Ironman Copenhagen 2016 (Aug 21st) – Predictions

IMCopenhagen

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33
2015 Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) 08:14:56 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 08:59:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:16 04:26:43 02:54:15 08:14:56
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:48:13 04:27:07 03:02:31 08:21:51
3 Andreas Niedrig GER 00:47:02 04:21:47 03:14:03 08:27:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:50:45 04:52:22 03:12:10 08:59:49
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:35 04:54:22 03:07:59 09:03:07
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:58:17 04:52:28 03:13:23 09:08:43

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:39 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:16:41 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 21:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:24 01:26 10:34 09:47 24 30:24 01:26 10:34 09:47
2011 24:27 02:52 11:18 06:34 28 27:26 02:09 10:56 08:11
2012 17:56 02:05 10:31 04:21 19 24:16 02:08 10:48 06:54
2013 26:28 00:51 15:25 07:19 30 24:49 01:49 11:57 07:00
2014 14:36 01:32 07:41 02:49 27 of 35 22:46 01:45 11:06 06:10
2015 14:09 00:57 14:41 03:14 26 of 30 21:20 01:37 11:42 05:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It is an MPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Andreas Raelert GER 07:59:12 08:17:58 00:47:07 04:23:06 02:43:59 48% +0% -52% (19) 4
2 10 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:06:49 08:38:00 00:47:24 04:24:59 02:49:26 9% +52% -39% (6) (49)
3 2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:10:25 08:34:19 00:49:11 04:29:33 02:46:41 54% +2% -44% (30) 38
4 3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:16:08 08:41:56 00:48:43 04:34:40 02:47:45 68% +0% -32% (15) 60
5 6 Will Clarke GBR 08:16:24 08:50:42 00:48:52 04:35:08 02:47:25 22% +40% -38% (3) (92)
6 4 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:17:31 08:43:17 00:46:10 04:27:01 02:59:20 27% +28% -46% (11) 65
7 9 Per Bittner GER 08:21:53 08:42:03 00:47:57 04:31:43 02:57:13 58% +15% -27% (18) 62
8 19 Horst Reichel GER 08:22:00 09:00:30 00:47:18 04:32:42 02:57:00 7% +20% -73% (15) (127)
9 40 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:22:42 09:21:50 00:46:06 04:40:18 02:51:19 1% +27% -71% (10) 195
10 13 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:22:47 08:55:54 00:51:10 04:31:18 02:55:18 35% +25% -40% (9) 106
11 8 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:22:48 08:48:52 00:45:54 04:38:27 02:53:28 38% +16% -46% (7) 86
12 39 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:24:57 08:57:29 00:47:05 04:35:27 02:57:25 56% +3% -42% (19) 115
13 41 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:25:31 08:45:33 00:47:12 04:33:07 03:00:13 57% +3% -40% (22) 78
14 25 Matic Modic SLO 08:31:12 09:00:19 00:52:30 04:38:32 02:55:10 36% +54% -10% (7) 126
15 26 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:32:13 09:04:54 00:54:58 04:30:02 03:02:13 36% +17% -47% (8) 145
16 5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:32:47 08:52:45 00:46:02 04:39:11 03:02:34 36% +27% -36% (15) 95
17 29 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:35:20 08:55:01 00:50:41 04:41:03 02:58:36 76% +6% -17% (13) 101
18 32 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:36:44 09:02:06 00:57:51 04:36:25 02:57:28 87% +10% -3% (57) 130
19 27 David Naesvik SWE 08:38:02 09:07:40 00:53:19 04:34:10 03:05:33 65% +0% -35% (14) 152
20 42 Mikolaj Luft POL 08:45:00 09:17:35 00:48:44 04:42:06 03:09:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (186)
21 15 Freddy Lampret ZAF 08:45:09 09:42:13 00:50:39 04:38:42 03:10:47 1% +30% -69% (9) 249
22 7 Antony Costes FRA 08:47:28 09:30:49 00:47:20 04:31:38 03:23:31 30% +0% -70% (3) (226)
23 31 Andreas Borch DEN 08:48:05 09:17:26 00:47:35 04:42:17 03:13:12 47% +13% -40% (6) (186)
24 36 Kasper Ougaard DEN 08:51:41 09:28:34 00:57:22 04:43:03 03:06:17 9% +36% -54% (6) 218
25 11 Michael Louys BEL 08:57:37 09:34:49 01:00:23 04:43:53 03:08:21 59% +9% -32% (10) 232
26 34 Sam Clark NZL 09:04:42 09:37:01 00:55:54 04:50:32 03:13:16 42% +0% -58% (2) (238)
27 17 Peter Kern GER 09:11:35 10:08:55 00:54:15 04:48:09 03:24:11 2% +0% -98% (8) (279)
28 16 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:11:39 09:49:11 00:50:31 04:55:23 03:20:45 21% +23% -55% (4) (259)
29 33 Rene Jensen DEN 09:12:37 09:46:55 00:53:07 04:56:26 03:18:04 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (257)
30 18 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:21:30 09:57:40 01:05:44 04:57:40 03:13:07 73% +12% -15% (8) 269
31 24 Lukas Polan CZE 09:23:59 10:09:44 01:00:48 04:58:51 03:19:20 21% +10% -69% (11) 280
32 28 Nis Lind DEN 09:31:27 10:06:50 00:58:06 04:55:41 03:32:40 80% +0% -20% (5) (277)
33 30 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:31:39 10:07:52 00:55:50 04:54:24 03:36:25 19% +9% -72% (11) 278
34 23 Jan Hron CZE 09:33:25 10:09:01 01:01:54 05:14:16 03:12:15 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (280)
35 22 Remmert Wielinga NED 09:49:19 10:52:28 01:10:07 04:52:56 03:41:16 7% +11% -82% (6) (297)
36 38 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:19:40 10:47:31 01:01:24 05:42:48 03:30:27 78% +0% -22% (4) 295
37 20 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:17:38 12:16:37 01:09:58 05:39:30 04:23:10 30% +23% -47% (36) 302
12 Rasmus Fitzner DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Markus Liebelt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Michael Smith Larsen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Robert Brundish GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Patrick Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Andreas Raelert has been struggling with a stress fracture and has only recently started running again, but he needs an IM finish to qualify for Kona. Patrik Nilsson has had some great late season results, last year he won his home race at IM Sweden in record-setting time.

  • Andreas Raelert: 45% (1-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 25% (3-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 16% (5-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 6% (15-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 2% (43-1)

KPR Situation

Here is a table with top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th, but before 70.3 Wiesbaden) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
1 Andreas Raelert GER 7200 1+0
9 Per Bittner GER 3620 2+3 (1280/75)
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 3610 3+1 (685/0)
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 3495 3+2 (720/135)
4 Igor Amorelli BRA 3320 2+3 (235/240)
7 Antony Costes FRA 3280 2+3 (85/750)
41 Mike Aigroz SUI 3200 3+2 (120/140)
2 Cameron Brown NZL 2865 1+2
40 Fabio Carvalho BRA 2460 1+3 (1670/135)
6 Will Clarke GBR 2310 1+1
39 Anton Blokhin UKR 1735 1+3 (1600/15)
32 Mike Schifferle SUI 1692 3+2 (405/7)

Per Bittner and Jens-Petersen Bach have already received July slots, at least Per is unlikely to race in Copenhagen. (Update: Jens has announced that he won’t be racing.) Andreas Raelert still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for an August slot.

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