Ironman Malaysia 2015 (Nov 14th) – Predictions

IMMalaysiaLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:49:49 04:40:31 03:05:37 08:41:53
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:34 04:49:56 03:10:00 08:58:45
3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:56:05 04:47:03 03:26:21 09:15:00

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:11 04:58:44 03:23:11 09:26:38
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:28:43 03:29:23 10:00:13
3 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:04:11 05:25:17 03:26:33 10:02:03

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:21:10 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Swim female 00:50:45 Nina Kraft 2007-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:17:36 Nicole Leder 2007-02-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 19:30.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09 19 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 20 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:58:00 08:44:46 00:56:16 04:43:40 03:13:04 66
2 1 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:58:59 08:42:30 00:50:41 04:42:16 03:21:02 59
3 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:59:32 08:54:10 00:49:33 04:53:01 03:11:58 106
4 28 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 09:00:44 08:47:32 00:53:42 04:52:27 03:09:35 79
5 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 09:02:11 08:43:23 00:54:09 04:53:15 03:09:46 60
6 11 Mike Aigroz SUI 09:04:52 08:46:15 00:50:58 04:49:14 03:19:40 72
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 09:05:34 08:49:42 00:52:22 04:46:30 03:21:42 85
8 13 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:09:18 08:58:50 00:55:52 04:54:40 03:13:46 125
9 12 Christian Brader GER 09:14:30 08:54:12 00:59:27 04:56:58 03:13:05 107
10 29 Carl Read NZL 09:15:07 09:01:25 00:54:40 05:01:55 03:13:32 136
11 7 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:17:22 09:07:17 00:50:12 04:55:56 03:26:15 161
12 18 Todd Israel AUS 09:17:31 09:02:48 00:53:33 04:59:11 03:19:48 143
13 10 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:19:03 08:59:38 00:50:18 04:55:00 03:28:45 130
14 9 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:23:04 09:13:19 00:55:47 04:58:59 03:23:18 190
15 37 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:23:06 09:10:19 00:51:36 05:15:15 03:11:14 179
16 34 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:23:51 09:00:19 00:58:47 04:59:20 03:20:44 131
17 8 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:24:56 09:05:36 00:58:20 04:57:12 03:24:23 158
18 14 Guy Crawford NZL 09:25:23 09:09:40 00:51:03 04:48:26 03:40:54 174
19 31 Peter Seidel GER 09:28:53 09:23:33 00:56:31 04:48:35 03:38:47 (236)
20 4 Chris Legh AUS 09:33:03 09:11:47 00:58:25 04:59:55 03:29:43 (186)
21 27 Steven Osborne GBR 09:34:34 09:33:50 00:59:08 05:17:03 03:13:22 277
22 36 Brad Williams USA 09:35:09 09:26:16 00:59:33 05:02:22 03:28:14 (243)
23 6 Tohara Kaito JPN 09:35:50 09:26:05 00:56:44 05:17:16 03:16:50 242
24 32 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:48:04 09:58:58 00:58:18 04:56:08 03:48:37 363
25 22 Michael Louys BEL 09:48:11 09:31:46 01:04:44 05:05:22 03:33:06 265
26 21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:49:01 10:03:07 00:55:20 05:18:09 03:30:31 (373)
27 35 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:49:35 09:31:17 00:59:56 05:07:35 03:37:03 263
28 3 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:50:33 09:50:10 00:58:13 05:07:59 03:39:21 (334)
29 24 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:52:46 09:29:10 00:51:28 05:26:04 03:30:13 (250)
30 16 Vincent Depuiset FRA 10:10:13 09:53:24 01:11:59 05:17:07 03:36:07 348
31 26 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:29:44 10:32:28 01:01:55 05:09:40 04:13:09 (457)
32 25 Young Hwan Oh KOR 11:08:39 10:58:20 01:05:30 05:28:41 04:29:29 (474)
33 33 Josef Svoboda CZE 12:05:59 11:59:40 01:15:28 06:06:17 04:39:13 481
34 23 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:09:45 12:01:04 01:15:24 05:52:43 04:56:39 482
