Ironman Lake Placid 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMLakePlacidUpdate July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005  (no MPROs) Heather Fuhr (USA) 09:45:06
2006 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:38:18  (no WPROs)
2007  (no MPros) Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:40:20
2008 Francisco Pontano (ARG) 08:43:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:51:00
2009 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:36:37 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:29:36
2010 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:39:34 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:27:30
2011 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:25:15 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:19:03
2012 Andy Potts (USA) 08:25:07 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:47:39
2013 Andy Potts (USA) 08:43:29 Jennie Hansen (USA) 09:35:06
2014 Kyle Buckingham (ZAF) 08:38:43 Amber Ferreira (USA) 09:31:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:52:04 04:43:47 02:57:49 08:38:43
2 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:28 04:50:33 03:07:08 08:51:26
3 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:09 04:55:07 03:03:23 08:59:22

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:13 05:19:33 03:08:35 09:31:28
2 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:03:46 05:18:31 03:10:04 09:38:14
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:07:26 05:19:18 03:07:31 09:40:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:25:07 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Swim overall 00:45:01 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Bike overall 04:33:33 TJ Tollakson 2011-07-24
Run overall 02:48:20 Viktor Zyemtsev 2006-07-23
Total female 09:19:03 Heather Wurtele 2011-07-24
Swim female 00:50:48 Tereza Macel 2009-07-26
Bike female 05:07:44 Amy Marsh 2010-07-25
Run female 02:57:05 Caitlin Snow 2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 03:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -01:26 02:29 -08:54 03:46 21 -01:26 02:29 -08:54 03:46
2006 -17:02 00:31 -13:50 -06:43 29 -09:14 01:30 -11:22 -01:29
2007 -06:56 01:00 -11:44 -01:47 18 -08:28 01:20 -11:29 -01:35
2008 -00:13 00:25 -04:39 00:48 38 -06:24 01:06 -09:47 -00:59
2009 -02:22 00:01 -07:53 -00:56 39 -05:36 00:53 -09:24 -00:58
2010 02:59 -03:02 -03:17 01:43 44 -04:10 00:14 -08:23 -00:31
2011 00:33 -02:54 -03:46 03:02 24 -03:30 -00:13 -07:43 -00:01
2012 -03:45 00:40 -06:21 01:36 16 -03:31 -00:06 -07:33 00:11
2013 -02:42 00:12 -04:38 02:09 32 -03:26 -00:04 -07:14 00:24
2014 -04:18 -02:03 -03:57 03:35 24 of 29 -03:31 -00:16 -06:54 00:43

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid is a P-2000 race. It will be a WPRO race only and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Heather Jackson USA 09:26:29 09:24:12 00:58:49 05:13:30 03:09:10 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:35:09 09:30:50 00:53:19 05:36:38 03:00:12 77% +12% -11% (12) 29
3 4 Amber Ferreira USA 09:44:01 09:49:32 00:55:57 05:22:14 03:20:50 51% +25% -24% (14) 64
4 17 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:58:47 10:06:52 01:00:01 05:34:27 03:19:20 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (102)
5 15 Beth Shutt USA 10:02:20 09:57:28 01:00:39 05:31:52 03:24:50 68% +32% -0% (8) 86
6 5 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 10:15:39 10:41:13 00:55:03 05:55:42 03:19:54 25% +0% -75% (3) (167)
7 14 Molly Roohi USA 10:19:41 10:17:30 01:04:50 05:39:23 03:30:28 100% +0% -0% (4) (123)
8 12 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:20:46 10:46:59 01:03:03 05:39:42 03:33:01 20% +49% -31% (4) 168
9 8 Kate Bruck USA 10:24:28 10:23:40 01:03:49 05:49:26 03:26:12 100% +0% -0% (3) 141
10 7 Neilia Bliss USA 10:25:33 10:29:09 01:01:59 05:43:38 03:34:56 100% +0% -0% (2) (154)
11 11 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:30:58 10:29:01 01:02:03 05:43:03 03:40:52 100% +0% -0% (5) (154)
12 6 Christine Avelar USA 10:48:55 10:51:12 00:55:51 05:45:15 04:02:49 100% +0% -0% (2) (169)
13 9 Florence Chretien USA 11:35:20 11:46:06 00:58:54 06:04:29 04:26:56 65% +25% -10% (6) (173)
3 Alicia Kaye USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Erin Green USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
13 Jodie Robertson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Nicole Valentine USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Heather Jackson is the favorite – she’s following a similar race plan to last year when she qualified by winning IM Coeur d’Alene. All she needs this year is to finish. Kelly Williamson is unlikely to race, she has been tending an issue that prevented her from racing well since IM Texas.

  • Heather Jackson: 38% (2-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 36% (2-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 18% (4-1)
  • Beth Shutt: 5% (19-1)

KPR Situation

In addition to Heather, there are only two other athletes who are looking for a Kona slot: Alicia Kaye who is practically safe but wants to gain some more IM experience and Jodie Robertson who wants to show that her second place at IM Texas wasn’t a fluke.

 KPR_LP
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