (4)
2 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:09:06 08:37:20 00:46:08 04:23:52 02:54:06 38
3 7 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:10:16 08:27:46 00:48:56 04:20:05 02:56:15 15
4 38 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:12:55 08:30:24 00:48:49 04:24:29 02:54:38 17
5 6 Paul Matthews AUS 08:13:50 08:26:11 00:45:58 04:27:53 02:54:58 11
6 10 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:16:27 08:38:58 00:46:41 04:33:01 02:51:46 43
7 1 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:18:07 08:38:50 00:46:38 04:29:41 02:56:47 42
8 8 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:19:47 08:38:58 00:49:05 04:30:57 02:54:44 43
9 9 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:19:54 08:33:42 00:48:34 04:24:40 03:01:39 29
10 2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:21:08 08:45:52 00:49:56 04:27:41 02:58:32 (66)
11 12 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:25:22 08:46:23 00:48:30 04:32:33 02:59:19 68
12 32 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:28:19 08:52:32 00:47:58 04:31:46 03:03:36 96
13 23 Per Bittner GER 08:28:20 08:44:33 00:49:18 04:33:14 03:00:48 62
14 29 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:28:36 08:48:21 00:48:14 04:35:32 02:59:51 81
15 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:29:22 08:55:33 00:48:09 04:38:19 02:57:53 112
16 19 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:30:03 08:59:54 00:52:15 04:29:46 03:03:01 129
17 11 Mario De Elias ARG 08:36:29 09:13:55 00:49:47 04:39:45 03:01:58 (189)
18 13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:39:10 09:04:00 00:47:36 04:50:30 02:56:03 148
19 40 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:39:58 08:57:33 00:52:44 04:36:55 03:05:18 120
20 16 Simon Billeau FRA 08:40:52 08:55:43 00:53:47 04:30:26 03:11:39 113
21 17 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:43:00 09:00:43 00:47:11 04:37:19 03:13:31 132
22 42 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:44:40 09:01:53 00:55:10 04:44:44 02:59:46 136
23 39 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:46:00 09:07:26 00:53:16 04:36:47 03:10:57 158
24 26 Ciro Violin BRA 08:46:43 09:26:29 00:50:08 04:41:04 03:10:32 (243)
25 15 Marcel Bischof GER 08:46:57 09:19:14 00:55:06 04:40:43 03:06:08 208
26 20 Ivan Risti ITA 08:48:00 09:16:27 00:47:11 04:54:45 03:01:04 (197)
27 28 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:48:11 09:10:19 00:48:19 04:44:16 03:10:37 176
28 36 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:52:14 09:36:39 00:51:38 04:43:39 03:11:57 (282)
29 27 Guto Antunes BRA 09:03:27 09:35:35 00:50:55 04:58:25 03:09:06 (278)
30 18 Rene Vallant AUT 09:06:49 09:41:44 00:55:12 04:37:24 03:29:12 (304)
31 5 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:18:39 10:04:38 00:46:43 05:01:08 03:25:47 378
32 25 Edmilson Pereira BRA 09:20:08 09:53:16 00:49:40 05:12:47 03:12:41 (347)
33 30 Christian Carletto ARG 09:23:18 09:50:49 00:54:09 04:56:09 03:27:59 (335)
34 37 Gaston Duran ARG 09:46:36 10:21:17 00:57:40 05:10:09 03:33:47 (428)
35 35 Andres Darricau Arg 09:54:00 10:26:01 00:54:51 04:58:43 03:55:26 (439)
14 Jason Britton CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Alejo Badino ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Sergio Carrettoni ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Bruno Lazaretti BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 64 Anja Beranek GER 09:04:53 09:32:43 00:52:03 04:49:36 03:18:14 (30)
2 59 Tine Deckers BEL 09:05:28 09:38:44 00:57:43 04:53:21 03:09:25 43
3 65 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:06:14 09:30:10 00:55:55 05:01:34 03:03:45 26
4 68 Diana Riesler GER 09:07:03 09:33:41 00:56:51 04:48:23 03:16:49 31
5 53 Haley Chura USA 09:11:39 09:37:25 00:47:49 05:02:02 03:16:48 40
6 52 Amanda Stevens USA 09:12:26 09:35:48 00:49:35 04:55:30 03:22:20 34
7 71 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:14:50 09:32:35 00:59:28 04:57:02 03:13:20 29
8 54 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:18:17 09:53:18 01:00:13 05:05:20 03:07:45 72
9 76 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:10 09:37:00 00:59:24 04:52:01 03:22:45 39
10 60 Lucie Reed CZE 09:20:19 09:47:03 00:50:06 05:04:01 03:21:11 55
11 77 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:21:20 09:52:51 00:58:27 05:05:52 03:12:01 70
12 70 Ashley Clifford USA 09:23:50 09:40:16 00:54:06 05:14:22 03:10:22 46
13 61 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:24:08 09:43:53 00:58:17 04:58:53 03:21:58 49
14 66 Laurel Wassner USA 09:24:36 09:46:54 00:53:51 05:14:04 03:11:42 53
15 67 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:31:32 10:16:16 00:59:08 04:56:27 03:30:56 117
16 58 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 09:34:55 10:01:39 00:52:05 05:02:20 03:35:31 (88)
17 72 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:40:11 10:05:18 00:55:24 05:15:01 03:24:46 97
18 74 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:40:27 10:25:02 00:54:56 04:59:30 03:41:01 143
62 Laura Barrena ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

