Ironman UK 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

Update July 10th: Congratulations to Brad Williams on the birth of his first child. Of course that takes precedence over racing.

IMUK LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12
2014 Cyril Viennot (FRA) 08:44:10 Tamsin Lewis (GBR) 09:52:12
2015 David McNamee (GBR) 08:46:37 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:31:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 David McNamee GBR 00:48:01 05:02:34 02:51:48 08:46:37
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:48:28 04:58:39 02:59:52 08:51:06
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:56:06 04:58:30 02:55:44 08:55:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:11 05:22:56 03:03:43 09:31:58
2 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:01:03 05:36:36 03:21:07 10:05:21
3 Alice Hector GBR 00:56:49 05:59:01 03:16:06 10:18:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:50:48 Cyril Viennot 2014-07-20
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:48:19 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-22
Bike female 05:22:13 Lucy Gossage 2013-08-04
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is – 03:43.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31 20 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31
2010 01:11 04:35 -23:58 09:10 14 01:50 00:46 -17:06 09:50
2011 08:38 04:47 -14:27 22:54 16 04:06 02:07 -16:13 14:12
2012 -06:47 00:02 -09:59 02:04 11 01:23 01:35 -14:40 11:10
2013 -05:23 04:05 -12:08 02:59 15 00:02 02:05 -14:09 09:32
2014 -09:47 01:11 -14:57 01:20 16 of 21 -01:36 01:56 -14:17 08:10
2015 -16:19 -01:11 -20:05 00:55 20 of 24 -03:43 01:29 -15:07 07:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Similar to IM Frankfurt, the defending women’s champion has the honor of racing with bib #1.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:20:22 09:17:37 00:56:19 05:17:58 03:01:05 92% +0% -8% (12) 11
2 2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:34:52 09:28:30 00:56:56 05:20:32 03:12:25 58% +9% -33% (18) 24
3 3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:39:11 09:35:55 01:00:50 05:37:14 02:56:08 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
4 6 Katja Konschak GER 09:43:56 09:53:47 00:51:40 05:42:03 03:05:13 39% +43% -18% (16) 80
5 4 Lucy Charles GBR 09:53:49 10:01:38 00:45:46 05:41:16 03:21:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (95)
6 7 Kate Comber GBR 10:04:23 10:06:14 00:52:15 05:45:10 03:21:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
7 8 Vicky Gill GBR 10:06:30 10:25:04 01:02:37 05:39:39 03:19:14 10% +46% -44% (3) (148)
8 5 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:20:55 10:21:50 00:59:40 05:53:01 03:23:14 61% +20% -19% (11) 134

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:42:07 08:48:19 00:46:27 04:53:22 02:57:18 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
2 21 Michael Raelert GER 08:42:21 08:47:46 00:46:15 04:57:51 02:53:15 11% +20% -69% (4) (79)
3 24 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:43:56 08:44:11 00:47:10 04:52:21 02:59:25 61% +20% -19% (27) 67
4 27 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:44:28 08:49:21 00:51:51 04:53:30 02:54:06 61% +19% -20% (11) 87
5 25 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:46:15 08:44:28 00:51:52 04:57:19 02:52:04 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
6 26 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:46:59 09:16:16 00:46:07 05:06:13 02:49:38 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
7 29 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:50:40 08:58:34 00:48:45 05:11:39 02:45:17 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
8 31 Denis Sketako SLO 08:52:07 08:58:52 00:52:25 04:57:36 02:57:06 51% +49% -0% (3) 120
9 23 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:53:51 08:53:05 00:46:08 05:03:06 02:59:37 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
10 22 Markus Thomschke GER 08:54:01 08:57:39 00:51:34 04:55:11 03:02:17 62% +12% -26% (15) 116
11 34 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:59:36 09:03:01 00:49:24 04:55:21 03:09:50 35% +31% -34% (9) 139
12 36 Patrick Evoe USA 09:03:37 08:57:10 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:03:05 87% +4% -9% (22) 112
13 28 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:04:46 09:02:31 00:51:36 05:03:45 03:04:25 60% +0% -40% (16) 136
14 33 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:53 09:03:29 00:53:00 04:58:47 03:10:06 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
15 38 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:09:45 09:10:34 00:52:39 05:11:52 03:00:13 53% +9% -38% (12) 168
16 32 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:18 09:38:53 00:47:42 05:10:09 03:18:26 55% +0% -45% (12) 251
17 30 Brad Williams USA 09:27:25 09:46:13 00:54:46 05:13:26 03:14:13 76% +0% -24% (4) 264
18 37 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:29 09:38:41 00:56:09 05:09:13 03:22:06 73% +25% -1% (14) 250
19 39 Peter Kern GER 09:38:13 10:02:53 00:54:28 05:15:53 03:22:52 16% +0% -84% (7) (284)
40 Chris Whitcombe GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side defending champion and race favorite Lucy Gossage is already safe for Kona. I also consider Katja Konschak safe at 4.860 points after finishing second at IM Germany, but she said she wants to be absolutely certain of qualifying and wants to control things herself. Among the others, the following athletes still have a chance for a July slot

  • Tine Deckers (3840), needs a 3rd place
  • Kristin Moeller (3145), needs a 2nd place

Male Race Participants

There are quite a large number of athletes that are still looking to secure a July slot, here’s the result they roughly need:

  • 6th: Michael Raelert
  • 4th: Markus Thomschke
  • 3rd: Harry Wiltshire, Romain Guillaume
  • 2nd: Andrej Vistica, Fabio Carvalho, Kirill Kotshegarov

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Gossage: 65% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 16% (5-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 9% (10-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 9% (10-1)

Male Race Participants

  • Fraser Cartmell: 26% (3-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 19% (4-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 17% (5-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrej Vistica: 10% (9-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 6% (15-1)
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