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Ironman Sweden 2018 (Aug 18th) – Entry List

IMSweden_LogoFemale Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Asa Lundstroem SWE 3510 3+1 (720/240)
Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 3335 2+1
Corinne Abraham GBR 3280 2+1
Dede Griesbauer USA 2780 2+1
Kimberley Morrison GBR 2690 2+2 (720/400)
Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 2320 2+1
Michaela Herlbauer AUT 1505 1+2 (565/400)
Celine Schaerer SUI 980 1+1
Renee Kiley AUS 785 1+1
Annie Thoren SWE 420 0+2 (0/180)
Federica De Nicola ITA 180 0+1
Emma Graaf SWE 0 0+0
Melanie Baumann SUI

Ironman Netherlands (Maastricht) 2018 (Aug 5th) – Seedings

IMMaastrichtLogoThe analysis for IM Maastricht is supported by Ruud de Haan and his Dutch website Trikipedia.nl. Many thanks and all the best for your announcing in Maastricht!

Update Aug 1st: The latest startlist shows a few withdrawals (Saleta Castro, Tine Deckers, and Lucy Gossage).

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:27:18 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:39:24
2016 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:28:17 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:24:42
2017 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:18:09 Saleta Castro Nogueira (ESP) 09:37:17

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:56:02 04:31:23 02:45:16 08:18:09
2 Michael Van Cleven BEL 00:49:23 04:33:20 02:55:46 08:23:27
3 Bas Diederen NED 00:47:29 04:41:18 02:52:26 08:25:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:51:49 05:24:50 03:14:31 09:37:17
2 Brooke Brown CAN 01:03:47 05:14:32 03:23:52 09:48:13
3 Kate Comber GBR 00:51:20 05:30:39 03:27:19 09:55:47

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:18:09 Michael Weiss 2017-08-06
Swim overall 00:46:16 Igor Amorelli 2016-07-31
Bike overall 04:31:23 Michael Weiss 2017-08-06
Run overall 02:45:16 Michael Weiss 2017-08-06
Total female 09:24:42 Mary Beth Ellis 2016-07-31
Swim female 00:48:18 Mary Beth Ellis 2016-07-31
Bike female 05:14:32 Brooke Brown 2017-08-06
Run female 03:04:47 Saleta Castro Nogueira 2016-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 03:59.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 -08:19 01:00 -01:25 01:38 25 of 32 -08:19 01:00 -01:25 01:38
2016 -05:39 02:12 -07:14 -00:02 15 of 20 -06:59 01:36 -04:20 00:48
2017 01:59 00:49 01:24 02:35 15 of 18 -03:59 01:20 -02:25 01:24

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 30.000 US$, paying 8 deep. This year IM Maastricht is a WPRO-only race (the MPRO counterpart is IM Tallinn one day earlier).

