Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions

Let us know your top picks for IM Texas at IM Predictions!

IMTexasUpdate: Unfortunately, Linsey Corbin had to withdraw a second time within a few days before a Regional Championship. Other DNS are Trevor Delsaut and Danielle Mack.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:47:55 04:26:59 02:49:17 08:09:37
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:55:18 04:21:28 02:52:44 08:14:53
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:09 04:28:24 02:52:16 08:17:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kelly Williamson USA 00:51:49 05:03:51 02:54:46 08:54:42
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:36 04:53:43 03:09:34 09:00:51
3 Amber Ferreira USA 00:52:58 05:02:16 03:11:24 09:11:48

In 2012, Haley Chura swam a 50:22 when she was still an agegrouper.

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:58, mainly because of a fast bike leg.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41 38 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41
2012 12:31 -01:24 13:44 02:53 23 12:10 -02:05 15:07 00:36
2013 06:58 -01:46 14:28 02:24 24 10:26 -01:59 14:54 01:12
2014 16:33 00:33 15:59 03:53 36 11:58 -01:21 15:10 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. As a Regional Championship, the Pro winners receive an automatic Kona slot.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:12:26 08:26:02 00:53:08 04:17:01 02:57:18 11
2 6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:14:14 08:26:06 00:50:18 04:25:13 02:53:42 12
3 2 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:16:09 08:33:53 00:49:19 04:23:00 02:58:49 (30)
4 4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:18:33 08:31:06 00:50:39 04:26:44 02:56:10 21
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:53 08:26:54 00:53:00 04:25:44 02:55:08 14
6 3 Justin Daerr USA 08:23:25 08:43:24 00:54:11 04:28:54 02:55:20 56
7 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:25:07 08:34:21 00:56:51 04:31:26 02:51:50 32
8 22 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:26:58 08:34:31 00:49:08 04:37:41 02:55:09 34
9 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:28:29 08:49:52 00:54:17 04:28:09 03:01:02 84
10 24 David Plese SLO 08:28:35 08:38:56 00:54:41 04:30:34 02:58:19 45
11 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:53 08:53:39 00:51:39 04:30:25 03:02:49 101
12 19 Matt Hanson USA 08:31:28 08:48:04 00:55:53 04:42:25 02:48:10 77
13 7 Matthew Russell USA 08:31:58 08:50:50 00:59:26 04:29:10 02:58:22 88
14 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:33:44 08:54:33 00:54:36 04:29:22 03:04:46 108
15 28 Joe Skipper GBR 08:34:39 08:47:31 00:55:38 04:37:39 02:56:22 74
16 14 Barrett Brandon USA 08:34:42 08:56:56 00:50:58 04:38:05 03:00:39 (119)
17 18 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:03 08:53:56 00:55:17 04:37:34 02:58:12 103
18 20 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:37:09 08:52:34 00:52:22 04:39:42 03:00:05 97
19 26 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:30 09:03:40 01:02:14 04:35:28 03:05:47 148
20 21 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:50:13 09:13:43 00:56:26 04:38:26 03:10:21 191
21 29 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:54:04 09:16:33 00:47:24 04:40:45 03:20:56 (201)
22 12 Blake Becker USA 08:59:06 09:31:47 00:54:36 04:46:06 03:13:23 265
23 17 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:25 09:30:56 01:00:24 04:43:52 03:16:09 260
24 13 Raymond Botelho USA 09:07:15 09:41:21 00:55:58 04:38:20 03:27:58 302
25 32 Patrick Schuster USA 09:07:27 09:41:26 01:04:24 04:40:11 03:17:52 304
26 31 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:08:31 09:24:57 00:57:54 04:54:48 03:10:48 245
27 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:48:10 10:04:49 00:59:09 05:03:09 03:40:52 386
10 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Timothy Clarke USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Mario Radevic DEU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:49:28 09:07:01 00:53:20 04:44:47 03:06:21 3
2 40 Kelly Williamson USA 09:07:38 09:31:13 00:53:50 05:09:21 02:59:27 27
3 46 Linsey Corbin USA 09:08:08 09:20:20 00:59:22 04:56:30 03:07:16 12
4 43 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:09:04 09:24:14 01:00:45 04:58:01 03:05:18 17
5 42 Leanda Cave GBR 09:10:26 09:22:15 00:52:19 04:56:51 03:16:15 14
6 47 Heather Jackson USA 09:11:03 09:34:51 00:59:54 04:43:59 03:22:09 (34)
7 49 Angela Naeth CAN 09:15:06 09:34:26 01:00:20 04:47:09 03:22:36 32
8 51 Sofie Goos BEL 09:18:19 09:36:50 00:57:32 04:58:40 03:17:07 38
9 60 Danielle Mack USA 09:20:43 09:56:23 01:04:40 04:58:48 03:12:15 81
10 44 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:21:55 09:31:08 00:57:05 04:59:19 03:20:31 26
11 45 Bree Wee USA 09:25:15 09:41:32 00:55:39 05:04:37 03:19:59 46
12 57 Katy Blakemore USA 09:25:35 09:43:40 00:54:34 05:08:15 03:17:47 50
13 59 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:26:01 09:42:57 01:04:45 05:04:05 03:12:12 48
14 54 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:27:55 09:43:36 01:03:40 04:56:28 03:22:47 49
15 53 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:57 09:50:32 00:57:36 05:07:26 03:17:54 (64)
16 48 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:52 10:01:07 01:11:21 05:01:57 03:19:34 89
17 63 Jessica Meyers USA 09:38:27 10:02:11 01:02:16 05:10:42 03:20:29 91
18 66 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:43:51 10:00:13 00:57:24 05:15:40 03:25:47 85
19 55 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:45:45 10:11:03 00:55:54 05:32:33 03:12:18 (111)
20 62 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:51:09 10:16:41 01:02:39 05:22:33 03:20:56 (122)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 09:52:13 10:34:12 00:59:52 05:14:44 03:32:37 155
22 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:03 10:10:15 01:16:13 05:10:03 03:21:47 109
23 65 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:55:38 10:18:43 01:03:13 05:11:21 03:36:04 128
24 67 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:59 10:37:50 01:04:50 05:12:14 03:46:55 158
25 52 Corrie Kristick USA 10:26:56 10:54:01 00:53:22 05:06:29 04:22:05 (167)
26 64 Samantha Morrison USA 12:39:38 13:12:27 00:54:51 05:35:47 06:04:00 (174)
61 Caroline Martineau CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

