Ironman Sweden 2016 (Aug 20) – Predictions

IMSweden

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:04:01 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:13:27
2013 Pedro Gomes (POR) 08:19:30 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 08:54:01
2014 Horst Reichel (GER) 08:13:01 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:56:50
2015 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:08:05 Astrid Stienen (GER) 09:12:27

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:52:11 04:27:12 02:45:48 08:08:05
2 Dougal Allan NZL 01:02:13 04:27:16 02:52:46 08:25:33
3 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:52:08 04:26:55 03:16:05 08:38:07

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Astrid Stienen GER 01:01:38 04:55:07 03:12:15 09:12:27
2 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:08:48 04:59:30 03:06:14 09:18:05
3 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 00:56:02 05:07:30 03:21:26 09:28:16

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:44:18 Viktor Zyemtsev 2014-08-16
Total female 08:54:01 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Swim female 00:48:30 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:05:26 Leanda Cave 2014-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 16:26.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 31:10 00:11 23:23 05:45 29 31:10 00:11 23:23 05:45
2013 13:46 -00:09 09:01 07:29 30 22:28 00:01 16:12 06:37
2014 14:54 -00:44 06:50 07:02 24 of 27 19:57 -00:14 13:05 06:45
2015 05:55 -03:11 02:29 04:02 19 of 21 16:26 -00:58 10:26 06:04

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 15 Kristin Moeller GER 09:23:04 09:38:07 01:04:50 05:13:36 02:59:38 73% +11% -16% (19) 45
2 2 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:23:31 09:36:16 01:02:42 04:57:36 03:18:13 51% +0% -49% (18) 41
3 1 Verena Walter GER 09:31:03 09:57:27 01:00:53 05:05:11 03:19:59 40% +46% -14% (6) 83
4 13 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:31:25 09:45:33 01:01:10 05:09:13 03:16:02 80% +20% -0% (10) 60
5 14 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:31:32 09:57:37 00:55:39 05:13:43 03:17:10 30% +23% -46% (6) 84
6 3 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:32:31 10:02:44 00:56:48 05:19:32 03:11:10 44% +40% -17% (11) 95
7 5 Lucie Reed CZE 09:35:22 09:50:25 00:52:41 05:16:20 03:21:21 52% +0% -47% (24) 66
8 7 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:04:52 10:31:32 01:06:01 05:08:17 03:45:34 46% +30% -25% (6) 155
9 12 Nicole Woysch GER 10:05:18 10:54:33 00:59:49 05:18:58 03:41:31 22% +3% -75% (21) (165)
9 Julia Montgomery SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Jessica Ahlund SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Verena Walter, Saleta Castro and Dimity-Lee Duke have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race.

  • Natascha Badmann: 22% (4-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 20% (4-1)
  • Verena Walter: 19% (4-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 15% (6-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 12% (7-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 8% (11-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 4% (25-1)

KPR Situation

Here are the top ranked participants in the KPR rankings (after the races on August 6th and 7th):

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
3 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 4645 3+2 (720/115)
1 Verena Walter GER 4600 3+1 (405/0)
13 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 4215 3+2 (960/320)
2 Natascha Badmann SUI 3325 3+2 (230/135)
15 Kristin Moeller GER 3315 3+1 (170/0)
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