Ironman Cozumel 2014 (Nov 30th) – Predictions

Update Nov 27th: The start list on Ironman.com has been updated:

  • Withdrawals by Thomas Gerlach, Chad Holderbaum, Christoper Sweet, Jim Lubinski, Diana Riesler & Karen Thibodeau
  • Late Additions by Marcel Bischof, Rene Vallant & Amy Javens

Previous Winners

Cozumel

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s swim was shortened, so the times were really quick and do not count for the course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:36:54 04:22:20 02:51:34 07:55:23
2 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:34:12 04:35:14 02:49:48 08:02:42
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:34:19 04:34:40 02:52:38 08:05:21

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:36:59 05:03:41 03:07:10 08:52:28
2 Jessie Donavan USA 00:44:46 05:00:35 03:12:02 09:01:12
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:34:17 05:06:18 03:21:47 09:06:40

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:07 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:39 Beth Gerdes 2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 10:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35 27 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35
2010 07:19 00:54 13:25 -04:58 30 08:12 03:53 07:42 -02:47
2011 15:07 01:40 12:41 02:14 40 10:30 03:09 09:21 -01:06
2012 09:45 -04:05 07:10 -00:08 55 10:19 01:20 08:48 -00:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 5 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:22:00 08:31:11 00:47:07 04:34:38 02:55:15 15
2 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:27:38 08:34:30 00:53:33 04:27:55 03:01:10 19
3 9 Bas Diederen NED 08:28:14 08:37:35 00:46:53 04:37:38 02:58:42 25
4 3 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:06 08:45:24 00:54:03 04:38:22 02:51:41 47
5 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:10 08:40:35 00:49:22 04:39:27 02:56:21 33
6 8 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:34:45 08:39:43 00:50:02 04:40:42 02:59:01 (30)
7 19 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:38:30 08:57:07 00:46:55 04:40:25 03:06:11 94
8 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:39:26 08:53:26 00:49:38 04:39:36 03:05:12 73
9 39 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:43:41 09:03:42 00:52:28 04:37:03 03:09:10 116
10 10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:45:35 09:01:48 00:53:11 04:46:11 03:01:12 111
11 14 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:44 09:08:02 00:53:03 04:45:41 03:02:01 139
12 16 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:46:13 09:07:15 00:44:42 04:31:17 03:25:15 (138)
13 4 Matthew Russell USA 08:46:18 08:56:25 00:57:58 04:39:54 03:03:26 92
14 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:04 09:06:22 00:47:42 04:47:40 03:11:42 132
15 24 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 08:52:27 09:16:07 00:46:12 04:42:33 03:18:42 170
16 18 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:52:32 09:13:49 00:46:14 04:47:29 03:13:50 (160)
17 35 Darby Thomas FIN 08:54:23 09:05:29 00:57:23 04:46:45 03:05:16 126
18 33 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:54:49 09:12:57 00:56:03 04:36:15 03:17:31 157
19 11 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:55:35 09:04:58 00:53:43 04:40:35 03:16:17 122
20 20 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 08:59:38 09:21:12 00:51:43 04:50:42 03:12:13 (195)
21 28 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:02:20 09:27:19 00:51:29 04:50:12 03:15:39 221
22 27 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:03:00 09:16:56 00:54:00 04:48:16 03:15:44 175
23 6 Matt Chrabot USA 09:03:12 09:24:55 00:47:54 04:45:08 03:25:10 (211)
24 41 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 09:09:36 09:31:34 00:53:50 04:55:14 03:15:31 (230)
25 25 Greg Close USA 09:13:09 09:35:16 00:56:55 04:56:37 03:14:37 (249)
26 37 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:14:26 09:48:39 00:52:19 04:53:30 03:23:38 305
27 40 Jim Lubinski USA 09:16:18 09:44:33 01:01:32 05:01:16 03:08:29 287
(28) 43 Rene Vallant AUT 09:16:27 09:38:18 00:54:00 04:42:44 03:34:43 (260)
(28) 42 Marcel Bischof GER 09:17:18 09:31:51 00:56:19 04:54:52 03:21:07 231
28 22 James Brown GBR 09:28:38 09:40:21 01:01:22 05:01:09 03:21:07 266
29 23 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:33:43 09:59:49 00:49:30 05:08:05 03:31:08 345
30 30 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:26 10:16:07 00:50:06 05:05:54 03:48:26 388
31 31 Jason Smith USA 10:39:13 11:04:46 00:56:14 05:20:46 04:17:13 (460)
