IM Sweden 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

According to my calculations, IM Sweden was a medium fast course with an adjustment of 8:45. (This  number looks a bit suspicious, and I’m looking into it. Update: I’ve done a pretty involved analysis on how I’m calculation adjustments and course ratings. I noticed that my current algorithm is not very good in dealing with very slow and very fast races and discards a lot of results in these cases as “too far off”. I’m working on improving this, in the meantime 25:00 minutes is a better estimate of IM Sweden’s course rating, i.e. it is a very fast course, probably even faster than Roth or Austria.)

Male Results

On the men’s side, Jan Raphael had a strong race, was in the mix for the whole day and posted the fastest run to finally win another Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:32 04:26:32 02:45:44 08:04:01 08:29:40
2 Dorian Wagner GER 00:48:38 04:26:31 02:49:49 08:08:06 08:39:52
3 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:16 04:27:09 02:51:00 08:10:12 09:19:21
4 Jonas Djurback SWE 00:48:29 04:26:51 02:52:37 08:10:51 09:08:14
5 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:48:40 04:30:54 02:50:41 08:13:56 08:51:33
6 Andi Boecherer GER 00:48:15 04:26:37 02:56:55 08:15:26 08:32:59
7 Sergio Marques PRT 00:53:17 04:31:35 02:48:20 08:16:21 08:54:39
8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:48:45 04:24:20 03:05:09 08:21:04 n/a
9 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 00:58:39 04:25:48 02:53:39 08:21:51 09:01:10
10 Christophe Bastie FRA 00:52:53 04:27:38 02:58:02 08:21:54 08:45:16
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:48:37 04:30:58 03:00:49 08:24:20 08:57:30
12 Jens Groenbek DEN 00:50:28 04:34:36 02:57:40 08:25:26 08:42:56
13 David Naesvik SWE 00:54:47 04:30:17 03:00:59 08:28:53 09:01:20
14 Heinrich Sickl AUT 00:55:23 04:29:37 03:09:34 08:37:43 09:33:49
15 Ted Aas SWE 00:53:31 04:31:14 03:13:02 08:40:47 09:11:24
16 Raul Furtado BRA 00:53:20 04:30:45 03:15:56 08:43:54 08:59:12
17 Jonas Colting SWE 00:50:14 04:34:36 03:13:00 08:45:02 09:41:19
18 Luke Dragstra USA 00:50:41 04:34:13 03:30:39 08:59:07 08:52:17
19 Teemu Kyllonen GBR 01:02:26 04:37:24 03:17:19 09:03:10 n/a
20 Ari Saukko FIN 00:57:54 04:42:43 04:07:15 09:52:29 n/a
21 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:12:30 05:12:31 04:27:19 10:58:00 11:58:35
22 Ivan Kharin RUS 01:12:45 04:46:16 05:22:17 11:26:25 11:15:18

Female Results

The home country was very happy to see a local winner. Again, it took the fastest run to put away the race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Asa Lundström SWE 01:00:17 04:51:45 03:18:19 09:13:27 09:46:47
2 Dana Wagner GER 00:58:55 04:48:47 03:31:30 09:22:32 09:55:40
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:04:48 04:53:38 03:31:05 09:34:36 10:26:18
4 Rebekka Essmüller GER 00:55:03 04:57:28 03:42:28 09:39:02 10:06:00
5 Helene Malmkvist SWE 01:07:47 04:48:42 04:23:32 10:28:14 n/a
6 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 01:04:59 05:31:48 04:01:42 10:44:38 10:55:11
7 Conny Dauben GER 01:10:53 05:22:26 04:22:04 11:00:03 10:50:11

IM Mont Tremblant 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Mont Tremblant turned out to be a medium fast course with an adjustment of 11:11. There were only 12 rated athletes finishing the race, so this number may change quite a bit in the next years.

