Ironman Melbourne 2014 (March 23rd) – Predictions

March 13, 2014 by
Filed under: PreRace 

Update (March 19th): There have been a few withdrawals (thanks to Asa Lundstrom and Tammy Barker for sending me updates): Most notably, Cam Brown and Natascha Badmann are not starting. Also, Matt Burgess, Tom Rodgers and Kym Jaenke are out. 

With IM Melbourne, the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014 Qualifying cycle is coming. The opportunity to win 4.000 KPR points has attracted a lot of athletes looking to get a good part of the points need to qualify.

I also have a couple of other interesting side-projects going on around IM Melbourne: Luke Dragstra and I have set up IM-Predicitions.com, where you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize. We also have the companion IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro field in IM Melbourne.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

If the times from last year’s race look a bit strange, that’s because the swim was shortened to about 1.7k because of rough conditions. The shortened swim also helped to “speed up“ the bike and run times.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:20:30 04:28:50 02:43:35 07:36:08
2 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:21:45 04:22:32 02:51:28 07:38:59
3 Craig Alexander AUS 00:20:33 04:29:03 02:46:44 07:39:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:28:23 04:42:09 02:56:50 08:10:56
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:27:09 04:55:01 03:00:46 08:26:40
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:24:34 04:53:17 03:09:23 08:31:22

Course Records

Because of the shortened swim, I discarded all 2013 results for course records, leaving only the first edition of the race from 2012. Even these times are a bit suspicious, at a minimum the run was a bit short.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:57:44 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Swim overall 00:47:13 Marko Albert 2012-03-24
Bike overall 04:24:43 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Run overall 02:38:46 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Total female 08:34:51 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Swim female 00:52:34 Rachel Joyce 2012-03-24
Bike female 04:35:29 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Run female 02:58:29 Mirinda Carfrae 2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 10:46. (As noted above, the course rating is based just on the 2012 results and may not be a good basis for the predicting the 2014 times.)

