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Ironman South Africa 2018 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The weather in Port Elizabeth was great, but the lack of wind did not create fast times. Overall, the adjustments were typical for IM South Africa: a slow Ocean swim, followed by “normal” bike and run conditions. 

Lucy Charles posted a new female swim course record (beating Lucy Zelenkova’s 2009 swim by 8 seconds). Camron Wurf was very close to setting a new bike course record, he missed Ray Tissink’s 2011 time by just 3 seconds!

Male Race Results

The swim and bike unfolded as expected: Josh Amberger was taking the lead in the swim, he was two minutes ahead of the rest of the field. But Cam Wurf wasn’t too far back and by 90k he had taken the lead, starting the run with a seven minute lead on Josh and about ten minutes to a larger group of stronger runners. That group included defending champion Ben Hoffman but he quickly had back issues and was forced to walk almost the complete marathon (still finishing in just over 12 hours, but adding an IM finish to his KPR points to be eligible for a Kona slot). 

Cameron Wurf has improved his run and he was holding on to his lead for almost three of the four run legs. By then South African Kyle Buckingham had methodically worked his way to the front, first running away from the others in his bike chase group, then overtaking Josh Amberger and eventually taking the lead. In the end, his solid 2:48 marathon was good enough for a three minute win over Josh Amberger who also ran well. Third place went to the young German Maurice Clavel who executed a smart race in the big bike group followed by a 2:54 marathon, edging out Cam Wurf for the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:22 04:31:51 02:48:42 08:13:00 -15:39 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Josh Amberger AUS 00:46:24 04:31:35 02:53:43 08:16:01 -16:10 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Maurice Clavel GER 00:48:21 04:31:56 02:54:01 08:18:51 04:09 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:50:15 04:19:44 03:05:10 08:20:07 -08:34 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:53 04:35:37 02:49:03 08:23:09 -01:33 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:56 04:35:48 02:49:15 08:23:57 -16:50 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:48:30 04:42:43 02:48:33 08:25:10 01:03 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:48:19 04:37:53 02:54:57 08:25:29 -02:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:50:44 04:40:33 02:50:35 08:26:18 -16:16 US$ 1,500 855
10 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:28 04:31:48 03:07:07 08:31:56 06:21 US$ 1,000 685
11 Peru Alfaro ESP 00:48:12 04:44:57 02:58:07 08:36:18 09:24   515
12 Michael Ruenz GER 00:57:42 04:47:55 02:48:17 08:38:21 -04:53   385
13 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:49:53 04:42:56 03:09:25 08:47:14 25:33   290
14 Sebastian Norberg SWE 00:53:52 04:46:57 03:15:27 09:00:39 n/a   215
15 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:48:20 05:03:44 03:07:54 09:05:18 29:30   160
16 Darby Thomas FIN 01:00:55 04:47:19 03:14:22 09:07:29 15:23   120
17 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 00:53:44 04:51:41 03:22:03 09:11:47 -08:48   90
18 Bekim Christensen DEN 01:05:56 04:46:32 03:28:53 09:27:13 08:48   70
19 Hans Muehlbauer GER 00:55:31 05:22:21 03:11:41 09:34:55 15:18   50
20 Philippe Lamberty LUX 00:53:49 04:56:48 04:16:20 10:11:19 n/a   40
21 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:17 04:30:57 06:42:00 12:06:48 3:53:55   25
  Evert Scheltinga NED 00:48:14 04:41:29   DNF      
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:49:15 04:46:04   DNF      
  Reece Barclay GBR 00:48:21 04:50:00   DNF      
  Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 01:05:48 05:26:27   DNF      
  Markus Fachbach GER 00:49:13     DNF      
  Artem Parienko RUS 00:51:29     DNF      

Female Race Results

The female race was “The Lucy Show”: Lucy Charles posted the fastest swim and started the bike with a five minute lead. She was also riding well (the only female sub-5 bike split), by T2 she was eleven minutes ahead of Rachel McBride, twelve ahead of Susie Cheetham and 19 ahead of Linsey Corbin. All four leaders were running well, and even though Rachel fell back to fourth place, her 3:16 run was a new marathon PR for her. Linsey finished third with the best marathon in the field, her best marathon since 2014 season when she finished the fastest North American Ironman. Susie Cheetham set a new marathon PR, just missing the 3-hour mark but finishing a very solid second an continuing her streak of four podium finishes in Port Elizabeth in a row. But the undisputed winner by six minutes was Lucy, who also set a new marathon PR while winning her first Regional Championship and securing an Automatic Qualifier slot for Kona. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:32 04:57:21 03:05:45 08:56:06 -11:39 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:55:48 05:01:54 03:00:47 09:02:58 -07:31 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Linsey Corbin USA 00:55:48 05:08:14 02:58:16 09:07:10 -09:12 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Rachel McBride CAN 00:52:47 05:04:06 03:16:55 09:18:34 -13:50 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Manon Genet FRA 00:59:43 05:06:05 03:11:21 09:21:59 -22:45 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:59:18 05:11:02 03:14:38 09:30:14 -06:34 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:10:06 05:13:17 03:06:53 09:35:07 -14:35 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Martina Kunz SUI 01:02:04 05:16:01 03:13:27 09:36:40 -03:26 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 00:58:06 05:17:11 03:16:59 09:37:21 18:57 US$ 1,500 855
10 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:59:17 05:20:44 03:12:15 09:38:30 05:54 US$ 1,000 685
11 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 00:59:54 05:27:53 03:12:17 09:45:19 00:39   515
12 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:55:42 05:29:38 03:17:26 09:47:58 02:50   385
13 Corina Hengartner SUI 01:04:25 05:38:38 03:09:36 09:58:59 06:31   290
14 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 01:06:41 05:55:17 04:03:38 11:12:58 26:03   215
  Charlotte Morel FRA 00:52:58 05:14:11   DNF      
  Emma Pallant GBR 00:55:47 05:13:39   DNF      
  Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP 00:55:46 05:15:35   DNF      
  Katja Konschak GER 00:55:50 05:24:41   DNF      
  Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:07:29 05:21:00   DNF      
  Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:55:48     DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

