Ironman Lake Placid 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	(no MPROs)		Heather Fuhr (USA)	09:45:06
2006	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:38:18	(no WPROs)
2007	(no MPros)		Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:40:20
2008	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:43:32	Caitlin Snow (USA)	09:51:00
2009	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:36:37	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:29:36
2010	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:39:34	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:27:30
2011	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:25:15	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:19:03
2012	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:07	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:47:39
2013	Andy Potts (USA)	08:43:29	Jennie Hansen (USA)	09:35:06
2014	Kyle Buckingham (ZAF)	08:38:43	Amber Ferreira (USA)	09:31:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:52:04	04:43:47	02:57:49	08:38:43
2	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:28	04:50:33	03:07:08	08:51:26
3	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:55:09	04:55:07	03:03:23	08:59:22

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Amber Ferreira	USA	00:57:13	05:19:33	03:08:35	09:31:28
2	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:46	05:18:31	03:10:04	09:38:14
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:07:26	05:19:18	03:07:31	09:40:04

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:07	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Swim	overall	00:45:01	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Bike	overall	04:33:33	TJ Tollakson	2011-07-24
Run	overall	02:48:20	Viktor Zyemtsev	2006-07-23
Total	female	09:19:03	Heather Wurtele	2011-07-24
Swim	female	00:50:48	Tereza Macel	2009-07-26
Bike	female	05:07:44	Amy Marsh	2010-07-25
Run	female	02:57:05	Caitlin Snow	2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 03:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46	21	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46
2006	-17:02	00:31	-13:50	-06:43	29	-09:14	01:30	-11:22	-01:29
2007	-06:56	01:00	-11:44	-01:47	18	-08:28	01:20	-11:29	-01:35
2008	-00:13	00:25	-04:39	00:48	38	-06:24	01:06	-09:47	-00:59
2009	-02:22	00:01	-07:53	-00:56	39	-05:36	00:53	-09:24	-00:58
2010	02:59	-03:02	-03:17	01:43	44	-04:10	00:14	-08:23	-00:31
2011	00:33	-02:54	-03:46	03:02	24	-03:30	-00:13	-07:43	-00:01
2012	-03:45	00:40	-06:21	01:36	16	-03:31	-00:06	-07:33	00:11
2013	-02:42	00:12	-04:38	02:09	32	-03:26	-00:04	-07:14	00:24
2014	-04:18	-02:03	-03:57	03:35	24 of 29	-03:31	-00:16	-06:54	00:43

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid is a P-2000 race. It will be a WPRO race only and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Heather Jackson	USA	09:26:29	09:24:12	00:58:49	05:13:30	03:09:10	19% +56% -25% (4)	20
2	2	Kelly Williamson	USA	09:35:09	09:30:50	00:53:19	05:36:38	03:00:12	77% +12% -11% (12)	29
3	4	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:44:01	09:49:32	00:55:57	05:22:14	03:20:50	51% +25% -24% (14)	64
4	17	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:58:47	10:06:52	01:00:01	05:34:27	03:19:20	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(102)
5	15	Beth Shutt	USA	10:02:20	09:57:28	01:00:39	05:31:52	03:24:50	68% +32% -0% (8)	86
6	5	Kaitlin Anelauskas	USA	10:15:39	10:41:13	00:55:03	05:55:42	03:19:54	25% +0% -75% (3)	(167)
7	14	Molly Roohi	USA	10:19:41	10:17:30	01:04:50	05:39:23	03:30:28	100% +0% -0% (4)	(123)
8	12	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:20:46	10:46:59	01:03:03	05:39:42	03:33:01	20% +49% -31% (4)	168
9	8	Kate Bruck	USA	10:24:28	10:23:40	01:03:49	05:49:26	03:26:12	100% +0% -0% (3)	141
10	7	Neilia Bliss	USA	10:25:33	10:29:09	01:01:59	05:43:38	03:34:56	100% +0% -0% (2)	(154)
11	11	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:30:58	10:29:01	01:02:03	05:43:03	03:40:52	100% +0% -0% (5)	(154)
12	6	Christine Avelar	USA	10:48:55	10:51:12	00:55:51	05:45:15	04:02:49	100% +0% -0% (2)	(169)
13	9	Florence Chretien	USA	11:35:20	11:46:06	00:58:54	06:04:29	04:26:56	65% +25% -10% (6)	(173)
	3	Alicia Kaye	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	10	Erin Green	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	13	Jodie Robertson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Nicole Valentine	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Heather Jackson is the favorite – she’s following a similar race plan to last year when she qualified by winning IM Coeur d’Alene. All she needs this year is to finish. Kelly Williamson is unlikely to race, she has been tending an issue that prevented her from racing well since IM Texas.

• Heather Jackson: 38% (2-1)
• Kelly Williamson: 36% (2-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 18% (4-1)
• Beth Shutt: 5% (19-1)

KPR Situation

In addition to Heather, there are only two other athletes who are looking for a Kona slot: Alicia Kaye who is practically safe but wants to gain some more IM experience and Jodie Robertson who wants to show that her second place at IM Texas wasn’t a fluke.