Ironman Cozumel 2015 (Nov 29th) – Predictions

CozumelLogoUpdate Nov 19th: Shortly after the start list was released, there were a few cancellations. So far Doug MacLean, Rachel Joyce, Melanie McQuaid and Molly Roohi confirmed that they won’t be racing. Since the original release on Tuesday, Ironman has updated the start list, also removing Ivan Rana.

Update Nov 26th: According to the latest version of the start list there are some more DNS: Amanda Stevens, Carrie Lester, and Tami Ritchie on the female side, and Gilbert Arangure, Scott Defilippis, Thomas Gerlach, Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena, Jonathan Rodriguez Barney, and Juan Carlos Zuniga on the male side.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28
2014 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:12:16 Nicola Spirig (SWI) 09:14:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:50:28 04:22:20 02:55:22 08:12:16
2 Matt Chrabot USA 00:44:27 04:44:28 02:57:02 08:29:50
3 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:44:25 04:44:43 02:56:41 08:30:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nicola Spirig SWI 00:47:12 05:15:03 03:06:19 09:14:07
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:49:08 05:11:02 03:13:08 09:17:30
3 Kelly Williamson USA 00:49:24 05:33:53 02:57:02 09:24:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:16 Michael Weiss 2014-11-30
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 02:57:02 Kelly Williamson 2014-11-30

The 2013 race had a shortened swim, therefore the times are not eligible for course records.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 06:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Based on the wind, conditions in Cozumel can change quite a lot, impacting both the swim (such as 2012) and the bike (such as 2014).

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40 27 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40
2010 07:36 00:56 13:27 -04:56 30 08:29 03:56 07:34 -02:48
2011 11:05 01:42 12:44 02:13 40 09:21 03:12 09:17 -01:08
2012 05:27 -04:03 07:10 -00:20 55 08:23 01:23 08:46 -00:56
2014 -02:31 03:18 -01:24 -00:06 31 06:12 01:46 06:44 -00:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:16:07 08:32:04 00:52:22 04:20:56 02:57:49 25
2 2 Ivan Rana ESP 08:17:52 08:24:55 00:46:23 04:36:33 02:49:56 11
3 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:19:59 08:27:45 00:47:10 04:29:23 02:58:26 14
4 35 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:20:53 08:33:03 00:47:36 04:31:44 02:56:33 27
5 19 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:27:35 08:33:55 00:50:33 04:40:05 02:51:57 29
6 4 Matt Hanson USA 08:28:21 08:47:41 00:52:32 04:42:11 02:48:38 73
7 41 Stefan Schmid GER 08:30:23 08:40:43 00:51:33 04:34:45 02:59:05 51
8 8 Justin Daerr USA 08:35:59 08:45:00 00:51:06 04:39:55 02:59:58 65
9 9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:00 08:54:20 00:51:38 04:41:08 02:58:14 104
10 5 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:37:05 08:46:48 00:52:01 04:37:03 03:03:02 71
11 11 Barrett Brandon USA 08:39:31 08:56:14 00:47:14 04:47:22 02:59:55 (115)
12 42 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:31 08:54:20 00:51:51 04:37:18 03:06:22 104
13 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:42:07 08:55:37 00:56:00 04:39:14 03:01:53 112
14 3 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:10 08:51:01 00:51:56 04:39:30 03:05:44 85
15 23 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:47:07 09:01:14 00:52:31 04:38:15 03:11:21 129
16 43 Raul Tejada GTM 08:50:25 09:10:05 00:51:45 04:45:50 03:07:49 (176)
17 33 Matic Modic SLO 08:50:33 09:04:30 00:53:31 04:44:45 03:07:17 147
18 18 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:50 09:11:33 00:54:39 04:52:33 02:58:39 181
19 30 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:12 09:00:53 00:47:08 04:47:58 03:12:06 128
20 38 Vincent Riess AUT 08:58:01 09:18:37 00:53:20 04:59:50 02:59:51 (217)
21 25 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:01:10 09:14:40 00:54:37 04:45:09 03:16:24 196
22 16 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:03:12 09:15:46 00:54:12 04:45:33 03:18:27 202
23 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:05:00 09:11:42 00:47:45 04:56:19 03:15:55 184
24 14 Greg Close USA 09:08:09 09:16:50 00:56:05 04:56:56 03:10:08 206
25 32 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:09:59 09:27:26 00:51:41 04:59:55 03:13:24 243
26 22 Raul Furtado BRA 09:10:03 09:30:16 00:52:00 04:44:14 03:28:49 257
27 31 Douglas MacLean USA 09:16:43 09:25:38 00:56:24 05:02:09 03:13:11 239
28 28 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:19:37 09:37:30 00:52:56 04:57:40 03:24:01 (292)
29 24 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:34:58 09:52:20 00:49:56 05:24:59 03:15:04 (341)
30 47 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:40:23 09:59:22 00:56:05 05:04:05 03:35:12 (364)
31 27 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:19 09:57:08 00:57:17 05:02:42 03:38:20 357
32 36 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:16 10:17:37 00:49:33 05:07:09 03:47:34 (420)
33 45 Richard Wygand BRA 10:09:27 10:34:23 01:04:01 05:16:08 03:44:18 (465)
34 17 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:22:44 10:42:38 00:51:16 05:10:37 04:15:51 (474)
35 15 Luca Cozza ITA 10:40:49 11:01:17 00:57:56 05:15:36 04:22:16 (482)
10 Gilbert Arangure USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Vinicius Canhedo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Eduardo Chong MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Jorge Luis Fuentes MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Luis Alejandro Lombana Pena COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Jason Reinhardt USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Jonathan Rodriguez Barney COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Juan Carlos Zuniga MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 56 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:00:35 09:06:50 00:50:15 04:57:16 03:08:04 2
2 55 Leanda Cave GBR 09:12:56 09:27:39 00:49:32 05:03:13 03:15:11 22
3 60 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:15:51 09:17:58 00:50:00 05:00:14 03:20:38 11
4 59 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:17:47 09:23:43 00:57:53 05:03:05 03:11:49 17
5 58 Carrie Lester AUS 09:20:44 09:31:25 00:52:42 05:05:03 03:18:00 26
6 62 Amanda Stevens USA 09:21:27 09:31:17 00:49:28 05:07:43 03:19:17 25
7 57 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:26:46 09:35:57 00:53:30 05:06:37 03:21:39 38
8 66 Danielle Mack USA 09:27:51 09:45:27 01:00:52 05:06:21 03:15:38 51
9 64 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:28:44 09:36:20 00:47:40 05:10:04 03:25:59 39
10 63 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:33:41 09:46:18 00:55:59 05:05:58 03:26:44 (55)
11 67 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:37:00 09:50:53 00:51:07 05:07:41 03:33:13 68
12 65 Emma Kate Lidbury GBR 09:38:33 09:57:02 00:52:44 05:14:11 03:26:37 (82)
13 86 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:43:46 09:53:09 00:52:31 05:21:32 03:24:44 73
14 78 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:49:29 10:03:08 00:55:07 05:27:00 03:22:22 91
15 81 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:51:22 10:10:20 00:56:54 05:18:35 03:30:53 108
16 74 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:54:12 10:07:48 01:02:42 05:21:39 03:24:51 (104)
17 70 Brooke Brown CAN 09:54:26 10:13:01 01:02:19 05:18:06 03:29:02 (116)
18 73 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:55:32 10:06:21 01:08:48 05:19:40 03:22:03 99
19 69 Anne Basso FRA 09:57:01 10:15:51 00:57:06 05:23:22 03:31:33 122
20 84 Maggie Rusch USA 10:05:15 10:18:49 00:59:52 05:22:24 03:37:58 130
21 82 Tami Ritchie USA 10:05:41 10:31:55 00:50:51 05:35:28 03:34:21 166
22 83 Molly Roohi USA 10:08:30 10:16:54 01:03:07 05:27:18 03:33:05 (126)
23 72 Caroline Gregory USA 10:08:49 10:29:11 00:54:09 05:38:07 03:31:34 161
24 76 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:08:49 10:40:54 01:02:43 05:08:16 03:52:49 (173)
25 71 Kate Bruck USA 10:13:22 10:23:49 01:02:01 05:36:42 03:29:40 145
26 75 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:16:48 10:24:55 00:59:12 05:47:58 03:24:39 151
27 85 Erin Spitler USA 10:28:44 10:33:50 01:03:57 05:21:40 03:58:07 168
28 68 Christine Avelar USA 10:35:32 10:55:50 00:53:26 05:32:58 04:04:09 (179)
29 80 Carla Moreno BRA 10:53:22 11:21:00 00:54:27 06:07:48 03:46:07 (183)
30 79 Maria Lopez USA 11:27:08 11:49:05 01:08:58 05:44:04 04:29:06 (183)
77 Jennifer Kryzanowski CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
87 Amanda Wendorff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cozumel doesn’t have a clear male favorite: Michael Weiss, Ivan Rana and Tyler Butterfield are very close in their abilities, but Ivan and Tyler have raced in Kona and may not be in the best position for a great race. (After placing 12th in Kona a third place in Cozumel should already take care of qualifying for Ivan, and Tyler only needs a validation race after his 5th place for a 2016 slot.) Patrik Nilsson declined his Kona slot to race (and win!) his home Ironman race in Sweden, he has had great results in fall 2014 with winning IM Malaysia and placing second in Western Australia. If Matt Hanson recovers in time from his Kona injuries when he crashed early in the bike, he will look to deliver a similar performance to his Texas win from earlier in the year. At least five strong contenders – next to impossible to predict who will end up on top even without taking other Ironman winners such as Alessandro Degasperi, Justin Daerr, Trevor Wurtele, Matt Russell or Chris McDonald into account.

