Ironman Vineman 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMVineman

This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Richie Cunningham AUS 08:35:04 08:47:12 00:49:19 04:38:40 03:02:05 50% +0% -50% (3) (78)
2 4 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:40:53 08:39:09 00:49:13 04:41:38 03:05:01 68% +0% -32% (9) 53
3 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:42:27 08:40:43 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:57:24 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
4 5 Barrett Brandon USA 08:45:00 08:45:09 00:47:50 04:50:57 03:01:13 60% +0% -40% (5) 69
5 2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:54 08:46:30 00:53:33 04:46:41 03:04:40 62% +8% -30% (41) 76
6 17 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:50:54 08:55:08 00:53:37 04:44:15 03:08:02 57% +12% -31% (13) 102
7 6 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:14 09:01:16 00:54:07 04:44:00 03:10:06 39% +11% -51% (21) 131
8 8 Guy Crawford NZL 09:06:36 09:14:38 00:49:02 04:44:46 03:27:48 27% +37% -36% (12) 183
9 19 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:48 09:27:55 00:55:22 05:02:51 03:13:35 66% +24% -11% (16) 219
10 13 Colin Laughery USA 09:19:07 09:24:45 01:00:01 05:00:51 03:13:15 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
11 14 James Lubinski USA 09:23:03 09:31:31 01:02:16 05:03:31 03:12:16 44% +25% -31% (16) 231
12 15 Douglas MacLean USA 09:23:20 09:25:51 00:58:04 05:08:26 03:11:50 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
13 12 Andrew Langfield USA 09:44:27 09:56:12 00:57:41 05:21:00 03:20:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
14 18 Jorge Vazquez MEX 10:05:15 10:17:24 00:53:52 05:14:51 03:51:32 42% +0% -58% (3) (287)
15 16 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:42 10:11:28 00:52:36 05:16:40 03:53:26 69% +10% -22% (12) 283
1 Max Biessmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicholas Granet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 27 Heather Jackson USA 09:22:49 09:24:12 00:58:52 05:08:02 03:10:56 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 26 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:23:06 09:17:57 00:51:16 05:05:52 03:20:59 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 25 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:28:31 09:32:17 01:02:46 05:10:08 03:10:37 41% +47% -12% (14) 36
4 29 Amanda Stevens USA 09:30:01 09:30:05 00:51:32 05:15:40 03:17:50 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
5 30 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:41:54 09:44:05 01:01:58 05:25:27 03:09:30 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
6 41 Darbi Roberts USA 09:44:37 09:58:31 00:52:49 05:21:32 03:25:15 37% +0% -63% (5) 89
7 37 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:40 09:49:32 00:58:36 05:20:08 03:22:56 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
8 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:57:22 10:05:04 00:55:58 05:24:55 03:31:30 26% +7% -67% (26) 99
9 39 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:58:28 10:00:27 00:59:15 05:32:23 03:21:50 100% +0% -0% (3) 93
10 38 Jocelyn McCauley USA 10:04:46 10:23:05 00:59:27 05:30:31 03:29:49 41% +0% -59% (4) (137)
11 34 Caroline Gregory USA 10:13:13 10:25:09 00:56:01 05:42:40 03:29:32 48% +7% -45% (13) 148
12 42 Jessica Smith USA 10:16:09 10:25:18 00:55:38 05:31:06 03:44:25 38% +0% -62% (6) (149)
13 36 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:48:37 10:56:26 01:07:07 05:48:16 03:48:14 55% +0% -45% (3) (168)
14 32 Terry Casey USA 10:59:05 11:12:19 00:58:47 05:36:07 04:19:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (170)
15 31 Katy Cargiulo USA 11:01:40 11:08:17 01:01:34 06:10:47 03:44:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (170)
33 Kendra Goffredo USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Monica Juhart AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Ashley Paulson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Kyra Wiens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
  • Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)
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