This early in the season, a lot of athletes are looking to position themselves for an early Kona slot or at least a good path towards a slot. Here’s where the top finishers are currently placed.

Men

  • Automatic Qualifier: Kyle Buckingham
  • Safe for a July slot: Cameron Wurf, Maurice Clavel, Josh Amberger, Ben Hoffman
  • On the Bubble: Jonathan Shearon (at 3.290 he will probably need more points)
  • Close, but will need more points: Ronnie Schildknecht

Women

  • Automatic Qualifier: Lucy Charles
  • Safe for a July slot: Susie Cheetham, Linsey Corbin
  • All others will still need a good number of points to get to the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, the best placed are Manon Genet (3.370 points), Maja Stage Nielsen (3.335) and Rachel McBride (3.295). 

Ironman Cairns (June 10th) – Entry List

Updates May 3rd:

  • WPRO: Added Teresa Adam, Anja Beranek, Liz Blatchford, Sarah Crowley, Jessie Donavan, Gurutze Frades Larralde, Dede Griesbauer, Alise Selsmark
    In addition Lauren Brandon posted on Twitter that she’ll be racing Cairns as well.
  • MPRO: Added Terenzo Bozzone, Braden Currie, Javier Gomez, Urs Mueller, David Plese, Tim Van Berkel, Thiago Vinhal, Cameron Wurf
  • Josh Amberger and Angela Naeth are no longer on the most recent startlist, for now I have left them in the tables below but have added a “*” to their names.

Male Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Terenzo Bozzone NZL 10000 3+1 (2000/1275)
Tim Van Berkel AUS 5510 3+1 (1280/400)
Cameron Wurf AUS 5335 3+0 (880/0)
Josh Amberger * AUS 4380 2+1
Javier Gomez ESP 3920 0+2 (0/920)
Callum Millward NZL 2580 2+2 (305/135)
Luke McKenzie AUS 2115 1+1
Braden Currie NZL 2065 1+2 (340/640)
Thiago Vinhal BRA 1900 1+0
Timothy O’Donnell USA 1400 1+2 (565/400)
Denis Chevrot FRA 735 1+1
David Plese SLO 675 1+2 (385/35)
Daniil Sapunov UKR 611 1+2 (70/1)
Urs Mueller SUI 575 2+0
Balazs Csoke HUN 405 1+0
Leigh Stabryla AUS 315 2+1
David Dellow AUS 220 0+1
David Mainwaring AUS 30 0+1
Clayton Fettell AUS 0 0+0
Jason Hall NZL 0 0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 0 0+0
Bryce McMaster NZL 0 0+0

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Sarah Crowley AUS 6480 1+0
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 2410 2+1
Jessie Donavan USA 2165 2+1
Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 2000 2+0
Anja Beranek GER 1860 1+2 (960/400)
Asa Lundstroem SWE 1780 2+1
Teresa Adam NZL 1600 1+0
Dede Griesbauer USA 1500 1+1
Angela Naeth * CAN 1425 0+2 (0/640)
Alise Selsmark AUS 1175 1+2 (960/75)
Liz Blatchford AUS 785 0+1
Amanda Wilson AUS 500 0+2 (0/220)
Mirinda Carfrae AUS 400 0+1

Ironman Texas 2018 (April 28th) – Seedings

IMTexasLogoApril 19th: The latest startlist has a few withdrawals: Marc Duelsen, Michael Alonso McKernan, Linsey Corbin, Angela Naeth, Rachel McBride, and Caroline Livesey. In addition, Susie Cheetham announced she won’t do the double just two weeks after Ironman South Africa.

