Ironman Lanzarote 2016 (May 21st) – Predictions

IMLanza Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.

Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40
2015 Alessandro Degasperi (ITA) 08:56:49 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:56:03

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:51:10 05:12:12 02:47:15 08:56:49
2 Christian Kramer GER 00:48:20 05:05:51 02:59:14 08:59:30
3 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:52:04 05:10:48 02:54:13 09:04:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:55:40 05:37:11 03:16:20 09:56:03
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:53:21 05:58:16 03:15:05 10:13:49
3 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:58:47 05:59:25 03:25:52 10:31:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20 45 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20
2007 -12:01 -01:04 -09:17 -04:09 40 -09:36 00:39 -15:02 -01:24
2008 -13:09 00:47 -18:11 04:48 47 -10:47 00:41 -16:05 00:40
2009 -09:01 -00:08 -14:46 03:52 44 -10:20 00:29 -15:45 01:28
2010 -07:07 01:33 -09:39 00:08 34 -09:42 00:42 -14:32 01:12
2011 -08:23 02:22 -16:18 05:15 23 -09:29 00:59 -14:50 01:52
2012 -17:54 00:53 -17:29 04:32 22 -10:41 00:58 -15:12 02:15
2013 -19:06 00:22 -19:39 03:19 19 of 31 -11:44 00:53 -15:46 02:23
2014 -23:49 00:50 -18:18 -01:38 37 of 56 -13:04 00:53 -16:03 01:56
2015 -28:18 01:14 -31:00 00:13 29 of 44 -14:36 00:55 -17:32 01:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:21:26 08:07:22 00:45:38 04:44:00 02:46:47 71% +29% -0% (4) 1
2 3 Timo Bracht GER 08:35:27 08:22:49 00:48:12 04:52:21 02:49:54 79% +10% -10% (25) 8
3 5 Ivan Rana ESP 08:39:56 08:24:55 00:47:12 04:59:39 02:48:05 83% +10% -6% (9) 11
4 6 Jesse Thomas USA 08:43:12 08:39:40 00:49:51 04:53:16 02:55:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
5 7 David McNamee GBR 08:45:23 08:27:09 00:47:15 05:03:52 02:49:16 100% +0% -0% (3) 15
6 4 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:50:32 08:37:51 00:48:02 05:08:23 02:49:07 90% +10% -0% (11) 46
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:50:43 08:49:17 00:47:28 04:54:34 03:03:41 54% +24% -22% (26) 82
8 22 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:52:23 08:49:38 00:52:09 04:58:13 02:57:01 54% +39% -7% (8) 84
9 50 Marc Duelsen GER 08:54:23 08:46:17 00:51:37 04:58:12 02:59:35 60% +0% -40% (6) (75)
10 47 Johann Ackermann GER 08:55:25 08:53:25 00:48:13 04:57:14 03:04:58 36% +0% -64% (5) (98)
11 8 Stephen Bayliss GBR 09:00:56 08:51:07 00:46:58 05:05:00 03:03:58 40% +4% -56% (45) 88
12 35 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:01:58 08:53:11 00:51:48 05:02:42 03:02:28 89% +11% -0% (5) 96
13 9 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 09:05:47 08:54:53 00:53:13 05:10:15 02:57:19 45% +16% -39% (16) (102)
14 45 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:50 08:53:24 00:47:08 05:08:47 03:06:56 26% +32% -42% (14) 97
15 24 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:08:15 09:03:40 00:50:14 04:55:07 03:17:55 16% +40% -44% (8) 133
16 44 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:11:38 09:01:49 00:54:18 05:05:37 03:06:43 56% +20% -25% (10) 124
17 34 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 09:11:47 09:00:05 00:46:48 05:09:23 03:10:37 38% +19% -44% (5) 119
18 39 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:15:33 09:01:02 00:48:23 05:14:42 03:07:29 83% +5% -11% (25) 121
19 36 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 09:16:41 09:12:56 00:50:11 05:18:33 03:02:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)
20 48 Marcel Bischof GER 09:21:51 09:17:21 00:55:51 05:13:16 03:07:44 77% +23% -0% (12) 190
21 43 Harry Springall GBR 09:22:34 09:18:46 00:53:33 05:02:53 03:21:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (194)
22 49 Roman Deisenhofer GER 09:24:53 09:15:28 00:52:25 05:09:18 03:18:11 59% +41% -0% (3) 186
23 30 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:34 09:34:05 00:56:42 05:08:07 03:22:45 50% +48% -2% (13) (230)
24 21 Till Schramm GER 09:34:15 09:38:23 00:56:11 05:11:38 03:21:26 9% +14% -77% (5) 242
25 46 Craig Twigg GBR 09:40:05 09:53:38 00:51:57 05:05:19 03:37:49 3% +21% -76% (12) 263
26 23 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:43:23 09:35:12 00:56:58 05:24:10 03:17:15 64% +36% -0% (3) 234
27 32 Enric Gussinyer ESP 09:46:21 09:31:00 00:50:55 05:17:01 03:33:24 86% +0% -14% (6) 223
28 26 Michael Louys BEL 09:46:54 09:42:38 01:00:58 05:20:22 03:20:34 42% +19% -39% (6) 247
29 29 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 09:47:41 09:43:39 00:51:33 05:23:47 03:27:22 37% +63% -0% (2) (250)
30 41 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:02:59 10:05:22 00:56:53 05:29:07 03:31:59 12% +14% -74% (8) (275)
31 51 Armin Atzlinger AUT 10:08:16 10:04:10 00:53:53 05:38:17 03:31:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
32 52 Christopher Baird USA 11:52:35 11:47:47 01:03:06 06:54:19 03:50:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
33 38 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:04:20 12:16:25 01:11:17 06:12:24 04:35:39 32% +23% -45% (32) 301
25 Jim Thijs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Diego Van Looy BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Rob Bobbaers BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Rayco Marrero Avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 10 Diana Riesler GER 09:39:22 09:26:27 00:56:36 05:20:49 03:16:57 55% +17% -28% (17) 22
2 17 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 10:03:56 09:59:52 00:56:57 05:45:30 03:16:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (90)
3 14 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:04:03 10:08:28 00:56:59 05:35:55 03:26:09 21% +16% -63% (9) (105)
4 13 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 10:10:37 10:11:01 00:54:22 05:46:04 03:25:11 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
5 11 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:14:26 10:06:27 00:59:57 05:43:45 03:25:44 70% +0% -30% (4) 101
6 15 Tine Holst DEN 10:15:55 10:06:09 01:04:09 05:39:07 03:27:39 89% +11% -0% (10) 100
7 20 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:20:49 10:22:47 00:58:21 05:50:13 03:27:16 41% +0% -59% (4) (139)
8 18 Nicole Woysch GER 10:34:38 10:48:03 00:57:23 05:48:58 03:43:17 26% +4% -70% (20) (177)
9 19 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:35:03 10:29:50 01:00:55 05:56:47 03:32:21 54% +23% -23% (10) 160
10 12 Anne Jensen DEN 10:36:48 10:30:47 01:08:01 05:42:00 03:41:47 65% +0% -35% (3) 164
16 Lucy Charles GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.

  • Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
  • Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
  • David McNamee: 2% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.

  • Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
  • Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
  • Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
  • Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)

With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.

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