Ironman New Zealand 2016 (March 5th) – Predictions

Update Feb 29th: There have been a few changes to the latest startlist: Per Bittner, Johan Borg and Mackenzie Madison won’t be racing.
IMNZ

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:30:14
2007 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:26:33 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:20:02
2008 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:49 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:16:00
2009 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:18:05 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:18:26
2010 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:21:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:14:35
2011 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:31:07 Samantha Warriner (NZL) 09:28:24
2013 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:15:35 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:17:10
2014 Marko Albert (EST) 08:17:33 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:08:46
2015 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:22:13 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:05:45

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:02 04:37:39 02:49:08 08:22:13
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:47:04 04:41:08 02:55:51 08:28:53
3 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:26 04:53:27 02:54:24 08:38:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:49:36 05:04:29 03:07:18 09:05:45
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:25 05:16:55 03:11:13 09:26:11
3 Melanie Burke NZL 01:02:46 05:12:19 03:20:29 09:41:51

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:35 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Swim overall 00:44:26 Dylan McNeice 2015-03-07
Bike overall 04:35:06 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:05:45 Meredith Kessler 2015-03-07
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 05:09.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30 24 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30
2008 09:27 01:37 02:46 04:33 36 09:03 01:16 01:13 05:31
2009 08:06 -00:01 03:19 03:03 38 08:44 00:51 01:55 04:42
2010 06:18 01:04 04:33 03:28 22 08:07 00:54 02:34 04:23
2011 -02:24 00:31 00:28 -00:58 24 06:01 00:49 02:09 03:19
2013 00:41 00:44 04:11 01:23 24 05:08 00:49 02:29 03:00
2014 03:02 01:04 00:00 02:29 31 of 41 04:50 00:51 02:08 02:55
2015 07:25 01:11 04:04 05:10 22 of 27 05:09 00:53 02:23 03:12