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 14% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:19:35 09:13:47 00:56:52 05:05:53 06:07:45 03:11:50 76% +0% -24% (35) 7
2 8 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:23:37 09:17:46 00:58:01 05:08:08 06:11:09 03:12:28 98% +0% -2% (20) 14
3 17 Sara Svensk * SWE 09:31:36 09:33:21 00:56:58 05:14:12 06:16:11 03:15:25 47% +30% -23% (4) 41
4 3 Tine Deckers BEL 09:32:47 09:25:41 00:57:14 05:11:10 06:13:24 03:19:23 79% +3% -18% (24) 28
5 9 Elisabeth Gruber * AUT 09:37:19 09:42:31 00:59:41 05:25:02 06:29:43 03:07:36 74% +3% -23% (11) 56
6 6 Haley Chura USA 09:37:30 09:33:34 00:49:48 05:20:57 06:15:45 03:21:45 88% +5% -7% (12) 42
7 14 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:42:42 09:37:12 00:50:29 05:26:19 06:21:49 03:20:53 80% +0% -20% (11) 46
8 11 Katja Konschak GER 09:42:49 09:44:05 00:53:12 05:32:58 06:31:10 03:11:39 54% +21% -25% (23) 58
9 2 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:45:59 09:46:23 00:54:18 05:34:11 06:33:29 03:12:30 71% +24% -5% (18) 62
10 4 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:46:35 09:52:32 00:58:32 05:08:09 06:11:41 03:34:54 38% +11% -51% (8) 76
11 13 Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 09:49:14 09:50:17 01:09:53 05:18:23 06:33:17 03:15:57 80% +8% -12% (20) 73
12 16 Jenny Schulz * GER 09:53:29 10:05:17 01:01:09 05:38:05 06:44:14 03:09:15 12% +77% -11% (3) (101)
13 12 Carolin Lehrieder * GER 09:55:24 10:32:57 00:54:44 05:31:30 06:31:14 03:24:10 13% +5% -82% (13) (141)
14 15 Lina-Kristin Schink * GER 10:07:52 10:21:18 01:09:04 05:32:32 06:46:36 03:21:16 46% +15% -39% (11) 127
15 18 Els Visser NED 10:13:58 10:24:49 00:58:14 05:23:16 06:26:30 03:47:28 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (130)
16 10 Pleuni Hooijman NED 10:15:51 10:14:39 01:04:15 05:23:30 06:32:45 03:43:06 100% +0% -0% (2) 119
5 Sonia Bracegirdle NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
7 Federica De Nicola * ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 58% (1-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 32% (2-1)
  • Sara Svensk: 4% (26-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 2% (54-1)
  • Haley Chura: 2% (54-1)

