Ironman Fortaleza 2014 (Nov 9th) – Predictions

Fortaleza

This is the first race on this course. Therefore, there are no previous results and course ratings. The expected times are based on a „neutral“ course, but usually courses are quite a bit faster (my guess is in the area of 10 to 15 minutes).

Updates

There are a few updates to the published start list that the athletes have announced:

  • Brandon Marsh has ended his 2014 season.
  • Tim O’Donnell will probably start in Arizona.
  • Mirinda Carfrae has announced she will not start in Fortalezza this year.
  • Leanda Cave has ended her season with a severe cold.

(Nov 8th) After registration, a few more athletes won’t be starting:

  • Vanessa Gianini
  • Hillary Biscay
  • Igor Amorelli
  • Camilla Lindholm (still on the list, but won’t be starting after placing 2nd in Florida)

There are also two additions:

  • Bib #46 – Daniel Fontana (ITA) – expected at 8:46:37
  • Bib #47 – Antonio Marcos de Souza (BRA)

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Fortaleza has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:27:43 08:28:12 00:48:40 04:38:42 02:55:21 10
2 22 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:39:09 08:48:33 00:47:43 04:44:19 03:02:07 52
3 30 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:49:06 08:45:08 00:48:23 04:48:27 03:07:16 46
4 34 Brandon Marsh USA 08:49:59 08:51:28 00:48:04 04:51:00 03:05:55 62
5 36 Stefan Schmid GER 08:53:49 08:50:30 00:54:07 04:51:31 03:03:11 56
6 27 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:04:43 09:10:09 00:48:40 04:53:50 03:17:13 143
7 35 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:47 09:01:04 00:56:18 04:56:59 03:06:31 107
8 40 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 09:05:18 09:08:11 00:50:05 05:03:55 03:06:17 136
9 24 Andres Castillo COL 09:10:40 09:15:58 00:48:00 04:55:13 03:22:28 170
10 25 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:11:21 09:14:01 00:54:28 04:58:59 03:12:53 159
11 39 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:11:56 09:29:05 00:48:24 04:55:22 03:23:09 (224)
12 32 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:13:35 09:14:34 00:50:02 05:13:43 03:04:50 163
13 38 Frank Silvestrin BRA 09:15:46 09:21:43 00:50:19 05:06:54 03:13:32 197
14 29 Raul Furtado BRA 09:16:22 09:32:45 00:53:20 04:53:11 03:24:51 238
15 31 Blake Becker USA 09:17:28 09:36:49 00:53:38 05:02:56 03:15:55 258
16 26 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:18:32 09:20:16 00:47:47 05:07:56 03:17:50 190
17 45 Ciro Violin BRA 09:18:32 09:27:33 00:52:00 05:03:34 03:17:59 (222)
18 44 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:21:10 09:23:24 00:48:54 05:13:44 03:13:32 (206)
19 28 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:24:00 09:40:31 00:53:48 05:05:32 03:19:41 (272)
20 23 Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos BRA 09:28:10 09:39:35 00:52:26 05:16:13 03:14:30 (270)
21 37 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:32:53 09:35:37 01:03:11 04:59:39 03:25:02 (252)
22 33 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:36:29 09:43:32 00:50:05 05:15:50 03:25:34 287
21 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Ivan Risti ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:07:11 09:07:03 00:55:32 05:10:02 02:56:38 1
2 11 Leanda Cave GBR 09:27:37 09:28:12 00:51:06 05:13:03 03:18:27 14
3 13 Erika Csomor HUN 09:40:56 09:35:43 00:59:20 05:18:34 03:18:02 26
4 9 Jessie Donavan USA 09:43:52 09:41:25 01:07:35 05:11:27 03:19:50 33
5 3 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 09:45:32 09:52:14 00:56:20 05:18:41 03:25:31 (55)
6 6 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:54:18 10:01:40 01:02:41 05:30:57 03:15:40 80
7 8 Haley Chura USA 09:54:47 09:50:58 00:50:11 05:29:40 03:29:56 51
8 7 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 10:01:55 10:14:00 00:53:42 05:23:09 03:40:04 (101)
9 14 Camilla Lindholm SWE 10:02:04 10:04:35 01:10:25 05:23:02 03:23:37 83
10 4 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:14 10:20:44 01:01:25 05:17:30 03:39:19 111
11 2 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:12:13 10:22:41 00:57:01 05:21:01 03:49:11 115
12 10 Hillary Biscay USA 10:12:58 10:12:19 00:53:24 05:35:42 03:38:51 98
13 5 Caroline Gregory USA 10:20:12 10:32:06 00:59:06 05:50:13 03:25:52 139
14 12 Nicole Woysch GER 10:28:24 10:28:08 00:59:27 05:34:09 03:49:48 134

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The clear favorite is Eneko Llanos who had a DNF in Kona and will be looking for some KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2015:

  • Eneko Llanos: 70% (1-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 15% (6-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 8% (11-1)
  • Balazs Csoke: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

Is she starts in Fortaleza, Leanda will be the pre-race favorite (but she is also on the list for Florida and might also consider Arizona):

  • Leanda Cave: 52% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 19% (4-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 13% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 8% (12-1)
  • Vanessa Gianinni: 5% (20-1)
  • Haley Chura: 2% (50-1)
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