Ironman Wales 2014 (Sept 14th) – Predictions

Thanks to Steve Clark who sent me the Wales start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:47:13 05:11:26 03:02:35 09:09:10
2 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:47:05 05:16:02 03:07:22 09:18:16
3 Michael Goehner GER 00:52:07 05:16:10 03:02:05 09:19:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:59 05:31:36 03:15:02 09:51:21
2 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:56:01 05:36:54 03:35:44 10:18:00
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:09 06:02:30 03:12:39 10:24:05

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 05:04:16 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:31:36 Lucy Gossage 2013-09-08
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 11:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21 20 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21
2012 02:13 04:44 -23:34 17:26 22 -08:44 04:32 -24:32 08:53
2013 -17:28 00:55 -28:37 -01:19 22 -11:39 03:20 -25:53 05:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:12:00 09:00:21 00:47:54 04:43:15 03:17:54 (100)
2 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:12:32 09:00:52 00:53:41 04:45:10 03:04:23 105
3 14 Matt Trautman ZAF 09:12:56 09:01:16 00:48:14 04:41:32 02:59:20 (110)
4 2 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:16:33 09:04:48 00:51:25 04:53:28 03:09:12 123
5 11 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:20:01 09:08:12 01:00:33 04:52:00 03:06:17 137
6 12 Oliver Simon GBR 09:46:06 09:33:44 00:48:39 04:55:39 03:33:48 232
7 15 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:46:49 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (238)
8 5 James Brown GBR 09:52:20 09:39:50 01:01:30 05:02:04 03:14:57 262
9 3 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:53:32 09:41:00 00:59:43 05:35:27 03:24:43 (265)
10 6 Steve Clark GBR 10:03:57 09:51:12 00:57:57 05:02:25 03:22:03 (303)
11 17 Martin Cain GBR 10:28:57 10:15:41 00:59:11 05:17:20 03:37:13 382
12 7 Christian Funk GER 11:43:09 11:28:19 01:25:38 05:37:16 03:41:38 (454)
8 Rinus Holvoet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Harry Springall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Peter Wilby GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Tamsin Lewis was planning on racing in Wales, but has said on Twitter she can’t start. This leaves only a small women’s field:

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 24 Julia Bohn GER 10:36:59 10:23:32 01:01:02 05:30:38 03:36:17 (119)
2 22 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:38:31 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 121
3 23 Amy Forshaw GBR 11:01:21 10:47:24 01:03:45 05:40:27 03:35:21 146
4 25 Laura Bostock GBR 12:41:25 12:25:21 01:02:32 06:13:09 04:32:03 (162)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s race promises some close racing, and there is no obvious pre-race favorite:

  • Nick Baldwin: 34% (2-1)
  • Daniel Niederreiter: 20% (4-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 18% (4-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 16% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Julia Bohn: 56% (1-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 31% (2-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 8% (12-1)
  • Laura Bostock: 2% (47-1)
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