IM Coeur d’Alene 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:37:05 08:40:43 36
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:42:36 08:46:16 59
3 Chris Lieto USA 08:47:20 08:51:02 91
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:54:55 08:58:41 126
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:55:22 08:59:08 128
6 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:35 09:05:23 165
7 Joel Jameson GBR 09:02:30 09:06:19 173
8 Ian Mikelson USA 09:03:40 09:07:29 179
9 Guy Crawford AUS 09:08:41 09:12:32 215
10 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:10:09 09:14:01 229
11 Brendan Halpin USA 09:25:13 09:29:11 348
12 Chris Boudreaux   09:30:22 09:34:23 385
13 Lewis Elliot USA 09:30:52 09:34:53 388
14 Blake Becker USA 09:52:27 09:56:37 534
15 Jim Lubinski USA 10:14:15 10:18:34 671
16 Josh Hadway   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kathleen Calkins   09:22:36 09:26:33 10
2 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:25:41 09:29:40 15
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:27 09:36:28 27
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:52:09 09:56:19 75
5 Heather Gollnick USA 09:52:34 09:56:44 76
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:53:15 09:57:25 80
7 Whitney Garcia   09:57:27 10:01:39 89
8 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:52 10:05:05 100
9 Christie Sym AUS 10:01:15 10:05:29 102
10 Haley Cooper USA 10:11:19 10:15:37 144
11 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:13:17 10:17:36 149
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 11:03:02 11:07:42 254
13 Beth Shutt   n/a unrated n/a
14 Trish Deim   n/a unrated n/a
15 Stephanie Ossenbrink   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Victor Zyemtsev (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:14:36 08:27:01 08:40:43 3
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:28 08:40:26 08:45:36 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:25:27 08:28:28 08:47:20 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 08:43:56 08:47:40 08:53:40 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:27 09:18:17 08:55:34 41
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:33:32 08:35:36 08:47:42 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:26 09:34:03 08:53:18 59
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:38:18 08:31:28 08:28:05 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:23:29 08:23:29 08:23:29 1

Results for Timothy O’Donnell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:59:36 09:13:09 08:46:16 28
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:09:50 08:15:14 08:15:14 2

Results for Chris Lieto (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:10:26 09:11:44 08:51:02 29
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:35:00 09:47:49 08:45:38 29
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:25:51 08:26:47 08:29:59 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:22:56 08:18:47 08:31:00 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:19:25 08:25:51 08:34:54 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:57:56 08:56:15 08:37:52 26
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:25:49 08:25:40 08:29:19 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:27:37 08:23:46 08:31:16 9
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:41:34 08:41:03 08:36:23 18
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:33:32 08:31:32 08:31:32 1

Results for Anton Blokhin (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:30:57 08:57:20 08:58:41 7
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:43:17 09:00:30 09:00:30 12

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:03 08:59:08 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:59:14 08:59:14 13

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 08:42:50 08:55:54 09:05:23 9
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:07 09:07:11 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:05 09:12:04 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:45 09:18:24 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:37 09:22:40 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:09:05 09:20:18 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:30 09:27:05 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:12 09:33:12 13

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:59:28 09:08:22 09:06:19 23
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:35:31 08:57:34 09:05:13 11
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:01:48 08:57:11 09:12:32 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 10:48:13 10:32:42 10:32:42 12

Results for Ian Mikelson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:48:40 08:49:55 09:07:29 24
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:12:42 09:14:50 09:12:17 6
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:41:18 08:52:55 09:11:25 8
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:10:38 09:12:58 09:18:45 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:15:58 09:20:06 09:22:13 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:20:07 09:25:07 09:25:07 12

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:10:50 09:19:55 09:12:32 13
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:50:28 09:02:41 09:02:41 9

Results for Bryan Rhodes (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:23:24 09:27:49 09:14:01 15
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:18:40 10:23:16 09:10:08 25
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:35 08:51:55 08:51:09 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:30:12 08:36:43 08:51:01 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:26:52 08:42:02 08:54:06 3
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:07 09:42:29 08:56:34 21
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:38 08:48:45 08:45:33 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:13 08:55:08 08:44:36 36
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:00:18 08:53:10 08:41:11 6
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:34:25 08:36:39 08:35:58 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 08:42:11 08:29:41 08:35:35 1
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:42:01 08:42:01 08:42:01 3

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:04:36 09:18:16 09:29:11 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:17:13 09:17:22 09:33:20 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:19 09:40:11 09:42:14 11
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:36:40 09:41:17 09:44:30 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:48:09 09:50:31 09:50:31 20

Results for Chris Boudreaux ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:20:19 09:34:23 09:34:23 36

