Ironman Malaysia 2016 (Nov 12th) – Predictions

IMMalaysia Update Nov 6th: Based on the latest startlist there are a few withdrawals (most notably Tine Deckers).

Update Nov 9th: Ty Butterfield has stated on Twitter that he has ended his season and won’t be racing Malaysia.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38
2015 Mike Aigroz (SUI) 08:52:02 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:37:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:17 04:49:25 03:08:46 08:52:02
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:24 04:48:18 03:09:02 08:52:12
3 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:13 04:49:31 03:11:55 08:55:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:34 05:02:38 03:29:37 09:37:06
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:03:55 05:25:04 03:15:02 09:49:09
3 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:03:56 05:14:13 03:30:21 09:54:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:21:10 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Swim female 00:53:12 Maki Nishiuchi 2009-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:15:02 Gurutze Frades Larralde 2015-11-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 07:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -15:42 -01:19 01:52 -19:12 17 of 22 -15:42 -01:19 01:52 -19:12
2007 -07:36 -01:34 02:49 -08:12 30 of 37 -11:39 -01:26 02:20 -13:42
2008 -11:09 -03:26 00:54 -13:21 21 of 22 -11:29 -02:06 01:52 -13:35
2009 12:41 -01:43 15:34 -00:25 6 -05:27 -02:00 05:17 -10:18
2010 03:53 -02:32 12:40 -07:21 6 -03:35 -02:07 06:46 -09:42
2014 -17:22 -02:03 -01:03 -10:27 21 of 27 -05:53 -02:06 05:28 -09:50
2015 -19:13 -01:38 -00:11 -10:39 42 of 55 -07:47 -02:02 04:39 -09:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:41:03 08:40:45 00:50:52 04:32:37 03:12:34 47% +15% -38% (13) 61
2 1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:43:15 08:40:14 00:51:58 04:41:00 03:05:17 81% +4% -15% (10) 58
3 4 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:45:15 08:43:16 00:49:26 04:44:36 03:06:13 30% +34% -36% (8) 69
4 8 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:47:05 08:42:23 00:53:01 04:51:05 02:58:00 67% +0% -33% (5) 67
5 2 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:52:33 08:53:02 00:49:02 04:44:57 03:13:35 28% +32% -40% (17) 103
6 15 Mitch Dean AUS 08:54:27 09:00:07 00:50:19 04:43:35 03:15:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (130)
7 9 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:55:05 08:42:12 00:50:23 04:49:49 03:09:52 71% +0% -29% (12) 66
8 26 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:55:29 08:55:20 00:50:08 04:51:18 03:09:02 60% +40% -0% (3) 110
9 6 Kaito Tohara JPN 08:56:16 09:02:35 00:54:48 04:50:40 03:05:48 48% +40% -12% (8) 139
10 32 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:56:38 08:42:55 00:54:06 04:46:07 03:11:25 99% +0% -1% (14) 68
11 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:58:55 08:54:44 00:55:33 04:39:36 03:18:46 63% +10% -26% (14) 107
12 28 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:59:08 08:53:04 00:55:22 04:45:07 03:13:39 97% +3% -0% (8) 104
13 30 Darby Thomas FIN 09:03:04 08:57:51 01:01:10 04:44:21 03:12:33 59% +6% -35% (9) 122
14 10 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:07:46 09:12:06 00:49:32 04:47:38 03:25:36 47% +6% -48% (25) 169
15 11 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:07:52 09:01:44 00:55:04 04:45:19 03:22:30 65% +0% -35% (17) 136
16 31 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:08:00 09:04:21 00:50:53 05:01:33 03:10:34 88% +0% -12% (11) 150
17 5 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:08:38 09:13:24 00:55:53 04:43:38 03:24:07 70% +11% -18% (13) (175)
18 7 Antony Costes FRA 09:17:05 09:36:31 00:50:47 04:39:35 03:41:43 21% +0% -79% (4) (231)
19 17 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:20:14 09:13:54 00:56:54 04:49:47 03:28:33 46% +0% -54% (8) 177
