Analyzing IM St. George 2011 results

Race Conditions

IM St. George is one of the slowest courses on the IM calendar. This year was not much different with an adjustment of  negative 0:27 and also with a number of good athletes (almost all “names” on the female side) dropping out of the race. However, this year’s results are a bit strange – the top of the field posted solid results, usually quite a bit faster than their expected time (look for the “green names” in the results further down). In contrast to that, the bottom half of the field was a lot slower than expected. I’m not sure why that would be the case – maybe the hot temperatures took a while to build up and then hit the “slower” racers much harder than the quick ones. Another theory is that those athletes accustomed to hot and dry weather were able to race well, but those not acclimatized ran into big problems and ended up on the bottom of the field. Hard to tell ..

As a result of this, I’m a bit torn on how to rate this race – and as long as I’m not sure of that, it’s tricky to figure out how to do the proper calculation of the adjustment. I’ll probably add in a max difference in a single result that forms the basis of the calculation in the next version of the methodology.

Male Results

Last year winner and pre-race favorite Michael Weiss had to drop out of the race after the bike, and there was a big battle between the other top rated athletes – with Mathias Hecht barely edging out Maik Twelsiek for the win. In another close fight, TJ Tollakson took the third podium spot – apparently after almost dropping out after feeling not-so-good after the first part of the run, but then running down Ben Hofman and Mike Aigroz.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:32:03 08:49:57
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:33:46 08:43:40
3 TJ Tollakson USA 08:40:20 09:01:51
4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:41:39 08:56:52
5 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:42:06 09:00:51
6 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:51:41 09:12:23
7 Alexandro Santamaria   09:04:38 n/a
8 Christian Brader GER 09:08:19 09:13:50
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:11:11 09:00:20
10 Bevan McKinnon NZL 09:12:37 09:02:02
11 Ernst Moser AUT 09:14:35 09:06:21
12 Joe McDaniel USA 09:26:27 08:59:42
13 Luke Way CAN 09:34:50 10:25:26
14 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:37:12 09:13:13
15 Scott Defilippis USA 09:58:05 09:31:40
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:09:18 10:05:35
17 Markus Strini AUT 10:10:48 09:18:30

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Female Results

Heather Wurtele managed to defend her title. She was the only one of the “big names” who completed the race The other podium contenders dropped out and she won by 36 minutes and was the only one in the women’s field to race quicker than her expected time.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:30:33 09:39:56
2 Jackie Arendt   10:06:36 n/a
3 Uli Bromme USA 10:10:48 09:59:12
4 Liis Toomingas   10:36:36 n/a
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 10:43:37 09:48:38
6 Kelly Liljeblad USA 11:01:10 10:17:03
7 Amber Ferreira   11:36:03 n/a
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:51:45 11:04:34

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Looking forward to IM St. George (Main Post)

Next up on the IM calendar is one of the newest races: IM St. George in Utah. After the small pro field at IM Australia, we’ve got a few more participants on the start list. Here is an overview of the predictions, each athlete’s results can be found in the IM St. George details post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first IM race in St. George.

Here are the top 3 pros:

Rank Name Nation Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:40:08
2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:52:54
3 Chris McDonald AUS 08:54:42

 

Rank Name Nation Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:35:26
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:46:58
3 Caitlin Snow USA 10:07:26

The race was really slow, it resulted in an adjustment of –2:55 (yes, negative 2:55!). I’ve got a handful of such  slow races in the database, but one thing is sure: Don’t expect a quick race next Saturday!

