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Analysis

Kona 2012 Predictions: Running Strengths

As usual, the race will be decided on the run. Therefore, I’ve done some extended analysis on the athlete’s run performance. It will be no surprise that the athletes with the best odds (Crowie and Rinnie) are also the best runners in the field. Here is a closer look at the data on athlete’s running strengths.

Run Rating

Looking at the individual run results, I’ve come up with some rating-like assessment of athlete’s run leg during an Ironman triathlon. The following tables list the main contenders and some other athletes that might be in a good position during the race.

I’m listing three different times:

  • The average run time (across all courses)
  • The average time for a Kona run (for all Kona races, empty if no Kona race so far)
  • The Run PR (regardless of the course it was run)

Men

By all numbers, Crowie is the strongest runner in the field. It remains to be seen if Macca’s Olympic training has given him an extra edge – I’m sure that he believes he can beat Crowie on the run.

Name Avg Run Kona Run Run PR
Craig Alexander 02:45:37 02:44:52 02:38:46
Paul Matthews 02:47:24 02:47:24
Andreas Raelert 02:47:47 02:47:46 02:40:52
Marino Vanhoenacker 02:51:59 02:56:17 02:39:24
Eneko Llanos 02:51:44 02:54:08 02:43:46
Sebastian Kienle 02:52:19 02:50:17
Timo Bracht 02:52:52 02:57:54 02:43:33
Dirk Bockel 02:53:57 02:54:16 02:51:56
David Dellow 02:54:38 02:45:05
Michael Raelert 02:54:40 02:54:40
Faris Al-Sultan 02:57:04 02:59:19 02:50:38
Jordan Rapp 02:57:17 02:46:55
Chris McCormack 02:50:02 02:47:21 02:42:02
Cameron Brown 02:52:09 02:58:40 02:41:17
Daniel Fontana 03:01:56 03:04:04 02:58:23
Andy Potts 02:57:08 02:59:17 02:52:15
Rasmus Henning 02:58:40 03:03:21 02:39:43
Joe Gambles 03:00:36 03:12:56 02:54:02
Pete Jacobs 02:57:02 02:50:08 02:41:06
Luke McKenzie 03:10:58 03:13:10 02:51:38

Women

On the women’s side, the numbers show that Rinnie is by far the best runner in the field. There are a few athletes that have a better potential than the average numbers indicate – Caroline Steffen, Bek Keat and Leanda Cave come to mind.

Name Avg Run Kona Run Run PR
Mirinda Carfrae 02:56:25 02:54:11 02:52:09
Mary Beth Ellis 03:09:59 03:13:48 03:01:29
Caroline Steffen 03:19:49 03:10:32 03:01:22
Rachel Joyce 03:18:57 03:14:55 02:59:53
Sonja Tajsich 03:08:28 03:09:56 02:55:43
Amy Marsh 03:21:51 03:25:25 03:11:19
Rebekah Keat 03:11:54 03:18:22 02:55:28
Linsey Corbin 03:10:25 03:13:57 03:02:27
Leanda Cave 03:23:06 03:24:11 02:58:51
Kelly Williamson 03:08:59 03:07:18 03:03:33
Tine Deckers 03:21:13 03:27:52 03:02:31
Meredith Kessler 03:19:55 03:28:11 03:10:14
Anja Beranek 03:20:44 03:18:06
Michelle Vesterby 03:21:17 03:20:16
Amanda Stevens 03:29:50 03:32:47 03:23:41

Playing with Numbers: Standing before Run

If I take the predicted finish time (based on the ratings and the Kona course rating) and the run times (I’m using the lower of the average and Kona Run times), I can speculate on the standing before the run. Of course, this is just playing with the numbers and does not take real race dynamics into account, but I think some speculation is still interesting.

