Ironman Cairns 2016 (June 12th) – Predictions

IMCairnsLogo Update June 3rd: Liz Blatchford is disappointed to have withdrawn due to injury.

Update June 10th: There are rumors of other athletes not starting, so far I have only been able to verify Fredrik Croneborg, Will Clarke and Kirsty Jahn as DNS.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49

In 2011 the race was run as “Challenge Cairns”.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:47:18 04:30:19 02:57:37 08:18:01
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:49:44 04:40:42 02:52:54 08:26:22
3 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:54 04:49:41 02:58:40 08:36:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:49:54 05:07:37 03:10:30 09:11:49
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:37 05:10:34 03:12:58 09:20:56
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:56:34 05:13:02 03:22:31 09:35:32

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:11:49 Liz Blatchford 2015-06-14
Swim female 00:49:54 Liz Blatchford 2015-06-14
Bike female 05:00:37 Melanie Burke 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:06:57 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:50.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 01:35 01:11 04:26 01:36 16 01:35 01:11 04:26 01:36
2012 09:38 -01:14 07:05 -00:14 22 05:36 -00:02 05:45 00:41
2013 00:01 -02:07 07:46 -04:36 16 03:44 -00:43 06:26 -01:05
2014 02:14 -02:46 04:05 04:00 16 of 21 03:22 -01:14 05:51 00:11
2015 05:42 01:09 03:16 -00:42 16 of 19 03:50 -00:45 05:20 00:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

It replaces IM Melbourne as the Asia-Pacific Regional Championship.

Male Race Participants

All four male course record holders (Clayton Fettel for the swim, Luke McKenzie for the bike, Tim Berkel for the run and David Dellow for the overall time) are part of the strong field. Add in Cam Brown, 2012 Kona champion Pete Jacobs and Kona hopefuls Brad Kahlefeldt (coming off an injury), Jordan Rapp and Matt Hanson (backing up after Texas) – just to mention a few – you have a field that’s worthy of the race’s Regional Championship status.

Tim Don has just raced IM Brasil, he is unlikely to start in Cairns.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:18:13 08:34:04 00:48:59 04:24:35 02:59:39 51% +30% -19% (26) 26
2 3 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:20:57 08:31:48 00:49:09 04:35:44 02:51:04 72% +6% -22% (19) 21
3 4 David Dellow AUS 08:21:03 08:26:05 00:47:54 04:33:10 02:54:59 66% +2% -32% (13) 11
4 2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:22:34 08:28:48 00:51:30 04:35:13 02:50:51 64% +2% -34% (29) 16
5 23 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:23:31 08:42:29 00:46:47 04:41:00 02:50:44 43% +0% -57% (2) (53)
6 7 Jordan Rapp USA 08:27:20 08:28:09 00:53:00 04:29:35 02:59:44 72% +10% -18% (18) 15
7 6 Matt Hanson USA 08:30:17 08:39:22 00:54:38 04:42:01 02:48:38 29% +39% -31% (9) 45
8 8 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:31:48 08:39:27 00:46:24 04:30:30 03:09:55 13% +32% -54% (7) 46
9 19 Tim Don GBR 08:32:32 08:37:18 00:48:49 04:41:26 02:57:18 100% +0% -0% (2) (37)
10 9 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:35:34 08:53:54 00:48:18 04:38:08 03:04:08 5% +16% -79% (26) (77)
11 17 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:37:50 08:40:23 00:52:16 04:44:10 02:56:25 81% +4% -15% (10) 47
12 5 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:38:03 08:49:17 00:49:16 04:34:54 03:08:53 54% +24% -22% (26) 67
13 30 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:39:15 08:42:59 00:51:45 04:45:25 02:57:05 62% +0% -38% (14) 53
14 10 Luke Bell AUS 08:39:56 09:04:39 00:48:05 04:38:39 03:08:12 20% +4% -76% (27) (114)
15 13 Matt Burton AUS 08:40:35 09:07:24 00:53:34 04:34:56 03:07:04 31% +0% -69% (5) (125)
16 32 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:07 08:52:33 00:55:20 04:45:47 02:59:00 54% +0% -46% (7) 75
17 26 Casey Munro AUS 08:45:34 09:07:53 00:47:33 04:36:26 03:16:35 31% +0% -69% (5) (127)
18 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:47:38 09:03:11 00:51:03 04:45:55 03:05:40 67% +29% -5% (16) 105
19 22 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:49:07 08:55:35 00:51:04 04:48:41 03:04:23 58% +4% -37% (14) 83
20 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:50:36 08:55:59 00:55:00 04:37:30 03:13:06 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
21 20 Adam Gordon AUS 08:50:55 09:03:50 00:55:45 04:46:33 03:03:38 8% +78% -15% (4) 109
22 33 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:53:28 09:15:39 00:45:50 04:44:50 03:17:48 24% +0% -76% (6) (155)
23 14 Will Clarke GBR 09:00:15 09:15:03 00:50:58 04:43:58 03:20:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (154)
24 16 Guy Crawford NZL 09:01:43 09:13:32 00:49:42 04:39:35 03:27:26 27% +37% -36% (12) 147
25 18 Michael Davidson ZAF 09:06:51 09:13:33 00:57:31 04:54:43 03:09:38 54% +0% -46% (4) 148
26 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:10:16 09:29:12 00:56:35 04:52:11 03:16:30 43% +6% -51% (8) (181)
27 27 Samuel Murphy AUS 09:14:15 09:29:26 00:56:58 05:06:33 03:05:44 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (183)
28 24 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:09 09:31:50 00:54:18 04:59:43 03:21:08 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
29 25 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:38:29 10:00:38 01:04:05 04:55:36 03:33:48 43% +18% -39% (5) 240
30 31 Matt Randall NZL 09:52:19 10:00:14 01:01:13 04:57:47 03:48:20 55% +0% -45% (5) 239
21 Tim Green AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Ryan Palazzi AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Matthew Pellow AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Leigh Stabryla AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Cameron Wurf AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Here’s a look at the athletes that are in the running for a July Kona slot:

  • Tim Berkel is already safe, Pete Jacobs just needs to validate his Automatic Qualifier slot with a “competitive finish”.
  • Luke McKenzie has 3.005 points, he’ll be fine with a 9th place finish.
  • With Cameron Brown (2.240 points – unclear if he wants to race in Kona again), David Dellow (2.575) and Fredrik Croneborg (2.795 points) have a similar number of points and should be fine with 8th (1.070 points) or 7th place (1.335).
  • Romain Guillaume (1.470 points), Matt Hanson (1.700 points), Jordan Rapp (1.215), Clayton Fettell (1.570) and Adam Gordon (1.570) will need a Top 5 (2.090) or better to have a chance to qualify.

Female Race Participants

As usual the women’s field is a bit smaller than the men’s field, but it has a number of strong racers as is typical for a Regional Championship. Jodie Swallow is hopefully recovered from a broken elbow suffered during IM South Africa – as the strongest summer and biker in the field she should lead the race well into the run. But three-time champion Liz Blatchford will try to limit the distance and then take the lead on the run. Linsey Corbin has shown she has left her injury-plagued 2015 behind, nominally she is the strongest runner in the field and should end up close to Liz and Jodie. After her DNF in Texas Rebekah Keat is just looking forward to a good race, she will need a solid run to fight for a podium spot. Michelle Bremer and Sarah Crowley are looking to add some KPR points to get a July Kona slot.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 41 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:11:02 09:15:12 00:51:48 05:06:16 03:07:59 100% +0% -0% (9) 5
2 42 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:14:21 09:25:28 00:49:48 05:01:52 03:17:41 55% +0% -45% (10) (20)
3 43 Linsey Corbin USA 09:16:42 09:20:34 00:58:23 05:05:22 03:07:57 79% +21% -0% (18) (15)
4 45 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:23:08 09:25:16 00:54:03 05:08:19 03:15:46 85% +1% -14% (22) (20)
5 44 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:29:22 09:40:52 00:58:08 05:06:34 03:19:40 73% +20% -7% (11) 45
6 46 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:41:26 09:53:11 00:58:27 05:12:34 03:25:25 100% +0% -0% (2) (68)
7 50 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:41:48 09:57:44 01:00:35 05:22:54 03:13:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (79)
8 48 Melanie Burke NZL 09:42:16 09:52:40 01:05:15 05:09:39 03:22:21 78% +12% -9% (11) 66
9 51 Kym Coogan AUS 09:51:43 09:59:03 00:57:18 05:16:15 03:33:10 100% +0% -0% (3) 81
10 47 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:53:35 10:04:49 00:56:50 05:19:45 03:32:00 26% +7% -67% (26) 91
11 53 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:06:58 10:17:39 01:01:22 05:18:18 03:42:18 52% +11% -37% (10) 113
12 52 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:22:25 10:34:19 01:03:53 05:28:50 03:44:43 43% +21% -36% (7) 155
13 54 Tracy Morrison AUS 10:28:47 10:46:01 01:02:29 05:47:08 03:34:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (162)
14 49 Alison Fitch AUS 10:31:17 10:11:09 00:57:17 05:40:05 03:48:56 10% +0% -90% (8) 101

Here’s a look at the athletes that are in the running for a July Kona slot:

  • Liz Blatchford is already safe but requires a validation race.
  • Jodie Swallow (2.420 points), Linsey Corbin (2.190). Michelle Bremer (2.830) and Sarah Crowley (2.645) should be okay with a 5th place (2.090) or 4th place (2.455) in order to get to the projected cutoff of 4.500 points.
  • Kate Bevilaqua (1.695) and Melanie Burke (1.545) could qualify with at least a second place (3.400 points), the rest has to look for the Automatic Qualifier you get for winning the race.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Luke McKenzie: 33% (2-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 21% (4-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 19% (4-1)
  • David Dellow: 10% (9-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 7% (14-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 5% (21-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Liz Blatchford: 35% (2-1)
  • Jodie Swallow: 33% (2-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 20% (4-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 7% (13-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 5% (20-1)
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