It’s almost impossible to picks a favorite for this race, though Jordan Rapp has made clear that he is focusing on this race. Ben Hoffmann has already validated his Kona slot and may not be at his absolute best. Andreas Raelert has been struggling for a few years, but appears to be healthy and focused. In addition to these three, no one would be surprised if Faris Al-Sultan, Justin Daerr, Ronnie Schildknecht or Victor Del Corral would win this races.

  • Jordan Rapp: 31% (2-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 17% (5-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 14% (6-1)
  • Faris Al-Sultan: 11% (8-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (10-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 7% (13-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 4% (26-1)
In addition are IM winners Chris McDonald, Matthew Russell, Lionel Sanders (even if his win was the non-swim-IM Florida) and Matt Hanson.

Female Race Participants

As seems to be getting the norm in the Regional Championships, the women’s field seems to be even deeper than the men’s field. Based on the data, Rachel Joyce is a step above the rest of the field, but she will probably be more focused on a good race in October than improving her course record from 2012. Corinne Abraham has shown great potential, winning two Regional Championships in the last two years. Linsey Corbin was ready to race IM South Africa but caught an infection shortly before the race. (She’s had some more bad luck before Texas and had to withdraw once again.) Leanda Cave hasn’t raced an IM this early in the season – she is usually strong in October/November. Defending Champion Kelly Williamson will be looking to repeat her fantastic performance from a year ago. Angela Naeth has taken last season to “learn IM racing” – ending the year with winning IM Chattanooga.

  • Rachel Joyce: 64% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 11% (8-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 6% (16-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 6% (16-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 5% (19-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (31-1)

In addition to these athletes there are Heather Jackson, Sofie Goos, Danielle Mack (nee Kehoe), Bree Wee, Sarah Piampiano and especially Heather Wurtele that would love to play a big role in this race.

2 Responses to Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions

  1. Brian May 7, 2015 at 5:46 am #

    Super excited to spectate this race. The year I did it, it was incredibly hot (2013). Hot even for Texas standards. Keep up the good work Thorsten. I love geekin’ out over the stats. =)

    • Thorsten May 8, 2015 at 9:43 am #

      Thanks, Brian! I think it’ll be a great race, I hope to be able to follow it over the internet from Germany. Hopefully the coverage will be good!

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