April 20th: Joe Skipper is still on the “official list”, but he tweeted that he won’t be racing. There was also another new Ironman list with a few more withdrawals: Cameron Wurf, Philip Koutny, Gregory Close, Sam Long, Derek Garcia, and Andi Giglmayr.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19
2016 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:13:13 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:11:01
2017 Matt Hanson (USA) 07:52:44 Jodie Robertson (USA) 08:56:32

Last Year’s TOP 3

You can find the full results and my analysis of IM Texas 2017 here.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:46 04:13:53 02:42:07 07:52:44
2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:34 04:14:40 02:43:28 07:56:21
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:49:08 04:15:20 02:49:00 07:58:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Robertson USA 01:02:31 04:43:45 03:03:41 08:56:32
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:57:57 04:53:47 03:02:27 08:59:31
3 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 01:01:02 04:47:31 03:07:45 09:01:00

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:52:44 Matt Hanson 2017-04-22
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:01:14 Andrew Starykowicz 2017-04-22
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:48:52 Lauren Brandon 2017-04-22
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 13:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48 41 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48
2012 14:02 -00:50 15:23 03:36 27 12:51 -01:30 17:18 00:24
2013 07:03 -01:11 16:44 01:16 30 of 46 10:55 -01:24 17:06 00:41
2014 17:00 01:02 17:51 03:54 44 of 55 12:26 -00:47 17:17 01:30
2015 09:29 -01:19 19:29 -04:34 33 of 52 11:51 -00:54 17:44 00:17
2017 18:46 -00:40 22:40 05:25 42 of 56 13:00 -00:52 18:33 01:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

Expected Race Dynamics:

