Ironman South Africa 2016 (April 10th) – Predictions

IMSALogoUpdate April 4th: Victor Del CorralAndreas Niedrig and Corinne Abraham won’t be starting.

Update April 6th: Daniela Sämmler has announced she has been sick and won’t start. Stephen Bayliss is reported by Tri247 to focus on IM Lanzarote. Diana Riesler will be racing IM Lanzarote and a start in Port Elizabeth seems very unlikely.

Update April 7th: Another German, Katja Konschak, has reportedly had an accident and won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 09:26:56

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:20 04:32:45 02:49:45 08:16:35
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:28 04:48:22 02:48:44 08:30:45
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:52:07 04:44:30 02:55:04 08:35:59

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:50:17 05:20:58 03:10:56 09:26:56
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:35 05:20:12 03:06:04 09:31:20
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:52 05:25:54 03:03:38 09:33:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 01:04.

The course has changed a bit this year – the bike course stays closer to the coast which might make it windier but also a lot less hilly than in previous years. Race conditions in South Africa depend a lot on the weather conditions, but the course changes could lead to fast times this year.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35 28 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35
2007 -04:39 -09:34 01:28 -01:26 33 -03:02 -07:31 -01:21 -01:01
2008 17:34 00:30 08:46 02:17 36 03:50 -04:51 02:01 00:05
2009 15:12 01:24 08:39 -02:45 28 06:40 -03:17 03:41 -00:37
2010 07:58 -00:52 07:52 01:19 34 06:56 -02:48 04:31 -00:14
2011 12:20 -00:23 13:11 02:18 36 07:50 -02:24 05:58 00:11
2012 -12:35 -09:02 -09:35 02:23 28 04:55 -03:21 03:44 00:30
2013 06:23 -01:48 09:45 02:52 36 of 44 05:06 -03:09 04:29 00:48
2014 -15:12 -01:35 -12:29 -01:16 29 of 40 02:51 -02:59 02:36 00:34
2015 -14:53 -01:24 -11:40 00:29 49 of 61 01:04 -02:49 01:11 00:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona slots for the male and female winners.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:20:56 08:29:00 00:49:45 04:32:33 02:53:37 18
2 2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:20:59 08:30:44 00:53:51 04:31:45 02:50:23 20
3 4 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:36 08:36:07 00:52:16 04:34:48 02:52:32 35
4 19 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:27 08:34:11 00:51:36 04:36:46 02:56:05 32
5 14 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:30:30 08:39:04 00:50:56 04:33:55 03:00:38 49
6 7 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:31:23 08:38:02 00:51:29 04:40:50 02:54:04 45
7 3 Boris Stein GER 08:32:28 08:31:35 00:57:26 04:36:06 02:53:56 23
8 22 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:32:28 08:39:03 00:54:31 04:43:26 02:49:31 48
9 5 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:34:40 08:35:18 00:57:56 04:40:58 02:50:46 34
10 27 Christian Kramer GER 08:35:34 08:39:36 00:50:18 04:39:14 03:01:03 53
11 6 Ben Hoffman USA 08:35:46 08:36:22 00:51:10 04:36:14 03:03:22 38
12 45 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:31 08:45:57 00:54:42 04:38:02 03:00:47 71
13 9 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:38:38 08:44:36 00:50:20 04:41:39 03:01:39 63
14 44 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:39:41 08:48:52 00:50:21 04:37:23 03:06:57 79
15 38 David Plese SLO 08:40:03 08:39:27 00:54:53 04:42:21 02:57:49 52
16 10 Marko Albert EST 08:40:18 08:37:59 00:49:25 04:42:49 03:03:04 44
17 37 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:41:42 08:42:51 00:53:09 04:47:34 02:56:00 58
18 42 Darby Thomas FIN 08:43:50 08:51:14 01:01:15 04:41:33 02:56:02 87
19 35 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:44:23 08:55:41 00:50:41 04:44:47 03:03:54 110
20 12 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:23 08:51:07 00:49:59 04:46:07 03:04:18 86
21 17 Ben Collins USA 08:48:01 08:59:42 00:53:21 04:44:01 03:05:40 (124)
22 43 Markus Thomschke GER 08:51:06 08:59:10 00:55:40 04:38:09 03:12:17 119
23 11 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:28 09:09:06 00:55:19 04:48:20 03:05:48 165
24 34 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:55:19 09:04:45 00:50:05 04:38:23 03:21:51 145
25 20 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:55:51 09:02:06 00:58:03 04:53:31 02:59:16 (132)
26 28 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:01:57 09:31:35 00:54:31 04:47:26 03:15:00 255
27 26 Olivier Godart LUX 09:06:27 09:18:33 00:57:28 04:59:51 03:04:09 (210)
28 32 Tomas Mika CZE 09:06:42 09:09:53 00:57:39 05:02:44 03:01:19 170
29 29 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:09:10 09:11:20 00:58:27 04:51:57 03:13:47 175
30 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:10:14 09:17:13 00:51:34 05:00:15 03:13:25 201