Men’s Predictions

There are nearly 30 men on the start list:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:44:11 08:41:22 15
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:49:54 08:47:03 27
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:55:39 08:52:46 39
4 Ben Hoffman USA 09:03:35 09:00:40 64
5 Mike Aigroz SWI 09:04:12 09:01:17 69
6 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:06:35 09:03:39 76
7 Bevan Mckinnon NZL 09:07:48 09:04:52 83
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:07:57 09:05:01 85
9 TJ Tollakson USA 09:09:20 09:06:23 88
10 Joe Mcdaniel USA 09:11:55 09:08:57 92
11 Ernst Moser AUT 09:16:00 09:13:01 105
12 Christian Brader GER 09:19:13 09:16:13 109
13 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:21:14 09:18:13 117
14 Markus Strini AUT 09:24:34 09:21:32 132
15 Paul Ambrose AUS 09:24:47 09:21:45 135
16 Billy Edwards USA 09:38:35 09:35:29 210
17 Scott Defilippis USA 09:42:06 09:38:59 224
18 Kevin Everett USA 09:45:01 09:41:53 239
19 Craig Howie USA 09:56:12 09:53:00 295
20 Heath Thurston USA 10:15:00 10:11:42 383
21 Dantley Young USA 10:21:54 10:18:34 410
22 Luke Way CAN 10:40:27 10:37:01 479
23 Daniel MacDonald CAN 12:54:22 12:50:13 575
24 Cedric Largajolli   n/a unrated n/a
25 Jeff Paul   n/a unrated n/a
26 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated n/a
27 Chris Wichert   n/a unrated n/a
28 Alexandro Santamaria   n/a unrated n/a

Last year’s winner is back (and the top rated athlete), but last year’s second Ben Hoffmann has been displaced by better rated Maik Twlsiek (my personal favorite athlete!) and Mathias Hecht for the podium spots in the prediction. There is a ton of pretty closely rated athletes, so it looks like it’s going to be an interesting race.

Women’s Predictions

As with the men, last year’s winner Heather Wurtele is back and tops the predictions:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:50:25 09:47:15 21
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:54:33 09:51:22 29
3 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:57:19 09:54:07 35
4 Dede Griesbauer USA 10:08:04 10:04:48 52
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:12:33 10:09:16 63
6 Andrea Steinbecher GER 10:21:18 10:17:58 85
7 Kelly Liljeblad USA 10:27:50 10:24:28 99
8 Irene Kinnegim NLD 10:38:17 10:34:51 130
9 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:15:04 11:11:27 182
10 Liis Toomingas   n/a unrated n/a
11 Jodie Swallo   n/a unrated n/a
12 Jackie Arendt   n/a unrated n/a
13 Amber Ferreira   n/a unrated n/a

As for the men’s race, it promises to be quite interesting with a nice number of similarly rated athletes. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for my country woman Andrea Steinbecher, who won IM Germany a few years back under her maiden name of Andrea Brede and has had a few struggling years.

IM St. George (Athlete Details)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:44:11 08:41:22 15
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:49:54 08:47:03 27
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:55:39 08:52:46 39
4 Ben Hoffman USA 09:03:35 09:00:40 64
5 Mike Aigroz SWI 09:04:12 09:01:17 69
6 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:06:35 09:03:39 76
7 Bevan Mckinnon NZL 09:07:48 09:04:52 83
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:07:57 09:05:01 85
9 TJ Tollakson USA 09:09:20 09:06:23 88
10 Joe Mcdaniel USA 09:11:55 09:08:57 92
11 Ernst Moser AUT 09:16:00 09:13:01 105
12 Christian Brader GER 09:19:13 09:16:13 109
13 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:21:14 09:18:13 117
14 Markus Strini AUT 09:24:34 09:21:32 132
15 Paul Ambrose AUS 09:24:47 09:21:45 135
16 Billy Edwards USA 09:38:35 09:35:29 210
17 Scott Defilippis USA 09:42:06 09:38:59 224
18 Kevin Everett USA 09:45:01 09:41:53 239
19 Craig Howie USA 09:56:12 09:53:00 295
20 Heath Thurston USA 10:15:00 10:11:42 383
21 Dantley Young USA 10:21:54 10:18:34 410
22 Luke Way CAN 10:40:27 10:37:01 479
23 Daniel MacDonald CAN 12:54:22 12:50:13 575
24 Cedric Largajolli   n/a unrated n/a
25 Jeff Paul   n/a unrated n/a
26 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated n/a
27 Chris Wichert   n/a unrated n/a
28 Alexandro Santamaria   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:50:25 09:47:15 21
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:54:33 09:51:22 29
3 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:57:19 09:54:07 35
4 Dede Griesbauer USA 10:08:04 10:04:48 52
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:12:33 10:09:16 63
6 Andrea Steinbecher GER 10:21:18 10:17:58 85
7 Kelly Liljeblad USA 10:27:50 10:24:28 99
8 Irene Kinnegim NLD 10:38:17 10:34:51 130
9 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:15:04 11:11:27 182
10 Liis Toomingas   n/a unrated n/a
11 Jodie Swallo   n/a unrated n/a
12 Jackie Arendt   n/a unrated n/a
13 Amber Ferreira   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Michael Weiss (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:29:15 08:35:59 08:41:22 13
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:40:08 08:37:20 08:44:23 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:54 08:52:06 08:52:06 25

