Ironman Vichy 2015 (Aug 30th) – Predictions

IMVichy

Update (Aug 26th): I have added Natascha Badmann and Nicole Woysch to the female start list, while Corinne Abraham said she is definitely not racing in Vichy and unlikely to race before Kona.

Update (Aug 28th): Unfortunately, Dirk Bockel had to withdraw from the race.

Ironman Vichy is held on a similar course as Challenge Vichy in previous years and is organized by the same company (that was bought by WTC). The race struggled to field a decent Pro field in the last few years and it was shortened to a half IM because of extreme weather conditions – therefore I don’t have reliable data from the earlier editions. However, it could be a fast race, especially on the bike.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vichy is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:24:25 08:21:49 00:47:11 04:32:48 02:59:25 (7)
2 5 Marc Duelsen GER 08:39:27 08:40:27 00:52:33 04:40:35 03:01:19 52
3 6 Michael Ruenz GER 08:46:44 08:57:41 00:53:08 04:50:18 02:58:18 117
4 22 Pascal Ramali GER 08:47:57 08:58:33 00:58:56 04:38:52 03:05:08 (120)
5 9 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:54:06 09:10:33 00:54:17 04:52:35 03:02:15 170
6 3 Christian Brader GER 08:55:33 08:55:13 00:56:40 04:54:18 02:59:35 108
7 14 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:00:42 09:01:24 01:00:28 04:50:22 03:04:51 128
8 25 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:01:29 09:00:00 00:49:08 04:55:33 03:11:49 125
9 8 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:02:53 09:05:43 00:53:51 04:53:03 03:10:59 148
10 7 AJ Baucco USA 09:04:35 09:04:51 00:52:34 04:53:15 03:13:46 145
11 11 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:07:09 09:08:52 00:56:17 04:50:41 03:15:11 162
12 2 Bertrand Billard FRA 09:08:05 09:23:17 00:48:27 04:42:33 03:32:05 (227)
13 10 Ivan Risti ITA 09:11:10 09:17:14 00:48:18 05:02:57 03:14:55 (200)
14 28 Jim Lubinski USA 09:18:20 09:30:30 01:01:35 05:02:49 03:08:56 254
15 15 Steve Rosinski USA 09:36:05 09:47:40 00:57:13 05:04:09 03:29:43 (321)
16 27 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 09:42:11 09:53:53 00:50:25 05:35:20 03:11:26 (348)
17 17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:45:23 09:57:09 00:54:15 05:11:04 03:35:04 (353)
18 26 Anthony Pannier FRA 09:49:29 09:57:21 00:49:05 04:51:15 04:04:09 (353)
19 16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:55:12 10:10:49 01:01:40 05:23:00 03:25:31 397
20 13 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:07:47 10:20:00 00:59:20 05:06:41 03:56:46 (424)
21 20 Maksim Kalinin RUS 10:36:07 10:38:34 01:13:28 05:32:57 03:44:42 456
22 19 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:40:34 10:52:18 01:01:36 05:58:45 03:35:13 (466)
12 Guillaume Jeannin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Christopher Sweet USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:24:06 09:23:37 00:59:37 05:09:00 03:10:30 17
1 40 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:14 09:29:33 01:01:42 05:05:12 03:21:20 25
2 43 Tine Holst DEN 10:06:24 10:09:37 01:05:42 05:23:19 03:32:22 112
3 44 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:10:34 10:20:07 01:08:55 05:31:08 03:25:31 137
4 42 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:11:02 10:13:14 01:03:20 05:42:56 03:19:46 (117)
5 45 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:19:27 10:27:01 01:02:56 05:36:19 03:35:12 157
6 48 Nicole Woysch GER 10:24:05 10:41:26 00:58:50 05:31:04 03:49:12 (165)
7 47 Anna Rovira Garrido ESP 10:28:54 10:41:43 01:11:01 05:33:34 03:39:20 (166)
46 Michelle Vella Wood MLT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Dirk Bockel is returning to IM racing after a long injury break. If he is anywhere close to his previous form, he is the clear favorite to win this race and start his quest to qualify for Kona 2016: With Dirk Bockel not starting, the race is pretty open:

  • Dirk Bockel: 60% (1-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 16% (5-1)
  • Michael Ruenz: 8% (11-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Brader: 3% (36-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 2% (52-1)
  • Andrey Lyatskiy: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

Corinne has been on virtually all July and August IM start list, but as she is qualified for Kona without additional racing, she won’t be racing in Vichy. In her absence, Natascha Badmann is the clear favorite:

  • Natascha Badmann: 73% (1-1)
  • Tine Holst: 11% (8-1)
  • Maria Lemeseva: 6% (17-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 5% (18-1)
  • Alyssa Godesky: 4% (27-1)
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