Ironman Brasil (May 29th) – Predictions

IMBRA_Logo Update May 28th: After the Pro briefing and thanks to a tweet by Witsup, we know that a few females won’t be racing, namely Kirsty Jahn, Mackenzie Madison, Molly Roohi, Tine Holst and Alexandra Moura. (I haven’t seen similar information for the men.)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:53:44 Ariane Monticeli (BRA) 08:59:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:48:31 04:11:23 02:49:38 07:53:44
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:03 04:19:26 02:45:52 07:55:56
3 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:02 04:19:01 02:47:08 07:56:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:00:18 04:57:59 02:56:28 08:59:08
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:49 04:54:31 03:03:04 09:00:31
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:15 04:57:32 03:05:47 09:01:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:53:44 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:11:23 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Run overall 02:44:31 Matt Trautman 2015-05-31
Total female 08:56:35 Sara Gross 2014-05-25
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 02:56:28 Ariane Monticeli 2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24 37 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24
2007 14:36 -00:17 06:48 02:59 40 16:17 00:51 05:35 02:41
2008 09:37 -06:37 11:32 01:25 45 14:04 -01:38 07:34 02:16
2009 17:43 -00:30 09:27 04:57 39 14:59 -01:21 08:02 02:56
2010 21:43 04:13 09:54 01:16 42 16:20 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2011 20:54 n/a n/a n/a 29 17:05 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2012 16:21 02:26 21:44 -05:16 32 16:59 00:12 10:38 01:17
2013 16:51 02:40 16:25 03:59 41 of 45 16:58 00:33 11:27 01:41
2014 23:43 00:24 22:05 05:36 34 of 40 17:43 00:32 12:47 02:10
2015 22:37 -00:06 17:43 04:00 33 of 47 18:12 00:28 13:20 02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race and offers automatic qualifier slots for the winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:58 08:16:31 00:46:38 04:21:30 02:48:50 100% +0% -0% (4) 3
2 30 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:13:05 08:27:11 00:51:27 04:24:59 02:51:39 70% +1% -29% (26) 17
3 31 Stefan Schmid GER 08:13:44 08:37:19 00:51:39 04:23:08 02:53:57 44% +56% -0% (11) 43
4 10 Tim Don GBR 08:18:48 08:37:18 00:47:29 04:32:10 02:54:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (43)
5 28 Paul Matthews AUS 08:21:40 08:43:42 00:46:00 04:26:40 03:04:00 17% +0% -83% (8) 65
6 14 Chris McDonald AUS 08:22:26 08:44:04 00:52:45 04:25:59 02:58:42 62% +8% -30% (41) 68
7 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:23:00 08:45:40 00:49:21 04:30:04 02:58:34 61% +35% -4% (10) 74
8 15 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:24:15 08:46:08 00:48:35 04:31:59 02:58:40 61% +0% -39% (10) (76)
9 5 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:24:24 08:45:52 00:47:49 04:31:24 03:00:11 58% +4% -38% (20) 75
10 23 Kevin Collington USA 08:24:59 08:53:07 00:49:14 04:35:39 02:55:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
11 29 Pedro Gomes POR 08:25:50 08:46:53 00:50:46 04:34:17 02:55:48 59% +6% -35% (21) 77
12 7 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:29:50 08:52:20 00:48:09 04:35:01 03:01:40 66% +3% -31% (18) 95
13 6 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:31:35 09:03:31 00:47:59 04:36:43 03:01:54 46% +43% -11% (6) 133
14 22 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:33:45 08:58:44 00:47:08 04:37:36 03:04:01 26% +32% -42% (14) 115
15 8 Mario De Elias ARG 08:36:30 09:04:46 00:50:58 04:44:21 02:56:11 49% +25% -26% (5) 145
16 27 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:40:35 09:02:44 00:51:41 04:36:55 03:06:59 55% +0% -45% (15) 129
17 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:41:26 09:05:16 00:48:31 04:53:48 02:54:07 81% +0% -19% (9) 149
18 32 Will Clarke GBR 08:45:46 09:15:03 00:49:34 04:34:31 03:16:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (186)
19 26 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:52:12 09:13:33 00:55:57 04:45:00 03:06:15 54% +0% -46% (4) 180
20 20 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:56:42 09:31:50 00:52:06 04:45:37 03:13:59 23% +9% -68% (7) 228
21 13 Brent Mcburney USA 09:17:56 10:04:49 00:57:34 04:55:46 03:19:36 22% +41% -38% (4) (279)
22 19 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:18:00 10:10:53 00:46:47 05:00:31 03:25:42 3% +0% -97% (8) (285)
11 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