Results for Lewis Elliot (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:38:13 08:51:14 09:34:53 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:51:45 09:57:48 09:44:27 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:10:54 09:23:11 09:41:13 21
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:46:20 10:56:23 09:45:51 28
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:00:14 09:10:03 09:23:29 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:22:43 09:26:43 09:28:04 10
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:29:08 09:33:19 09:28:27 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:41:31 09:41:21 09:26:35 54
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:53:51 08:56:59 09:19:12 8
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:10 09:45:23 09:36:12 25
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:23:58 09:23:58 09:23:58 14

Results for Blake Becker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:44:24 10:44:34 09:56:37 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:05:04 09:17:13 09:46:57 17
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:55:44 08:58:00 09:52:36 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:39:16 09:57:07 10:04:35 17
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:01:56 10:00:01 10:06:08 17
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:12 10:33:13 10:07:39 65
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:16:55 10:17:33 10:01:38 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:26:30 09:30:32 09:56:55 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:38:15 09:37:15 10:07:08 16
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:53:12 09:56:41 10:20:29 19
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:35:27 10:47:16 10:36:12 34
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 10:37:51 10:20:49 10:20:49 20

Results for Jim Lubinski (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:49:07 10:51:52 10:18:34 19
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:55:30 10:02:31 09:57:48 12
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:47:36 09:52:19 09:52:19 25

Results for Josh Hadway ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kathleen Calkins ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:40 09:26:33 09:26:33 7

Results for Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:17:56 09:19:15 09:29:40 8
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:19:03 09:21:13 09:31:38 1
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:30:33 09:30:59 09:33:53 1
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:19:10 09:31:38 09:34:37 5
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:17:17 09:25:57 09:35:29 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:35:26 09:31:05 09:39:00 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:34:24 09:39:32 09:42:59 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:39:51 09:47:15 09:45:13 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:38:58 09:43:05 09:43:05 1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:12:59 09:31:12 09:36:28 1
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:48 09:37:20 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:50:54 09:41:18 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:41:54 09:39:28 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:23 09:38:55 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:05:09 09:41:32 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:22:23 09:34:52 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:29:54 09:39:34 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:32 09:44:56 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:47:39 09:47:39 7

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2012-05-27 09:35:08 09:57:07 09:56:19 4
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:56:29 10:11:27 09:56:11 6
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:18:03 09:32:04 09:53:35 8
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:46:56 09:51:32 09:57:57 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:17 09:59:27 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:03 09:52:10 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:04:17 09:51:02 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:48:57 09:48:56 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:08:03 09:48:55 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:35 09:44:56 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:45:27 09:45:38 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:35:51 09:45:41 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:44:49 09:48:47 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:15:33 09:23:17 09:50:31 2
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:37 10:07:18 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:01:34 10:01:34 6

Results for Heather Gollnick (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:32:09 10:32:19 09:56:44 7
IM France 2011-06-26 10:18:13 10:22:57 09:50:59 8
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:22:13 09:39:32 09:45:16 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:58 09:59:58 09:45:59 24
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:31:42 09:45:40 09:44:01 3
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:56:55 09:52:59 09:43:47 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:50:34 09:54:46 09:42:34 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:32:07 09:36:19 09:40:48 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:40:48 09:40:38 09:41:31 11
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:23:25 09:25:12 09:41:39 1
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:36:40 09:40:03 09:44:36 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:28:16 09:32:44 09:45:28 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:43:42 09:39:17 09:48:23 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:36:39 09:37:10 09:50:44 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:33:25 09:34:36 09:54:56 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:59:55 09:59:19 10:03:17 23
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:01:47 09:56:48 10:05:30 3
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:14:57 10:14:57 10:14:57 6

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:43:37 09:53:15 09:57:25 6
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:39:44 09:47:14 09:58:00 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:01 09:41:29 09:59:32 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:19:44 09:32:37 10:02:12 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:20:40 10:06:55 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 09:58:04 10:04:26 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:19:45 10:17:37 10:05:44 5
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:25:29 10:02:53 7
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:45:53 10:03:18 09:56:15 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:27:45 09:53:37 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:00:46 10:01:09 24
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:37:00 09:40:53 10:01:18 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:27:05 09:34:58 10:10:15 4
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:51:14 10:46:29 10:33:29 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:16:40 10:16:40 2

Results for Whitney Garcia ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:40:22 09:54:57 10:01:39 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:03:53 10:04:02 10:05:42 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:04:29 10:07:57 11:13:09 4
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 12:25:53 12:34:00 12:34:00 11