17 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Yvan Jarrige FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Daniil Sapunov UKR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Diana Riesler GER 09:38:43 09:38:25 00:59:51 05:03:49 03:30:03 41
2 52 Haley Chura USA 09:54:00 09:43:05 00:51:20 05:22:15 03:35:25 50
3 47 Kristin Moeller GER 09:55:58 09:33:36 01:06:36 05:26:34 03:17:47 31
4 42 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:57:59 09:38:56 01:04:34 05:10:00 03:38:25 43
5 65 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:59:08 09:36:55 01:00:17 05:21:15 03:32:36 38
6 43 Bree Wee USA 10:04:33 09:42:51 00:56:55 05:23:48 03:38:50 48
7 51 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:09:04 10:01:57 01:00:32 05:20:33 03:42:59 92
8 44 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:10:11 10:18:24 00:57:34 05:31:51 03:35:47 132
9 66 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:11:07 09:55:37 01:08:14 05:17:05 03:40:48 80
10 50 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:11:45 09:53:01 00:56:35 05:32:01 03:38:09 76
11 54 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:11:53 09:51:33 01:03:34 05:18:02 03:45:18 73
12 46 Sarah Crowley AUS 10:11:54 10:02:27 01:01:00 05:29:02 03:36:52 (94)
13 56 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:16:53 10:03:59 01:05:02 05:36:04 03:30:47 97
14 67 Kathrin Walther GER 10:17:40 10:10:08 01:03:09 05:20:49 03:48:42 111
15 62 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:19:08 09:58:38 01:03:53 05:27:43 03:42:32 85
16 49 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:22:26 10:07:33 01:07:32 05:31:51 03:38:02 (108)
17 45 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:22:27 10:00:13 00:58:35 05:29:26 03:49:27 89
18 57 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:24:14 10:06:50 01:14:26 05:29:20 03:35:28 106
19 59 Anna Halasz HUN 10:25:05 10:17:33 01:10:42 05:24:00 03:45:23 (129)
20 63 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:26:20 10:10:33 01:02:09 05:34:12 03:44:58 (112)
21 48 Saleta Castro ESP 10:29:57 10:16:10 00:59:02 05:35:49 03:50:06 127
22 53 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:30:29 10:15:21 01:04:14 05:36:40 03:44:35 125
23 58 Emma Graaf SWE 10:36:53 10:18:29 01:02:34 05:34:10 03:55:10 133
24 64 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:39:21 10:23:56 00:57:02 05:35:20 04:01:59 151
25 61 Angela Kuehnlein GER 11:00:29 10:50:15 01:06:20 05:42:25 04:06:44 (176)
26 60 Mami Ishii JPN 13:11:33 12:59:19 01:04:55 06:05:28 05:56:10 (181)
55 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race is pretty open on the male side: Krill Kotshegarov, Alberto Casadei, Frederik Croneborg and Romain Guillaume have very similar chances, and there a number of other athletes that aren’t expected to be too far off:

  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 25% (3-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 18% (5-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 16% (5-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 9% (11-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 3% (35-1)
  • Carl Read: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s winner Diana Riesler is the clear favorite for this year as well – provided she has recovered from her DNF in Kona. Haley Chura is still struggling with the injuries she suffered when hit by a car, she was a DNF in Kona and unlikely isn’t able to start in Malaysia. Then there are a number of athletes looking for KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2016: Kristin Möller and Bree Wee almost qualified in 2015, and Natascha Badmann took some time to recover from her injuries but has already returned to racing with a podium in Vichy.

  • Diana Riesler: 59% (1-1)
  • Haley Chura: 13% (7-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 8% (11-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (13-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 7% (14-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 3% (31-1)
  • Bree Wee: 2% (59-1)
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