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:03 08:35:34 00:49:51 04:39:23 02:49:50 33
2 9 Dougal Allan NZL 08:26:33 08:35:30 00:58:20 04:27:54 02:55:19 32
3 4 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:27:19 08:33:47 00:49:36 04:38:58 02:53:46 26
4 2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:29:35 08:34:44 00:46:52 04:41:53 02:55:50 29
5 7 Paul Matthews AUS 08:30:01 08:38:31 00:46:04 04:40:03 02:58:54 45
6 21 Callum Millward NZL 08:30:28 08:45:56 00:47:47 04:43:17 02:54:24 (69)
7 29 Joe Skipper GBR 08:32:45 08:41:33 00:53:12 04:37:33 02:56:59 54
8 5 Matt Hanson USA 08:33:21 08:43:16 00:53:17 04:46:54 02:48:09 59
9 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:34:27 08:50:43 00:44:51 04:38:18 03:06:17 (86)
10 6 Per Bittner GER 08:36:59 08:42:16 00:48:53 04:42:03 03:01:03 56
11 26 Matthew Russell USA 08:38:32 08:47:17 00:56:25 04:41:41 02:55:26 74
12 3 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:41:49 08:50:22 00:44:50 04:49:25 03:02:33 84
13 8 Alex Reithmeier AUS 08:44:01 08:58:17 00:50:06 04:45:48 03:03:07 (115)
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:50:51 09:04:36 00:53:47 04:41:29 03:10:34 145
15 30 Swen Sundberg GER 08:52:32 08:53:36 00:52:20 04:47:44 03:07:29 98
16 22 David Naesvik SWE 08:53:21 09:02:17 00:54:36 04:44:53 03:08:51 132
17 31 Tohara Kaito JPN 08:55:54 09:15:40 00:52:44 04:58:59 02:59:11 194
18 16 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:56:16 09:08:48 00:50:38 04:55:54 03:04:43 162
19 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:57:05 09:17:44 00:48:23 04:43:03 03:20:39 206
20 27 Chris Sanson NZL 08:59:02 09:12:38 00:56:00 04:54:56 03:03:06 180
21 20 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:05:01 09:11:20 00:55:03 04:52:39 03:12:19 174
22 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:06:44 09:29:12 00:55:30 04:56:33 03:09:40 244
23 15 Sam Clark NZL 09:11:20 09:27:50 00:56:40 05:00:24 03:09:15 (242)
24 19 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:13:59 09:19:11 01:04:37 05:01:41 03:02:40 210
25 32 Brad Williams USA 09:25:25 09:44:49 00:56:09 05:01:26 03:22:50 307
26 25 Matt Randall NZL 09:50:23 10:07:55 00:58:41 04:58:33 03:48:09 (389)
27 23 Young Hwan Oh KOR 10:39:31 11:05:14 01:01:59 05:24:08 04:08:24 (478)
28 14 Daniel Brown AUS 10:50:23 11:30:56 01:03:42 05:36:34 04:05:07 (483)
10 Antony Costes FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Mark Bowstead NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Michael Poole AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 40 Meredith Kessler USA 09:06:48 09:19:19 00:48:32 05:03:07 03:10:09 14
2 41 Gina Crawford NZL 09:16:48 09:35:11 00:51:15 05:11:16 03:09:17 37
3 47 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:17:24 09:18:22 00:57:54 05:07:08 03:07:22 12
4 46 Carrie Lester AUS 09:21:50 09:31:25 00:53:32 05:09:30 03:13:47 26
5 43 Amanda Stevens USA 09:25:12 09:31:17 00:50:34 05:13:43 03:15:55 25
6 54 Candice Hammond NZL 09:28:16 09:42:57 01:00:27 05:12:06 03:10:43 (49)
7 45 Mareen Hufe GER 09:30:26 09:36:30 00:59:44 05:04:32 03:21:10 39
8 62 Laura Siddall GBR 09:30:37 09:49:44 00:56:47 05:07:04 03:21:46 63
9 55 Jennie Hansen USA 09:36:33 09:45:53 01:03:08 05:19:01 03:09:24 (52)
10 44 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:38:56 09:47:26 00:57:11 05:15:41 03:21:04 57
11 57 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:41:07 10:02:39 00:53:23 05:11:51 03:30:53 (90)
12 48 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:10 09:49:27 00:57:50 05:18:16 03:20:04 61
13 42 Melanie Burke NZL 09:42:07 09:49:31 01:04:39 05:13:55 03:18:33 62
14 49 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:17 09:58:50 00:54:49 05:19:49 03:25:39 85
15 63 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:55:03 10:06:12 00:54:34 05:29:32 03:25:57 99
16 59 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:55:34 10:16:37 00:58:50 05:30:45 03:21:00 (121)
17 51 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:58:43 10:22:15 00:52:37 05:26:00 03:35:06 138
18 58 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:09:37 10:23:21 01:02:17 05:31:17 03:31:03 143
19 56 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:09:57 10:21:59 01:05:30 05:21:37 03:37:50 (136)
20 53 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:12:28 10:27:15 01:02:03 05:24:26 03:40:59 158
50 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Larisa Cochrane NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
60 Tracy Morrison AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Vanessa Murray NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If there is a favorite among the strong field, it has to be Cameron Brown who has won this race 11(!) times. It is hard to choose a second tier, based on the previous results my picks are Cyril Viennot (5th and 6th in Kona), Matt Hanson (winner of IM Texas but crashed in Kona) and Dougal Allen (recent winner of Challenge Wanaka). Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit in his last races and will be looking for a good start to 2016 racing. Even the athletes with comparatively small statistical odds are very good athletes: Matthew Russell (always with a strong run split), Joe Skipper and Dylan McNeice (looking for a good result after Wanaka), or Terenzo Bozzone (always about to break through over the IM distance).

  • Cameron Brown: 21% (4-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 19% (4-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 15% (5-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 15% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 9% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 5% (17-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 5% (21-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 3% (31-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

3-time defending Champion Meredith Kessler is the clear favorite on the female side, but with competition such as Carrie Lester (winner of Chattanooga), Gina Crawford (another athlete looking for redemption after a DNF in Wanaka) or Lucy Gossage (winner of IM UK and 10th in Kona) Meredith’s top spot is far from assured.

  • Meredith Kessler: 59% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 14% (6-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 10% (9-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 8% (11-1)

Lauren Brandon could be an interesting IM rookie, with her strong swim and bike she’ll be near the front at least until the early parts of the run.

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