Ironman Coeur d’Alene 2015 (June 28th) – Predictions

IMCdALogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:23:29  (no female Pros)
2006 (no male Pros) Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:07
2007 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:33:32 (no female Pros)
2008 Tom Evans (CAN) 08:34:22 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:38:58
2009 Francisco Pontano (ARG) 08:32:12 Tyler Stewart (USA) 09:23:21
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:24:40 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:17:54
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:19:48 Julie Dibens (GBR) 09:16:40
2012 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:32:29 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:21:44
2013 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:17:31 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:16:02
2014 Andy Potts (USA) 08:25:44 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:34:32

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Andy Potts USA 00:47:57 04:42:35 02:51:53 08:25:44
2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:01 04:46:24 02:46:03 08:28:32
3 Ben Hoffman USA 00:53:05 04:48:58 02:43:59 08:29:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:59:14 05:22:19 03:09:10 09:34:32
2 Kelly Williamson USA 00:58:30 05:37:52 03:09:47 09:50:07
3 Jessica Smith USA 00:59:12 05:29:38 03:26:14 09:58:42

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:31 Ben Hoffman 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:45:23 Matthew Dixon 2003-06-29
Bike overall 04:29:09 Maik Twelsiek 2011-06-26
Run overall 02:42:07 Matt Hanson 2014-06-29
Total female 09:16:02 Heather Wurtele 2013-06-23
Swim female 00:48:08 Monica Byrn 2003-06-29
Bike female 04:52:18 Julie Dibens 2011-06-26
Run female 03:03:12 Caitlin Snow 2011-06-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Coeur d’Alene is 00:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Coeur d’Alene

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -04:43 -00:22 -01:29 -09:01 18 -04:43 -00:22 -01:29 -09:01
2007 -02:48 -04:06 -07:58 01:55 23 -03:45 -02:14 -04:43 -03:33
2008 -00:13 -03:18 -03:02 03:25 24 -02:35 -02:35 -04:10 -01:14
2009 04:38 -03:38 01:18 05:38 30 -00:46 -02:51 -02:48 00:29
2010 05:42 -02:18 01:55 03:54 29 00:31 -02:44 -01:51 01:10
2011 00:27 -02:51 01:31 02:28 18 00:31 -02:45 -01:18 01:23
2012 -03:42 -02:30 -04:42 03:35 18 -00:05 -02:43 -01:47 01:42
2013 03:44 -01:15 00:18 02:00 29 00:23 -02:32 -01:31 01:44
2014 04:56 -03:08 -02:27 06:45 15 00:54 -02:36 -01:37 02:18

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Coeur d’Alene is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Andy Potts USA 08:25:36 08:27:15 00:47:40 04:40:21 02:52:36 13
2 3 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:29:39 08:35:15 00:51:42 04:30:10 03:02:47 36
3 7 Callum Millward NZL 08:31:15 08:42:24 00:49:35 04:43:56 02:52:45 (56)
4 5 Paul Matthews AUS 08:33:39 08:32:46 00:48:41 04:41:24 02:58:34 27
5 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:41:55 08:41:56 00:53:13 04:46:51 02:56:51 53
6 4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:43:03 08:51:34 00:55:19 04:43:34 02:59:10 92
7 2 Matthew Russell USA 08:44:44 08:50:13 01:00:25 04:42:49 02:56:30 84
8 9 Barrett Brandon USA 08:45:29 09:02:18 00:51:27 04:51:04 02:57:59 (136)
9 21 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:46:04 08:59:54 00:55:16 04:43:13 03:02:35 126
10 10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:46:52 08:53:56 00:55:49 04:50:31 02:55:33 101
11 17 Patrick Evoe USA 08:53:27 08:55:30 00:58:42 04:47:51 03:01:54 111
12 13 Derek Garcia USA 09:01:51 09:14:14 00:55:16 04:47:50 03:13:45 191
13 8 Matt Lieto USA 09:03:51 09:04:44 00:54:16 04:54:19 03:10:16 147
14 6 Leon Griffin AUS 09:05:13 09:16:38 00:52:57 04:44:19 03:22:57 (196)
15 23 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:11:49 09:55:36 00:58:43 04:47:57 03:20:10 353
16 16 Jim Lubinski USA 09:13:53 09:34:14 01:03:19 05:02:41 03:02:53 272
17 22 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:15:01 09:24:15 01:06:07 05:03:39 03:00:15 237
18 24 Michael Starkey USA 09:15:05 09:27:11 01:02:19 04:58:28 03:09:17 (245)
19 14 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:18:03 09:30:36 00:58:36 05:08:01 03:06:26 257
20 19 Douglas MacLean USA 09:19:37 09:22:55 01:00:19 05:05:10 03:09:08 229
21 18 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:23:11 09:28:50 00:59:09 05:05:04 03:13:58 248
22 15 Dantley Young USA 09:51:08 09:58:31 01:09:03 05:18:18 03:18:47 361
23 25 Dan Brown PHI 10:00:46 10:15:42 01:05:23 05:19:59 03:30:24 (408)
24 20 Eric Reid USA 11:10:17 11:24:54 01:03:16 05:11:08 04:50:53 (469)
25 12 Andrew Fast USA 14:47:04 15:06:23 01:01:13 05:05:12 08:35:39 (472)
41 Terry Casey USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Andy Potts only has to finish an IM in order to be assured a Kona slot. Pedro Gomes (4.090 points) is already in a great position for a July slot, but already has three IMs in his score, so he has to finish fourth or better to improve. Make Twelsiek (3.790 points) is a few points back from Pedro, but has an empty points slot so will likely improve his score and secure a slot. After his recent 70.3 win in Boulder, Callum Millward (currently 3.225 points and an empty points slot) is also on track for a Kona slot, but needs at least a fifth place or better.