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:27:02 08:33:44 08:47:03 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:48:33 09:00:51 08:49:09 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:35:10 08:31:31 08:47:03 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:36:37 08:35:22 08:49:59 1
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:34:10 08:46:37 08:53:15 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:37 08:49:46 08:55:03 14
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 08:52:49 09:06:21 08:56:49 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:17:03 08:46:55 08:53:07 6
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:31:53 08:57:21 08:56:50 9
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:02:19 08:56:18 08:56:18 9

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:45:36 08:55:28 08:52:46 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:28:53 08:45:52 08:52:13 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:33:49 08:53:36 13
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:08:03 09:21:20 08:58:34 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:35:09 08:51:44 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 09:01:20 08:58:06 3
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:42:47 08:54:21 08:56:12 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:58:32 08:58:32 34

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:03:29 09:10:40 09:00:40 42
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:39:34 08:51:40 08:57:48 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:52:54 08:50:01 09:00:10 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:29:54 09:25:52 09:06:07 58
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:24:13 08:43:19 08:43:19 6

Results for Mike Aigroz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:18:34 09:14:37 09:01:17 46
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:40:17 08:47:42 08:47:42 2

Results for Balazs Csoke (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:43:06 09:03:39 09:03:39 10

Results for Bevan Mckinnon (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 09:07:37 08:52:02 09:04:52 3
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:01:14 09:22:07 09:22:07 9

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 09:01:03 09:05:01 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 09:08:36 09:05:12 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 09:27:44 09:11:34 09:05:02 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:05 09:04:43 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:03:32 09:05:12 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:57:57 09:05:17 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:58:49 09:05:41 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:06:45 09:06:05 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:16:06 09:06:03 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:08:55 09:05:27 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:19:04 09:05:14 50
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:14:25 09:04:22 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:09:04 09:03:42 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:47:53 09:03:19 10
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:54:04 09:04:28 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 09:00:03 09:05:16 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:47:24 09:05:41 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:51:00 09:07:15 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:05:53 09:15:21 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 09:00:06 09:16:15 2
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:23:23 09:17:52 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:22:43 09:17:17 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:20:00 09:16:40 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:47:02 09:16:15 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:59:57 08:58:22 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:50:40 09:13:44 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:15:09 09:17:40 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 09:02:15 09:18:09 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:59:16 09:21:43 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:33:07 09:27:49 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:15:48 09:47:59 54
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:15:00 10:04:53 22
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for TJ Tollakson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:54:00 09:01:04 09:06:23 38
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:22 08:50:29 09:07:34 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:06:20 09:02:28 09:11:36 32
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 08:42:03 09:02:02 09:14:22 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:53:43 09:55:00 09:19:21 68
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:34:36 08:51:44 08:59:14 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:03:05 09:07:22 09:07:22 29

Results for Joe Mcdaniel (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:43:23 09:08:57 09:08:57 9

