Ironman Sweden 2016 (Aug 20) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2012	Jan Raphael (GER)	08:04:01	Asa Lundstroem (SWE)	09:13:27
2013	Pedro Gomes (POR)	08:19:30	Jodie Swallow (GBR)	08:54:01
2014	Horst Reichel (GER)	08:13:01	Leanda Cave (GBR)	08:56:50
2015	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	08:08:05	Astrid Stienen (GER)	09:12:27

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:52:11	04:27:12	02:45:48	08:08:05
2	Dougal Allan	NZL	01:02:13	04:27:16	02:52:46	08:25:33
3	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	00:52:08	04:26:55	03:16:05	08:38:07

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Astrid Stienen	GER	01:01:38	04:55:07	03:12:15	09:12:27
2	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	01:08:48	04:59:30	03:06:14	09:18:05
3	Mette Pettersen Moe	NOR	00:56:02	05:07:30	03:21:26	09:28:16

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:04:01	Jan Raphael	2012-08-18
Swim	overall	00:48:15	Andi Boecherer	2012-08-18
Bike	overall	04:24:20	Karl-Johan Danielsson	2012-08-18
Run	overall	02:44:18	Viktor Zyemtsev	2014-08-16
Total	female	08:54:01	Jodie Swallow	2013-08-17
Swim	female	00:48:30	Jodie Swallow	2013-08-17
Bike	female	04:48:42	Helene Malmkvist	2012-08-18
Run	female	03:05:26	Leanda Cave	2014-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 16:26.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	31:10	00:11	23:23	05:45	29	31:10	00:11	23:23	05:45
2013	13:46	-00:09	09:01	07:29	30	22:28	00:01	16:12	06:37
2014	14:54	-00:44	06:50	07:02	24 of 27	19:57	-00:14	13:05	06:45
2015	05:55	-03:11	02:29	04:02	19 of 21	16:26	-00:58	10:26	06:04

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	15	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:23:04	09:38:07	01:04:50	05:13:36	02:59:38	73% +11% -16% (19)	45
2	2	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:23:31	09:36:16	01:02:42	04:57:36	03:18:13	51% +0% -49% (18)	41
3	1	Verena Walter	GER	09:31:03	09:57:27	01:00:53	05:05:11	03:19:59	40% +46% -14% (6)	83
4	13	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:31:25	09:45:33	01:01:10	05:09:13	03:16:02	80% +20% -0% (10)	60
5	14	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:31:32	09:57:37	00:55:39	05:13:43	03:17:10	30% +23% -46% (6)	84
6	3	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:32:31	10:02:44	00:56:48	05:19:32	03:11:10	44% +40% -17% (11)	95
7	5	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:35:22	09:50:25	00:52:41	05:16:20	03:21:21	52% +0% -47% (24)	66
8	7	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:04:52	10:31:32	01:06:01	05:08:17	03:45:34	46% +30% -25% (6)	155
9	12	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:05:18	10:54:33	00:59:49	05:18:58	03:41:31	22% +3% -75% (21)	(165)
	9	Julia Montgomery	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	10	Jessica Ahlund	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Verena Walter, Saleta Castro and Dimity-Lee Duke have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race.

• Natascha Badmann: 22% (4-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 20% (4-1)
• Verena Walter: 19% (4-1)
• Carolin Lehrieder: 15% (6-1)
• Saleta Castro Nogueira: 12% (7-1)
• Dimity-Lee Duke: 8% (11-1)
• Lucie Reed: 4% (25-1)

KPR Situation

Here are the top ranked participants in the KPR rankings (after the races on August 6th and 7th):

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
3	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	4645	3+2 (720/115)
1	Verena Walter	GER	4600	3+1 (405/0)
13	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	4215	3+2 (960/320)
2	Natascha Badmann	SUI	3325	3+2 (230/135)
15	Kristin Moeller	GER	3315	3+1 (170/0)