Ironman Lanzarote 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

May 10, 2014 by
Filed under: PreRace 

Have some fun predicting the Lanzarote podium at IM Predictions – and you may even win a nice prize!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:47:48 04:53:03 02:55:03 08:42:40
2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 00:47:55 05:04:03 02:54:20 08:52:08
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:42 05:06:34 02:58:58 09:04:09

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kristin Moeller GER 01:00:03 05:31:47 02:58:37 09:37:34
2 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:05:41 05:39:08 03:17:28 10:09:31
3 Saleta Castro ESP 00:54:46 05:55:26 03:16:37 10:14:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

Course Rating

Traditionally, Lanzarote is one of the slowest Ironman races with a Course Rating of – 11:14, mainly because of a hilly and windy bike course.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 -06:54 02:14 -22:36 01:38 26 -06:54 02:14 -22:36 01:38
2007 -11:54 -01:07 -10:01 -04:27 31 -09:24 00:33 -16:19 -01:25
2008 -13:01 00:44 -18:42 05:10 37 -10:36 00:37 -17:07 00:47
2009 -08:22 -00:10 -14:39 03:52 40 -10:03 00:25 -16:30 01:33
2010 -07:04 01:30 -09:59 00:27 32 -09:27 00:38 -15:12 01:20
2011 -08:08 02:20 -16:39 04:53 20 -09:14 00:55 -15:26 01:55
2012 -16:14 00:51 -17:46 04:05 16 -10:14 00:55 -15:46 02:14
2013 -18:18 00:20 -19:54 03:32 18 -11:14 00:50 -16:17 02:24