32 38 Jason Watson USA 10:56:30 11:18:08 00:58:28 05:30:19 04:22:43 (462)
33 29 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:37:56 12:13:44 01:10:40 05:45:49 04:36:27 466
15 Francisco Serrano MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Rodrigo Acevedo COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Scott Bradley USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Oliver Gonzalez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Christopher Sweet USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Raul Tejada GTM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 52 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:21:47 09:31:32 00:50:59 05:02:12 03:23:36 17
2 57 Diana Riesler GER 09:23:57 09:41:33 00:57:31 04:57:32 03:23:54 35
3 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:25:52 09:37:37 00:52:20 05:21:26 03:07:07 29
4 54 Erika Csomor HUN 09:29:48 09:41:26 00:57:47 05:08:27 03:18:33 34
5 56 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:50 09:48:11 00:47:29 05:12:22 03:24:59 (52)
6 50 Jessie Donavan USA 09:32:10 09:44:01 01:06:02 05:00:41 03:20:27 42
7 61 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:34:25 09:57:22 01:01:27 05:18:26 03:09:31 (67)
8 55 Lucie Reed CZE 09:36:42 09:50:55 00:50:30 05:12:16 03:28:57 53
9 71 Jennie Hansen USA 09:37:05 09:45:55 01:02:58 05:13:52 03:15:15 47
10 58 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:39:33 09:56:12 00:58:53 05:16:46 03:18:54 62
11 75 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:43:44 09:58:47 00:58:54 05:13:25 03:26:26 72
12 62 Brooke Brown CAN 09:49:40 10:25:34 01:04:26 05:16:20 03:23:54 (120)
13 60 Anne Basso FRA 09:54:38 10:27:49 00:56:50 05:18:57 03:33:52 130
14 59 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:55:49 10:14:26 00:55:35 05:24:24 03:30:49 102
15 70 Christine Hammond USA 09:58:02 10:11:39 00:53:58 05:21:20 03:37:44 96
16 73 Tine Holst DEN 10:05:27 10:20:49 01:06:13 05:14:36 03:39:39 111
17 68 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:05:50 10:18:52 00:59:56 05:19:41 03:41:13 108
18 64 Jocelyn Cornman USA 10:08:32 10:32:51 00:59:46 05:33:37 03:30:08 (140)
19 79 Nicole Woysch GER 10:10:07 10:28:07 00:57:41 05:20:28 03:46:58 132
20 66 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:11:33 10:19:50 00:58:26 05:24:58 03:43:08 109
21 78 Kathryn Thomas USA 10:14:36 10:33:49 00:53:39 05:29:39 03:46:18 (141)
22 65 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:14:45 10:28:26 01:05:49 05:30:21 03:33:35 133
(23) 80 Amy Javens USA 10:17:26 10:35:51 01:05:16 05:22:16 03:44:53 (142)
23 72 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:18:12 10:36:32 01:00:16 05:42:06 03:30:50 (142)
24 77 Tami Ritchie USA 10:33:04 10:53:01 00:51:08 05:43:10 03:53:47 153
25 63 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:39:44 11:02:58 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:51:48 161
53 Nicola Spirig SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Shannon Florea USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
74 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Ruth Nivon Machoud MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

My top pick Clemente Alonso recently finished second at IM Arizona, so he may be a DNS. If he doesn’t start, there are (at least) four athletes that  could contend for the win without any clear favorite:

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 31% (2-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 14% (6-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 12% (8-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (40-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

There are three big contenders on the women’s side: Michelle Vestry, Diana Riesler and Kelly Williamson. All of them have been racing in the fall with different results: Michelle finished 14th in Kona, Diana won at IM Malaysia, and Kelly finished 19th in Kona. It will be a question of who has the best form on race day …

  • Michelle Vesterby: 31% (2-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 29% (2-1) Diana won’t be racing in Cozumel, she is on the start list for Western Australia
  • Kelly Williamson: 17% (5-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 7% (13-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 6% (17-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 5% (18-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 2% (55-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Olympic Champion Nicola Spirig who will do her first IM in Cozumel.

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