Results for Ernst Moser (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:53:49 09:13:01 09:13:01 11

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:33:43 08:40:31 09:16:13 16
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:41 08:51:08 09:20:44 2
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 10:23:03 10:50:40 09:24:56 23
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:14:42 09:11:42 09:11:03 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:57:39 08:53:50 09:10:55 26
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:56:35 08:55:17 09:14:25 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:03:56 10:18:34 09:19:07 19
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:50:08 08:51:17 09:00:57 19
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:58:10 09:02:58 09:04:45 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:06:16 09:10:35 09:05:51 35
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:56:01 09:00:18 09:00:18 37

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:33 09:40:36 09:18:13 23
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:11 08:51:24 08:51:24 24

Results for Markus Strini (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:03:21 09:30:05 09:21:32 20
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:25:50 09:22:47 09:19:58 11
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:20:37 09:26:44 09:19:23 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:23:08 09:21:46 09:17:44 10
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:31 09:05:42 09:16:35 32
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:16:10 09:20:33 09:20:12 44
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:07:22 09:17:03 09:20:03 8
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 09:32:38 09:20:13 09:21:46 4
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:08:24 09:23:25 09:23:25 18

Results for Paul Ambrose (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:38:24 08:54:10 09:21:45 5
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:24:54 08:55:17 09:37:31 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:04:18 10:27:11 10:27:11 43

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:45:55 09:59:34 09:35:29 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:14:42 09:36:58 09:31:52 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:59:30 09:55:15 09:30:59 72
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:12:09 09:10:49 09:26:33 7
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:17:02 09:38:08 09:29:55 27
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:24:34 09:29:01 09:27:58 55
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:16:09 09:20:35 09:27:42 10
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:22:27 09:26:57 09:29:54 68
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:21:48 09:24:48 09:31:03 12
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:36:45 09:40:25 09:34:47 72
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:28:40 09:28:40 09:28:40 18

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 09:09:21 09:38:59 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:49:55 09:55:44 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 10:02:02 10:02:02 17

Results for Kevin Everett (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:14:47 09:41:53 09:41:53 24

Results for Craig Howie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:50:22 10:04:07 09:53:00 19
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:48:38 09:45:27 09:49:15 16
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:55:17 10:01:47 09:51:04 16
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:25:25 09:29:32 09:42:49 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:54:54 09:58:38 09:58:38 5

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:08:42 10:17:22 10:11:42 30
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:57:00 10:19:37 10:08:14 41
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:26:07 09:54:42 09:54:42 37

Results for Dantley Young (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:30:41 10:45:58 10:18:34 21
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:19:31 09:38:47 10:02:59 23
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:08:24 10:28:39 10:28:39 18

Results for Luke Way (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:15:39 10:37:01 10:37:01 16

Results for Daniel MacDonald (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 11:48:23 12:13:52 12:50:13 29
IM Canada 2008-08-24 13:59:42 14:28:37 13:17:27 39
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:36:13 11:53:46 11:53:46 31

Results for Cedric Largajolli ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jeff Paul ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Chris Wichert ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Alexandro Santamaria ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:19:10 09:46:29 09:47:15 5
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:17:17 09:37:20 09:47:27 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:35:26 09:32:20 09:50:37 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:34:24 09:56:23 09:58:19 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:39:51 09:59:49 09:59:27 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:38:58 09:59:04 09:59:04 1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:42:08 09:51:22 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:12:01 09:53:21 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:33:41 09:48:21 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:46:30 09:53:35 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:43:48 09:57:21 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 10:11:53 10:11:53 7

Results for Tamara Kozulina (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:28:43 09:56:42 09:54:07 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:12:47 09:41:56 09:53:41 2
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:56:24 09:54:58 09:55:35 4
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:14:15 09:45:06 09:55:42 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:34:18 09:53:25 09:57:45 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:20:10 09:48:27 09:58:40 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:16 10:00:58 10:01:13 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:50 10:02:18 10:01:18 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:10:46 10:14:36 10:00:54 9
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:43:50 09:47:33 09:52:55 13
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:58:46 09:58:46 09:58:46 4

