Ironman Cozumel (Nov 27th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28
2014 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:12:16 Nicola Spirig (SUI) 09:14:07
2015 Stefan Schmid (GER) 08:12:27 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 09:06:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Stefan Schmid GER 00:47:02 04:26:55 02:53:44 08:12:27
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:49:41 04:32:17 02:47:49 08:14:10
3 Michael Weiss AUT 00:49:40 04:29:41 03:00:13 08:24:24

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:53:49 05:01:15 03:07:38 09:06:40
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:47:21 05:05:22 03:16:17 09:13:29
3 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:48:50 05:06:25 03:14:14 09:14:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:16 Michael Weiss 2014-11-30
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:40 Corinne Abraham 2015-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 02:57:02 Kelly Williamson 2014-11-30

Rachel Joyce’s winning time of 8:52:28 from 2013 is faster than what I have listed as the course record (similarly for the male winner), but that year the swim was shortened and therefore the times are not comparable.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 05:50.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40 31 of 34 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40
2010 07:36 00:56 13:27 -04:56 35 of 42 08:29 03:56 07:34 -02:48
2011 11:05 01:42 12:44 02:13 46 09:21 03:12 09:17 -01:08
2012 05:27 -04:03 07:10 -00:20 61 08:23 01:23 08:46 -00:56
2014 -02:36 02:38 -01:01 00:42 39 of 53 06:11 01:38 06:48 -00:36
2015 04:06 04:28 03:43 01:25 34 of 49 05:50 02:06 06:17 -00:16