Men

In the last years it was Chris Lieto who was the front-runner coming off the bike. I’m sure that a lot of athletes would like to take that spot this year – but I don’t really see Marino as the one leading off the bike, even if that’s what the numbers say. The next spots show a pretty large group of athletes including Andreas Raelert, Jordan Rapp, Dirk Bockel, Faris Al-Sultan and Crowie. If Timo Bracht ends up in that group as well, he’ll have a great chance for a podium finish. Maybe the presence of Jordan Rapp will help him make that front group this year. I would also think that Sebastian Kienle will use his bike strength to bike into the front group, and he may even be the athlete off the front. Also, Chris McCormack will do his utmost to be in that front group, maybe even a few minutes ahead of Crowie. Maybe he can round up a few other athletes (as he did when winning in 2010) who help him trying to break Crowie …

# Name Before Run
1 Marino Vanhoenacker 05:26:33
2 Andreas Raelert 05:29:15
3 Paul Matthews 05:29:24
4 Jordan Rapp 05:29:58
5 Dirk Bockel 05:30:02
6 Faris Al-Sultan 05:30:04
7 Daniel Fontana 05:30:05
8 Craig Alexander 05:30:51
9 Timo Bracht 05:30:56
10 Sebastian Kienle 05:31:23
11 David Dellow 05:31:24
12 Eneko Llanos 05:31:28
13 Michael Raelert 05:32:22
14 Joe Gambles 05:33:38
Rasmus Henning 05:34:31
Luke McKenzie 05:35:17
Andy Potts 05:35:20
Cameron Brown 05:36:50
Chris McCormack 05:41:11
Pete Jacobs 05:50:44

Women

On the women’s side, my numbers predict Amy Marsh leading off the bike. The real story, however, will be how far back Rinnie is going to be (I have her 13 minutes behind and not even in the TOP10 after the bike) and how far ahead of her Caroline Steffen is going to be. If it’s really going to be 8 minutes, Rinnie has to come up with one of her best runs in order to win again in Kona. Also, one of the other girls should be able to come up with a run a bit better than her Run Rating – maybe Mary Beth (being a bit more rested this year), Rachel or Leanda. I think that the race will be decided after the Energy Lab – maybe we’ll have a female version of Mark Allen running down Thomas Hellriegel from 1995 (he was 13 minutes after the bike).

# Name Before Run
1 Amy Marsh 06:04:44
2 Mary Beth Ellis 06:06:16
3 Rachel Joyce 06:06:26
4 Leanda Cave 06:07:46
5 Caroline Steffen 06:09:33
6 Tine Deckers 06:14:05
7 Rebekah Keat 06:14:58
8 Michelle Vesterby 06:16:14
9 Anja Beranek 06:16:19
10 Meredith Kessler 06:16:49
11 Amanda Stevens 06:17:32
12 Mirinda Carfrae 06:17:50
Sonja Tajsich 06:18:06
Linsey Corbin 06:18:34
Kelly Williamson 06:25:04

Run Comparison Charts

The following tables show the projected time after T2, the Run Rating and the total finishing time. In a row, a positive number means that the athlete has to be ahead of the other athlete, a negative number that he can afford to be behind.

Men

RunMatrix Men

As the strongest runner in the field, Crowie can afford to give up more than two minutes to every athlete and still expect to win the race. (For example, he can be 8 minutes behind Timo Bracht after T2 and they would be even at the end of the race.)

This table also shows that if Macca or Pete Jacobs make it into T2 close to the front group, they have a good chance for a podium spot or even winning the race.

Women

Run Matrix Women

Again, it is amazing to see how better Rinnie’s Run Rating is compared to the rest of the field. Based on the numbers, she can give up more than 15 minutes to everyone! As noted earlier, this number may be a bit misleading. The rest of the field is much closer together, and a lot will ride on who’s having a good day in the Kona heat.

Kona Strength: Who is racing well in Kona?

