Ironman Wisconsin 2016 (WPRO-only, Sep 11th) – Predictions

Update Sep 1st: I have removed a few athletes that are no longer on the latest startlist (Uli Bromme, Haley Chura, Amber Ferreira, Melanie McQuaid).
IMWisconsin

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Andriy Yastrebov (UKR) 09:01:34 Ute Mueckel (GER) 10:11:22
2006 Markus Forster (GER) 09:07:24 Katja Schumacher (GER) 10:01:22
2007 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:52:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:37:03
2008 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:43:29 Hillary Biscay (USA) 09:47:25
2009 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:45:19 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:43:59
2010 Joe Gambles (AUS) 08:38:32 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:27:26
2011 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:45:18 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:41:03
2012 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:32:51 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 09:34:35
2013 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:40:15 Jackie Hering (USA) 09:47:07
2014 Daniel Bretscher (USA) 08:31:20 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:30:08

2014 TOP 3

In 2015 IM Wisconsin was an age-group only race, therefore I’m showing the 2014 results.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:52:16 04:42:57 02:50:14 08:31:20
2 Brandon Marsh USA 00:47:52 04:46:54 02:51:06 08:32:23
3 Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:17 04:42:51 02:55:41 08:36:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:13 05:15:26 03:08:40 09:30:08
2 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:04:13 05:15:52 03:14:15 09:41:16
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:29 05:32:10 03:09:36 09:45:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:31:20 Daniel Bretscher 2014-09-07
Swim overall 00:44:56 John Flanagan 2010-09-12
Bike overall 04:31:14 Konstantin Bachor 2014-09-07
Run overall 02:50:14 Daniel Bretscher 2014-09-07
Total female 09:27:26 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Swim female 00:48:41 Linda Gallo 2005-09-11
Bike female 05:12:50 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Run female 02:59:33 Elizabeth Lyles 2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:46.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -16:49 00:22 -08:17 -10:21 37 -16:49 00:22 -08:17 -10:21
2006 -19:18 -03:29 -17:26 -03:19 29 -18:03 -01:33 -12:52 -06:50
2007 -01:45 -03:49 -04:05 03:36 35 -12:37 -02:18 -09:56 -03:22
2008 01:55 -00:36 -01:50 02:33 29 -08:59 -01:53 -07:55 -01:53
2009 -04:22 -01:31 -00:43 -02:35 31 of 32 -08:04 -01:49 -06:28 -02:02
2010 00:36 -01:18 -00:25 01:27 29 of 30 -06:37 -01:43 -05:28 -01:27
2011 -08:32 -01:40 -01:20 -04:15 24 -06:54 -01:43 -04:52 -01:51
2012 -08:13 -01:35 00:15 -00:10 24 -07:03 -01:42 -04:14 -01:38
2013 -01:25 -03:15 -00:30 02:33 27 of 34 -06:26 -01:52 -03:49 -01:10
2014 00:13 -00:55 00:14 00:39 26 of 27 -05:46 -01:47 -03:25 -00:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:29:20 09:25:46 00:58:15 05:17:12 03:08:54 63% +6% -31% (14) 22
2 2 Amanda Stevens USA 09:37:44 09:35:57 00:53:10 05:19:25 03:20:10 51% +17% -32% (18) 38
3 4 Haley Chura USA 09:39:42 09:43:32 00:50:39 05:22:22 03:21:41 64% +14% -22% (9) (53)
4 13 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:46:37 09:46:22 00:59:27 05:15:50 03:26:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (59)
5 16 Darbi Roberts USA 09:50:51 09:58:31 00:54:30 05:25:07 03:26:14 37% +0% -63% (5) 85
6 3 Uli Bromme USA 09:53:44 09:51:41 01:05:08 05:19:49 03:23:47 35% +38% -27% (14) (69)
7 5 Amber Ferreira USA 09:58:05 09:50:23 00:58:42 05:23:57 03:30:26 51% +18% -31% (16) 65
8 14 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:04:52 10:00:27 01:01:07 05:36:00 03:22:45 100% +0% -0% (3) 88
9 8 Christine Hammond USA 10:08:56 10:04:08 00:56:38 05:31:47 03:35:30 100% +0% -0% (7) (95)
10 10 Heather Leiggi USA 10:13:55 10:20:07 01:02:48 05:31:30 03:34:37 46% +13% -41% (6) (126)
11 7 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:17:30 10:17:42 01:02:56 05:38:56 03:30:39 58% +27% -14% (13) 117
12 17 Molly Roohi USA 10:22:14 10:17:30 01:06:55 05:36:59 03:33:20 100% +0% -0% (4) (116)
13 18 Katie Thomas USA 10:24:53 10:20:03 00:55:28 05:37:44 03:46:41 100% +0% -0% (3) (126)
14 15 Ashley Paulson USA 10:25:27 10:31:17 01:14:42 05:42:14 03:23:31 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)
15 9 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:55:33 10:56:26 01:09:14 05:52:02 03:49:16 55% +0% -45% (3) (159)
6 Danielle Fischer USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicole Luse USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 52% (1-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 21% (4-1)
  • Haley Chura: 14% (6-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 4% (22-1)
  • Darbi Roberts: 3% (29-1)
  • Melanie McQuaid: 3% (32-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 2% (65-1)
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