Behind these Matthew Russell (2.440, but already 3 IMs), Leon Griffin (2.300) Paul Matthews (1.900) would need to win to get in the mix for a Kona slot. Barrett Brandon (1.600), Trevor Delsaut (1.525) and Patrick Evoe (1.365) can improve their score and get close, but even a win probably won’t be enough for a slot.

Trevor Wurtele (2.125) also has a decent number of KPR points, but has already said he is not interested in racing Kona this year.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 31 Amanda Stevens USA 09:32:33 09:33:49 00:53:02 05:15:15 03:19:16 33
2 33 Heather Jackson USA 09:33:27 09:48:10 01:00:32 05:03:14 03:24:40 (55)
3 40 Katy Blakemore USA 09:35:27 09:41:12 00:54:39 05:19:53 03:15:55 45
4 50 Laura Siddall GBR 09:39:35 09:47:41 01:00:53 05:14:05 03:19:37 (54)
5 46 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:40:38 09:48:47 01:05:06 05:19:24 03:11:09 55
6 32 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:41:00 09:49:15 00:55:23 05:15:34 03:25:03 57
7 38 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:41:47 09:39:13 01:05:25 05:18:26 03:12:56 43
8 34 Amber Ferreira USA 09:45:41 09:49:40 00:58:13 05:21:41 03:20:47 60
9 47 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:47:08 09:51:52 01:02:00 05:19:51 03:20:17 65
10 42 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 09:55:11 10:02:04 01:04:34 05:20:18 03:25:19 (90)
11 39 Anne Basso FRA 10:04:38 10:34:12 01:00:28 05:29:36 03:29:35 151
12 49 Jen Annett CAN 10:06:17 10:14:51 01:08:34 05:22:18 03:30:25 (115)
13 44 Sarah Graves USA 10:07:52 10:15:07 01:14:59 05:28:17 03:19:37 (116)
14 43 Olesya Prystayko UKR 10:10:01 10:24:47 01:03:26 05:29:17 03:32:18 142
15 36 Sarah Jarvis USA 10:21:05 10:34:37 01:02:12 05:25:13 03:48:40 (152)
16 45 Amy Javens USA 10:24:13 10:25:15 01:09:11 05:30:16 03:39:46 143
17 35 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:34:00 10:38:56 01:07:41 05:42:40 03:38:38 155
37 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
48 Michelle Mighdoll USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

There are three athletes that are very close to a July Kona slot: Amanda Stevens (5.030 but already 3IMs), Dede Griesbauer (4.500) and Heather Jackson (3.800 but already 5 races in her total) are looking for the few remaining points to qualify in the first round.

Katy Blakemore (2.990) can get very close to the projected 5.100 points cutoff, while Kim Schwabenbauer (1.515) or Tamara Kozulina (1.915) are too far back for a slot even if they do well in Coeur d’Alene.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Andy Potts is the clear favorite to defend his title from last year. However, Mike Twelsiek and a number of other good cyclists will try to put the pressure on Andy:

  • Andy Potts: 51% (1-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 25% (3-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 9% (10-1)
  • Callum Millward: 3% (30-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 3% (30-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (40-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 2% (48-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (51-1)

Female Race Participants

After her recent good result in Brasil, Amanda Stevens is the statistical front runner. Dede Griesbauer, Amber Ferreira and Kim Schwabenbauer would love to add another IM win to her resume. Among others, Heather Jackson is steadily improving over the full IM distance, so I expect a close and exciting race for the podium spots:

  • Amanda Stevens: 28% (3-1)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 20% (4-1)
  • Katy Blakemore: 17% (5-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 14% (6-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 7% (13-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 7% (14-1)
  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 3% (29-1)
Comments are closed.

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close