Ironman Mont Tremblant 2015 (Aug 16th) – Predictions

IMMtLogoA number of these athletes are also on the start list for Timberman on the same day, so there’s going to be a number of changes to these lists.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56
2014 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:16:17 Sara Gross (CAN) 09:40:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:43 04:26:55 02:54:21 08:16:17
2 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:49:37 04:43:04 02:57:38 08:35:15
3 Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:38 04:34:38 03:08:59 08:38:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sara Gross CAN 00:58:42 05:28:14 03:07:33 09:40:26
2 Amber Ferreira USA 00:58:40 05:19:58 03:18:33 09:43:46
3 Beth Shutt USA 01:03:21 05:21:16 03:15:12 09:46:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:17 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:26:55 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Run overall 02:52:20 Stefan Schmid 2013-08-18
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:58:18 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Run female 03:03:45 Kim Schwabenbauer 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:08.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 09:41 -01:09 05:55 04:40 12 09:41 -01:09 05:55 04:40
2013 04:17 -00:35 03:13 04:09 32 06:59 -00:52 04:34 04:24
2014 07:25 -01:36 02:08 05:11 14 07:08 -01:07 03:46 04:40

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 3 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:12 08:31:06 00:52:51 04:26:52 02:54:30 21
2 1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:16 08:35:16 00:52:12 04:42:54 02:50:10 35
3 2 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:31:13 08:48:29 00:56:51 04:25:09 03:04:14 (85)
4 5 Justin Daerr USA 08:34:09 08:42:53 00:54:10 04:41:26 02:53:33 60
5 4 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:37:11 08:49:44 00:50:14 04:37:22 03:04:35 89
6 9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:39:56 08:47:14 00:54:16 04:46:35 02:54:05 77
7 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:40:43 08:51:08 00:58:40 04:40:50 02:56:12 94
8 24 Eric Limkemann USA 08:40:59 08:58:33 00:50:25 04:38:26 03:07:08 (124)
9 21 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:44:08 09:14:17 00:54:11 04:46:30 02:58:26 195
10 8 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:50:19 08:54:15 00:55:21 04:40:33 03:09:25 107
11 10 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:02 09:08:04 00:55:37 04:43:09 03:09:16 161
12 20 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:57:08 09:24:51 00:55:33 04:49:08 03:07:26 244
13 13 James Chesson USA 09:00:51 09:26:45 00:57:39 04:52:32 03:05:41 (249)
14 19 Nigel Gray CAN 09:04:51 09:15:46 00:55:42 04:48:04 03:16:05 (203)
15 25 Jim Lubinski USA 09:12:10 09:39:59 01:02:39 05:00:52 03:03:39 302
16 27 Brendan Naef CAN 09:13:06 09:35:03 00:58:56 05:00:36 03:08:34 284
17 28 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:15:18 09:30:36 00:57:32 05:06:03 03:06:43 260
18 26 Douglas MacLean USA 09:16:05 09:26:20 00:59:03 05:03:23 03:08:39 246
19 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:52:26 10:03:25 01:00:10 05:10:14 03:37:02 382
12 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Brian Fleischmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Jason Frank USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Pierre-Yves Gigou CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Dylan Gleeson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Adam Kosmicki USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Lionel Sanders and Viktor Zyemtsev have already secured their Kona slots in July. In addition to them, there is a number of athletes looking to qualify in August:

  • Paul Ambrose (3.095 but already 5 results – might be okay with a Top5, safe with a Top3 result)
  • Matthew Russell (2.540 but 5 results), Jordan Rapp (2.180), Trevor Delsaut (2.065) Justin Daerr (1.840) – they probably need to win for a slot

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 36 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:11:22 09:17:15 00:52:07 05:01:08 03:13:08 9
2 38 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:12:45 09:17:16 00:51:55 05:09:51 03:05:59 10
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:17:48 09:29:53 00:58:15 05:12:08 03:02:25 24
4 40 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:31 09:24:59 00:54:40 05:08:35 03:10:17 (20)
5 42 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:24:57 09:37:19 01:02:29 05:07:22 03:10:06 44
6 50 Carrie Lester AUS 09:24:59 09:34:13 00:55:49 05:08:13 03:15:58 34
7 54 Lisa Roberts USA 09:28:41 09:34:29 01:05:54 05:14:11 03:03:35 37
8 37 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:50 09:39:52 01:08:02 05:05:28 03:15:20 47
9 35 Sara Gross CAN 09:33:56 09:53:52 00:57:24 05:21:37 03:09:54 75
10 45 Amber Ferreira USA 09:38:55 09:49:34 00:57:27 05:17:00 03:19:29 66
11 58 Laura Siddall GBR 09:38:59 09:58:31 00:59:41 05:12:15 03:22:04 84
12 61 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:42:25 09:59:46 00:55:45 05:24:27 03:17:13 88
13 39 Jackie Hering USA 09:46:32 09:56:18 00:56:34 05:25:15 03:19:43 80
14 43 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:51:06 10:17:10 00:55:11 05:43:07 03:07:49 (129)
15 44 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:10 10:16:01 01:00:21 05:29:07 03:26:42 125
16 49 Heather Leiggi USA 10:03:08 10:18:55 01:01:29 05:29:40 03:26:59 132
17 46 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:06:05 10:19:16 01:01:56 05:24:12 03:34:58 135
18 55 Molly Roohi USA 10:07:17 10:16:44 01:06:20 05:29:26 03:26:31 127
19 47 Caroline Gregory USA 10:07:58 10:23:16 00:57:00 05:40:40 03:25:17 149
20 53 Tami Ritchie USA 10:10:28 10:35:04 00:53:41 05:40:50 03:30:58 165
21 56 Maggie Rusch USA 10:28:06 10:49:18 01:04:39 05:35:45 03:42:41 (174)
22 57 Robin Sandos USA 10:50:09 11:12:05 01:00:48 05:42:51 04:01:29 (181)
23 51 Caroline Martineau CAN 11:55:14 12:19:22 01:09:10 06:05:34 04:35:29 (183)
48 Carly Johann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Carrie McCoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
59 Caroline St-Pierre CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
60 Kathryn Thomas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles the top three seeded are already safe for a Kona slot. A few others might still make it in August with a good result, but each of them already has five results:

  • Sarah Piampiano (4.410 points, probably okay with a Top 5)
  • Jessie Donavan (2.945), Jackie Hering (2.500) – they probably need a win for a slot

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the previous results, Jordan Rapp is the clear favorite to win Mont Tremblant. He has taken a long time after his DNF in Texas to be in peak shape. Viktor has just won IM Canada in Whistler, he might be a DNF or at least a little tired. Paul Ambrose (DNF), Justin Daerr (3rd) and Matthew Russell (7th) were also racing in Canada:

  • Jordan Rapp: 50% (1-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 13% (7-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 2% (46-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (59-1)

Female Race Participants

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles there are three strong Kona contenders looking for their next Ironman win before racing in Kona. Carrie Lester is coming off a second place at Challenge Roth and Jessie Donavan was 6th in Canada. Sara Gross and Rebekah Keat are making a comeback after a long break from racing:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 31% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 11% (8-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1)
  • Sara Gross: 6% (16-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 5% (19-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 2% (63-1)
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