20 18 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:21:02 09:24:23 00:54:53 04:51:47 03:29:22 17% +29% -54% (5) (205)
21 12 Henry Beck GER 09:25:25 09:45:10 00:51:46 04:44:36 03:44:04 37% +63% -0% (2) (253)
22 14 Andreas Borch DEN 09:25:50 09:19:10 00:50:59 04:52:17 03:37:34 81% +5% -15% (7) 192
23 24 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:33:47 09:35:29 01:05:53 05:03:16 03:19:38 16% +50% -33% (5) 230
24 19 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:34:54 09:29:17 01:08:36 05:02:39 03:18:39 42% +0% -58% (10) 218
25 22 Urs Mueller SUI 09:37:10 09:34:41 00:58:44 04:57:42 03:35:44 65% +0% -35% (3) (227)
26 20 David Jilek CZE 09:41:40 09:39:13 01:00:21 04:58:57 03:37:22 64% +21% -15% (7) 238
27 16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:43:03 09:39:34 01:01:29 04:54:56 03:41:38 70% +10% -20% (17) 239
28 25 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:47:09 09:50:27 00:52:50 04:55:02 03:54:18 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (259)
29 13 Petr Bednar CZE 10:56:21 11:00:02 01:09:15 05:19:41 04:22:25 53% +0% -47% (2) (296)
30 29 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:27:46 11:52:34 01:17:53 05:43:30 04:21:23 33% +26% -41% (14) 298
31 23 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:06 11:59:22 01:14:16 05:48:19 04:44:30 33% +27% -40% (38) 299
21 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 41 Diana Riesler GER 09:26:06 09:37:28 00:59:14 04:54:59 03:26:53 39% +12% -49% (19) 37
2 54 Laura Siddall GBR 09:34:57 09:37:30 00:59:28 05:01:16 03:29:14 32% +55% -12% (7) 39
3 43 Tine Deckers BEL 09:40:33 09:34:34 01:00:30 05:00:56 03:34:07 55% +6% -39% (20) 32
4 45 Mareen Hufe GER 09:44:59 09:35:18 01:03:20 05:02:57 03:33:42 84% +5% -11% (21) 34
5 50 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:00:43 09:55:47 01:00:14 05:26:42 03:28:47 100% +0% -0% (4) 70
6 46 Tine Holst DEN 10:01:35 09:54:28 01:06:20 05:15:10 03:35:05 77% +23% -0% (12) 68
7 44 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:02:39 09:57:44 01:08:06 05:18:58 03:30:36 56% +30% -14% (12) 74
8 42 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:21 10:10:13 00:56:09 05:24:14 03:37:58 42% +0% -58% (16) 96
9 47 Brooke Brown CAN 10:06:45 10:04:41 01:04:41 05:20:27 03:36:36 42% +0% -58% (9) 87
10 53 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:21:11 10:14:09 01:15:14 05:18:41 03:42:16 78% +0% -22% (6) 101
11 51 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:23:57 10:30:12 00:56:17 05:24:24 03:58:15 61% +0% -39% (13) (129)
12 48 Kate Bruck USA 10:36:48 10:34:27 01:06:11 05:40:46 03:44:51 60% +0% -40% (4) 136
13 49 Erin Green USA 10:47:41 10:51:19 01:06:06 05:44:50 03:51:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
52 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Both the male and female fields have an interesting mix of athletes that want to use their Kona fitness after have not being able to score too many points there (Butterfield, Wiltshire, Deckers, Holst) and athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona this season and want to start the 2017 qualifying cycle with a strong result (Croneborg, Nicholls, Riesler, Siddall). It’ll be two very interesting races in a demanding climate.

Male Race Participants

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 33% (2-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 20% (4-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 14% (6-1)
  • Daniil Sapunov: 12% (8-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 9% (10-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Diana Riesler: 45% (1-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 25% (3-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 13% (7-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 12% (7-1)
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