As a Regional Championship, Basil is a P-4000 race so a lot of athletes that are trying to qualify for Kona will be on the start line.

Female

In order to qualify for Kona, Liz Lyles (4.390) basically needs an Ironman finish – even if she is looking for a much better result in Brasil.

In addition to Liz, there is a large number of athletes that want to score the points they still need for a Kona slot. Ashley Clifford has currently the most points (4.130-1.070) but as she already raced three IMs she is effectively sitting at 3.060 points. Asa Lundstroem (3.740-405) has also three IMs. Ariane Monticelli (3.810), Haley Chura (3.240), Mareen Hufe (3.155) and Astrid Ganzow (2.520) can add another IM to their score. Anja Beranek (2.170) and Amanda Stevens (2.140) would need at least a podium finish to have enough points for a Kona slot.

We also have Diana Riesler (4.270), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear Mullan (2.000), but it’s doubtful that they will start in Brasil as they are also on the list for Lanzarote just one week before Brasil.

Male

Matt Trautmann (5.525) and Brent McMahon (4.380) should already be safe for a Kona slot at this point, they are in Brasil to gain more racing experience and maybe win another Ironman.

Things are more critical for athletes that need more points: Guilherme Manochio (2.685), Denis Chevrot (2.500), Tim O’Donnell (2.230), Igor Amorelli (1.885) and Paul Matthews (1.810) can add one more IM to their score. Others have already raced three IMs, so their worst score will get bumped from the total. This includes Per Bittner (3.030-540), Nick Baldwin (2.400-540) and Karol Dzalaj (2.349-305).

In addition to these, almost all athletes have a chance to qualify for Kona with a podium finish in Brasil, this includes Kona 2014 participant Kyle Buckingham (1.330).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Marino Vanhoenacker has announced that he won’t be targeting Kona any more, but still wants to win a few more Ironman races – he’s my favorite for Brasil. He’ll be competing against athletes that need Kona points (as noted above), especially “TO” Tim O’Donnell, Paul Matthews, Denis Chevrot or Igor Amorelli. Brent McMahon and Matt Trautmann can race without any points pressure – they’ll be focused on another Ironman win:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 24% (3-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 23% (3-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 9% (10-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 8% (11-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 5% (18-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

It’s very hard to pick a favorite in the pretty even field at Brasil. Based on the number I see a slight advantage for Tine Deckers, but she had two DNFs in her last IMs in Mont Tremblant and South Africa. Haley Chura seems to be on a good upward path, her last IM was a win in Fortaleza. Liz Lyles had great results in 2014 (2nd in Germany and 7th in Kona) and showed her good form by winning Wildflower. Anja Beranek has taken a bit of a break from IM racing (her last was a DNF in Kona 2013) – it will be interesting to see what she’ll be able to do. Amanda Stevens will be close to the front for most of the day, but she’ll need a great run to repeat her 2013 win.

  • Tine Deckers: 35% (2-1)
  • Haley Chura: 21% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 13% (7-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 10% (9-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 9% (10-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 6% (17-1)
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