Male Results

Romain Guillaume had a commanding lead after the swim and bike, so he could “afford” a 3:09 marathon and still win by about 6 minutes:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:51:22 04:35:17 03:09:09 08:40:48 09:04:38
2 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 00:57:17 04:52:23 02:52:35 08:46:58 08:46:13
3 Matthew Russell USA 01:02:34 04:47:11 02:53:29 08:48:12 08:54:20
4 Martin Lamontagne Lacasse CAN 00:55:05 05:02:16 03:02:15 09:04:59 09:38:59
5 Ryan Cain CAN 00:57:02 04:58:56 03:05:25 09:06:08 09:53:33
6 Brendan Halpin USA 01:06:07 05:07:46 03:18:24 09:37:18 09:17:02
7 Chuck Perreault CAN 00:55:02 05:06:00 03:31:40 09:38:57 n/a
8 Nigel Gray CAN 00:57:06 04:45:02 05:23:52 11:11:19 08:58:48

Female Results

After winning IM Lake Placid about a month ago, Jessie Donavan added another IM title:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jessie Donavan USA 01:07:33 05:06:31 03:11:35 09:30:46 09:35:22
2 Uli Bromme USA 01:04:38 05:14:35 03:17:32 09:42:45 09:50:53
3 Rachel Kiers CAN 01:01:40 05:08:46 03:33:55 09:49:49 10:05:10
4 Marie Danais CAN 00:57:10 05:42:16 03:28:45 10:14:33 10:23:02
5 Katya Meyers USA 01:07:28 05:15:35 03:50:03 10:19:23 10:13:50

IM Louisville 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Louisville is a relatively slow course (probably because of the heat) with a course rating of 2:53 (but quite some variation). Last year’s winners were Chris McDonald in 8:27 and Nina Kraft in 9:38. The course records are 08:25:27 by Victor Zyemtsev and 09:20:21 by Nina Kraft, both from 2009. This year, it is a 1.000 points race, so I don’t expect any Kona contenders to race this race.

Male Participants

Chris McDonald is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:34 08:48:23 74
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:50:13 08:53:03 100
3 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:15 09:09:10 198
4 Jim Lamastra   09:06:31 09:09:27 202
5 Ivan Albano BRA 09:19:10 09:22:10 303
6 Peter Kotland USA 09:28:07 09:31:09 372
7 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:40:08 09:43:14 447
8 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:47:19 09:50:28 507
9 Bojan Maric SCG 10:09:47 10:13:03 641
10 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:09:48 10:13:04 642
11 Yong Taek Kim KOR 10:11:20 10:14:36 653
12 Andrew Hodges   n/a unrated n/a
13 Timothy Beardall   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jared Woodford   n/a unrated n/a
15 Mike Hermanson   n/a unrated n/a
16 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
17 Thomas Maliszewski   n/a unrated n/a
18 Ed Donner   n/a unrated n/a

He is also the one with the best winning odds:

  • Chris McDonald: 51%
  • Patrick Evoe: 41%

Other than these two, no athlete has a reasonable (statistical) chance of winning the race.

Female Participants

As for the men, last year’s winner Nina Kraft is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:34:21 09:37:25 31
2 Jessica Smith USA 09:46:04 09:49:12 63
3 Bree Wee USA 09:55:34 09:58:45 91
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:01:48 10:05:01 107
5 Terra Castro USA 10:14:58 10:18:16 156
6 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:30:27 10:33:50 197
7 Tatiana Vertiz   10:53:39 10:57:09 247
8 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:08:04 11:11:39 261

She also leads the winning odds:

  • Nina Kraft: 57%
  • Jackie Arendt: 15%
  • Bree Wee: 11%
  • Jessica Smith: 10%