  1. Almost like in Kona, there might be one or two athletes off the front in the swim, but most of the favorites should be in a large group – except for Matt Hanson (2 min back), David Pleše (4 min), or Matt Russell (5 min).
  2. Once on the bike, Andrew Starykowicz will take the lead and put a lot of time between him and the rest – probably 15 to 20 minutes. Starky has the fastest IM bike split with a 4:01 from last year, this year he might push the pace for a 4-hour bike split.
  3. Defending champion Matt Hanson will try to bridge up to the big bike group. Early in the bike that group should include Frederik Van Lierde, Brent McMahon, Will Clarke and Tim Van Berkel, but it’s likely to break up in the second half of the bike.
  4. The best runners in the field are Matt Hanson, Brent McMahon and Will Clarke, and they should run around a 2:45, gaining 10-15 minutes on Andrew Starykowicz. I expect the win to be decided between these four athletes – either Starky manages a sub-3 run or the best runner of the day will become the new Champion.
# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 5 Brent McMahon CAN 08:03:00 08:14:00 00:49:17 04:19:42 05:13:59 02:49:01 64% +0% -36% (11) 7
2 1 Matt Hanson * USA 08:05:04 08:31:59 00:52:47 04:20:26 05:18:13 02:46:51 24% +33% -43% (13) 49
3 14 Will Clarke GBR 08:08:06 08:30:27 00:49:45 04:26:32 05:21:17 02:46:49 29% +45% -26% (7) 40
4 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:08:51 08:27:03 00:49:31 04:17:57 05:12:28 02:56:23 73% +5% -22% (25) 28
5 20 Joe Skipper GBR 08:09:18 08:25:41 00:54:21 04:17:45 05:17:06 02:52:12 62% +13% -25% (20) 25
6 19 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:10:34 08:32:07 00:49:12 04:33:19 05:27:30 02:43:04 25% +0% -75% (3) (51)
7 4 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:11:48 08:22:30 00:49:51 04:25:32 05:20:23 02:51:25 79% +12% -9% (23) 18
8 9 Matthew Russell USA 08:13:08 08:41:41 00:55:57 04:19:27 05:20:24 02:52:44 41% +31% -29% (44) (82)
9 42 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 08:13:35 08:38:30 00:57:35 04:11:35 05:14:10 02:59:25 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
10 7 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:14:45 08:25:29 00:50:31 04:26:45 05:22:16 02:52:29 75% +14% -11% (6) 24
11 10 David Plese SLO 08:16:28 08:38:57 00:54:35 04:20:58 05:20:33 02:55:55 76% +8% -16% (23) 72
12 25 Marc Duelsen GER 08:17:18 08:34:05 00:51:05 04:25:49 05:21:54 02:55:24 89% +0% -11% (11) 56
13 16 Paul Matthews AUS 08:17:33 08:50:31 00:48:31 04:25:44 05:19:15 02:58:18 26% +0% -74% (15) (110)
14 18 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:17:50 08:31:34 00:50:34 04:25:08 05:20:43 02:57:07 69% +14% -17% (17) 44
15 8 Cameron Wurf * AUS 08:18:14 08:32:00 00:51:48 04:09:53 05:06:41 03:11:33 45% +43% -12% (9) 50
16 40 Andreas Giglmayr AUT 08:18:14 08:48:37 00:48:44 04:17:21 05:11:05 03:07:09 38% +0% -62% (2) (101)
17 15 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:23:02 08:37:15 00:49:42 04:29:24 05:24:06 02:58:56 86% +0% -14% (15) 67
18 38 Michael Fox AUS 08:23:35 08:37:06 00:48:36 04:29:53 05:23:30 03:00:05 88% +12% -0% (6) 65
19 3 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:25:27 08:33:03 00:49:46 04:05:43 05:00:28 03:24:59 20% +48% -32% (10) 54
20 29 Johann Ackermann GER 08:25:43 08:43:21 00:49:40 04:23:27 05:18:08 03:07:35 64% +0% -36% (9) (85)
21 23 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:25:53 08:41:17 00:53:37 04:30:03 05:28:40 02:57:13 34% +18% -48% (28) 80
22 12 Justin Daerr USA 08:26:14 08:40:33 00:53:56 04:28:17 05:27:12 02:59:02 74% +3% -22% (34) 77
23 33 Per Bittner GER 08:26:19 08:44:57 00:50:59 04:28:06 05:24:05 03:02:14 49% +6% -45% (25) 87
24 30 Michael Alonso ESP 08:28:04 08:54:35 00:55:58 04:20:06 05:21:04 03:07:00 0% +42% -58% (3) (122)
25 17 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:29:20 08:59:29 00:50:00 04:35:46 05:30:46 02:58:34 62% +9% -29% (9) 144
26 26 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:29:51 08:50:07 00:54:04 04:31:51 05:30:56 02:58:55 55% +45% -0% (10) 106
27 11 Jozsef Major HUN 08:30:41 08:46:00 01:00:25 04:27:16 05:32:40 02:58:01 79% +13% -8% (35) 92
28 46 Matic Modic SLO 08:31:43 08:57:06 00:57:18 04:31:55 05:34:13 02:57:30 38% +10% -52% (13) 135
29 22 Philipp Koutny * SUI 08:33:07 08:56:30 00:52:19 04:25:45 05:23:05 03:10:02 46% +0% -54% (7) 132
30 24 Gregory Close USA 08:36:29 09:02:36 00:58:48 04:30:21 05:34:09 03:02:20 20% +35% -45% (11) 157
31 41 Tripp Hipple USA 08:37:25 08:58:36 00:54:06 04:28:35 05:27:41 03:09:44 70% +0% -30% (4) 140
32 28 Sam Long USA 08:41:48 08:57:30 00:57:29 04:30:39 05:33:09 03:08:39 77% +0% -23% (5) 137
33 39 Derek Garcia USA 08:42:29 09:00:55 00:54:52 04:30:57 05:30:49 03:11:40 52% +13% -35% (12) (151)
34 35 James Capparell USA 08:48:54 09:07:45 00:49:30 04:36:21 05:30:51 03:18:03 100% +0% -0% (3) 169
35 27 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:49:54 09:09:49 00:55:09 04:37:39 05:37:48 03:12:06 78% +21% -2% (21) 178
36 44 Colin Laughery USA 08:50:19 09:16:13 00:56:36 04:36:34 05:38:10 03:12:09 73% +27% -0% (9) 196
37 51 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:51:53 09:11:10 01:01:45 04:36:31 05:43:15 03:08:38 86% +7% -6% (70) 187
38 47 Jordan Monnink CAN 08:52:37 09:17:38 00:53:59 04:39:05 05:38:04 03:14:33 48% +0% -52% (2) (202)
39 21 Mikolaj Luft POL 08:56:14 09:17:02 00:55:30 04:30:00 05:30:31 03:25:43 69% +0% -31% (3) (199)
40 49 Seppe Odeyn BEL 08:56:17 09:23:21 01:08:06 04:44:48 05:57:54 02:58:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (219)
41 36 Alexander Chikin RUS 08:56:22 09:23:26 00:57:02 04:34:06 05:36:08 03:20:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (220)
42 31 Blake Becker USA 08:56:23 09:18:48 00:58:16 04:38:31 05:41:48 03:14:35 1% +61% -38% (23) 204
43 45 James Lubinski USA 08:58:32 09:18:50 01:04:45 04:41:47 05:51:32 03:07:00 61% +25% -14% (22) 205
44 37 Sean Donnelly GER 09:00:24 09:57:50 00:49:18 04:36:03 05:30:21 03:30:03 5% +6% -90% (4) (273)
45 34 Raymond Botelho USA 09:03:52 09:25:50 00:56:07 04:30:24 05:31:30 03:32:22 44% +13% -43% (17) 224
46 52 Matthew Shanks USA 09:13:42 09:37:00 01:00:50 04:55:39 06:01:29 03:12:13 56% +11% -33% (8) 251
47 43 Peter Kotland CZE 09:26:41 09:51:47 01:01:21 04:49:59 05:56:20 03:30:21 80% +12% -8% (27) 267
48 53 Ohad Sinai ISR 09:44:54 10:09:42 01:02:05 05:02:24 06:09:28 03:35:26 100% +0% -0% (2) 278
49 32 Max Biessmann USA 09:59:37 10:36:10 00:53:54 04:46:02 05:44:56 04:14:41 34% +0% -66% (2) (292)
50 50 Ignacio Rubio Gomez ESP 11:04:51 11:39:26 00:54:38 05:25:24 06:25:02 04:39:49 36% +0% -64% (3) (296)
48 Sebastian Najmowicz POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
54 Christopher Stock USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

Expected Race Dynamics:

