Ironman Western Australia (Dec 7th) – Predictions

Busselton

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Ferguson (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:47:03 04:29:17 02:48:18 08:08:16
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:53:17 04:27:16 02:51:23 08:16:01
3 David Dellow AUS 00:48:16 04:32:34 02:54:26 08:19:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:11 04:58:21 03:00:37 08:59:44
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:49 04:47:53 03:16:24 09:08:00
3 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:10 04:56:20 03:24:29 09:19:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:47:53 Mareen Hufe 2013-12-08
Run female 03:00:37 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-12-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20 20 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20
2006 14:45 00:28 14:38 02:50 25 08:19 -01:15 08:09 00:15
2007 24:27 00:42 13:35 04:21 37 13:41 -00:36 09:57 01:37
2008 15:18 -00:10 15:45 -00:09 29 14:05 -00:30 11:24 01:11
2009 12:44 01:13 14:16 -04:43 19 13:49 -00:09 11:59 00:00
2010 09:25 00:07 10:11 02:03 21 13:05 -00:06 11:41 00:20
2011 05:08 -00:24 08:46 02:38 25 11:57 -00:09 11:16 00:40
2012 14:49 -01:25 08:46 02:40 23 12:18 -00:19 10:57 00:55
2013 20:42 00:06 15:03 05:48 16 13:14 -00:16 11:24 01:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Please note special bib #83: Western Australia will be the 83rd and final Ironman race for Jason Shortis.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 David Dellow AUS 08:19:25 08:29:32 00:47:37 04:29:50 02:56:58 11
2 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:21:28 08:49:59 00:45:11 04:24:54 03:06:23 (57)
3 3 Joe Gambles AUS 08:28:01 08:40:23 00:49:09 04:32:50 03:01:01 31
4 8 Christian Kemp AUS 08:29:44 08:53:26 00:47:05 04:32:53 03:04:46 (73)
5 9 Matty White AUS 08:33:14 09:04:24 00:51:36 04:32:08 03:04:30 119
6 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:33:54 08:52:24 00:52:31 04:40:42 02:55:41 66
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:34:21 08:51:06 00:49:04 04:32:11 03:08:06 61
8 5 Matt Burton AUS 08:34:35 08:55:17 00:54:17 04:30:00 03:05:18 (83)
9 20 Todd Israel AUS 08:35:14 09:09:28 00:50:11 04:40:15 02:59:48 141
10 16 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:35:21 08:55:52 00:48:36 04:44:31 02:57:13 87
11 10 Markus Thomschke GER 08:35:50 09:07:01 00:54:03 04:34:31 03:02:16 136
12 83 Jason Shortis AUS 08:37:10 08:57:14 00:54:25 04:39:46 02:58:00 96
13 4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:37:27 09:03:03 00:50:30 04:37:36 03:04:20 113
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:39:57 09:03:31 00:52:17 04:29:44 03:12:56 (114)
15 19 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:44:05 08:54:33 00:51:40 04:45:19 03:02:05 80
16 29 Joshua Rix AUS 08:44:21 09:07:26 00:49:59 04:34:08 03:15:14 138
17 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:44:31 09:18:42 00:48:37 04:33:03 03:17:51 186
18 13 Per Bittner GER 08:44:32 08:54:47 00:51:06 04:43:27 03:04:59 82
19 30 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:46:01 09:04:50 00:49:12 04:36:11 03:15:38 121
20 26 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:47:38 09:03:32 00:53:15 04:38:25 03:10:58 115
21 6 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:49:23 09:05:00 00:55:09 04:41:13 03:08:00 123
22 22 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:50:11 09:10:27 00:54:32 04:45:37 03:05:01 146
23 28 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:59:48 09:11:40 01:02:02 04:45:20 03:07:25 151
24 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:00:08 09:29:43 00:55:36 04:42:26 03:17:06 227
25 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:00:23 09:17:20 00:53:44 04:53:45 03:07:54 177
26 23 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:00:40 09:21:19 00:51:25 04:51:25 03:12:50 196
27 25 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:01:36 09:10:30 00:53:04 04:50:36 03:12:56 147
28 21 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:46 09:36:03 01:05:32 04:56:55 03:03:19 (251)
29 24 Andreas Niedrig GER 09:11:18 09:22:50 00:48:56 04:41:36 03:35:46 202
30 27 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:15:00 09:38:55 00:57:30 05:00:03 03:12:27 263