Ironman Tallinn 2018 (Aug 4th) – Seedings

IMTallinnThis is the first time for Ironman Tallinn, there are no previous winners, course records or course ratings.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Tallinn is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 30.000 US$, paying 8 deep. It is an MPRO-only race, the female counterpart is IM Maastricht.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 15% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 42 Ronnie Schildknecht * SUI 08:27:34 08:27:27 00:52:53 04:37:08 05:35:01 02:52:33 67% +0% -33% (35) 33
2 1 Marko Albert EST 08:29:47 08:29:16 00:46:49 04:37:47 05:29:35 03:00:12 97% +2% -1% (18) 42
3 3 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:56 08:31:31 00:47:50 04:40:44 05:33:34 02:57:22 71% +3% -26% (15) 54
4 6 David Plese * SLO 08:31:18 08:29:22 00:53:17 04:39:30 05:37:47 02:53:31 84% +5% -11% (26) 43
5 13 Marc Duelsen GER 08:31:19 08:31:47 00:51:06 04:38:56 05:35:02 02:56:17 91% +0% -9% (12) 58
6 29 Michael Van Cleven BEL 08:33:12 08:56:20 00:50:06 04:35:23 05:30:30 03:02:42 16% +27% -57% (5) (143)
7 8 Miquel Blanchart Tinto * ESP 08:36:09 08:35:19 00:49:27 04:50:37 05:45:04 02:51:05 89% +2% -9% (20) 68
8 5 Christian Kramer * GER 08:36:52 08:37:28 00:48:05 04:40:44 05:33:49 03:03:03 75% +4% -20% (22) 79
9 4 Philipp Koutny * SUI 08:39:55 08:46:18 00:50:59 04:40:28 05:36:27 03:03:28 64% +0% -36% (9) 98
10 9 Markus Thomschke GER 08:40:30 08:41:09 00:52:50 04:38:47 05:36:37 03:03:53 42% +21% -37% (20) 87
11 18 Per Bittner * GER 08:40:57 08:45:20 00:49:46 04:43:35 05:38:20 03:02:37 43% +6% -51% (26) 93
12 10 Daniil Sapunov * UKR 08:44:18 08:50:03 00:48:37 04:49:45 05:43:21 03:00:57 73% +6% -21% (11) 113
13 16 Anton Blokhin BLR 08:46:28 08:51:57 00:50:37 04:47:37 05:43:14 03:03:14 69% +15% -16% (25) 121
14 15 Michael Ruenz * GER 08:47:12 08:55:59 00:56:28 04:50:17 05:51:45 02:55:27 61% +0% -39% (14) 142
15 2 Johannes Moldan GER 08:52:18 09:05:42 00:51:07 04:40:33 05:36:39 03:15:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (173)
16 23 Seppe Odeyn BEL 08:56:49 09:02:01 01:05:37 04:48:45 05:59:22 02:57:27 100% +0% -0% (3) 164
17 17 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:59:48 08:57:35 00:51:42 04:57:36 05:54:18 03:05:30 95% +2% -4% (34) 146
18 14 Balazs Csoke * HUN 09:04:48 09:10:37 00:48:20 05:01:22 05:54:42 03:10:06 35% +6% -60% (31) 191
19 41 Urs Mueller * SUI 09:08:23 09:21:38 00:53:05 04:48:25 05:46:30 03:21:53 38% +16% -45% (8) 219
20 20 Mike Schifferle * SUI 09:10:18 09:19:47 01:00:42 04:54:29 06:00:11 03:10:07 78% +6% -16% (74) 208
21 35 Hubert Hammerl AUT 09:17:21 09:21:40 00:52:49 05:05:15 06:03:04 03:14:17 77% +5% -18% (17) (220)
22 31 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:19:10 09:34:26 00:56:48 04:56:24 05:58:12 03:20:58 10% +37% -52% (8) 252
23 37 Michael Louys BEL 09:24:17 09:42:37 01:03:27 04:57:00 06:05:27 03:18:50 33% +5% -62% (14) (263)
24 21 Inaki De La Parra * POL 09:32:46 09:46:09 00:59:08 04:56:15 06:00:22 03:32:24 43% +0% -57% (2) (269)
25 11 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:33:41 09:39:40 01:00:25 05:00:42 06:06:07 03:27:34 81% +4% -14% (22) 260
26 40 Ilkka Utriainen FIN 09:41:27 09:54:01 00:55:41 05:16:08 06:16:49 03:24:38 47% +53% -0% (2) (275)
27 34 Sebastian Guhr GER 09:48:57 10:03:46 01:05:01 04:56:35 06:06:36 03:42:21 60% +0% -40% (2) (280)
28 26 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:11:33 10:26:05 01:08:08 05:23:16 06:36:24 03:35:09 17% +52% -31% (11) 289
29 36 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:55:28 11:11:58 01:09:07 05:43:54 06:58:01 03:57:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (299)
30 25 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:21:13 11:50:07 01:13:48 05:55:13 07:14:01 04:07:12 34% +23% -43% (19) 303
31 19 Marek Nemcik * SVK 11:21:19 11:59:59 01:12:56 05:38:52 06:56:49 04:24:30 35% +20% -45% (47) 304
7 Ivo Suur EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
24 Jarno Piik FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Sanne Swolfs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Grigorii Navrotskii RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Gergo Badar HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
32 Hannes Bonami BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Gregor Buchholz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
38 Philipp Reiner AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Joona Tuikka FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

  • Denis Chevrot: 23% (3-1)
  • Marko Albert: 19% (4-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 18% (5-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 17% (5-1)
  • David Plese: 9% (10-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 8% (12-1)
  • Michael Van Cleven: 5% (20-1)
  • Christian Kramer: 2% (63-1)

Kona 2018 Qualifying Before the Final July Races

Update July 22nd: The post has been updated after the results of IM Lake Placid (WPRO only).

This post looks at Kona Qualifying before the remaining July races:

Date Type Race Points
22-Jul IM Ironman Lake Placid – WPRO only P-2000
28-Jul 70.3 70.3 Santa Rosa P-750
29-Jul IM Ironman Switzerland P-2000
29-Jul IM Ironman Hamburg P-2000
29-Jul IM Ironman Canada (Whistler) – MPRO only P-2000

The following analysis is built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assumes that there are not going to be any late entries.