  1. Lauren Brandon will go off the front in the swim, probably building a lead of around 2 minutes to Meredith Kessler and around 5 minutes to the other favorites.
  2. On the bike, Lauren should hold on to the lead for most of the bike. Towards the end, Meredith might close the gap. The biggest mover on the bike is likely Kim Morrison who may even take the T2 lead.
  3. Other athletes to look for on the bike: Michelle Vesterby & Dede Griesbauer with similar swim & run capabilities, they should be within 5 minutes of the lead in T2. In addition Jen Annett, Tine Deckers and Mel Hauschildt will try to use their bike strength to put themselves in a good position for the run.
  4. The strongest runners in the field are defending champion Jodie Robertson, Mel Hauschildt and Jocelyn McCauley. A marathon close to 3 hours could see them move onto the podium .. maybe even into the lead. Texas is usually won with a stellar run!
# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 66 Angela Naeth * CAN 08:55:58 09:39:17 00:59:44 04:43:35 05:48:19 03:07:39 16% +28% -56% (6) (41)
2 63 Meredith Kessler * USA 09:02:07 09:14:01 00:51:14 04:49:47 05:46:01 03:16:06 69% +6% -25% (27) (5)
3 69 Susie Cheetham * GBR 09:02:14 09:14:05 00:56:38 04:53:08 05:54:47 03:07:27 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
4 62 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:04:35 09:17:18 00:58:03 04:51:42 05:54:46 03:09:49 73% +8% -19% (6) 7
5 61 Jodie Robertson USA 09:05:03 09:44:16 01:03:04 04:48:33 05:56:38 03:08:25 17% +23% -60% (4) (50)
6 65 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:07:24 09:19:44 00:53:59 04:50:35 05:49:34 03:17:50 78% +1% -20% (24) 9
7 64 Linsey Corbin * USA 09:07:44 09:19:59 00:59:49 04:54:06 05:58:56 03:08:48 95% +5% -0% (24) 10
8 74 Jen Annett CAN 09:11:03 09:37:20 01:03:17 04:43:54 05:52:11 03:18:52 27% +64% -9% (7) 38
9 67 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:11:06 09:25:15 00:56:26 04:56:25 05:57:51 03:13:15 45% +41% -14% (9) 23
10 70 Tine Deckers BEL 09:11:34 09:25:11 00:59:49 04:48:42 05:53:30 03:18:04 75% +3% -22% (23) 22
11 72 Lauren Brandon USA 09:16:00 09:32:42 00:49:05 04:53:49 05:47:54 03:28:06 62% +0% -38% (5) 32
12 73 Annah Watkinson * ZAF 09:23:23 09:48:01 01:00:23 04:56:41 06:02:04 03:21:19 58% +0% -42% (6) 56
13 76 Rachel McBride * CAN 09:23:39 09:41:52 00:54:27 04:47:38 05:47:06 03:36:33 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
14 71 Kimberley Morrison GBR 09:23:49 09:52:16 00:55:28 04:44:42 05:45:10 03:38:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (64)
15 88 Sara Svensk SWE 09:25:29 09:59:57 01:01:54 05:06:23 06:13:17 03:12:12 37% +0% -63% (2) (74)
16 77 Lesley Smith USA 09:25:31 09:54:03 00:58:30 05:10:09 06:13:39 03:11:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (68)
17 75 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:26:25 09:39:24 01:01:27 04:58:33 06:04:59 03:21:26 78% +10% -12% (14) 42
18 68 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:26:51 09:47:22 00:54:03 04:51:57 05:51:00 03:35:51 43% +13% -44% (28) 53
19 85 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:31:33 10:08:18 01:01:32 04:58:43 06:05:15 03:26:18 51% +14% -35% (10) 93
20 87 Darbi Roberts USA 09:37:06 10:06:57 00:55:32 05:06:41 06:07:14 03:29:52 32% +0% -68% (10) (90)
21 78 Kelly Fillnow USA 09:40:43 10:04:09 01:06:28 05:07:55 06:19:23 03:21:20 82% +5% -13% (15) 83
22 84 Helena Kotopulu CZE 09:43:53 10:13:21 01:12:17 05:07:41 06:24:58 03:18:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
23 86 Ashley Paulson * USA 09:43:55 10:06:52 01:14:27 05:13:53 06:33:20 03:10:35 72% +16% -12% (8) 89
24 89 Amanda Wendorff USA 09:49:35 10:15:00 01:00:06 05:03:42 06:08:48 03:40:47 76% +0% -24% (3) (107)
25 79 Anne Basso FRA 09:54:38 10:14:51 00:59:08 05:14:28 06:18:36 03:36:02 65% +5% -30% (19) 106
26 89 Kimberly Goodell USA 09:56:49 10:26:56 01:04:13 05:20:40 06:29:52 03:26:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (122)
27 82 Robyn Hardage CAN 09:56:56 10:21:12 01:05:11 05:14:25 06:24:37 03:32:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (114)
28 83 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:06:21 10:33:25 01:02:50 05:32:00 06:39:51 03:26:30 42% +0% -58% (10) 131
29 81 Caroline Gregory USA 10:09:10 10:42:50 00:58:44 05:27:05 06:30:49 03:38:21 51% +4% -45% (15) 139

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Matt Hanson: 33% (2-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 15% (5-1)
  • Will Clarke: 10% (9-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde: 8% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Even though I had left Susie Cheetham and Linsey Corbin out of my original odds, there have been a few more high-level withdrawals, with significant changes of the winning odds on the female side:

  • Angela Naeth: 46% (1-1)
  • Jodie Robertson: 16% (5-1) 31% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 14% (6-1) 25% (3-1)
  • Jocelyn McCauley: 7% (13-1) 14% (6-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1) 12% (7-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 8% (12-1)
  • Jen Annett: 5% (20-1)