IM Louisville 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:34 08:48:23 74
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:50:13 08:53:03 100
3 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:15 09:09:10 198
4 Jim Lamastra   09:06:31 09:09:27 202
5 Ivan Albano BRA 09:19:10 09:22:10 303
6 Peter Kotland USA 09:28:07 09:31:09 372
7 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:40:08 09:43:14 447
8 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:47:19 09:50:28 507
9 Bojan Maric SCG 10:09:47 10:13:03 641
10 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:09:48 10:13:04 642
11 Yong Taek Kim KOR 10:11:20 10:14:36 653
12 Andrew Hodges   n/a unrated n/a
13 Timothy Beardall   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jared Woodford   n/a unrated n/a
15 Mike Hermanson   n/a unrated n/a
16 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
17 Thomas Maliszewski   n/a unrated n/a
18 Ed Donner   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:34:21 09:37:25 31
2 Jessica Smith USA 09:46:04 09:49:12 63
3 Bree Wee USA 09:55:34 09:58:45 91
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:01:48 10:05:01 107
5 Terra Castro USA 10:14:58 10:18:16 156
6 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:30:27 10:33:50 197
7 Tatiana Vertiz   10:53:39 10:57:09 247
8 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:08:04 11:11:39 261

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:43:34 04:40:37 03:13:39 08:41:30 08:50:34 08:48:23 10
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:51:47 04:35:45 02:55:22 08:27:36 08:37:07 08:48:09 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29       08:24:34 08:43:39 08:49:10 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:51:29 04:33:01 03:03:02 08:32:37 08:48:37 08:49:42 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:57:53 04:44:30 03:05:16 08:52:04 08:53:02 08:49:48 35
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 00:54:42 04:35:17 03:04:39 08:37:22 08:55:40 08:49:29 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 00:55:47 04:42:39 03:07:01 08:48:30 08:54:10 08:48:53 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 00:51:20 04:54:02 03:06:25 08:54:42 08:50:40 08:48:20 3
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 00:54:21 04:43:14 03:13:05 08:56:47 08:55:05 08:48:04 5
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 00:50:30 04:22:31 03:01:39 08:17:39 08:38:21 08:47:21 11
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01       08:37:41 08:43:23 08:48:20 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:50:25 04:33:54 03:31:02 08:58:59 09:05:56 08:48:50 17
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 00:51:52 04:48:41 02:56:40 08:43:29 08:44:02 08:46:56 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:54:53 04:36:13 03:19:48 08:54:54 08:51:23 08:47:16 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 00:50:02 04:29:38 02:58:25 08:20:59 08:41:06 08:46:44 4
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19       08:49:37 08:53:06 08:47:33 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:52:17 04:26:53 03:02:02 08:21:12 08:37:23 08:46:44 8
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:51:54 04:39:58 03:00:34 08:38:40 08:40:18 08:48:16 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:51:27 04:31:27 02:57:54 08:24:42 08:45:08 08:49:41 9
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:51:59 04:32:27 03:11:34 08:36:00 08:43:11 08:50:36 4
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 00:57:33 04:55:17 03:13:02 09:12:35 08:59:59 08:52:10 2
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 00:52:35 05:01:32 03:08:54 09:07:55 09:00:41 08:50:15 9
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:50:01 04:55:15 03:11:53 08:57:09 08:55:07 08:47:02 8
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 00:55:10 04:38:00 03:04:28 08:37:38 08:39:53 08:43:44 6
IM Canada 2005-08-29 00:54:58 04:42:31 03:06:13 08:47:10 08:45:07 08:45:54 5
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 00:52:38 04:49:55 02:59:38 08:46:45 08:46:45 08:46:45 5

Results for Patrick Evoe (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:53:02 04:24:09 02:59:23 08:30:36 08:43:23 08:53:03 2
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:54:16 04:39:10 02:52:26 08:30:35 08:40:09 08:55:00 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:58:30 04:30:26 02:59:28 08:32:29 08:38:04 08:58:24 8
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 08:35:27 08:45:38 09:03:53 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:56:07 04:48:06 03:03:40 08:53:14 08:56:03 09:09:29 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 01:00:55 04:51:38 02:56:10 08:52:05 08:57:47 09:14:51 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:51:00 04:45:52 05:28:43 11:09:12 11:16:29 10:03:25 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 01:03:30 05:19:23 03:29:10 09:56:43 09:54:52 09:25:21 60
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 00:57:48 04:57:50 03:12:49 09:14:18 09:12:38 09:07:33 9
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:59:09 04:49:47 03:03:55 08:59:16 09:00:58 09:00:58 5

