Ironman Lanzarote 2015 (May 23rd) – Predictions

IMLanzarote

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:47:31 04:56:07 02:57:55 08:47:39
2 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:49:58 05:13:53 02:48:12 08:58:06
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:47:51 05:02:55 03:03:35 09:00:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:37 05:31:38 03:07:20 09:41:40
2 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:28 05:27:07 03:14:24 09:44:59
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:56:23 05:42:53 03:06:10 09:51:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 12:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -03:59 02:16 -19:18 01:23 25 -03:59 02:16 -19:18 01:23
2007 -11:15 -01:06 -09:09 -04:34 31 -07:37 00:35 -14:14 -01:36
2008 -13:30 00:45 -18:45 04:59 37 -09:35 00:38 -15:44 00:36
2009 -09:00 -00:10 -14:27 03:47 40 -09:26 00:26 -15:25 01:24
2010 -07:03 01:31 -09:52 00:21 32 -08:57 00:39 -14:18 01:11
2011 -08:44 02:19 -16:36 04:49 20 -08:55 00:56 -14:41 01:47
2012 -18:10 00:50 -17:44 04:03 16 -10:14 00:55 -15:07 02:07
2013 -19:20 00:20 -19:52 03:26 18 -11:23 00:51 -15:43 02:17
2014 -24:00 00:47 -18:38 -01:35 30 -12:47 00:50 -16:02 01:51

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 4 Christian Kramer GER 08:42:37 08:33:30 00:46:44 04:56:33 02:54:20 28
2 1 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:46:32 08:42:53 00:48:01 05:04:58 02:48:32 55
3 3 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:47:41 08:45:11 00:48:24 04:47:40 03:06:37 62
4 11 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:49:35 08:47:44 00:50:29 04:57:30 02:56:36 (75)
5 2 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:51:42 08:48:10 00:48:08 04:59:26 02:59:08 78
6 16 Marc Duelsen GER 08:51:45 08:40:27 00:51:42 04:55:37 02:59:25 51
7 10 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:55:59 08:59:06 00:46:59 05:01:47 03:02:13 (127)
8 12 Joe Skipper GBR 08:56:05 08:47:31 00:52:45 05:04:23 02:53:58 74
9 13 Sergio Marques POR 09:00:28 09:02:01 00:53:10 05:08:18 02:54:01 140
10 48 Swen Sundberg GER 09:04:12 08:48:40 00:51:48 05:02:21 03:05:03 83
11 35 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:09:50 09:07:55 00:53:03 05:03:43 03:08:04 (164)
12 15 Guy Crawford NZL 09:15:31 09:08:03 00:47:48 05:00:25 03:22:17 164
13 36 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:15:55 09:07:42 00:53:26 05:15:33 03:01:55 163
14 31 Mark Oude Bennink NED 09:16:11 09:08:47 00:47:38 05:06:16 03:17:18 (171)
15 18 Dominik Berger AUT 09:17:18 09:02:38 00:47:49 05:07:01 03:17:28 144
16 23 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 09:17:46 09:15:50 00:53:13 05:09:20 03:10:13 (200)
17 49 Miguel Platero ESP 09:29:38 09:30:29 00:52:01 05:08:19 03:24:18 (258)
18 41 Craig Twigg GBR 09:35:17 09:46:51 00:52:15 05:04:34 03:33:28 320
19 46 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:35:42 09:31:11 00:55:59 05:15:36 03:19:07 (262)
20 45 James Brown GBR 09:36:54 09:31:23 01:00:07 05:18:43 03:13:04 263
21 34 Herve Banti MEX 09:39:20 09:48:55 00:51:32 05:24:07 03:18:41 (328)
22 32 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:41:08 09:32:04 01:00:35 05:14:59 03:20:34 267
23 37 Roman Deisenhofer GER 09:44:04 09:42:02 00:52:29 05:07:42 03:38:54 (309)
24 20 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:47:26 09:42:53 00:56:58 05:22:40 03:22:48 (310)
25 50 Ivan Kharin RUS 10:04:43 10:02:58 01:06:24 05:27:14 03:26:04 (378)
26 33 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:25:23 10:30:40 01:11:45 05:24:17 03:44:20 (456)
9 Will Clarke GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Rayco Marrero avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Guillaume Jeannin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Tom Angerer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Owen Cummins IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
47 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Diana Riesler GER 09:38:32 09:33:41 00:56:48 05:19:00 03:17:44 30
2 22 Michi Herlbauer AUT 09:38:40 09:36:39 00:53:44 05:28:24 03:11:32 (38)
3 19 Lisa Roberts USA 09:51:42 09:35:54 01:04:05 05:34:41 03:07:57 35
4 6 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:53:39 09:52:51 00:58:19 05:37:46 03:12:35 71
5 26 Verena Walter GER 10:00:49 09:58:44 00:57:56 05:30:49 03:27:04 (85)
6 14 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:04:11 10:20:47 00:54:43 05:36:48 03:27:40 (137)
7 28 Evi Neuscheler GER 10:04:33 09:54:16 01:02:07 05:30:40 03:26:45 75
8 5 Saleta Castro ESP 10:07:16 10:15:01 00:54:56 05:43:39 03:23:41 (117)
9 24 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 10:08:01 10:01:39 00:52:02 05:34:27 03:36:32 (91)
10 8 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:11:04 10:00:40 01:06:33 05:42:19 03:17:12 86
11 29 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:18:11 10:16:02 01:00:38 05:46:43 03:25:50 (120)
12 27 Nicole Woysch GER 10:32:22 10:22:34 00:57:23 05:46:57 03:43:02 142
13 7 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:35:52 10:28:18 01:03:09 05:57:39 03:30:05 152
14 25 Alena Stevens SVK 10:49:10 10:46:55 01:02:32 06:00:36 03:41:02 (165)
30 Anne Jensen DNK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
51 Corina Hengartner SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Christian Kramer has to be considered the favorite in this field, but the hard bike course could help strong bikers Konstantin Bachor build a big lead. Miguel Blanchard Tinto has finished second here last year and would love to be the next Spanish winner in Lanzarote after Eneko Llanos and Victor Del Corral.

  • Christian Kramer: 34% (2-1)
  • Konstantin Bachor: 21% (4-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 19% (4-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 8% (12-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 6% (15-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 5% (19-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (27-1)
From a KPR perspective a win or second place would be enough for Miquel (2.560 points), Christian (2.455) or Konstantin (2.240) to secure a Kona slot. Will Clarke (1.665 points) is racing his first IM and could shake up things.

Female Race Participants

Based on her previous results, Diana is the clear favorite, but Eimear and Lisa are also strong contenders for the win. Michi Herlbauer has only one IM in her resume, but that is a sub-9 in Austria. Kate Bevilaqua has struggled with a string of DNFs – hopefully she’ll be able to complete an Ironman again!

  • Diana Riesler: 50% (1-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 16% (5-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 14% (6-1)
  • Michi Herlbauer: 12% (7-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 4% (23-1)

Diana (4.090 points) is quite close to qualifying for Kona. For Amy Forshaw (2.180), Shiao Yu-Li (2.100), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear (2.000) even a win in Lanzarote won’t be enough to qualify.

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