Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Race Updates

Note: This post will be updated as the race progresses with my synopsis of the current situation and some preliminary analysis.

Preliminary Women’s Race Analysis (Race Time 9:50)

After the initial result analysis this year’s Kona race was relatively fast, an adjustment of -2:42 is the fastest since 2013 and about 2 minutes quicker than typical for Kona, mainly because the swim was fast. (This may change a bit when I include all race results that haven’t yet been when running this analysis.)

We’ve seen two course records: Daniela Ryf posted a new overall record (beating Rinny’s time from 2013), and Patrick Lange posted a new run course record (beating the old Mark Allen time form 1989).

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:50 04:52:26 02:56:51 08:46:46 -10:54 US$ 120000
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:56:44 05:10:54 02:58:20 09:10:30 03:23 US$ 60000
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:56 05:00:31 03:07:48 09:11:32 -09:53 US$ 40000
4 Anja Beranek GER 00:52:51 05:00:42 03:16:35 09:14:26 -07:51 US$ 22500
5 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:58:55 05:08:54 03:03:16 09:15:40 -03:54 US$ 19000
6 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:53 05:09:05 03:12:27 09:19:05 -06:54 US$ 16000
7 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:02:42 05:07:29 03:07:04 09:22:31 -11:56 US$ 14000
8 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:02:04 05:09:46 03:06:42 09:22:59 -11:12 US$ 12500
9 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:01:57 05:06:01 03:12:15 09:25:57 06:13 US$ 11000
10 Carrie Lester AUS 00:56:40 05:10:50 03:15:55 09:28:17 -00:32 US$ 10000
11 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:52:50 05:13:05 03:20:42 09:31:15 10:15
12 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:56:43 05:11:23 03:19:46 09:32:51 00:14
13 Linsey Corbin USA 01:01:52 05:11:50 03:14:31 09:33:51 11:34
14 Mary Beth Ellis USA 05:07:30 03:33:42 09:38:52 17:49
15 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:58:58 05:13:54 03:24:56 09:42:34 06:45
16 Lisa Roberts USA 01:05:04 05:25:50 03:06:35 09:43:11 07:53
17 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:01:49 05:15:21 03:21:25 09:44:03 -04:27
18 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:58:22 05:22:22 03:18:28 09:44:36 14:01

Preliminary Men’s Race Analysis (Race Time 8:45)

