Ironman Cairns 2015 (June 13th) – Predictions

CairnsLogoUpdate June 10th: Fredrik Croneborg announced on Twitter that he has a slight injury and won’t be able to start in Cairns.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:55:16 04:36:20 02:44:54 08:20:15
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:11 04:39:35 02:48:15 08:23:23
3 Peter Robertson AUS 00:50:34 04:41:13 02:58:08 08:33:26

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:47 05:13:09 03:06:57 09:16:58
2 Melanie Burke NZL 01:06:23 05:00:37 03:12:00 09:22:53
3 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:04:41 05:08:06 03:09:03 09:25:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:16:58 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08
Swim female 00:52:47 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Melanie Burke 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:06:57 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 01:30 01:09 04:20 01:47 12 01:30 01:09 04:20 01:47
2012 09:39 -01:17 06:56 -00:06 20 05:34 -00:04 05:38 00:51
2013 00:03 -02:09 07:36 -03:20 14 03:44 -00:46 06:17 -00:33
2014 02:09 -02:48 04:55 02:45 13 03:20 -01:16 05:57 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying ten deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:18 08:30:08 00:52:21 04:35:15 02:51:42 16
2 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:28:06 08:39:15 00:49:56 04:28:26 03:04:44 46
3 3 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:59 08:35:31 00:50:54 04:35:05 02:58:59 35
4 6 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:38:35 08:40:18 00:52:03 04:40:11 03:01:21 50
5 5 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:41:33 08:47:53 00:53:28 04:47:06 02:55:59 76
6 4 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:41:35 08:51:49 00:46:50 04:45:58 03:03:47 90
7 10 Luke Martin AUS 08:53:15 08:59:35 00:53:37 04:49:24 03:05:13 124
8 7 Brian Fuller AUS 08:54:39 09:02:02 00:52:57 04:45:05 03:11:38 136
9 12 Simon Billeau FRA 08:54:48 08:55:43 00:56:01 04:38:57 03:14:50 111
10 13 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:58:14 09:09:28 00:53:06 04:53:32 03:06:36 168
11 8 Luke Whitmore AUS 09:02:05 09:08:43 00:56:14 04:56:04 03:04:47 (164)
12 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:47:17 11:04:23 01:06:13 05:31:16 04:04:47 (459)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:13:59 09:17:12 00:52:02 05:08:21 03:08:36 8
2 22 Gina Crawford NZL 09:19:22 09:23:34 00:53:22 05:08:50 03:12:10 16
3 23 Beth Gerdes USA 09:30:50 09:47:01 01:03:43 05:14:58 03:07:09 53
4 25 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:37:33 09:36:55 00:59:25 05:13:28 03:19:40 37
5 24 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:42:42 09:47:49 00:59:13 05:11:57 03:26:32 56
6 33 Christie Sym AUS 09:52:51 10:14:59 00:59:59 05:14:06 03:33:46 (113)
7 28 Kym Coogan AUS 09:55:13 10:04:59 00:57:50 05:18:19 03:34:04 (96)
8 32 Marie Sorrell NZL 09:58:59 10:14:49 01:00:24 05:20:16 03:33:19 (113)
9 27 Larisa Marsh NZL 10:06:01 10:15:52 01:01:58 05:21:06 03:37:56 115
10 31 Ange Castle AUS 10:11:40 10:27:53 01:07:34 05:19:13 03:39:52 (146)
11 30 Kate Bruck USA 10:16:18 10:32:35 01:08:17 05:36:28 03:26:33 (150)
12 29 Jana Candrova CZE 10:24:50 10:31:44 01:06:15 05:32:00 03:41:34 149
26 Sarah Crowley AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Cameron Brown (4.545) is already safe for a slot, and Frederik Croneborg (3.975) just needs to slightly improve his score to also be safe. Behind these two, there are Dylan MacNeice (3.025) and Luke McKenzie (2.450) within a reasonable distance of my projected July cutoff of 3.800 points. James Cunnama (1.725) can also get close, but will need another score in addition to Cairns.

On the female side, only Beth Gerdes is still hunting for KPR points. She has already scored 4.515 points with some great results in Western Australia (4th in 9:04) and Melbourne (5th in 9:05) but is still short of the roughly 5.100 points that will be needed for a July slot. She has to improve her score from Malaysia (5th = 720) which would get bumped from her total score and needs at least a podium spot (3rd = 1280) to get close for a July slot. Liz Blatchford (6.170) and Gina Crawford (7.880) are already safe, and the others are probably too far back (Michelle Bremer with 2.000 has the best score).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the defending champion and the clear favorite for the win. Luke McKenzie and James Cunnama are looking for a good race after a few sub-par results.

  • Cameron Brown: 42% (1-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 23% (3-1)
  • James Cunnama: 14% (6-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 11% (8-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 7% (14-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 3% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is a toss-up between two-time defending champion Liz Blatchford and Gina Crawford. Behind these two, Beth Gerdes looks the favorite for the remaining podium spot.

  • Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 42% (1-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 9% (11-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 3% (37-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 2% (55-1)
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