Top Seeds for 70.3 California & 70.3 Texas

Oceanside70.3 California on April 7, 2018

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:25:20 02:05:42 01:14:06 03:50:04
2 Chris Leiferman USA 00:25:35 02:10:31 01:12:12 03:53:15
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:25:47 02:14:08 01:13:08 03:57:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:25:01 02:21:40 01:22:16 04:14:18
2 Ellie Salthouse AUS 00:25:39 02:27:32 01:23:59 04:23:21
3 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:26:15 02:26:31 01:26:55 04:25:22

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 California is a P-750 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Top Male Seeds

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Overall
1 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:49:03 03:49:39 00:26:16 02:06:06 02:35:51 01:13:12 3
2 2 Jan Frodeno GER 03:49:22 03:47:10 00:22:49 02:11:22 02:37:40 01:11:42 1
3 6 Sam Appleton AUS 03:53:21 03:55:26 00:23:25 02:10:16 02:37:10 01:16:11 11
4 3 Tim Reed AUS 03:54:30 03:55:21 00:23:17 02:13:47 02:40:34 01:13:56 10
5 8 Jesse Thomas USA 03:56:20 03:57:34 00:25:41 02:11:42 02:40:52 01:15:28 27
6 4 Chris Leiferman USA 03:56:31 04:04:53 00:25:48 02:12:12 02:41:30 01:15:01 (90)
7 12 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 03:56:33 03:58:31 00:23:30 02:13:34 02:40:34 01:15:59 34
8 7 Joe Gambles AUS 03:56:40 03:56:08 00:24:11 02:12:14 02:39:55 01:16:45 15
9 10 David McNamee GBR 03:58:03 03:58:07 00:23:37 02:15:56 02:43:03 01:15:00 31
10 9 Igor Amorelli BRA 03:58:18 03:58:40 00:23:36 02:10:01 02:37:07 01:21:11 37

Top Female Seeds

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Overall
1 55 Anne Haug GER 04:13:30 04:15:53 00:26:04 02:26:37 02:56:11 01:17:19 2
2 51 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:15:26 04:18:35 00:24:50 02:22:24 02:50:44 01:24:42 3
3 52 Heather Jackson USA 04:21:21 04:23:59 00:27:53 02:25:57 02:57:19 01:24:02 9
4 56 Sarah True USA 04:24:35 04:27:33 00:25:24 02:33:03 03:01:56 01:22:39 18
5 53 Jeanni Seymour ZAF 04:24:42 04:27:04 00:26:24 02:30:36 03:00:30 01:24:12 15
6 64 Paula Findlay CAN 04:27:29 04:35:02 00:26:22 02:35:35 03:05:26 01:22:03 (59)
7 54 Carrie Lester AUS 04:28:19 04:28:36 00:26:42 02:28:36 02:58:48 01:29:31 24
8 58 Jennifer Spieldenner USA 04:29:11 04:33:19 00:25:02 02:32:42 03:01:14 01:27:57 49
9 57 Kelsey Withrow USA 04:32:19 04:38:52 00:25:43 02:31:43 03:00:56 01:31:23 81
10 59 Lisa Roberts USA 04:35:48 04:36:25 00:31:45 02:35:50 03:11:05 01:24:43 68

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 52% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno: 32% (2-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 8% (11-1)
  • Tim Reed: 5% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Holly Lawrence: 52% (1-1)
  • Anne Haug: 38% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 6% (15-1)
  • Jeanni Seymour: 3% (38-1)

703Texas70.3 Texas on April 8, 2018

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mauricio Mendez Cruz MEX 00:24:41 02:05:50 01:12:39 03:45:35
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:24:36 02:02:06 01:17:15 03:46:19
3 Rodolphe Von Berg USA 00:24:39 02:05:53 01:16:17 03:49:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kimberley Morrison GBR 00:28:34 02:10:38 01:33:21 04:15:40
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:28:43 02:22:19 01:24:05 04:18:00
3 Lauren Brandon USA 00:25:31 02:20:36 01:31:25 04:20:28

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 Texas is a P-500 race. It has a total prize purse of 30.000 US$.

Top Male Seeds

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 1 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:42:01 03:50:20 00:26:00 01:58:50 02:28:20 01:13:41 4
2 9 Ben Kanute USA 03:42:01 03:53:10 00:23:33 01:59:45 02:26:47 01:15:14 (7)
3 5 Michael Weiss AUT 03:46:38 03:58:13 00:28:02 02:04:27 02:36:00 01:10:38 32
4 12 Cody Beals CAN 03:47:29 03:59:46 00:26:17 02:03:56 02:33:43 01:13:46 46
5 3 Andrew Starykowicz USA 03:47:36 03:58:44 00:24:32 01:58:07 02:26:08 01:21:28 38
6 15 Ivan Tutukin RUS 03:49:16 04:01:42 00:24:50 02:08:40 02:37:01 01:12:15 63
7 14 Matt Hanson USA 03:49:32 03:59:25 00:26:30 02:07:02 02:37:02 01:12:30 42
8 28 Marc Duelsen GER 03:49:32 04:03:52 00:26:14 02:03:09 02:32:53 01:16:39 77
9 4 Matthew Russell USA 03:50:02 04:01:33 00:27:13 02:01:31 02:32:13 01:17:49 61
10 44 Raul Tejada GTM 03:50:34 04:04:09 00:27:04 02:05:37 02:36:10 01:14:24 84