Women’s Qualifying

There are 28 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the female Pros in July. (There will be another 7 in August.) Here is a graphical view of the athletes who I consider to be safe for a July slot:

KPRWomenJuly22

The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the last qualifying slots:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
(5) Heather Jackson 6.975 (NV) 1+2 registered for IM Lake Placid
– Liz Lyles 6.325 2+1 expected to decline (announced retirement)
(17) Annabel Luxford 5.215 (NV) 1+1 registered for IM Switzerland
23 Helle Frederiksen 4.845 1+2
24 Lisa Huetthaler 4.680 2+2
25 Jen Annett 4.615 3+1
26 Tine Deckers 4.490 3+1
27 Anne Haug 4.480 1+2
26 Jodie Robertson 4.340 1+2 registered for IM Lake Placid & 70.3 Santa Cruz
28 Melanie Burke 4.035 2+1 registered for IM Switzerland
29 Sara Svensk 4.035 2+2 registered for IM Switzerland & IM Hamburg

(Heather Jackson validated by winning IM Lake Placid, Jodie Robertson finished fourth and scored enough points to be safe now. Jen Annett finished second and is now “in the bubble” for a July slot.)

As you can see, I’m not counting Liz Lyles as she has announced her retirement and is expected to decline her slot. (The “formal decline” can only happen after the end of July qualifying when Ironman asks athletes to accept their slots.) There is are also Heather Jackson (registered for IM Lake Placid) and Annabel Luxford (registered for IM Switzerland) who still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a points slot, but they should be able to do so in their races. With these reasonable assumptions, Sara Svensk Melanie Burke currently occupies the last qualifying spot with 4.035 points. (She has the same number of points as Melanie Burke Sara but is ahead behind on the tie-breaker top score.) Also, Helle Frederiksen is “safe” for a slot, there are only six athletes with a chance to pass her in the remaining races so she can’t fall further back than to 28th points place.

The following table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still overtake Sara Melanie will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Sara, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Maja Stage Nielsen 3.335 2+1 IM Hamburg 5th (2nd)
Corinne Abraham 3.280 2+1 IM Hamburg 4th (2nd)
Jen Annett 3.255 2+2 IM Lake Placid 3rd (win)
Kelsey Withrow 2.560 1+2 IM Lake Placid, 70.3 Santa Rosa 2nd (n/a)
Daniela Sämmler 2.460 1+2 IM Hamburg 2nd (n/a)
Martina Kunz 2.330 2+2 IM Zürich win (n/a)

There are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Men’s Qualifying

There are 40 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the male Pros in July. (There will be another 10 in August.) Here is a quick view of the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot:

KPRMen

The following table lists the male Pros in the last qualifying ranks:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
(7) James Cunnama 6.500 1+2 (NV) registered for IM Hamburg
– Boris Stein 3.920 1+2 (NV) not racing in July, looking to validate in Copenhagen
(28) Bart Aernouts 3.865 1+2 (NV) registered for IM Hamburg
29 Romain Guillaume 3.795 2+2
30 Luke McKenzie 3.715 2+1
31 Tyler Butterfield 3.705 2+2 after 70.3 Santa Rosa
32 Thiago Vinhal 3.700 3+1
33 Matt Chrabot 3.630 1+2
34 Marino Vanhoenacker 3.600 2+0 unknown if interested in a slot, registered for IM Canada
35 Tim Reed 3.470 2+2
36 Callum Millward 3.465 2+2 registered for IM Canada
37 Denis Chevrot 3.465 2+2
38 Will Clarke 3.445 1+2 registered for IM Hamburg
39 Simon Cochrane 3.420 3+1
40 Mike Phillips 3.390 2+2 registered for IM Switzerland
41 Jan van Berkel 3.390 3+0 registered for IM Switzerland

James Cunnama, Boris Stein and Bart Aernouts still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. James and Bart are registered for IM Hamburg, and “just finishing” will secure a points slot for them. However, Boris has been injured shortly before IM France, he is not going to race before the end of July. Therefore I am including James and Bart but not Boris in my “points ranks”. This means that currently Jan van Berkel occupies the last direct qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that a number of athletes are going to score and that more than 3.390 points will be needed. There are a few more uncertainties, for example it is unclear if Cam Brown or Marino Vanhoenacker are even interested in a Kona slot (they might decline) and whether Terenzo Bozzone is going to accept his slot (he is still recovering from being hit by a truck while training on the bike).