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 10:46 -01:21 10:45 03:50 41 10:46 -01:21 10:45 03:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$. It is the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014, attracting an interesting field.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 36 Paul Matthews AUS 08:12:15 08:22:15 00:46:30 04:38:36 02:50:41 (2)
2 2 Craig Alexander AUS 08:12:45 08:22:46 00:47:51 04:38:39 02:52:18 3
3 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:47 08:24:51 00:48:42 04:32:00 02:59:10 6
4 5 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:17 08:26:22 00:47:28 04:36:42 02:58:30 10
5 4 Cameron Brown NZL 08:18:30 08:28:38 00:49:23 04:41:18 02:53:36 12
6 6 David Dellow AUS 08:20:12 08:30:22 00:47:23 04:41:51 02:57:44 15
7 45 Michael Weiss AUT 08:20:16 08:30:26 00:54:52 04:30:19 02:58:48 (16)
8 3 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:28:47 08:39:08 00:47:21 04:37:35 03:09:48 42
9 21 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:30:49 08:41:12 00:48:49 04:42:14 03:05:12 47
10 10 Christian Kramer GER 08:32:48 08:43:13 00:47:45 04:45:22 03:02:52 52
11 23 Paul Amey GBR 08:35:31 08:46:00 00:50:21 04:49:19 03:01:49 59
12 32 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:36:46 08:47:16 00:48:08 04:45:25 03:08:17 (65)
13 8 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:36:47 08:47:17 00:50:19 04:52:30 02:58:49 66
14 9 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:39:19 08:49:52 00:47:30 04:47:25 03:07:48 77
15 22 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:40:22 08:50:57 00:48:33 04:41:53 03:16:16 81
16 44 Swen Sundberg GER 08:41:31 08:52:07 00:52:19 04:45:20 03:10:18 87
17 30 Philip Graves GBR 08:42:16 08:52:53 00:47:33 04:42:48 03:17:06 93
18 31 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:42:55 08:53:33 00:50:27 04:56:03 03:00:49 97
19 7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:44:24 08:55:04 00:47:24 04:45:56 03:15:10 102
20 33 Todd Israel AUS 08:45:27 08:56:08 00:49:55 04:53:32 03:08:52 106
21 39 Joshua Rix AUS 08:49:09 08:59:54 00:49:43 04:45:18 03:21:16 123
22 27 Guy Crawford NZL 08:49:42 09:00:28 00:48:47 04:45:04 03:24:56 130
23 42 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:52:18 09:03:07 00:51:37 04:43:16 03:20:12 (142)
24 34 Christian Kemp AUS 08:53:04 09:03:54 00:48:02 04:52:45 03:05:59 (145)
25 46 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:56:02 09:06:56 00:53:48 05:04:30 03:03:22 155
26 28 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:57:16 09:08:11 00:48:35 04:54:43 03:20:25 160
27 38 David Naesvik SWE 09:00:55 09:11:55 00:55:15 04:50:18 03:19:27 174
28 48 Paul Wisniewski POL 09:07:34 09:18:42 00:49:45 04:45:00 03:40:54 (195)
29 29 Adam Gordon NZL 09:07:59 09:19:07 00:52:32 04:56:07 03:11:50 (195)
30 26 Matt Burgess NZL 09:08:32 09:19:41 00:49:56 04:49:27 03:24:39 (196)
31 43 Benjamin Sanson FRA 09:13:46 09:25:01 00:47:01 06:12:23 03:41:03 (211)
32 47 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:27:42 09:39:14 00:47:34 04:51:08 03:54:34 262
33 25 Dan Brown PHI 09:40:20 09:52:08 unrated unrated unrated (311)
34 35 Arland Macasieb PHI 10:01:22 10:13:36 01:02:41 05:30:18 03:39:06 369
37 Casey Munro AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Tom Rodgers AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Peter Robertson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Courtney Atkinson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 11 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:01:28 09:12:28 00:51:46 04:59:39 03:14:44 176
2 12 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:11:36 09:22:49 00:51:41 05:10:42 03:14:49 202
3 14 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:16:51 09:28:10 01:00:58 05:03:44 03:15:17 224
4 13 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:20:03 09:31:26 00:53:27 05:15:35 03:17:14 235
5 20 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:29:17 09:40:51 01:02:21 05:17:23 03:16:51 268
6 18 Mareen Hufe GER 09:29:52 09:41:27 01:00:37 05:08:20 03:26:40 273
7 15 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:32:39 09:44:18 01:00:00 05:15:36 03:20:48 280
8 16 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:39:41 09:51:28 01:01:17 05:19:25 03:21:42 307
9 17 Stephanie Jones USA 09:41:50 09:53:40 01:05:44 05:19:59 03:20:42 316
10 49 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:21 09:57:15 00:56:08 05:21:33 03:33:58 327
11 19 Angela Naeth CAN 09:49:04 10:01:03 00:57:57 05:10:53 03:26:23 (344)
12 55 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:18 10:05:22 00:54:38 05:30:13 03:27:09 (353)
13 51 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:02:07 10:14:21 01:00:00 05:33:00 03:27:55 (373)
14 53 Tine Holst DEN 10:02:19 10:14:34 01:07:21 05:20:18 03:37:26 374
15 52 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:38:32 10:51:31 01:01:45 05:35:06 03:52:43 (411)
54 Kym Jaenke AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
50 Tracy Douglas AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes on the start list, all of them with some issue. Paul Matthews has the best rating, but his two results are from 2012 and he hasn’t finished an IM since then. Crowie is probably the biggest name, but he has already said goodbye to IM racing after Kona. Marino Vanhoenacker and Dirk Bockel ended their 2013 seasons with frustrating DNFs in Cozumel and Kona. Cameron Brown has just raced New Zealand.

  • Craig Alexander: 36% (2-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 19% (4-1)
  • Dirk Bockel: 14% (6-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 10% (9-1)
  • David Dellow: 6% (16-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 5% (17-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 5% (20-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Caroline Steffen: 61% (1-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 8% (12-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (22-1)

Who do you think is going to win?

At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your own picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize!

Interested in more information?

My friend Luke Dragstra and I also have a new podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in Ironman-distance races. The first episode is focused on IM Melbourne and has just been released!

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