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 7 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:49:46 08:38:58 00:52:11 04:41:16 03:00:01 38
2 2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 08:53:33 08:42:40 00:48:35 04:51:02 02:55:35 51
3 14 Michael Goehner GER 08:55:41 08:44:46 00:53:08 04:42:21 03:01:57 56
4 3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:56:35 08:45:39 00:52:19 04:40:10 03:04:08 57
5 5 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:23 08:46:26 00:49:09 04:46:10 03:05:32 61
6 20 Herve Faure FRA 08:58:04 08:47:06 00:50:55 04:49:00 03:00:56 (64)
7 8 Scott Neyedli GBR 09:02:06 08:51:03 00:50:29 04:51:03 03:01:02 82
8 17 Markus Thomschke GER 09:04:19 08:53:13 00:53:46 04:44:11 03:08:26 97
9 41 Darby Thomas FIN 09:08:49 08:57:38 00:57:22 04:45:05 02:59:38 (115)
10 12 Sergio Marques POR 09:08:57 08:57:45 00:54:59 05:01:35 02:58:24 117
11 15 Joel Jameson GBR 09:09:15 08:58:03 00:56:32 04:56:04 02:57:27 120
12 6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:11:15 09:00:01 00:49:30 04:46:17 03:18:47 126
13 13 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 09:11:24 09:00:09 00:56:14 04:59:41 02:58:19 128
14 40 Christian Brader GER 09:11:35 09:00:20 00:56:24 04:52:43 03:07:12 130
15 38 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:13:04 09:01:47 00:48:28 04:57:01 03:10:53 141
16 60 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:13:48 09:02:30 00:55:48 04:57:21 03:03:27 142
17 42 Dominik Berger AUT 09:14:03 09:02:45 00:48:21 04:51:41 03:18:24 144
18 44 Flo Kriegl AUT 09:15:04 09:03:45 00:54:10 04:50:38 03:06:18 (146)
19 55 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:15:09 09:03:50 01:00:15 04:50:59 03:06:04 147
20 11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:18:02 09:06:39 00:52:43 04:51:49 03:14:13 160
21 18 Jens Kaiser GER 09:19:22 09:07:58 00:58:07 04:49:55 03:11:14 163
22 57 Roeland Smits NED 09:19:55 09:08:30 00:53:27 04:51:31 03:06:39 (167)
23 16 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 09:21:16 09:09:49 00:47:32 04:47:42 03:19:20 (171)
24 56 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:33:11 09:21:30 00:58:33 05:28:51 03:20:29 (209)
25 37 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:25 09:32:30 00:52:32 04:53:06 03:37:46 248
26 48 Jose Ortega Serran ESP 09:47:36 09:35:37 00:57:12 04:55:08 03:20:00 (260)
27 47 Jorge Rakos ARG 09:47:49 09:35:50 00:50:39 05:18:24 03:17:32 (262)
28 49 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:55:42 09:43:33 01:02:02 04:57:28 03:26:39 (290)
29 52 Martin Cain GBR 10:09:05 09:56:40 00:58:54 05:15:52 03:33:06 337
30 59 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 10:21:22 10:08:42 01:00:13 05:12:07 03:46:04 367
31 43 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 10:21:31 10:08:51 00:54:41 05:06:57 03:46:19 (369)
39 Christian Birngruber AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
58 Samuel Huerzeler SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
53 Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Rayco miguel Marrero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
54 Miguel Platero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Victor Rodriguez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
51 Marcus Hultgren SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Iván Álvarez Gómez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 9 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:38:48 09:27:00 00:57:31 05:07:36 03:10:37 13
2 10 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:41:43 09:29:51 01:03:11 05:13:05 03:07:46 (16)
3 21 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:45:48 09:33:51 01:01:35 05:06:46 03:17:14 22
4 31 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:47:54 09:35:55 01:01:57 05:18:26 03:11:43 (26)
5 1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:48:13 09:36:13 01:03:46 05:20:45 03:06:22 26
6 23 Susan Blatt GER 09:53:12 09:41:06 00:57:19 05:14:04 03:23:46 37
7 22 Regula Rohrbach SUI 10:02:19 09:50:02 00:56:59 05:07:18 03:35:11 61
8 25 Camilla Lindholm SWE 10:12:12 09:59:43 01:08:44 05:23:08 03:17:18 82
9 29 Beate Goertz GER 10:12:26 09:59:57 01:05:06 05:05:26 03:25:20 (83)
10 34 Karina Ottosen DEN 10:26:55 10:14:08 00:58:36 05:34:09 03:32:28 106
11 33 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:27:31 10:14:43 01:02:57 05:28:28 03:24:24 (110)
12 4 Saleta Castro ESP 10:31:31 10:18:38 00:56:23 05:29:26 03:44:38 115
13 26 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:33:19 10:20:24 01:02:32 05:31:10 03:35:42 117
14 28 Anne Basso FRA 10:37:00 10:24:01 00:59:14 05:37:22 03:45:17 125
15 30 Christine Waitz GER 10:43:54 10:30:46 01:03:25 05:41:20 03:39:49 (133)
16 24 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:46:36 10:33:25 01:02:12 05:36:51 03:35:22 (133)
32 Eleanor Haresign GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Alena Stevens SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Stefanie Adam BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
35 Line margareta Foss NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If he is back in form after his DNF in South Africa, Ronnie Schildknecht is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 60% (1-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (12-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart: 7% (14-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 5% (20-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 5% (21-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 3% (28-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 3% (30-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 2% (44-1)
  • Henrik Hyldelund: 2% (49-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, there are at least five athletes with a good chance to win the race. The statistics clearly favor Sonja and Kristin, but Lucy Gossage seems to be the athlete with the biggest momentum:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 34% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 31% (2-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 18% (5-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 12% (8-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 2% (56-1)

Comments

6 Comments on Ironman Lanzarote 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

  1. Isa on Tue, 13th May 2014 12:12 am
  2. Natascha is not racing… :-(

  3. Debbie Jones on Tue, 13th May 2014 11:54 pm
  4. Race number 104 debbie from belgium..sorry dont know her 2nd name but shes good…so watch out….fuelled by verdemar xx

  5. Thorsten on Wed, 14th May 2014 6:28 pm
  6. That would be Debbie Verstraeten, starting in F30-34. If she finishes well, I might have to visit VerdeMar restaurant, too

  7. Thorsten on Wed, 14th May 2014 6:29 pm
  8. We’ve got a few more DNS (thanks to race announcer Till Schenk for the info).

  9. Adrian on Fri, 16th May 2014 4:57 pm
  10. Any reason why Natascha won;t be racing? She needs the points if she still wants to qualify for Kona

  11. Thorsten on Fri, 16th May 2014 5:42 pm
  12. It seems she is still not 100% okay after being hit by a car. I hope she recovers in time to have a decent chance to qualify!

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