Ironman Canada 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMCanadaUpdate July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13
2014 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:16:10 Bree Wee (USA) 09:46:58
2015 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:49:46 Danielle Mack (USA) 09:46:19

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:03 04:58:32 02:54:28 08:49:46
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:40 04:56:18 03:01:24 08:50:30
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:02 04:58:35 02:59:13 08:54:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:01:49 05:23:53 03:16:09 09:46:19
2 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:57:47 05:22:43 03:23:44 09:48:23
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:01 05:32:14 03:16:03 09:55:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:10 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Swim overall 00:48:22 Barrett Brandon 2015-07-26
Bike overall 04:31:34 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Run overall 02:40:34 Jeff Symonds 2014-07-27
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:53:09 Anna Cleaver 2014-07-27
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is – 03:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59 24 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59
2014 03:08 -00:04 -03:19 -00:21 15 of 17 02:17 -00:01 -01:59 01:19
2015 -15:22 -00:06 -14:14 -03:02 23 of 33 -03:36 -00:03 -06:04 -00:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It will be an MPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Andy Potts USA 08:25:41 08:22:46 00:46:43 04:42:27 02:51:31 100% +0% -0% (13) 8
2 9 Callum Millward NZL 08:33:00 08:26:16 00:48:15 04:46:39 02:53:07 74% +0% -26% (4) 17
3 7 Michael Weiss AUT 08:33:15 08:32:02 00:53:45 04:35:52 02:58:37 91% +9% -0% (14) 25
4 1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:35:14 08:33:02 00:50:44 04:49:21 02:50:08 80% +0% -20% (19) 29
5 6 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:41:28 08:37:34 00:50:18 04:36:47 03:09:23 78% +8% -14% (29) 50
6 2 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:42:50 08:52:03 00:52:43 04:44:58 03:00:09 41% +36% -23% (17) 96
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:43:16 09:00:17 00:49:47 04:44:44 03:03:46 41% +4% -56% (20) 127
8 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:37 08:50:23 00:52:35 04:50:17 02:57:44 56% +13% -31% (28) 90
9 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:45:56 08:40:43 00:51:54 04:52:24 02:56:39 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
10 14 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:43 08:50:54 00:48:23 04:51:44 03:04:36 51% +3% -46% (21) 93
11 28 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:54:27 08:55:08 00:53:24 04:48:45 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 103
12 10 Ben Collins USA 08:56:19 08:58:11 00:48:49 04:53:35 03:08:56 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
13 19 Derek Garcia USA 08:58:26 09:04:39 00:53:09 04:50:54 03:09:23 81% +7% -12% (10) 151
14 11 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:58:31 09:11:37 00:54:08 04:56:28 03:02:55 59% +40% -1% (8) 171
15 8 Swen Sundberg GER 09:02:41 08:59:02 00:52:45 04:54:07 03:10:49 55% +1% -44% (17) 121
16 16 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:47 09:03:29 00:54:28 04:49:49 03:17:29 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
17 12 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:07:02 09:13:36 00:53:10 05:00:01 03:08:50 22% +42% -37% (6) 181
18 29 Nathan Champness CAN 09:21:08 09:24:56 00:56:58 04:55:39 03:23:32 100% +0% -0% (2) (212)
19 27 Anthony Toth CAN 09:28:35 09:29:45 00:57:39 05:08:38 03:17:18 20% +11% -69% (17) 226
20 26 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:30:24 09:38:11 00:52:40 04:26:37 04:06:07 22% +4% -74% (9) 247
21 17 Scott Bradley USA 09:30:47 09:34:57 01:02:02 05:01:11 03:22:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (241)
22 20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:31:06 09:36:24 00:54:45 05:05:58 03:25:23 47% +53% -0% (2) (244)
23 24 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:32:26 09:37:12 00:54:35 05:16:01 03:16:50 45% +26% -29% (14) 244
24 22 Andrew Langfield USA 09:48:21 09:56:12 00:57:27 05:25:59 03:19:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
25 21 Elmar Heger GER 09:51:49 10:03:02 00:56:25 05:09:20 03:41:04 44% +23% -33% (6) 284
26 25 Matt Shanks USA 09:55:35 09:57:46 00:59:29 05:22:56 03:28:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (279)
27 18 Andrew Fast USA 10:28:50 10:38:34 00:58:13 05:22:42 04:02:55 19% +28% -52% (4) (297)
23 Jeff Manson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Andy Potts is the clear favorite, he has always been racing well in his summer Ironman races. Behind him it’s unclear who will race, some have already secured their Kona slots or are very close and may skip Whistler to prepare for Kona:

  • Andy Potts: 52% (1-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 9% (10-1)
  • Callum Millward: 7% (14-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Andy Potts still needs his validation race, while Michael Weiss (not shown) is already safe and unlikely to race.

KPR_Whistler

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