KPR Situation Before the Last July Races

Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)

Women’s Qualifying

Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
24 Walter, Verena DEU 4.600 3+1 (405/435)
25 Tondeur, Alexandra BEL 4.530 2+3 (1280/435)
26 Gerdes, Beth USA 4.490 2+3 (1375/280)
27 Lester, Carrie AUS 4.420 2+2
28 Monticeli, Ariane BRA 4.335 2+3 (340/500) IM Zürich
29 Robertson, Jodie USA 4.305 1+3 (3400/240) 70.3 Calgary,
IM Lake Placid
3rd,
14th
33 Bilham, Emma CHE 3.755 1+3 (1600/240) IM Zürich 5th
35 Williamson, Kelly USA 3.215 2+1 IM Lake Placid 3rd
36 Grohmann, Katharina DEU 3.205 3+1 (855/320) IM Zürich Win
37 Moeller, Kristin DEU 3.145 2+1 IM Zürich 3rd
38 Badmann, Natascha CHE 3.095 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
47 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 2.585 2+2 IM Zürich Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:

  • Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
  • Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top 10 in Lake Placid 3 in Calgary (2).
  • Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
  • The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).

This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.

Men’s Qualifying

Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
31 Vistica, Andrej HRV 3.770 3+2 (720/30) IM Zürich
32 Rana, Ivan ESP 3.745 2+1
33 Chevrot, Denis FRA 3.735 2+2
34 Bittner, Per DEU 3.620 2+3 (1280/75)
35 Petersen-Bach, Jens DNK 3.610 3+1 (685/115)
36 Millward, Callum NZL 3.580 2+3 (685/435) IM Whistler
37 Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3.495 3+2 (720/135) IM Zürich
38 Billard, Bertrand FRA 3.490 2+2 IM Zürich
39 Chrabot, Matt USA 3.470 2+3 (235/345)
40 Plese, David SVN 3.415 3+2 (90/100) IM Zürich
41 Matthews, Paul AUS 3.225 1+3 (2455/145) 70.3 Calgary 2nd
43 Bracht, Timo DEU 2.995 2+2 IM Zürich 6th
46 Gomes, Pedro PRT 2.797 2+1 IM Whistler 5th
48 Zyemtsev, Viktor UKR 2.575 1+2 IM Whistler 4th
49 Aigroz, Mike CHE 2.555 2+3 (120/75) IM Whistler 4th
54 Carvalho, Fabio BRA 2.460 1+3 (1670/135) IM Zürich 4th
55 Van Berkel, Jan CHE 2.455 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
56 Wurtele, Trevor CAN 2.445 1+3 (540/625) IM Whistler 3rd
62 Schildknecht, Ronnie CHE 2.190 2+0 IM Zürich 3rd
63 Brader, Christian DEU 2.099 3+1 (405/9) IM Zürich 2nd
66 Daerr, Justin USA 2.030 2+1 IM Whistler 2nd
84 Collins, Benjamin USA 1.635 2+3 (60/125) IM Whistler Win

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:

  • The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
    (1 to 4).
  • Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and Viktor Mike (5 to 7).
  • At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
  • The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).

But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!

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