Updated at Race Time 10:00

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:48:02 04:29:00 02:45:34 08:06:30 -03:12 US$ 120000
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:27 04:23:55 02:49:03 08:10:02 -06:48 US$ 60000
3 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 04:37:49 02:39:45 08:11:14 -13:47 US$ 40000
4 Ben Hoffman USA 00:48:55 04:28:06 02:51:45 08:13:00 -23:01 US$ 22500
5 Andi Boecherer GER 00:48:10 04:28:07 02:52:05 08:13:25 -15:12 US$ 19000
6 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:48:12 04:29:10 02:55:01 08:16:20 -20:34 US$ 16000
7 Boris Stein GER 00:54:10 04:23:04 02:55:19 08:16:56 -15:18 US$ 14000
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:53:58 04:32:37 02:48:44 08:20:30 -08:03 US$ 12500
9 Ivan Rana ESP 00:48:52 04:38:13 02:50:17 08:21:51 -06:04 US$ 11000
10 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:48:49 04:35:33 02:53:21 08:21:59 -05:11 US$ 10000
11 Andy Potts USA 00:48:02 04:35:46 02:56:56 08:25:35 -00:06
12 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:02 04:33:08 02:54:24 08:25:52 -21:42
13 David McNamee GBR 00:48:06 04:45:36 02:49:56 08:28:05 -00:43
14 Marko Albert EST 00:48:04 04:33:33 03:02:53 08:28:20 -08:48
15 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:55 04:35:02 02:55:47 08:29:11 -00:49
16 Jesse Thomas USA 00:52:30 04:34:13 02:57:28 08:29:40 05:12
17 David Plese SLO 00:52:33 04:31:05 03:02:59 08:32:05 -11:40
18 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:19 04:33:47 03:04:18 08:34:50 -00:16
19 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:57 04:48:11 02:53:14 08:35:27 03:56
20 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:50:46 04:48:25 02:53:13 08:36:58 05:14
21 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:48:59 04:37:41 03:05:02 08:37:26 03:09
22 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:54:13 04:33:22 03:04:41 08:38:00 -06:15
23 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:05 04:41:44 03:05:43 08:39:58 01:31
24 David Dellow AUS 00:48:58 04:38:36 03:08:16 08:40:24 12:26
25 Stefan Schmid GER 00:53:52 04:39:42 03:01:26 08:40:40 00:55
26 James Cunnama ZAF 00:48:52 04:38:33 03:10:24 08:42:03 05:27
27 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:56 04:30:48 03:18:18 08:42:25 16:56
28 Timo Bracht GER 00:50:06 04:48:40 03:00:45 08:43:37 16:51
29 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:56:41 04:26:35 03:17:01 08:44:49 10:56
30 Brent McMahon CAN 00:48:06 04:38:49 03:14:49 08:45:45 30:07
31 Christian Kramer GER 00:48:49 04:37:40 03:15:19 08:47:02 06:55
32 Michael Weiss AUT 00:54:03 04:25:51 03:24:21 08:49:54 20:16
33 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:54:07 04:46:34 03:08:30 08:54:16 00:15
34 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:57:02 04:52:20 03:01:59 08:56:08 13:06
35 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:48:56 04:27:55 03:36:26 08:57:35 20:45
36 Callum Millward NZL 00:52:30 04:53:24 03:15:43 09:06:35 37:34
37 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:34 04:35:03 03:35:13 09:07:49 36:25
38 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:53:36 04:38:40 03:32:59 09:09:30 21:56
39 Bertrand Billard FRA 00:52:22 04:53:00 03:27:47 09:18:43 24:02
40 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:00 05:00:47 03:31:25 09:24:18 32:11
41 Joe Skipper GBR 00:54:11 04:49:58 03:34:14 09:25:07 51:42
42 Will Clarke GBR 00:52:26 04:56:18 03:31:52 09:25:07 53:09

Women in T2 (Race Time 6:30)

Here are the fastest female bike times:

  1. Daniela Ryf (SUI) 4:52:26
  2. Heather Jackson (USA) 5:00:31
  3. Anja Beranek (GER) 5:00:42
  4. Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 5:05:21
  5. Lucy Gossage (GBR) 5:06:01
  6. Annabel Luxford (AUS) 5:06:46
  7. Sarah Piampiano (USA) 5:07:29
  8. Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 5:07:30
  9. Meredith Kessler (USA) 5:07:45
  10. Kaisa Lehtonen (FIN) 5:08:54
While a lot can (and will!) still happen, here are my Top 5 projections:
  1. Daniela Ryf
  2. Mirinda Carfrae +12 minutes
  3. Heather Jackson +16 minutes
  4. Mel Hauschildt + 20 minutes (but there have been reports she didn’t look well coming out of T2)
  5. Sarah Piampiano + 22 minutes
But behind the Top 3, things will be very close .. I have more than 10 athletes that are projected to be within four minutes behind Sarah! As usual most of the final ranking will depend on the final hour of racing – but Daniela seems to be able to defend her title in very convincing fashion!

Men in T2 (Race Time 5:50)

With the first men in T2, here are the ten fastest bike times:

  1. Boris Stein (GER) 4:23:04
  2. Sebastian Kienle (GER) 4:23:55
  3. Michael Weiss (AUT) 4:25:51
  4. Lionel Sanders (CAN) 4:26:35
  5. Luke McKenzie (AUS) 4:27:55
  6. Ben Hoffman (USA) 4:28:06
  7. Andi Boecherer (GER) 4:28:07
  8. Jan Frodeno (GER) 4:29:00
  9. Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 4:29:10
  10. Eneko Llanos (ESP) 4:30:48
With the race being so close in T2, it’s very hard to predict how the race will turn out .. but here are a few “guesses”:
  • Frodo has been the strongest runner in the field. Sebi won’t make it easy for him to win – but Frodo would have to be considered the “favorite” in their match-up.
  • Tim O’Donnell and Boris Stein are both strong runners, they would be my other main contenders for a podium finish.
  • There are other strong runners (Patrick Lange, Ivan Rana, or David McNamee) and even if they are likely a bit too far back for a podium finish, they will fight for a good spot in the Top 10. If Andy Potts is able to shake off his tumble going into T2, he’s also going to contend for another Kona Top 10.