Results for Dede Griesbauer (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:40:14 10:48:42 10:04:48 37
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:40:59 09:36:52 09:52:33 9
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:39:53 09:41:08 09:57:26 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:33:34 09:38:06 10:03:17 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:14:22 10:19:16 10:14:22 35
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:54:34 09:58:21 10:11:25 18
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:20:44 10:24:58 10:24:58 8

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:31:22 09:59:17 10:09:16 9
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:46:19 10:07:24 10:14:46 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:47:44 10:23:07 10:23:07 10

Results for Andrea Steinbecher (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:18:08 10:40:22 10:17:58 12
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:17:00 10:12:38 10:06:27 29
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:10 10:00:52 10:01:30 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:58:35 10:02:23 10:02:23 22

Results for Kelly Liljeblad (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:59:54 10:13:52 10:24:28 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 10:08:31 10:31:48 10:31:46 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 10:27:09 10:31:43 10:31:43 10

Results for Irene Kinnegim (NLD)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:03:33 10:11:32 10:34:51 25
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:01:34 10:08:08 10:39:31 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:27:23 10:42:35 10:45:51 10
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:10:38 10:11:57 10:46:36 23
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:45:17 10:50:23 10:56:02 49
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 10:31:48 10:36:24 10:57:44 11
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:28:03 10:33:04 11:06:27 45
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 10:45:33 11:03:13 11:25:21 15
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:44:49 11:49:18 11:49:18 58

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 12:47:12 13:14:48 11:11:27 18
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:40:59 10:37:31 10:58:48 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:53:01 10:28:43 11:01:05 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 13:39:19 14:10:41 11:04:42 14
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:18:02 10:41:53 11:04:42 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:06:24 10:29:22 11:07:13 12
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:54:52 11:09:52 11:11:39 12
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:21:23 11:44:51 11:11:53 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:18:14 10:39:41 11:07:05 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:21:42 10:42:24 11:11:36 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:43:58 10:49:03 11:17:11 48
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:16:31 10:37:44 11:23:11 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:15:34 11:19:11 11:34:20 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 11:22:19 11:26:36 11:38:38 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:27:13 11:31:35 11:43:14 55
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:19:15 11:37:43 11:49:15 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 11:42:45 12:01:08 12:01:08 5

Results for Liis Toomingas ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jodie Swallo ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jackie Arendt ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Amber Ferreira ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Analyzing IM Australia 2011 results

Race Conditions

The reports from IM Australia indicated that the conditions were quite hard, with a heavy wind making the bike and run pretty hard when having to attack it head-on. This is borne out by the race results. Before the race, the course was rated 12:14 (i.e. 12:14 faster than a normalized course). This year’s results resulted in an adjustment of 9:30, so conditions were about 3 minutes slower than usually in Australia.

Male Results

The men’s field was not very deep, but after Craig Alexander’s cancellation a few days before the race the race was wide open. It even seemed possible that Patrick Vernay might be able to continue his winning streak. In the end, however, it was Pete Jacobs who scored his first IM win:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:29:28 08:37:27
2 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:35:50 08:28:31
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:46:07 08:47:39
4 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:47:16 08:55:25
5 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:49:56 08:44:37
6 Luke Whitmore   08:54:57 n/a
7 Scott Curry CAN 09:06:31 09:15:25
8 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:39:26 09:02:06
9 Adam Holborow AUS 09:40:49 09:12:55

Pete Jacobs continued his streak of strong race results, Patrick Vernay was just a little bit off but managed a 2nd place. 40-year old Jason Shortis almost exactly raced according to predictions and held off Scott Neyedli, whose good time wasn’t quite good enough for the podium.