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:21:02 10:22:30 10:05:05 22
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:40:28 09:51:28 09:58:50 2
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:56:21 09:58:39 10:02:44 4
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:06:36 10:07:04 10:07:04 2

Results for Christie Sym (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 09:55:56 10:10:50 10:05:29 7
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:49:09 09:58:24 10:03:23 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:36:57 10:39:20 10:05:30 2
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:41:30 09:50:33 09:44:38 5
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:20:41 09:37:21 09:37:21 2

Results for Haley Cooper (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:34:41 10:39:40 10:15:37 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:56:21 10:02:27 10:10:44 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:42:02 09:48:16 10:12:43 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:23:19 10:18:10 10:18:04 33
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:53:35 09:58:21 10:18:03 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:51:11 09:56:28 10:23:16 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:45:59 09:53:32 10:32:16 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:23:33 11:21:25 11:04:08 41
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:08:04 10:12:23 10:55:59 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 10:42:57 10:45:32 11:29:11 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:26:37 12:27:17 12:27:17 24

Results for Rachel Kiers (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:16:33 10:30:18 10:17:36 14
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:06:22 10:15:48 10:14:59 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:03:48 10:10:16 10:14:47 8
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:45:26 09:56:05 10:16:07 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:45:04 10:50:14 10:22:41 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:53:43 09:59:01 10:10:28 5
IM Canada 2008-08-24 10:04:47 10:12:30 10:18:46 9
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:25:05 10:27:06 10:27:06 12

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 11:24:12 11:31:01 11:07:42 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:00 11:00:17 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:14 10:59:45 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:35 11:01:45 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:32:51 11:07:01 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:41 11:18:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:02:01 11:17:30 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:58:21 11:29:01 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Beth Shutt ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Trish Deim ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Stephanie Ossenbrink ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Regensburg is one of the younger Ironman races. the first time it was held in 2010. The first finisher Faris Al-Sultan posted a time of 8:13:37 which is still the course record. Last year’s winners were Markus Fachbach in 8:29:16 and Mary-Beth Ellis in course record time of 9:18:55. The race used to be a bit later in the year (it was held in August), now it is at a better point in the year to validate the requirement of an Ironman during the year for a Kona spot. Regensburg is a pretty quick course (course rating of 10:04, similar to Texas and Cozumel – the move to June should make the course probably even quicker), but it is only a 1.000 points race.

Male Participants

On the men’s side, Dirk Bockel is the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

The only real competition he faces does not come from second.ranked Petr Vabrousek (who will no doubt finish with a strong run and under 9 hours), but from Michael Raelert who will start his first full Ironman. It is next to impossible to predict how he will finish – and all my formulas won’t help as he hasn’t posted an Ironman time yet. One thing is obvious: If he finishes, he will be quicker than his brother Andreas last year who jogged it in and finished with a 10:21 just to finish and validate his Kona slot. But what is possible for him? Andreas Raelert won his first Ironman race (Arizona 2008) with a time of 8:14. Arizona is a little bit slower than Regensburg, so if Michael manages a similar performance, he is just around the course record time of Faris and very close to Dirk Bockel’s potential.

Female Participants

The female field consists of just two names:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Hopefully, some additional athletes are going to start – after all it will be an almost guaranteed pay day!

IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Dirk Bockel (LUX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:12:58 08:14:08 08:25:45 4
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:21:23 08:37:06 08:30:18 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:22:59 08:23:55 08:27:24 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:29:55 08:25:42 08:29:54 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:27:12 08:34:54 08:34:54 3

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 08:40:00 08:45:11 08:57:18 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:07:30 09:02:48 08:57:50 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:02 08:57:36 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:50 08:57:19 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:35 08:58:13 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:38 08:57:39 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:00 08:58:18 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:42 08:57:31 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:37 08:58:07 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:17 08:57:31 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:52 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:52 08:57:39 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:12 08:56:09 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:45:58 08:56:25 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:26 08:56:56 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:47:21 08:56:55 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:28 08:57:24 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:35 08:57:45 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:05:34 08:58:02 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:55 08:57:37 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:13:06 08:57:27 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:10 08:56:37 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:24 08:57:08 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:41 08:55:55 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:10:48 08:55:17 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:35:38 08:54:21 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:49:56 08:55:32 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:29 08:55:54 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:24 08:56:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:42 08:56:52 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:42:09 08:58:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:03:00 08:59:34 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:53:43 08:59:18 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:43 08:59:44 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:02:55 08:59:15 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:11 08:58:55 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:13 08:57:32 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:37 08:56:03 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:09:02 08:57:17 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:16 08:56:01 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 11:00:05 08:50:31 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:38 08:50:31 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:18 08:52:14 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:45:03 08:52:21 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:31 08:53:28 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:35 08:54:30 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:02 08:52:17 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:59 08:51:30 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Flo Kriegl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:44:46 08:57:57 08:57:57 21

