Ironman Western Australia 2015 (Dec 6th) – Predictions

WALogoUpdate Dec 1st: The latest startlist shows withdrawals by Simon Billeau, Chris Legh, Giles Clayton, Sarah Crowley, Kathrin Walter and Allison Fitch.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Crawford (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44
2014 Denis Chevrot (FRA) 08:05:58 Britta Martin (NZL) 08:56:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:46:23 04:26:42 02:49:11 08:05:58
2 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:04 04:27:50 02:53:37 08:12:11
3 Per Bittner GER 00:48:36 04:26:20 02:56:29 08:14:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:56:39 04:55:37 03:00:00 08:56:34
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:58:02 04:44:16 03:14:13 09:00:21
3 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:13 04:58:27 03:07:27 09:02:11

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:56:34 Britta Martin 2014-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:44:16 Mareen Hufe 2014-12-07
Run female 02:58:17 Beth Gerdes 2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:05.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32 27 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32
2006 16:01 00:31 15:04 02:55 31 08:57 -01:14 08:28 00:12
2007 23:57 00:43 13:40 04:29 47 13:57 -00:35 10:12 01:37
2008 15:30 -00:07 15:24 00:34 39 14:20 -00:28 11:30 01:22
2009 14:55 01:15 14:35 -04:00 25 14:27 -00:07 12:07 00:17
2010 09:38 00:10 10:09 02:05 24 13:39 -00:04 11:48 00:35
2011 03:58 -00:22 09:00 02:33 27 12:16 -00:07 11:24 00:52
2012 13:06 -01:22 08:49 02:36 26 12:22 -00:16 11:04 01:05
2013 16:04 00:07 15:16 06:41 22 of 30 12:47 -00:14 11:32 01:42
2014 15:49 00:58 17:35 04:11 32 of 48 13:05 -00:07 12:09 01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 7 David Dellow AUS 08:10:47 08:29:29 00:47:44 04:24:31 02:53:31 17
2 1 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:17:33 08:49:41 00:47:14 04:32:30 02:52:49 82
3 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:17:47 08:42:37 00:48:42 04:22:40 03:01:25 58
4 5 Christian Kramer GER 08:21:58 08:41:55 00:48:18 04:30:25 02:58:14 56
5 17 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:23:36 08:40:24 00:50:48 04:32:17 02:55:32 50
6 3 Per Bittner GER 08:23:51 08:41:08 00:49:24 04:30:21 02:59:06 54
7 18 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:29:26 08:53:02 00:51:28 04:37:45 02:55:13 95
8 4 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:32:25 08:42:32 00:51:33 04:39:24 02:56:27 57
9 15 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:34:52 08:47:44 00:50:53 04:40:35 02:58:24 74
10 6 Simon Billeau FRA 08:37:47 08:59:12 00:53:41 04:28:49 03:10:16 123
11 10 Tim Reed AUS 08:38:50 08:54:38 00:47:55 04:32:21 03:13:33 (107)
12 20 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:44:16 09:10:09 00:45:19 04:38:09 03:15:48 176
13 21 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:45:32 09:05:34 00:55:39 04:41:11 03:03:42 157
14 9 Chris Legh AUS 08:51:13 09:04:33 00:53:34 04:38:36 03:14:02 148
15 19 Bryan Rhodes NZL 08:51:35 09:11:56 00:47:55 04:37:26 03:21:13 (185)
16 11 Johan Borg AUS 08:58:02 09:29:12 00:55:48 04:42:27 03:14:48 251
17 16 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:02:58 09:18:40 01:06:29 04:46:58 03:04:31 217
12 Giles Clayton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Allister Caird AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Both Sarah Crowley and Kathrin Walther have said they won’t be racing in Busselton after doing IM Malaysia.

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 31 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:05:23 09:16:23 00:58:39 04:51:07 03:10:37 7
2 33 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:13:55 09:34:18 01:02:25 04:56:40 03:09:49 34
3 32 Mareen Hufe GER 09:15:10 09:37:44 00:59:25 04:50:40 03:20:05 40
4 38 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:24:41 09:38:28 00:57:52 05:05:09 03:16:41 43
5 37 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:25:44 09:46:53 01:01:41 05:02:54 03:16:08 58
6 35 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:32:35 09:53:11 00:57:42 05:02:29 03:27:24 (74)
7 40 Alison Fitch AUS 09:35:26 09:50:08 00:53:16 05:06:26 03:30:44 (66)
8 36 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:36:04 09:58:50 00:56:08 05:07:12 03:27:44 84
9 39 Kathrin Walther GER 09:41:10 10:15:58 01:00:32 05:04:51 03:30:47 123
41 Georgie Rutherford GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner Denis Chevrot is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in David Dellow who always races well when he’s fit. Luke McKenzie and Christian Kramer want to close the year with a good result after a DNF and a 34st in Kona. Per Bittner is working to qualify for Kona 2016, he already has a 3rd in Barcelona in his KPR total.

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 24% (3-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 19% (4-1)
  • Christian Kramer: 10% (9-1)
  • Per Bittner: 6% (16-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the clear favorite, but she has been racing a lot even after declining her Kona slot. Her main challengers are Sarah Piampiano (7th in Kona – maybe also not the freshest after a long season of racing) and Mareen Hufe (last year’s second who also raced Kona).

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 57% (1-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 25% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 11% (8-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 4% (24-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 2% (65-1)
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