My ratings are a course-independent number, so they don’t give a complete picture of how an athlete is going to do in Kona. By comparing the relative performances in Kona and on other courses, I can determine athletes who are racing well in Kona and those that struggle on Hawaii. I’m expressing this number – the “Kona Strength” – as the time difference between the expected result (based on the athlete’s rating before the race) and the actual result (finishing time adjusted for the course and conditions on race day). For example, Caroline Steffen has a Kona Strength of 24:29 – this means that here results in Kona have been more than 24 minutes faster than her rating predicted. A Kona Strength of 0 shows that an athlete is not racing faster or slower in Kona than their rating predicts, and a negative number (e.g. -31:18 by Meredith Kessler) shows that the athlete has struggled in Kona. I’ve added a number to show how many Kona results the Kona Strength is based on – one race may always be a fluke (so maybe the one result by Meredith Kessler was not caused by the Kona heat and she’s going to do much better this year).

Good Kona Results

Here is a list of athletes that have races well in Kona:

  • Caroline Steffen 24:29 (2)
  • Pete Jacobs 22:34 (4)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 21:26 (3)
  • Caitlin Snow 18:07 (4)
  • Rachel Joyce 14:15 (3)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 10:09 (4)
  • Craig Alexander 09:05 (5)

Inferior Kona Results

The following athletes have struggled in their Kona races:

  • Meredith Kessler -31:18 (1)
  • Jan Raphael -25:35 (3)
  • Rebekah Keat -16:50 (2)
  • Linsey Corbin -12:09 (5)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker -09:34 (4)
Jan Raphael has declined his Kona slot (he qualified late in the year in Sweden), he wants to get his bad Kona results out of his mind before trying again. 

New to Kona

There are also a few athletes that haven’t yet raced in Kona. Usually, these athletes should race a bit conservatively and build some experience in the Kona conditions:

  • Jordan Rapp
  • Trevor Wurtele
  • David Dellow
  • Sebastian Kienle
  • Michael Raelert
  • Greg Bennett
  • Michelle Gailey
  • Michelle Vesterby
This post is an excerpt from my Kona Rating Report. You can receive your copy by using this link to subscribe to my email list.

IM Wales 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

After last year’s really slow initial race, this year the conditions were more “average”: The race adjustment was 1:08, leading to a new course rating of -5:55. The bike times seem really slow (apparently there was a lot of wind and rain), but the run times were quick. I haven’t heard any statements on how accurate the course was, but the numbers seem a bit suspicious.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Sylvain Rota FRA 00:48:12 05:04:16 02:52:42 08:52:43 09:02:41
2 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 00:47:13 05:13:15 02:48:05 08:55:20 08:58:15
3 Christian Ritter GER 00:45:07 05:17:36 02:48:26 08:58:49 08:46:32
4 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:44:07 05:15:50 02:54:59 09:02:13 08:56:12
5 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:48:17 05:14:42 03:01:01 09:12:21 09:42:50
6 Michael Wetzel GER 00:51:18 05:20:47 02:55:28 09:15:12 09:08:26
7

Andi Fuchs

AUT 00:52:17 05:10:29 03:05:07 09:16:09 n/a
8 Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:47:17 05:30:55 02:52:25 09:21:25 10:24:18
9 Nikolaus Wihlidal AUT 00:49:44 05:28:52 02:55:21 09:22:04 n/a
10 Paul Hawkins GBR 00:47:18 05:27:45 03:00:24 09:23:25 09:21:29
11 Rafael Gomes POR 00:49:30 05:32:47 02:58:15 09:29:09 09:42:35
12 Joni Pinosto FIN 00:52:30 05:30:47 03:10:42 09:42:07 n/a
13 Matjaz Kovac SVN 00:51:20 05:37:48 03:06:21 09:43:51 09:55:56
14 Martin Cain GBR 00:51:28 05:30:22 03:27:50 09:58:21 09:30:34
15 Markus Lichtenegger AUT 00:55:44 05:49:15 03:03:04 09:59:48 09:39:58
16 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:44:07 05:33:54 04:08:41 10:35:30 n/a
17 Florian Kratz GER 00:58:06 06:37:01 03:18:49 11:04:37 10:31:42