Women’s Turn at Hawi (Race Time 4:00)

While there is a big front group on the men’s side, it’s no surprise that in the women’s race Daniela Ryf has managed to build a lead of about three minutes. It’s a surprise that German Anja Beranek has been able to stay with her, but she needs a good position in T2 as Daniela can run 20 minutes into Anja.

The first chase group consisting of Mary Beth Ellis, Meredith Kessler, Jodie Swallow, Michelle Vesterby and Annabel Luxford sitting about three minutes back. None of them have been running really well, it’s unlikely that they can close the gap to Daniela on the marathon.

Rinny is now about 9:30 back from Daniela – it was four minutes after the swim, so Dani’s lead could grow to around 14 minutes in T2 if things continue to develop in the same way. Some strong athletes are now riding in front of Rinny: Van Vlerken and Hauschildt are 8:30 behind Daniela, both have only lost 2:30 to Daniela on the bike and are steadily improving their position in the field.

Men’s Turn at Hawi (Race Time 3:30)

By now most of the slower swimmers but strong bike riders have made a lot of the deficit they had after the swim. There is a large group of 12 athletes at the front that is about to get shattered on the way back into T2.

Among these are

  • The Germans Jan Frodeno, Andi B√∂cherer, Sebastian Kienle and Boris Stein (especially Boris is in a much better position than last year when he finished 10th)
  • The Americans Tim O’Donnell, Andy Potts and Ben Hoffmann
  • Australians Luke McKenzie and Tim Berkel
  • Spaniard Eneko Llanos and Brasilian Igor Amorelli

The Austrian Michael Weiss (back to IM racing after serving a two-year doping penalty) is probably more focused on chasing the bike course record – his run is usually not strong enough for a Top 10 finish.

It’s probably more interesting to follow strong runner such as David McNamee (2:26 back), Bart Aernouts (2:54) or Lionel Sanders who has closed down the gap from 8 minutes after the swim to 3:01 at the turn. Brent McMahon is more than 6 minutes back after serving a penalty, last year’s second Andi Raelert has also had a penalty.

Women’s Swim (Race Time: 2:20)

Athletes that had better than expected swims (and by how much):

  • Laurel Wassner 2:43 faster
  • Tine Holst 1:33
  • Katja Konschak 1:27
  • Sarah Piampiano 1:24
  • Julia Gajer 1:11

Slower than expected were

  • Kaisa Lehtonen 2:58 slower
  • Linsey Corbin 2:52
  • Jodie Swallow 2:46
  • Daniela Saemmler 2:09
  • Susie Cheetham 1:40
  • Melissa Hauschildt 1:26
  • Meredith Kessler 1:18

Men’s Swim (Race Time: 2:00)

The swim analysis has taken some time as the tracker has taken some time to update with the swim data. The times have been faster than in previous years: The swim rating of the Kona course is -4:30, the preliminary adjustment comes in at only -1:28, so roughly 3 minutes faster than what is normal for Kona.

Some athletes that had great swim results (faster than expected):

  • Matt Russell 5:31 faster
  • James Cunnama 2:17
  • Rudi Wild 2:08
  • Ben Hoffman 1:34
  • Joe Skipper 1:29
  • Boris Stein 1:25
  • Jordan Rapp 1:08
  • Andi Raelert 0:50

Slower than expected were

  • Markus Thomschke 2:09 slower
  • Will Clarke 1:34
  • Per Bittner 1:25
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