Results for Daniel Bretscher (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 00:55:21 05:02:40 03:04:42 09:07:05 09:09:10 09:09:10 5

Results for Jim Lamastra ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 00:53:31 04:45:43 03:11:34 08:55:20 09:09:27 09:09:27 13

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 01:03:45 05:18:45 03:12:58 09:40:30 09:34:13 09:22:10 14
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:53:48 04:44:11 03:18:18 09:01:14 09:14:50 09:20:06 30
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:55:42 04:57:54 03:22:01 09:21:39 09:32:11 09:21:03 5
IM Brasil 2011-05-29       08:48:57 09:08:58 09:18:49 7
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 00:48:59 04:52:51 03:12:14 08:54:05 09:10:59 09:21:04 9
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:46:41 04:59:44 03:32:45 09:23:59 09:30:07 09:23:09 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 00:55:29 04:51:17 03:17:52 09:04:38 09:17:57 09:21:38 10
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:54:51 04:56:48 04:34:09 10:31:50 10:27:41 09:22:30 17
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 00:58:59 04:42:02 03:13:01 08:58:55 09:07:57 09:07:29 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:53:03 04:41:34 03:11:09 08:50:46 09:06:40 09:07:21 18
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:52:44 04:51:16 03:19:56 09:11:09 09:12:54 09:07:33 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:59:58 04:56:12 03:13:35 09:15:57 09:11:44 09:05:25 52
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 00:54:00 04:47:20 03:03:42 08:45:00 08:51:34 09:02:32 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 00:59:02 05:05:37 03:15:43 09:27:56 09:12:46 09:08:46 7
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 00:57:34 04:57:15 03:09:36 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Peter Kotland (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:57:52 05:07:20 03:06:48 09:20:28 09:23:50 09:31:09 14
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:59:33 05:06:11 03:19:39 09:32:51 09:29:05 09:33:01 9
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:57:40 04:48:56 03:11:30 09:04:44 09:21:03 09:33:56 27
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:56:07 05:04:01 03:11:53 09:22:20 09:24:07 09:36:53 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 01:00:26 05:30:22 03:09:33 09:45:34 09:47:55 09:40:24 19
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:58:29 05:06:36 03:08:18 09:22:25 09:32:53 09:37:44 20
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 01:01:27 05:38:46 03:24:27 10:18:42 10:04:35 09:39:46 16
IM Florida 2005-11-05 00:57:40 04:50:07 03:13:25 09:08:36 09:12:35 09:22:57 14
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 00:57:35 05:16:44 03:20:22 09:34:43 09:34:43 09:34:43 12

Results for Yeun Sik Ham (KOR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 01:02:43 05:03:40 02:58:19 09:36:02 09:43:14 09:43:14 6

Results for Thomas Gerlach (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 00:59:19 05:33:54 03:12:14 09:49:00 09:08:52 09:50:28 4
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:57:04 04:43:37 03:12:27 08:57:00 09:10:30 10:02:41 27
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 01:01:16 05:05:38 03:40:33 09:53:49 09:56:13 10:20:52 16
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:57:45 05:08:27 03:55:53 10:08:29 10:11:42 10:28:59 12
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 01:00:57 05:19:56 04:15:24 10:43:20 10:41:18 10:37:20 20
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 01:05:29 05:27:43 03:50:55 10:30:50 10:31:30 10:35:03 19
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 01:09:56 05:32:10 03:48:53 10:40:11 10:39:04 10:37:44 23
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 01:11:55 05:44:07 03:41:58 10:50:49 10:35:58 10:35:58 20

Results for Bojan Maric (SCG)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2012-07-01 01:03:07 05:03:35 03:41:53 09:55:18 10:07:25 10:13:03 18
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:59:07 05:14:04 03:46:25 10:08:43 10:35:30 10:15:07 24
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:57:37 05:20:15 03:31:27 09:56:06 10:07:17 10:06:11 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:57:48 05:04:23 03:41:08 09:52:48 10:11:19 10:05:25 30
IM Florida 2008-11-01 00:58:51 04:59:42 03:27:19 09:32:06 09:53:56 09:57:49 33
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 00:55:58 05:20:42 03:37:21 10:02:50 10:07:51 10:07:51 23