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:51:29 05:34:35 03:09:48 09:45:09 09:51:46
2 Eimear Mullan IRL 00:53:41 05:54:57 03:04:14 10:01:32 10:07:43
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:57:38 05:55:01 03:09:12 10:12:34 10:26:58
4 Kristin Lie NOR 01:03:00 05:53:11 03:10:42 10:16:27 10:07:03
5 Hillary Biscay USA 00:48:13 06:08:23 03:11:11 10:18:57 10:11:57
6 Jackie Pearce CAN 00:55:52 06:12:09 03:24:17 10:44:05 10:18:30
7 Bethan Fowler GBR 00:57:15 06:19:28 03:27:14 10:52:53 11:45:57
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 01:00:05 06:48:47 03:33:24 11:38:10 11:07:47

Kona 2012 Qualification: August Update on KPR Standings

At the time that I’m writing this article, all the races offering KPR points for Kona 2012 have been completed and WTC has updated their rankings to show which PROs have already accepted or declined their July slots and which PROs will be able to claim the remaining August slots.

Athletes who have declined their July slots and those that got a roll-down slot

There are not too many PROs that have declined their Kona slot:

  • Carrie Lester (AUS)
    I don’t know why Carrie turned down her slot.
  • Corinne Abraham (GBR)
    She posted her reasons on her blog. Basically, she wants to race some more races in 2012, and feels that Kona would end her season and thus does not make sense from a business perspective.
  • Raynard Tissink (ZAF)
    As I understand it, Raynard ended his professional triathlon career after Kona 2011. He raced IM South Africa 2012 “for fun” (validating his slot), but is not interested in racing Kona 2012.

The roll down went to the following athletes (points are from end of July, they may have changed by now by including additional results):

  • Sara Gross (CAN) 4.415 points
  • Mareen Hufe (GER) 4.400 points
  • Michael Raelert (GER) 3.830 points

Athletes eligible for an August slot

In August there are five more women that will get a Kona slot:

  • Rebekah Keat (AUS) 6.630 points
  • Amy Marsh (USA) 6.615 points
  • Sarah Piampiano (USA) 6.405 points
  • Michelle Gailey (AUS) 5.540 points
  • Emi Sakai (JAP) 5.040 points

On the men’s side, we have the following ten athletes:

  • Jordan Rapp (USA) 6.000 points
  • Jozsef Major (HUN) 5.920 points
  • Maxim Kriat (UKR) 5.720 points
  • Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 5.020 points
  • Jan Raphael (GER) 4.800 points
  • Andi Böcherer (GER) 4.770 points
  • Pedro Gomes (PRT) 4.710 points
  • Markus Thomschke (GER) 4.600 points
  • Jason Shortis (AUS) 4.380 points
  • Bart Aernouts (BEL) 4.210 points

Some of these athletes may decline their slots, so there may be some roll down. The first athletes that may get a slot that way are Tamara Kozulina (UKR, 5.020 points) and Christian Brader (GER, 3.820 points).

Updated Kona 2012 Odds (after July races)

Now that the July races are over and the first round of Kona qualifiers has been decided, it is time to update the Kona odds.

Men

Some of the top contenders validated their Kona slots in the July races.

Kona2012MenOdds

The main changes are a consequence of the following results:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker won IM Frankfurt, putting him into a solid statistical 2nd biggest favorite for Kona.
  • Andreas Raelert had a sub-standard (for him) results in Frankfurt, so his statistical chances decreased a bit.
  • Cam Brown’s chances decreased a bit – even though he posted a solid result in Roth, it was not on the “winning Kona” level.

Women

There were a few changes on the women’s side as well:

Kona2012WomenOdds

 

Here are the main events resulting in changes:

  • Caroline Steffen won IM Frankfurt in convincing fashion, further closing the gap to Rinnie.
  • Rachel Joyce also had a great result winning in Roth. Maybe she can continue the British dominance in Kona?
  • I finally had to remove Cat Morrison from my Kona odds – she is recovering from an injury and is not going to be able to qualify for Kona 2012. Hopefully she’s going to come back stronger than ever and will be able to play a role in the next years.
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