Top Female Seeds

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 53 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 04:09:51 04:19:37 00:29:05 02:16:01 02:48:36 01:21:15 4
2 55 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:10:52 04:20:55 00:27:47 02:16:23 02:47:40 01:23:12 5
3 57 Angela Naeth CAN 04:12:00 04:22:46 00:29:13 02:15:07 02:47:49 01:24:11 7
4 52 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 04:18:17 04:30:36 00:28:36 02:22:56 02:55:02 01:23:15 34
5 51 Kimberley Morrison GBR 04:18:23 04:34:53 00:27:56 02:14:02 02:45:27 01:32:56 56
6 62 Jodie Robertson USA 04:19:05 04:33:02 00:32:39 02:19:44 02:55:53 01:23:12 47
7 59 Haley Chura USA 04:19:19 04:30:07 00:25:12 02:23:47 02:52:28 01:26:51 32
8 56 Linsey Corbin USA 04:19:30 04:30:56 00:29:32 02:20:57 02:53:59 01:25:31 36
9 72 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:20:12 04:33:56 00:29:37 02:23:34 02:56:41 01:23:31 52
10 58 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 04:25:21 04:46:48 00:27:38 02:21:11 02:52:18 01:33:03 154

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Sebastian Kienle: 39% (2-1)
  • Ben Kanute: 26% (3-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 11% (8-1)
  • Cody Beals: 6% (15-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Melissa Hauschildt: 47% (1-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 23% (3-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 17% (5-1)
  • Kimberley Morrison: 7% (13-1)
  • Haley Chura: 2% (60-1)

Ironman South Africa 2018 (Apr 15th) – Seedings

Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.

Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.

Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!

Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.

IMSA_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:14 04:22:33 02:42:52 07:58:40
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:05 04:22:31 02:43:43 07:59:30
3 David McNamee GBR 00:49:09 04:28:45 02:45:36 08:07:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:48 04:50:50 02:57:27 08:47:02
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:55:29 04:53:03 02:59:10 08:52:26
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:53:56 04:57:43 03:08:36 09:04:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Zelenkova 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21 28 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21
2007 01:16 -08:52 03:31 00:49 33 01:26 -06:52 00:49 00:14
2008 15:32 01:13 11:14 04:15 36 06:08 -04:11 04:18 01:34
2009 17:18 02:09 10:45 -01:03 28 08:55 -02:36 05:54 00:55
2010 09:39 -00:15 08:15 01:15 34 09:04 -02:08 06:23 00:59
2011 15:31 00:13 14:40 01:56 36 10:08 -01:44 07:45 01:08
2012 -11:59 -08:35 -08:23 01:54 28 06:59 -02:43 05:27 01:15
2013 06:23 -01:17 11:20 03:07 36 of 44 06:54 -02:32 06:11 01:29
2014 -12:13 -01:05 -08:46 -02:56 29 of 40 04:47 -02:22 04:32 00:59
2015 -13:45 -00:47 -10:09 -00:57 49 of 61 02:56 -02:13 03:04 00:48
2016 03:32 -02:43 09:06 01:34 42 of 53 02:59 -02:16 03:37 00:52
2017 08:21 -00:05 08:49 01:36 43 of 63 03:26 -02:05 04:03 00:56

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Racetime Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male Out of Water 00:48 07:18
First Female Out of Water 00:49 07:24
First Male End of Bike 05:17 11:47
First Female End of Bike 05:52 12:27
Male Winner 08:08 14:38
Female Winner 09:02 15:37