Results for Andreas Wolpert (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:13:57 09:14:06 09:17:39 5
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:44:37 09:11:42 09:18:40 11
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:53:53 09:12:45 09:21:19 14
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:23:15 09:20:22 09:24:46 14
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:56:33 09:18:05 09:26:33 20
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:37:22 09:34:45 09:30:31 17
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:43 09:20:32 09:27:03 20
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:53:49 09:37:57 09:37:57 14

Results for Rene Vallant (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:56:50 09:08:54 09:26:06 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:18 09:33:33 09:34:45 23
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:20:08 09:34:42 09:35:17 15
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:22:48 09:30:03 09:35:41 30
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:02:55 10:07:18 09:42:47 29
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:15:43 09:15:43 09:15:43 23

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:03:41 09:14:55 09:28:49 7
IM France 2010-06-27 14:16:23 14:38:02 09:42:44 19
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:28:35 09:25:29 09:42:44 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:06:40 10:05:06 12:28:41 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 14:00:55 14:22:07 14:24:48 25
IM France 2006-06-24 14:15:35 14:28:22 14:28:22 23

Results for Craig Twigg (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:10:48 09:04:53 09:32:05 7
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:10:01 09:22:21 09:52:12 16
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:21:02 10:28:36 10:28:36 9

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 10:22:11 10:11:55 09:50:20 15
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:09:08 09:21:28 09:47:49 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:34:50 09:46:33 09:51:11 24
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:21:00 09:51:52 33
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:34:28 09:47:54 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:40:45 09:44:05 09:49:53 11
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:11:55 09:20:06 09:50:52 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:47:46 09:57:03 30
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:14:47 09:59:20 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:20:50 09:54:33 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:48 10:05:51 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:36 10:06:21 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:08:57 10:26:38 31
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:58:11 10:58:11 34

Results for Jens Kaiser ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Tomas Mika ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Joan Gómez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Florian Kratz ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Raelert ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Vincent Rieß ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Monika Stadlmann (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 10:37:06 10:50:16 10:45:42 6
IM Austria 2011-07-03 09:53:56 10:24:36 10:44:24 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 11:45:45 12:07:40 10:51:58 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:52:26 10:50:24 10:31:13 37
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:27 10:33:48 10:25:44 5
IM France 2008-06-22 10:36:13 10:44:07 10:22:37 7
IM Austria 2007-07-08 10:02:11 10:14:44 10:10:23 10
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:58:05 10:11:01 10:07:05 12
IM Austria 2005-07-03 10:01:46 10:01:46 10:01:46 7

Results for Heidi Sessner ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Cairns 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Compared to last year’s Challenge version (8:29), IM Cairns was a little bit slower (5:23), but it was still a medium-fast race.

Male Results

David Dellow posted the fastest run to win his first IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 David Dellow AUS 00:47:56 04:33:45 02:48:26 08:15:04 08:23:51
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:46 04:30:48 02:56:06 08:22:21 08:23:39
3 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 00:50:37 04:41:29 02:52:32 08:29:36 08:48:14
4 Matty White AUS 00:50:44 04:31:03 03:04:48 08:31:19 08:50:16
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:54:52 04:36:10 03:02:52 08:40:00 08:52:28
6 Leon Griffin AUS 00:50:43 04:31:01 03:13:55 08:40:41 08:58:32
7 Jason Shortis AUS 00:54:10 04:46:45 03:06:58 08:53:25 08:50:52
8 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:01:23 09:02:01 09:12:51
9 Chris McCormack AUS 00:50:05 04:58:10 03:11:10 09:05:12 08:13:46
10 Mitchell Anderson AUS 00:54:45 04:35:09 03:34:39 09:10:18 08:41:49
11 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:52 04:33:54 03:44:11 09:10:18 08:40:05
12 Finnbar Crennan AUS 00:59:27 04:50:52 03:37:05 09:33:16 09:18:16
13 Justin Granger AUS 00:54:55 05:05:46 03:41:25 09:47:42 09:11:27
14 Aaron Farlow AUS 00:50:42 04:41:11 04:39:42 10:17:00 08:38:03

Cameron Brown had another solid race (again improving his rating), even if his result was not quite as spectacular as in Melbourne. He’s got another big race coming up (he’s on the start list for Challenge Roth) – not sure what that will mean for his chances in Kona.

