Ironman Whistler (June 26th) – Predictions

IMWhistler

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13
2014 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:16:10 Bree Wee (USA) 09:46:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:50:56 04:31:34 02:51:17 08:16:10
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:59 04:51:15 02:40:34 08:25:22
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:50:58 04:41:05 02:58:16 08:33:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:15 05:29:07 03:17:41 09:46:58
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:59 05:29:19 03:22:52 09:51:35
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:53 05:25:05 03:24:45 09:52:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:10 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Swim overall 00:48:45 Bryan Rhodes 2013-08-25
Bike overall 04:31:34 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Run overall 02:40:34 Jeff Symonds 2014-07-27
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:53:09 Anna Cleaver 2014-07-27
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada (Whistler) is 01:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 00:57 -00:01 -01:14 03:13 19 00:57 -00:01 -01:14 03:13
2014 02:49 -00:07 -04:03 -00:13 13 01:53 -00:04 -02:38 01:30

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:27:08 08:34:12 00:50:34 04:47:15 02:44:19 34
2 9 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:34:10 08:32:46 00:48:57 04:40:45 02:59:28 28
3 4 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:34:28 08:35:28 00:50:06 04:47:09 02:52:13 37
4 22 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:34:49 08:38:14 00:49:57 04:33:09 03:06:43 42
5 11 Dougal Allan NZL 08:36:07 08:48:02 01:03:01 04:32:22 02:55:44 (83)
6 12 Justin Daerr USA 08:38:18 08:43:24 00:52:44 04:45:18 02:55:16 63
7 3 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:39:57 08:44:29 00:49:51 04:41:57 03:03:09 66
8 10 Barrett Brandon USA 08:43:21 08:50:34 00:48:03 04:53:59 02:56:20 (91)
9 6 Luke Bell AUS 08:43:39 08:48:38 00:47:27 04:45:34 03:05:38 85
10 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:44:00 08:55:10 00:53:03 04:45:04 03:00:54 111
11 1 Matthew Russell USA 08:45:10 08:50:09 00:57:20 04:44:29 02:58:21 89
12 8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:49:46 08:48:40 00:52:24 04:47:53 03:04:28 86
13 14 Derek Garcia USA 09:00:44 09:06:25 00:52:48 04:49:43 03:13:13 154
14 17 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:02:25 09:19:15 00:54:12 04:53:43 03:09:30 215
15 19 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:12:02 09:29:54 01:02:31 05:05:35 02:58:57 260
16 18 Nathan Killam CAN 09:22:27 09:24:37 00:55:43 05:03:37 03:18:08 246
17 16 Elmar Heger GER 10:26:26 10:29:21 00:54:48 05:12:13 04:14:26 463
18 21 Jason Watson USA 11:05:04 11:09:00 00:59:19 05:37:25 04:23:19 487
13 Alistair Eeckman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Travis Hawkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Gray Skinner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 33 (Mary Beth Ellis) USA 09:20:12 09:17:15 00:51:03 05:07:52 03:16:17 9
2 35 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:23:17 09:24:14 00:56:49 05:17:04 03:04:25 19
3 53 Caitlin Snow USA 09:26:50 09:29:02 00:55:46 05:23:15 03:02:49 24
4 38 (Beth Gerdes) USA 09:27:14 09:42:34 01:00:24 05:19:59 03:01:51 50
5 37 Danielle Mack USA 09:31:25 09:56:23 01:02:25 05:13:48 03:10:12 82
6 48 (Amanda Stevens) USA 09:32:11 09:33:26 00:50:44 05:17:09 03:19:18 33
7 51 Laurel Wassner USA 09:38:55 09:44:01 00:53:49 05:28:35 03:11:32 53
8 34 Jessie Donavan USA 09:40:52 09:38:56 01:07:04 05:11:22 03:17:27 46
9 43 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:51 09:51:52 00:59:06 05:21:20 03:21:25 69
10 32 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:48:17 09:53:50 00:54:48 05:28:46 03:19:43 74
11 41 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:49:37 09:52:46 01:00:01 05:16:33 03:28:03 71
12 49 Christie Sym AUS 10:04:06 10:05:17 00:58:39 05:32:30 03:27:57 105
13 39 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:04:53 10:10:10 01:05:23 05:24:43 03:29:47 114
14 40 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:09:00 10:16:40 01:04:19 05:33:51 03:25:51 125
15 52 Molly Roohi USA 10:13:16 10:16:44 01:04:44 05:34:43 03:28:50 126
16 50 Jen Annett CAN 10:13:29 10:27:41 01:05:16 05:23:28 03:39:45 158
36 Melanie McQuaid CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Richele Frank CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Cheryl Orlovsky CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Male Race Participants

Jeff Symonds is already safe for Kona, but there are a handful of athletes looking for more points to get a July Kona slot. A good number to shoot for is Terenzo Bozzone’s 3.850 points.

  • Luke Bell (3.665 – just needs a few more points, a 7th will probably be enough)
  • Paul Ambrose (3.095 – needs a podium finish)
  • Kyle Buckingham (2.665 – needs second place finish)
  • Matthew Russell (2.440), Barrett Brandon (2.320) and Viktor Zyemtsev (1.980) probably need a win

Female Race Participants

There are two athletes that can get a July slot with a good result:

  • Caitlin Snow (3.735 but already three IMs, needs a third┬áplace finish)
  • Laurel Wassner (3.580 – needs a third place finish)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Jeff Symonds is the favorite to win his home IM:

  • Jeff Symonds: 36% (2-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 13% (7-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 11% (8-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 8% (11-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 8% (11-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 8% (11-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 6% (15-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 4% (22-1)
  • Luke Bell: 3% (36-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 2% (53-1)

Female Race Participants

With Mary Beth Ellis, Beth Gerdes and Amanda Stevens a lot of the top contenders on paper are probably not starting in Whistler, I’ve put them (in brackets) in the list of participants and in the odds. Leaving them aside, Liz Lyles is the favorite on the female side:

  • (Mary Beth Ellis: 27% (3-1))
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 21% (4-1)
  • (Beth Gerdes: 18% (5-1))
  • Caitlin Snow: 14% (6-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 14% (6-1)
  • (Amanda Stevens: 2% (46-1))
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