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
  • no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 1 Ben Hoffman USA 08:07:57 08:17:42 00:50:31 04:25:44 05:21:15 02:46:42 43% +47% -9% (20) 9
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:13 08:20:37 00:50:30 04:26:22 05:21:52 02:53:21 45% +35% -19% (26) 14
3 17 Maurice Clavel GER 08:17:19 08:38:13 00:50:21 04:25:08 05:20:29 02:56:50 47% +0% -53% (2) (70)
4 5 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:21:30 08:25:10 00:52:39 04:33:53 05:31:31 02:49:59 80% +0% -20% (6) (22)
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:22:45 08:28:02 00:54:05 04:31:45 05:30:51 02:51:54 61% +0% -38% (34) 32
6 2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:49 08:31:55 00:51:03 04:33:43 05:29:47 02:53:02 65% +12% -22% (14) 47
7 18 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:40 08:27:28 00:53:21 04:38:56 05:37:17 02:48:23 73% +0% -27% (13) 30
8 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:18 08:28:58 00:50:31 04:29:49 05:25:20 03:00:58 85% +0% -15% (33) 34
9 6 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:27:18 08:32:00 00:51:54 04:20:31 05:17:25 03:09:53 45% +43% -12% (9) 49
10 27 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:28:19 08:31:38 00:50:30 04:31:09 05:26:39 03:01:40 100% +0% -0% (3) 45
11 12 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:28:55 08:45:47 00:49:08 04:38:37 05:32:45 02:56:10 82% +0% -18% (3) (90)
12 32 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:29:43 08:34:05 00:51:01 04:30:56 05:26:57 03:02:46 77% +0% -23% (4) 55
13 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:32:44 08:35:28 00:48:22 04:28:32 05:21:54 03:10:50 57% +27% -15% (4) 61
14 11 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:21 08:41:20 00:51:48 04:36:25 05:33:14 03:00:07 60% +1% -40% (22) 80
15 9 Michael Raelert GER 08:33:41 08:54:08 00:49:50 04:40:32 05:35:21 02:58:20 31% +0% -69% (4) (120)
16 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:35:41 08:49:52 00:49:49 04:45:52 05:40:41 02:55:00 34% +27% -39% (10) 104
17 20 Pedro Gomes POR 08:37:50 08:43:05 00:53:49 04:44:12 05:43:01 02:54:49 57% +1% -43% (30) 83
18 33 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:53 08:49:21 00:55:58 04:38:17 05:39:15 03:01:38 66% +6% -28% (20) 102
19 24 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:42:26 08:56:30 00:52:51 04:36:30 05:34:22 03:08:04 46% +0% -54% (7) 131
20 31 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:26 08:51:56 00:57:17 04:45:22 05:47:39 02:55:47 68% +0% -32% (12) 113
21 34 Darby Thomas FIN 08:48:38 09:01:05 01:01:14 04:41:43 05:47:57 03:00:41 53% +0% -47% (12) 153
22 28 Hans Muehlbauer GER 09:09:16 09:23:25 00:54:07 05:05:33 06:04:40 03:04:36 45% +0% -55% (10) (220)
23 10 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:16:31 09:29:52 00:57:10 04:57:10 05:59:20 03:17:11 76% +24% -0% (6) (234)
24 21 Christian Jais GER 09:17:05 09:40:35 00:58:45 04:48:30 05:52:15 03:24:50 18% +31% -51% (3) (258)
25 16 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:19:59 09:56:46 01:06:58 04:54:09 06:06:07 03:13:52 11% +0% -89% (3) (273)
26 19 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 10:29:54 11:05:02 01:16:02 05:12:41 06:33:42 03:56:12 12% +21% -67% (5) (295)
27 23 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:51:18 11:11:58 01:11:38 05:38:42 06:55:20 03:55:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
14 Reece Barclay GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Bruno Joaquim BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Philippe Lamberty LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Sebastian Norberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 42 Lucy Charles GBR 09:01:43 09:11:18 00:49:24 04:57:59 05:52:23 03:09:20 21% +79% -0% (3) 4
2 41 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:09:57 09:14:05 00:56:40 05:03:28 06:05:09 03:04:48 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
3 49 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:15:58 09:19:44 00:54:21 05:01:25 06:00:46 03:15:12 78% +1% -20% (24) 8
4 44 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:40 09:19:59 01:00:21 05:05:40 06:11:01 03:06:39 95% +5% -0% (24) 9
5 63 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:19:55 09:22:13 01:01:00 05:05:09 06:11:09 03:08:46 100% +0% -0% (3) 17
6 46 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:18 09:43:02 00:55:44 05:16:45 06:17:29 03:11:49 42% +38% -20% (20) 49
7 45 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:33 09:40:34 01:03:11 05:14:29 06:22:40 03:09:53 70% +18% -12% (10) 46
8 59 Rachel McBride CAN 09:33:53 09:41:52 00:55:02 04:59:25 05:59:28 03:34:25 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
9 51 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:34:21 09:48:01 01:01:00 05:10:37 06:16:36 03:17:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 57
10 47 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:36:25 09:54:15 01:01:42 05:08:09 06:14:51 03:21:34 69% +0% -31% (4) 69
11 53 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:42:08 09:49:02 00:57:36 05:23:14 06:25:50 03:16:18 74% +19% -8% (15) 61
12 58 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:42:28 10:20:29 00:57:34 05:16:41 06:19:15 03:23:13 20% +7% -73% (11) (115)
13 48 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:42:35 09:53:30 01:13:07 05:10:58 06:29:05 03:13:30 77% +23% -0% (17) 67
14 57 Martina Kunz SUI 09:43:07 09:55:40 01:04:41 05:10:42 06:20:23 03:22:44 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 60 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:45:11 09:54:25 01:00:09 05:23:14 06:28:23 03:16:48 72% +16% -12% (8) 70
16 55 Manon Genet FRA 09:48:57 10:00:17 01:00:20 05:08:17 06:13:37 03:35:20 27% +37% -35% (3) (76)
17 56 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:49:20 10:06:37 01:04:04 05:12:30 06:21:34 03:27:46 34% +32% -34% (7) 90
18 62 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 09:57:48 10:15:09 01:12:49 05:22:52 06:40:42 03:17:06 57% +18% -24% (10) 109
19 54 Camille Donat FRA 10:13:45 10:33:13 00:53:28 05:30:11 06:28:40 03:45:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
20 61 Charlotte Morel FRA 10:31:25 10:51:28 00:56:38 05:16:24 06:18:01 04:13:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
21 52 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 10:43:15 11:04:27 01:05:57 05:44:27 06:55:25 03:47:50 46% +54% -0% (2) (148)
43 Emma Pallant GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
50 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.

  • Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.

  • Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)

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