31 16 Greg Close USA 09:10:22 09:16:50 01:01:16 04:57:45 03:06:21 197
32 31 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:15:16 09:27:26 00:55:46 05:03:42 03:10:48 235
33 41 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:50 09:27:36 00:51:26 04:54:56 03:30:28 238
34 24 Lewis Elliot USA 09:23:07 09:43:46 00:56:51 04:52:46 03:28:30 (302)
35 30 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:32:23 09:42:01 00:56:49 05:06:08 03:24:26 (295)
36 15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:33:18 09:43:24 00:54:49 05:06:52 03:26:37 (300)
37 21 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:41:47 09:49:28 00:56:58 05:07:51 03:31:59 (322)
38 46 Eric Watson AUS 09:51:56 10:05:02 00:52:48 05:10:17 03:43:51 (369)
39 47 Ruedi Wild SUI 10:41:58 11:02:44 00:52:36 04:52:12 04:52:10 (472)
40 13 Simon Brierley SEY 10:45:41 10:53:40 01:02:41 05:28:36 04:09:24 (471)
41 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:41:45 12:09:08 01:15:30 05:47:18 04:33:56 477
23 Thomas De Schutter BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 48 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:12:33 09:19:52 00:50:43 05:02:18 03:14:32 (15)
2 49 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:15:16 09:17:42 01:00:39 05:02:07 03:07:30 10
3 50 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:18:09 09:17:03 00:57:56 05:11:53 03:03:20 7
4 64 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:16 09:26:27 00:59:51 04:58:48 03:16:36 22
5 52 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:20:21 09:21:15 01:01:50 05:04:50 03:08:41 16
6 69 Amanda Stevens USA 09:26:15 09:30:05 00:53:44 05:11:50 03:15:41 26
7 53 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:26:24 09:27:37 00:54:14 05:03:48 03:23:21 (24)
8 61 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:27:39 09:40:13 00:56:21 05:14:11 03:12:07 (45)
9 62 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:48 09:32:47 01:03:14 05:08:23 03:15:11 32
10 65 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:32 09:46:19 00:55:03 05:16:27 03:20:02 (57)
11 66 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:37:24 09:40:07 00:58:09 05:12:25 03:21:50 44
12 57 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:52 09:56:48 00:55:12 05:11:49 03:30:51 81
13 68 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:47:55 09:54:52 00:59:49 05:25:59 03:17:08 74
14 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:53 09:59:46 00:55:18 05:29:08 03:20:26 88
15 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:58:41 10:06:21 01:13:58 05:21:31 03:18:12 98
16 56 Annett Finger GER 10:03:24 10:16:45 01:09:59 05:23:25 03:25:00 (121)
17 70 Verena Walter GER 10:04:05 10:08:01 01:02:35 05:22:57 03:33:33 103
18 55 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:06:06 10:23:09 01:03:44 05:19:22 03:38:00 142
19 67 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:09:05 10:13:20 01:14:19 05:24:31 03:25:15 116
20 54 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:35:42 10:38:53 01:06:29 05:20:06 04:04:07 170
21 59 Claire Horner ZAF 10:39:37 10:52:26 01:03:59 05:39:26 03:51:11 (177)
71 Annah Watkinson ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After Jan Frodeno had to cancel his start in South Africa, the race is much more open. Based on previous results Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen are a step ahead of the rest, but there are 20 athletes that I expect to finish within 25 minutes so a lot can happen on race day. I’m sure that the South African athletes will be working extra hard for a podium spot (if not the very top spot), and it’ll be very interesting to follow Matt Trainman, James Cunnama and Kyle Buckingham on race day. Then there are a number of international athletes that could also do well:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 30% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 25% (3-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 9% (10-1)
  • James Cunnama: 7% (13-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (18-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 4% (23-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on the performance she showed last year, Jodie Swallow is the front runner in the women’s race. She faces strong competition by her British compatriots Corinne Abraham (hopefully back to racing healthy), Lucy Gossage (hopefully recovered from racing IM New Zealand) and Susie Cheetham (probably not quite at 100% after breaking her arm at 70.3 South Africa in January).

  • Jodie Swallow: 40% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 20% (4-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 19% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 11% (8-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 5% (20-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 4% (23-1)
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