Results for Reinaldo Oliveira (BRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 00:54:33 05:01:14 03:56:58 09:56:26 10:23:19 10:13:04 24
IM Florida 2008-11-01 01:02:40 04:54:45 03:26:50 09:29:10 09:50:53 09:50:53 32

Results for Yong Taek Kim (KOR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 01:11:25 05:17:39 03:28:05 10:07:00 10:14:36 10:14:36 7

Results for Andrew Hodges ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Timothy Beardall ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jared Woodford ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mike Hermanson ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Robert Wade ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Thomas Maliszewski ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ed Donner ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Nina Kraft (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:50:14 05:22:47 03:19:17 09:38:14 09:49:05 09:37:25 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:52:56 05:14:30 03:07:33 09:20:21 09:23:43 09:29:40 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:50:43 04:59:22 03:11:12 09:05:35 09:21:55 09:33:13 1
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:48:52 05:28:43 03:27:18 09:51:56 09:53:48 09:39:24 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:50:39 05:07:49 03:14:13 09:12:41 09:23:56 09:23:56 1

Results for Jessica Smith (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:54:00 05:07:30 03:27:13 09:34:45 09:49:12 09:49:12 12

Results for Bree Wee (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:54:57 04:56:26 03:36:50 09:34:41 09:59:58 09:58:45 6
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:57:54 05:24:28 03:24:48 09:52:23 09:53:27 09:58:26 22
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:55:32 05:22:21 03:26:17 09:50:35 09:53:42 09:59:33 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:52:43 05:07:34 03:45:08 09:49:19 09:58:13 10:01:09 8
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:46:39 05:17:18 03:37:32 09:45:24 09:51:46 10:02:08 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:55:47 05:24:06 03:33:04 09:57:49 09:52:54 10:06:28 17
IM Florida 2008-11-01 00:53:16 05:05:50 03:23:00 09:26:46 09:48:24 10:15:34 4
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:55:04 05:16:36 04:31:34 10:48:27 10:44:12 10:44:12 10

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 01:01:08 05:50:17 03:24:15 10:21:02 10:22:26 10:05:01 22
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:54:07 05:22:03 03:18:50 09:40:28 09:51:21 09:58:45 2
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 00:57:20 05:30:50 03:22:27 09:56:21 09:58:37 10:02:40 4
IM St. George 2011-05-07       10:06:36 10:06:58 10:06:58 2

Results for Terra Castro (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:54:56 05:19:48 03:20:28 09:39:35 09:54:06 10:18:16 4
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:57:41 05:21:21 03:37:39 10:02:40 10:13:58 10:23:15 5
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:59:36 05:22:52 03:49:16 10:16:27 10:30:10 10:25:27 13
IM St. George 2010-05-01 00:59:19 06:01:35 03:28:08 10:33:57 10:29:10 10:24:20 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 00:58:57 05:13:36 03:16:57 09:33:19 09:43:45 10:23:08 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 01:01:36 05:38:16 03:42:43 10:26:55 10:32:31 10:34:16 11
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 00:57:41 05:40:54 03:31:34 10:17:58 10:18:37 10:34:51 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 00:58:59 05:33:34 03:37:44 10:15:23 10:19:55 10:40:44 11
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 01:03:12 05:53:31 04:20:22 11:24:06 11:23:56 10:50:42 43
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 00:57:06 05:36:31 03:39:18 10:18:18 10:21:55 10:27:13 5
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 00:59:00 05:42:17 04:03:42 10:53:03 10:35:36 10:35:36 7

