This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 3 | Richie Cunningham | AUS | 08:35:04 | 08:47:12 | 00:49:19 | 04:38:40 | 03:02:05 | 50% +0% -50% (3) | (78) |
| 2 | 4 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | 08:40:53 | 08:39:09 | 00:49:13 | 04:41:38 | 03:05:01 | 68% +0% -32% (9) | 53 |
| 3 | 7 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:42:27 | 08:40:43 | 00:52:07 | 04:47:56 | 02:57:24 | 65% +5% -30% (22) | 57 |
| 4 | 5 | Barrett Brandon | USA | 08:45:00 | 08:45:09 | 00:47:50 | 04:50:57 | 03:01:13 | 60% +0% -40% (5) | 69 |
| 5 | 2 | Chris McDonald | AUS | 08:49:54 | 08:46:30 | 00:53:33 | 04:46:41 | 03:04:40 | 62% +8% -30% (41) | 76 |
| 6 | 17 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 08:50:54 | 08:55:08 | 00:53:37 | 04:44:15 | 03:08:02 | 57% +12% -31% (13) | 102 |
| 7 | 6 | Thomas Gerlach | USA | 08:53:14 | 09:01:16 | 00:54:07 | 04:44:00 | 03:10:06 | 39% +11% -51% (21) | 131 |
| 8 | 8 | Guy Crawford | NZL | 09:06:36 | 09:14:38 | 00:49:02 | 04:44:46 | 03:27:48 | 27% +37% -36% (12) | 183 |
| 9 | 19 | Jesse Vondracek | USA | 09:16:48 | 09:27:55 | 00:55:22 | 05:02:51 | 03:13:35 | 66% +24% -11% (16) | 219 |
| 10 | 13 | Colin Laughery | USA | 09:19:07 | 09:24:45 | 01:00:01 | 05:00:51 | 03:13:15 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (209) |
| 11 | 14 | James Lubinski | USA | 09:23:03 | 09:31:31 | 01:02:16 | 05:03:31 | 03:12:16 | 44% +25% -31% (16) | 231 |
| 12 | 15 | Douglas MacLean | USA | 09:23:20 | 09:25:51 | 00:58:04 | 05:08:26 | 03:11:50 | 83% +5% -12% (13) | 210 |
| 13 | 12 | Andrew Langfield | USA | 09:44:27 | 09:56:12 | 00:57:41 | 05:21:00 | 03:20:46 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (269) |
| 14 | 18 | Jorge Vazquez | MEX | 10:05:15 | 10:17:24 | 00:53:52 | 05:14:51 | 03:51:32 | 42% +0% -58% (3) | (287) |
| 15 | 16 | Sergio Quezada | MEX | 10:07:42 | 10:11:28 | 00:52:36 | 05:16:40 | 03:53:26 | 69% +10% -22% (12) | 283 |
| 1 | Max Biessmann | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 9 | Ivan Dominguez | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 10 | Rafael Goncalves | BRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 11 | Nicholas Granet | FRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 27 | Heather Jackson | USA | 09:22:49 | 09:24:12 | 00:58:52 | 05:08:02 | 03:10:56 | 19% +56% -25% (4) | 20 |
| 3 | 25 | Sarah Piampiano | USA | 09:28:31 | 09:32:17 | 01:02:46 | 05:10:08 | 03:10:37 | 41% +47% -12% (14) | 36 |
| 4 | 29 | Amanda Stevens | USA | 09:30:01 | 09:30:05 | 00:51:32 | 05:15:40 | 03:17:50 | 60% +21% -19% (17) | 28 |
| 5 | 30 | Ariane Monticeli | BRA | 09:41:54 | 09:44:05 | 01:01:58 | 05:25:27 | 03:09:30 | 55% +27% -18% (14) | 59 |
| 6 | 41 | Darbi Roberts | USA | 09:44:37 | 09:58:31 | 00:52:49 | 05:21:32 | 03:25:15 | 37% +0% -63% (5) | 89 |
| 8 | 28 | Kate Bevilaqua | AUS | 09:57:22 | 10:05:04 | 00:55:58 | 05:24:55 | 03:31:30 | 26% +7% -67% (26) | 99 |
| 10 | 38 | Jocelyn McCauley | USA | 10:04:46 | 10:23:05 | 00:59:27 | 05:30:31 | 03:29:49 | 41% +0% -59% (4) | (137) |
| 12 | 42 | Jessica Smith | USA | 10:16:09 | 10:25:18 | 00:55:38 | 05:31:06 | 03:44:25 | 38% +0% -62% (6) | (149) |
| 14 | 32 | Terry Casey | USA | 10:59:05 | 11:12:19 | 00:58:47 | 05:36:07 | 04:19:11 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (170) |
| 15 | 31 | Katy Cargiulo | USA | 11:01:40 | 11:08:17 | 01:01:34 | 06:10:47 | 03:44:19 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (170) |
| 33 | Kendra Goffredo | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 35 | Monica Juhart | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 40 | Ashley Paulson | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 43 | Kyra Wiens | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
- Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
- Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
- Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
- Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
- Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
- Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)
Female Race Participants
There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:
- Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
- Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
- Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
- Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
- Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)