  14 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 43 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:24 09:21:18 00:59:01 04:51:08 03:11:15 6
2 42 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:12:48 09:22:41 00:51:29 05:05:32 03:10:48 8
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:13:39 09:31:57 00:57:28 05:05:02 03:06:09 18
4 48 Anja Beranek GER 09:13:49 09:37:51 00:53:26 04:54:09 03:21:14 (30)
5 46 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:51 09:41:33 00:59:16 04:55:02 03:21:33 35
6 64 Britta Martin NZL 09:21:51 09:38:40 01:00:34 05:03:36 03:12:40 30
7 62 Mareen Hufe GER 09:27:23 09:44:42 01:00:57 04:56:39 03:24:48 46
8 49 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:28:57 09:53:09 00:54:19 04:59:40 03:29:58 58
9 45 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:15 09:43:23 01:01:30 05:06:31 03:18:14 39
10 44 Bree Wee USA 09:32:19 09:48:05 00:54:44 05:09:34 03:23:01 51
11 51 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:35:51 10:17:05 00:57:02 05:05:03 03:28:46 104
12 53 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:47 09:59:18 00:58:37 05:09:00 03:24:09 76
13 47 Melanie Burke NZL 09:37:34 09:54:17 01:06:45 05:05:04 03:20:45 59
14 66 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:18 09:51:54 01:02:33 05:07:09 03:23:37 55
15 60 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:57 10:01:11 00:54:04 05:08:02 03:35:51 81
16 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:48:57 10:05:15 01:04:11 05:27:36 03:12:10 85
17 58 Erin Furness NZL 09:52:11 10:26:17 01:01:21 05:19:56 03:25:55 124
18 68 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:08 10:09:52 00:56:46 05:24:44 03:26:38 94
19 56 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:53:15 10:14:07 01:01:05 05:21:22 03:25:48 101
20 55 Katy Duffield AUS 09:54:23 10:21:34 00:59:22 05:23:02 03:27:00 (112)
21 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:54:42 10:14:45 01:03:42 05:20:06 03:25:54 103
22 65 Larisa Marsh NZL 09:56:43 10:19:43 01:01:47 05:16:59 03:32:57 (109)
23 61 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:58:15 10:18:14 01:06:06 05:21:17 03:25:52 106
24 57 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:01:07 10:26:43 01:07:58 05:16:47 03:31:22 (126)
25 67 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:04:01 10:23:11 01:01:10 05:20:34 03:37:17 114
26 52 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:05:30 10:23:18 00:53:44 05:22:33 03:44:13 (115)
27 63 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:55 10:48:41 01:05:04 05:20:55 03:46:57 151
  54 Kym Coogan AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  69 Pip Taylor AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

At the top of the odds there are a lot of the Australians who either missed Kona (such as David Dellow with an injury, Clayton Fettell who took a year off IM racing) or didn’t quite have the race they wanted (Joe Gambles who finished 27th).

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 15% (6-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 12% (7-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 9% (10-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Kemp: 6% (15-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 4% (24-1)
  • Matty White: 2% (40-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

After having only 8 female finishers last year, this year sees a strong and deep women’s field, headed by Yvonne Van Vlerken (recent winner of IM Florida) and defending champion Liz Lyles. However, there are a lot of other IM winners in the field (Liz Blatchford, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler, Britta Martin, Asa Lundstroem, Bree Wee, Kate Bevilacqua, Dede Griebauer), so we can expect an interesting race not only for first place but also for the money slots.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 39% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 28% (3-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 12% (7-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 9% (10-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 6% (17-1)
  • Britta Martin: 4% (22-1)
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