Results for April Lea Gellatly (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 01:01:31 05:40:46 03:41:02 10:28:52 10:33:33 10:33:50 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:50:59 05:34:51 03:30:39 10:01:40 10:08:13 10:33:59 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 00:56:49 05:45:14 03:50:54 10:38:05 10:38:34 10:53:47 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:57:54 05:25:42 07:07:21 13:38:21 13:48:54 13:00:16 16
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 00:59:18 05:52:25 04:44:32 11:44:40 11:28:36 11:28:36 13

Results for Tatiana Vertiz ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:54:48 05:34:32 03:38:34 10:15:06 10:30:30 10:57:09 9
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 11:19:14 11:32:40 11:32:40 13

Results for Amanda McKenzie (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 01:05:55 06:11:01 04:00:33 11:22:40 11:25:58 11:11:39 8
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 01:07:03 05:42:05 04:26:47 11:24:12 11:33:09 11:08:08 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29       10:37:24 11:01:31 11:00:11 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 00:56:33 05:27:47 04:08:51 10:33:12 10:53:14 10:59:46 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 01:04:15 05:36:20 03:54:35 10:41:45 10:45:36 11:01:46 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 01:02:18 05:11:35 03:51:11 10:09:38 10:32:54 11:07:02 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 01:02:51 05:44:48 04:19:42 11:13:05 11:21:41 11:18:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:55:13 05:40:19 04:10:35 10:53:05 11:02:01 11:17:31 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 01:00:49 05:44:15 04:06:32 10:56:14 10:58:22 11:29:01 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 01:00:10 06:26:14 05:07:21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

IM Canada 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Canada is one of the slower courses with a course rating of 3:14, just a little bit faster than Kona. Last years winners were Jordan Rapp (8:28:09) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13). The course records are held by Jordan Rapp (8:25:13, 2009) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13, 2011), with Meredith Kessler having the fastest swim I could find (49:59, 2010).

IM Canada is a “only” a 1.000 points race, and (together with IM Louisville) is the last chance to get qualifying points for Kona 2012.

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Jordan Rapp finally committed to race in Kona this year, so he is not back to defend his title. The highest ranked athlete on the start list is Christian Brader from Germany:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Christian Brader GER 08:57:42 09:00:56 143
2 Matthew Russell USA 09:02:22 09:05:38 173
3 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:12:17 09:15:37 241
4 Scott Curry CAN 09:12:21 09:15:41 242
5 Christopher Bagg USA 09:15:58 09:19:19 279
6 Olly Piggin CAN 09:22:23 09:25:46 326
7 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:23:11 09:26:34 331
8 Lewis Elliot USA 09:31:27 09:34:53 394
9 Anthony Toth CAN 09:34:21 09:37:48 410
10 Luke Way CAN 09:45:19 09:48:50 491
11 Andrew Powell   10:01:46 10:05:23 592
12 Ryan Borger   n/a unrated n/a
13 Nathan Killam   n/a unrated n/a
14 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
15 Derek Garcia   n/a unrated n/a

He’s also the one with the best winning odds:

  • Christian Brader: 33%
  • Matthew Russell: 17%
  • Kyle Marcotte: 15%
  • Christopher Bagg: 14%

Female Participants

On the female side, there two “big” names on the start list: Samantha McGlone (coming back from a long break) and Meredith Kessler.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Samantha McGlone USA 09:27:08 09:30:33 16
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:31:29 09:34:55 25
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:34:24 09:37:52 33
4 Janelle Morrison CAN 09:54:29 09:58:04 88
5 Paolina Allan CAN 10:05:09 10:08:48 121
6 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:14:15 10:17:57 155
7 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:17:20 10:21:03 167
8 Stephanie Ossenbrink CAN 10:24:00 10:27:45 186
9 Gillian Clayton CAN 10:25:49 10:29:35 190
10 Trish Deim USA 10:33:47 10:37:36 206
11 Alexis Smith   n/a unrated n/a
12 Brenda Lomax   n/a unrated n/a
13 Monica Dalidowicz   n/a unrated n/a

While Samantha has the better rating, “MBK” (coming off two IM wins this season) has better winning odds:

  • Meredith Kessler: 43%
  • Samantha McGlone: 33%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 19%

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