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 8 Chris Leiferman USA 08:16:38 08:32:09 00:49:24 04:37:11 02:45:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (29)
2 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:16:56 08:23:29 00:46:32 04:28:58 02:56:26 73% +13% -13% (21) 10
3 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:18:18 08:34:16 00:51:13 04:22:04 03:00:01 91% +7% -1% (16) 37
4 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:24:28 08:43:28 00:52:56 04:32:13 02:54:19 48% +33% -19% (40) 67
5 5 Tim Don GBR 08:24:57 08:32:43 00:46:06 04:36:38 02:57:12 64% +0% -36% (4) 32
6 25 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:58 08:29:23 00:48:54 04:40:37 02:51:28 88% +0% -12% (8) 24
7 11 Kevin Collington USA 08:26:08 08:44:28 00:46:40 04:38:14 02:56:14 59% +0% -41% (3) (75)
8 7 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:30:03 08:45:28 00:46:16 04:33:19 03:05:28 19% +33% -47% (13) 80
9 14 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:33:29 08:36:31 00:47:39 04:47:25 02:53:24 94% +6% -0% (14) 46
10 26 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:33:39 08:51:58 00:51:00 04:40:58 02:56:41 41% +8% -51% (24) 98
11 37 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:35:42 08:52:55 00:46:31 04:39:01 03:05:09 14% +61% -26% (8) 104
12 9 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:49 08:43:50 00:48:50 04:40:58 03:02:01 58% +22% -20% (12) 69
13 18 Barrett Brandon USA 08:38:22 08:54:21 00:45:23 04:43:21 03:04:38 55% +0% -45% (7) 106
14 15 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:40:02 08:52:32 00:47:22 04:44:17 03:03:23 62% +2% -35% (20) 100
15 13 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:41:15 08:56:27 00:46:03 04:43:14 03:06:59 33% +3% -64% (47) (115)
16 4 Chris McDonald AUS 08:44:06 08:46:50 00:51:32 04:41:30 03:06:04 72% +6% -23% (43) 84
17 33 Matic Modic * SLO 08:45:40 09:03:26 00:53:18 04:47:38 02:59:43 40% +35% -24% (9) 144
18 28 Thomas Gerlach * USA 08:47:28 09:01:16 00:52:15 04:39:04 03:11:08 39% +11% -51% (21) (136)
19 6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:49:53 08:54:57 00:55:58 04:42:48 03:06:08 81% +4% -15% (31) 109
20 24 Scott Defilippis USA 08:51:19 09:11:49 00:54:24 04:53:30 02:58:25 32% +29% -39% (22) (167)
21 21 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:51:50 09:04:01 00:49:32 04:38:56 03:18:22 39% +21% -40% (11) 147
22 31 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:49 09:00:26 00:47:45 04:51:49 03:08:14 87% +4% -9% (27) 131
23 12 Christopher Bagg USA 08:54:10 09:32:01 00:51:27 04:45:10 03:12:33 6% +27% -67% (13) (220)
24 41 Josep Vinolas ESP 08:57:54 09:08:57 00:54:25 04:49:20 03:09:09 15% +66% -19% (4) (161)
25 16 Raymond Botelho * USA 09:12:05 09:41:16 00:52:24 04:44:07 03:30:34 25% +28% -47% (15) (240)
26 27 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:23:29 09:46:54 00:54:55 05:06:02 03:17:32 32% +0% -68% (3) (254)
27 17 Scott Bradley USA 09:25:33 09:35:01 01:00:12 04:53:47 03:26:34 100% +0% -0% (3) 226
28 20 Emanuele Ciotti * ITA 09:29:41 09:37:36 00:51:01 04:55:35 03:38:04 43% +17% -40% (5) 231
29 36 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:49:51 10:08:55 00:55:30 05:03:10 03:46:11 24% +6% -70% (14) 274
30 40 Jorge Vazquez MEX 09:55:44 10:17:24 00:51:42 05:07:36 03:51:26 42% +0% -58% (3) (281)
31 38 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:57:05 10:19:51 00:50:10 05:07:36 03:54:19 47% +7% -46% (13) 282
32 19 Eduardo Chong MEX 10:02:53 10:24:49 00:58:35 05:18:53 03:40:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (286)
33 23 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 10:12:56 10:26:29 00:59:09 05:18:27 03:50:21 43% +0% -57% (7) 286
34 22 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:19:40 10:55:06 00:50:42 05:09:35 04:14:23 23% +0% -77% (3) (293)
30 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
32 Bruno Matheus BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Jarrod Shoemaker USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Derek Yorek USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Corinne Abraham * GBR 09:10:09 09:21:26 00:56:19 04:59:22 03:09:28 83% +17% -0% (9) 11
2 54 Michelle Vesterby * DEN 09:11:40 09:21:53 00:49:44 05:01:26 03:15:30 79% +3% -18% (19) 12
3 53 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:11:53 09:32:29 00:56:22 04:55:31 03:15:00 25% +44% -31% (5) (30)
4 52 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:15:36 09:19:29 00:50:08 05:02:55 03:17:33 86% +5% -9% (8) 8
5 55 Amanda Stevens * USA 09:25:28 09:34:44 00:49:21 05:09:54 03:21:14 44% +15% -41% (19) 34
6 58 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:27:53 09:39:07 00:47:46 05:10:35 03:24:32 81% +0% -19% (6) 40
7 62 Amber Ferreira USA 09:45:22 09:50:23 00:54:56 05:14:51 03:30:35 51% +18% -31% (16) 59
8 63 Kelly Fillnow USA 09:46:49 10:05:06 01:01:20 05:19:19 03:21:10 57% +43% -0% (10) 86
9 61 Lauren Capone USA 09:49:18 10:07:42 00:54:49 05:40:42 03:08:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (90)
10 72 Amanda Wendorff USA 09:56:47 10:15:26 00:55:15 05:14:49 03:41:43 59% +0% -41% (2) (102)
11 69 Caroline St-Pierre CAN 09:59:07 10:12:10 00:54:56 05:38:16 03:20:55 100% +0% -0% (2) (98)
12 65 April Gellatly USA 10:00:49 10:22:32 00:54:49 05:23:28 03:37:33 27% +14% -59% (15) 114
13 64 Annett Finger GER 10:10:54 10:23:20 01:00:45 05:24:14 03:40:55 18% +0% -82% (3) (115)
14 66 Amy Javens * USA 10:14:22 10:23:31 01:04:22 05:21:19 03:43:40 100% +0% -0% (5) 116
15 68 Molly Roohi USA 10:15:00 10:21:59 01:01:37 05:31:04 03:37:19 100% +0% -0% (5) 111
16 60 Neilia Bliss USA 10:21:00 10:30:44 01:01:01 05:35:13 03:39:47 100% +0% -0% (3) 128
17 70 Nicole Valentine USA 10:28:27 10:48:05 01:02:09 05:55:17 03:26:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (140)
18 73 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:45:44 10:56:55 01:10:43 05:39:34 03:50:26 72% +0% -28% (4) (142)
19 71 Amy Vantassel USA 10:50:01 11:10:20 01:08:16 05:55:03 03:41:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (147)
20 59 Palmira Alvarez MEX 10:58:38 11:12:29 01:12:31 05:43:31 03:57:35 100% +0% -0% (2) (147)
56 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Rachel McBride CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
67 Amelia McCracken USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 33% (2-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 19% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 17% (5-1)
  • Chris Leiferman: 11% (8-1)
  • Tim Don: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Corinne Abraham: 49% (1-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 26% (3-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 14% (6-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 8% (11-1)
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