  • Michael Weiss: 23% (3-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 22% (4-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 21% (4-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 15% (6-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 8% (11-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 6% (16-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

There is a clear statistical front-runner in the women’s race: Rachel Joyce is looking to validate her Kona slot after her great second place in Kona. But (Rachel Joyce has announced she won’t be racing, obviously that significantly changes the odds of the other athletes.) I would put Kona 2012 Champion Leanda Cave on a similar level to Rachel, especially considering that Leanda will be very motivated after her crash in Kona (and subsequent DNF) – and the last time they raced each other over the long distance at IM Texas earlier this year, Leanda finished ahead of Rachel. Carrie Lester has been in great shape this year (2nd in Roth, winning at IM Chattanooga), and a podium result in Cozumel would put her in a great position for Kona qualifying. Corinne Abraham (had to decline her Kona slot with an injury) and Camilla Pedersen (8th in Kona) are two more strong racers. Amanda Stevens has just raced IM Arizona, I don’t expect her to start in Cozumel as well. There are a number of other athletes to watch in the race: Heather Wurtele (can she finally break through with a good IM marathon?), Danielle Mack (winner of IM Boulder and IM Canada), Celine Schaerer (currently the best IM swimmer, looking for a good IM race after changing coaches), Dede Griesbauer (wants to have another shot at racing well in Kona) – a long list of athletes that will be competing for the ten money slots.

  • Rachel Joyce: 54% (1-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 19% (4-1) 40% (2-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1) 19% (4-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 7% (13-1) 13% (7-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (20-1) 11% (8-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 3% (32-1) 11% (8-1)
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