16 Danilo Melo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Diego Serda ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Fellipe Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
24 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Also have a look at my profile of Liz Lyles.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 64 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:06:45 09:27:30 00:56:07 05:00:28 03:05:10 50% +13% -37% (13) 23
2 51 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:10:50 09:50:18 00:59:57 05:03:05 03:02:48 42% +35% -23% (13) 66
3 62 Caitlin Snow USA 09:15:15 09:34:56 00:55:38 05:09:36 03:05:01 64% +22% -14% (21) 41
4 75 Mareen Hufe GER 09:15:23 09:35:34 00:59:56 04:51:04 03:19:23 82% +6% -12% (20) 42
5 71 Kristin Moeller GER 09:15:58 09:33:47 01:02:53 05:06:45 03:01:21 79% +19% -2% (16) 39
6 72 Laurel Wassner USA 09:22:17 09:56:35 00:53:05 05:11:25 03:12:47 60% +0% -40% (7) 81
7 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:24:56 09:56:03 01:01:20 05:12:05 03:06:31 23% +77% -0% (5) 80
8 70 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:26:12 10:03:43 00:58:57 05:12:20 03:09:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
9 53 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:26:59 09:49:27 00:57:55 05:04:23 03:19:41 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
10 74 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:56 09:47:55 00:50:48 05:07:40 03:24:28 62% +0% -38% (23) 62
11 69 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:31:05 10:03:57 00:57:38 05:05:19 03:23:09 24% +63% -13% (9) 97
12 76 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:33:58 10:23:09 00:59:19 04:58:10 03:31:30 20% +29% -51% (10) 143
13 65 Erin Spitler USA 09:35:34 10:18:46 01:05:23 05:00:57 03:24:14 21% +41% -38% (6) 129
14 52 Brooke Brown CAN 09:36:13 09:57:47 01:01:55 05:08:04 03:21:14 52% +0% -48% (6) 86
15 57 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:37:28 10:17:08 00:54:59 05:13:03 03:24:27 53% +47% -0% (8) 124
16 55 Vanessa Raw GBR 09:39:18 10:11:34 00:53:21 05:06:55 03:34:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (115)
17 77 Molly Roohi USA 09:54:49 10:16:54 01:04:12 05:17:31 03:28:05 100% +0% -0% (4) (122)
18 67 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:02:56 10:24:55 01:00:15 05:37:44 03:19:57 78% +0% -22% (4) 152
61 Bruna Mahn BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A couple of athletes on the start list (such as Chris McDonald who raced Texas) are unlikely to start, but most of the pre-race favorites are committed to race in Florianopolis. Brent McMahon has had a number of really strong results including a third place in Brasil 2015 (behind Marino Vanhoenacker and Tim O’Donnell who won’t be racing Brasil this year). Stefan Schmid ended his 2015 season with a win in Cozumel and just needs a few more KPR points to secure his slot. Ronnie Schildknecht has already raced IM South Africa (finishing 9th), he also needs a few more points if he wants to return to Kona.

Behind these three athletes there is a number of athletes that are looking for a good result and the corresponding KPR points. Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit since racing Kona 2014, he was 17th in Brasil last year followed by two DNFs. As usual Tim Don has scored a ton of points in 70.3 races, he probably just needs to finish to secure his Kona ticket. Racing in his home country, Guillermo Manocchio will try to race at the same level as when he won IM Copenhagen last summer.

  • Brent McMahon: 36% (2-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 26% (3-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 8% (12-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 5% (18-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 4% (24-1)
  • Tim Don: 2% (55-1)
Will Clarke is moving up from the 70.3 distance. With IM Lanzarote 2015 his debut IM wasn’t a good experience, but he has taken some time to regroup and it will be interesting to see how he’ll be able to perform.

Female Race Participants

Earlier versions of the startlist had a lot of names that were also racing in Texas, now the field is taking a clearer shape. Liz Lyles (second last year) is the pre-race favorite in front of defending champion Ariane Monticelli. Caitlin Snow, Mareen Hufe and Kristin Moller are strong podium contenders.

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 37% (2-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 24% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 14% (6-1)
  • Caitlin Snow: 10% (9-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 6% (16-1)
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