Chris McCormack “just finished” to validate his Kona spot as a recent winner, but he did it in a smart way. He took the bike relatively easy (for him), and then ran a steady marathon, overtaking  all the athletes that were “blowing up”. His result in Cairns is not indicative of his true potential for Kona – but a lot of people will try to derive some meaning from his Cairns result for October.

Female Results

Carrie Lester is also a first time winner, she had to work for it on the run when Belinda Harper refused to give up the fight for the win:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:56:31 05:05:20 03:13:52 09:21:00 09:33:43
2 Belinda Harper NZL 00:53:00 05:00:37 03:23:02 09:22:42 10:04:51
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:00:53 05:07:22 03:10:26 09:24:45 09:47:01
4 Belinda Granger AUS 00:56:51 05:04:41 03:25:20 09:32:16 09:37:34
5 Rebecca Hoschke   01:02:05 05:10:29 03:21:17 09:39:53 n/a
6 Ange Castle   01:13:46 05:41:47 03:33:04 10:36:16 n/a
7 Emi Sakai JPN 01:06:43 05:11:58 04:17:53 10:43:04 10:15:06
8 Amanda McKenzie USA 01:07:03 05:42:05 04:26:47 11:24:12 10:53:42

The other big story in the women’s race was Bek Keat having to drop  early in the run. Apparently, she tore her calf (soleus muscle) and still tried to continue. This does  not sound like it was caused by a too quick bike – but she was racing with Macca and that might have been a bit too much. I hope she gets better soon and manages more satisfying results.

IM Brazil 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Course and conditions were pretty fast in Brazil, the adjustment was 20:38, about the same as last year, resulting in a new course rating of 14:05.

Male Results

Ezequil Morales used a fast run to pull into the lead in the final 10k of the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ezequiel Morales ARG 00:50:11 04:34:30 02:57:59 08:22:40 08:39:16
2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 00:48:04 04:26:51 03:10:36 08:25:31 08:20:40
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:17 04:34:38 03:09:01 08:27:56 n/a
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:02 04:33:12 03:08:21 08:29:35 08:36:25
5 Lucas Cocha ARG 00:47:36 04:32:03 03:10:54 08:30:33 09:22:09
6 Raul Furtado BRA 00:49:57 04:27:29 03:15:01 08:32:27 08:53:10
7 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:50:03 04:28:50 03:18:02 08:36:55 08:22:06
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:47 04:43:16 03:08:59 08:41:02 08:57:15
9 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:08 04:33:01 03:26:07 08:45:16 08:50:25
10 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 00:44:04 04:43:10 03:18:44 08:45:58 09:02:02
11 Oscar Galindez ARG 00:49:50 04:29:18 03:27:03 08:46:11 08:43:34
12 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:14 04:44:02 03:17:21 08:48:37 n/a
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:46:02 04:50:22 03:12:41 08:49:05 n/a
14 Guto Antunes BRA 00:49:53 04:54:46 03:18:20 09:02:59 n/a
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:48:07 04:57:08 03:33:22 09:18:37 09:05:11
16 Geovani Muchinski BRA 00:52:39 04:37:11 03:49:04 09:18:54 n/a
17 Christian emiliano Carletto   00:52:33 04:59:45 03:40:12 09:32:30 09:29:22
18 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:57 04:47:37 03:50:07 09:33:41 09:21:45
19 Santiago Amigo ARG 00:54:45 05:02:20 03:39:22 09:36:27 09:39:33
20 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva   00:46:46 04:59:09 04:07:46 09:53:41 n/a
21 Rodrigo Ferreira BRA 00:55:57 05:03:30 04:08:48 10:08:15 n/a
22 Marcio Roniak BRA 01:10:17 05:10:15 04:54:16 11:14:48 n/a

Female Results

On the female side, Sofie Goos won her second IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Sofie Goos BEL 00:52:42 04:59:24 03:25:36 09:17:42 09:22:08
2 Kim Loeffler USA 01:03:14 05:02:21 03:15:15 09:20:50 09:24:52
3 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 00:52:23 05:02:02 03:29:24 09:23:49 n/a
4 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:29 05:18:36 03:24:03 09:35:08 09:33:24
5 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:58:51 05:16:04 03:24:40 09:39:35 10:00:02
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:01 05:04:20 03:50:40 09:45:01 09:50:59
7 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:52:06 05:02:19 03:58:31 09:52:56 09:59:58
8 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:56:27 05:03:01 03:55:54 09:55:22 10:35:56
9 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 00:52:25 06:21:20 02:58:41 10:12:26 09:38:43
10 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 01:02:02 05:31:45 03:42:36 10:16:23 10:37:48

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