The most interesting consequence of the race may be the changes to Crowie’s future race plans: He has to finish one Ironman to validate his Hawaii spot, and my prediction is that he will do an early race as soon as he is over his infection. Maybe he’ll be a late addition to IM Texas? (IM China may be good conditions for him – i.e. hot -  but probably “too hard” for what he is trying to achieve.)

Female Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:29:54 09:28:45
2 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:38:23 10:03:08
3 Nicole Ward AUS 09:49:23 10:08:16
4 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:53:55 10:08:46
5 Erin Spitler   10:08:33 n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

I don’t think there ever was any doubt that Caroline Steffen would win this race as long as she finishes. She seemed to have some issues during the race, but finished right where I expected her. If she can enjoy a good Hawaii prep, she is certainly a contender for a podium finish, even if she seems to be not quite on the same level of Chrissie or Rinnie.

Looking forward to IM Australia (Main Post)

The next race on the IM calendar is Ironman Australia. Here is a look IM Australia and the upcoming race. Some additional details on the athletes can be found in the previous post.

Previous Results

Last year’s IM Australia results on Ironman.com and the race’s site are a bit of a mess, so here is “cleaned up” version of the pro results (at least to the best of what I was able to do looking at race results and press releases – please let me know if there’s anything wring) :

Male Race Results 2010

Rank Name Nation Time
1 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:23:54
2 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:27:58
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:35:54
4 Matt White AUS 08:36:39
5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:38:24
6 Tim Berkel AUS 08:40:46
7 Adam Holborow AUS 08:48:36
8 David Meade AUS 08:56:14
9 Adrian Cominotto   09:28:28
10 Nathan Fitzakerley   09:32:23
11 Joshua Rix   09:58:11

Female Race Results 2010

Rank Name Nation Actual
1 Carrie Lester AUS 09:23:46
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:33:10
3 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:46:09
4 Diana Riesler GER 09:57:04
5 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:59:10
6 Conny Dauben GER 10:46:03
7 Desiree Ficker USA 11:14:54

Course Rating

Overall, IM Australia is about as fast as IM South Africa or IM Canada with a course rating of 12:41 (compared to 2:46 for IM Hawaii as the slowest course and 29:30 for Challenge Roth as the quickest course).

Having added the previous IM Australia results (generously supplied by Athlinks), there were some new results for Chris McCormack (winner in 2005 and 2006) and for Craig Alexander (3rd in 2007). As this was Crowie’s first IM race, he approached it cautiously and posted his slowest IM time. This resulted in Crowie dropping to the 3rd spot in the ratings (Macca still being No. 1). Andreas Raelert picked up one spot and is now 2nd – but he’s got some slower results in IM Germany (which is up for processing before the early July race).

Men’s Predictions

Here’s a look at my predictions for the men’s pro race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:09:21 08:24:42 3
2 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:21:53 08:37:38 10
3 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:30:43 08:46:44 24
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:37:55 08:54:10 40
5 Jason Shortis AUS 08:40:46 08:57:06 48
6 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:48:25 09:05:00 82
7 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 08:55:01 09:11:48 100
8 Adam Holborow AUS 09:05:42 09:22:49 144
9 Nathan Stewart AUS 09:07:09 09:24:19 151
10 Scott Curry CAN 09:08:11 09:25:23 164
11 Gavin Scott NZL 09:08:23 09:25:35 165

Craig Alexander is the overall favorite, and should be able to post a finishing time close to 8 hours. I’m quite interested in Pete Jacobs performance, he seems to be on a pretty good development (posting the fastest run split in Kona), and if he has a good day, he might be one to give Craig a bit of a scare. Behind the TOP3 there are another 3 good, solid athletes that will try to take a spot on the podium – and I’m sure that 6th ranked Scott Neyedli will try to defend his 2nd spot from last year.

Women’s Predictions

As in the men’s race, there is a clear pre-race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:21:22 09:38:59 12
2 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:55:15 10:13:56 74
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:32 10:19:23 85
4 Kirsten Molloy AUS 10:00:49 10:19:40 86

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