There is a theoretical chance for the cutoff to occur as high as 3.890 points, but that requires a large number of pretty improbably race outcomes. As shown in the graph above I therefore consider everyone down to Cam Brown (at 3.840 points) to be safe, and every athlete who is able to pass Cam is going to receive in a slot unless some really weird things occur.

The next table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still get to at least 3.400 points will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass that mark, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Philipp Koutny 3.325 2+2 IM Switzerland 6th (4th)
Jonathan Shearon 3.290 2+2 IM Hamburg 5th (3rd)
Ty Butterfield 3.165 2+1 70.3 Santa Rosa 6th (2nd)
Jeremy Jurkiewicz 3.100 3+1 IM Switzerland 4th (3rd)
Ronnie Schildknecht 3.005 2+2 IM Switzerland 5th (3rd)
Tim Don 2.900 0+2 IM Hamburg 6th (4th)
Christian Kramer 2.675 2+2 IM Hamburg 4th (3rd)
Jesper Svensson 2.620 1+2 IM Hamburg 4th (3rd)
David Plese 2.455 3+1 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Mark Bowstead 2.425 2+1 IM Canada 3rd (2nd)
Miguel Blanchard Tinto 2.340 3+1 IM Hamburg, IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Johann Ackermann 1.905 2+2 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Sven Riederer 1.845 1+2 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Horst Reichel 1.445 1+2 IM Hamburg win (n/a)

As for the women, there are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Ironman UK 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMUK LogoCourse Conditions 

This year’s bike course was shortened by about 27km (or 17 miles) because wildfires made parts of the planned course unusable or dangerous. This resulted in bike times about 45 minutes quicker than normal.The swim was four minutes slower (non-wetsuit?) with a “normal” run, resulting in overall times about 40 minutes quicker than in previous years, making expected times hard to reliably calculate, so the “difference to expected” should be considered more of an indication.  

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Joe Skipper GBR 00:56:35 04:08:30 02:45:56 07:55:34 -07:58 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Marc Duelsen GER 00:56:00 04:06:21 02:56:19 08:02:54 -10:02 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Fabian Rahn GER 01:05:30 04:15:17 02:53:17 08:18:23 -03:37 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Henry Irvine GBR 00:58:19 04:08:35 03:08:20 08:19:50 n/a US$ 2,500 960
5 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:53:09 04:27:11 02:56:36 08:21:16 -07:30 US$ 1,500 720
6 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:57:06 04:19:23 03:06:23 08:28:03 04:03 US$ 1,000 540
7 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:55:59 04:18:44 03:17:00 08:36:24 -09:42   405
8 Domenico Passuello ITA 01:01:56 04:22:39 03:16:16 08:46:19 26:16   305
9 Eneko Elosegui ESP 01:05:21 04:31:26 03:19:55 09:02:46 -08:42   230
  Will Clarke GBR 00:53:36 04:28:57   DNF      
  Brian Fogarty GBR 01:25:26 05:33:16   DNF      
  Balazs Csoke HUN 00:50:57     DNF      
  Arnaud Guilloux FRA 00:54:00     DNF      
  Andreas Niedrig GER 00:55:13     DNF      

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:02:26 04:28:40 03:14:26 08:51:18 -03:43 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 01:29:15 04:38:47 03:10:45 09:24:15 05:53 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Angela Naeth CAN 01:04:53 04:36:01 03:46:33 09:33:48 07:09 US$ 3,000 1280

Kona Qualifying

Here’s the athletes that have improved their Kona slot chances in Bolton:

  • Safe: Joe Skipper (Lucy Gossage was already safe before the race)
  • Close (but probably not enough): Camilla Lindholm, Simon Cochrane

The other athletes that scored well are still too far behind the projected cutoffs to have a realistic chance for a slot without racing again.

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